Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, April 19th
Today’s open has really nothing to do with this article, but potentially more about the way we should be thinking about offensive lineup construction going forward. I wanted to talk about a phenomenon we’re suddenly seeing in Cincinnati, in how the Reds are using their bullpen. It didn’t happen last night because the game was a blowout, but they’ve turned a relative joke into a strength this year, by converting a couple of unfit starters (Lorenzen and Iglesias) into long relief weapons. They’re not using them as traditional long relievers though. These guys are entering in the highest leverage situations and pitching for multiple innings.
There’s only one Andrew Miller, but this is the model based on his usage last post-season. It’s not a contender that’s copying it, but rather a team that was desperate and had nothing to lose, although the Astros are doing it to great success with Chris Devenski too. They have little strength in their rotation or bullpen, so they took the best of what they had and converted them to one time through the lineup guys, which then became a strength. They’re effectively closers who might enter anywhere from the third through the ninth inning.
Yesterday Bronson Arroyo started. They knew he was weakness. He was gone after five innings and 82 pitches, before he could do much damage and with his team well ahead. They didn’t even have to use their top two guys last night, which means both are probably available for multiple innings tonight. What does that mean for you? You’re setting up for and I’m writing about Amir Garret, but in a close game now, he might not even get through the lineup twice.
It’s called bullpenning and Brian Kenny loves it. When it becomes successful and more popular, it’s going to have to change the way we think about DFS too. Knowledge of the bullpen and who’s available out of it on any given day may end up being just as important as who is starting.
There’s probably enough for an entirely separate article here, but it’s something I’ve been thinking about this week and decided to unload on a day without an introductory idea. We’re listing all 15 games today with notes on the 11 game night slate.
We’re now up to date on all stats except for team defense, which I’m confident we’ll see next week.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | -5.8 | 6.39 | 3.1 | 37.5% | 1.04 | 5.01 | 6.21 | CLE | 104 | 82 | 134 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.4 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 47.1% | 1.02 | 3.6 | BAL | 126 | 87 | 140 | |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -1.4 | 3.33 | 6.18 | 46.5% | 0.96 | 3.26 | 3.62 | DET | 106 | 105 | 109 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.3 | 2.29 | 7.11 | 49.7% | 0.89 | 2.25 | 2.58 | COL | 88 | 97 | 52 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.2 | 3.21 | 6.78 | 59.6% | 0.94 | 3.22 | 2.44 | ANA | 57 | 73 | 43 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 3.3 | 6.01 | 5.1 | 61.1% | 1.01 | 5.41 | 6.01 | NYY | 129 | 125 | 125 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 2.8 | 4.53 | 5.69 | 48.7% | 0.89 | 4.61 | 3.82 | SEA | 126 | 97 | 118 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -4.3 | 3.89 | 6.34 | 53.0% | 0.89 | 4.18 | 3.36 | FLA | 86 | 98 | 81 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 2.2 | 3.89 | 5.69 | 51.3% | 1.03 | 3.92 | 4.07 | BOS | 107 | 97 | 129 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.8 | 3.67 | 6.11 | 46.9% | 0.98 | 3.86 | 4.07 | STL | 66 | 72 | 60 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 4.9 | 4 | 4.93 | 40.7% | 1.06 | 3.26 | 2.51 | SFO | 99 | 98 | 62 |
| J.C. Ramirez | ANA | 6.5 | 4.09 | 5. | 52.1% | 0.94 | 4.37 | 3.81 | HOU | 110 | 129 | 139 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -8.3 | 4.41 | 5.71 | 50.1% | 0.93 | 4.15 | 3.79 | TEX | 84 | 97 | 75 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -5.9 | 4.41 | 5.31 | 48.4% | 0.91 | 3.81 | 4.35 | ARI | 72 | 117 | 72 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 1.1 | 3.9 | 5.57 | 45.5% | 1 | 3.92 | ATL | 114 | 99 | 116 | |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -5.1 | 4.2 | 6. | 41.9% | 0.96 | 4.37 | 6.12 | TAM | 124 | 100 | 109 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -0.9 | 4.08 | 6.19 | 39.0% | 1 | 3.98 | 4.61 | WAS | 108 | 112 | 73 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 9.1 | 3.54 | 5.94 | 49.9% | 0.96 | 3.07 | 3.8 | MIL | 126 | 95 | 124 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 4.8 | 3.12 | 6.8 | 40.6% | 1.06 | 3.53 | 3.51 | KAN | 70 | 47 | 84 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 1.9 | 4.83 | 5.86 | 54.6% | 0.93 | 5.02 | 5 | OAK | 101 | 64 | 97 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.8 | 3.63 | 6.4 | 47.7% | 1.01 | 3.48 | 4.51 | CHW | 68 | 68 | 72 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -5.3 | 4.1 | 5.78 | 45.5% | 0.98 | 3.73 | 2.97 | PIT | 75 | 95 | 98 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.1 | 3.74 | 6.41 | 43.5% | 1.03 | 3.83 | 3.35 | TOR | 87 | 57 | 96 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.58 | 53.6% | 0.91 | 3.02 | 3.58 | PHI | 79 | 94 | 69 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | -7.2 | 4.45 | 5.23 | 0.426 | 0.96 | 4.53 | 4.52 | CHC | 97 | 149 | 102 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.4 | 4.22 | 5.98 | 0.442 | 1.04 | 3.86 | 2.82 | MIN | 106 | 102 | 104 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | -3.1 | 3.93 | 5.86 | 0.491 | 0.89 | 3.67 | 4.44 | LOS | 129 | 81 | 95 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -3.2 | 4.34 | 5.51 | 0.478 | 1.02 | 4.92 | 4.8 | CIN | 101 | 106 | 107 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 1.9 | 3.61 | 5.39 | 0.337 | 0.91 | 3.98 | 3.16 | NYM | 64 | 65 | 73 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -6.1 | 3.67 | 6.53 | 0.47 | 0.91 | 3.47 | 3.55 | SDG | 97 | 88 | 77 |
Amir Garret is a decently regarded arm, who can miss a few bats and has pitched well in his first two major league starts. The concern had been a walk rate above 9% at every stop of the minors, but he’s walked just two of the 46 batters he’s faced so far. He’s gone six innings in each of his starts, but he’s facing a tough Baltimore lineup tonight and the Reds did not use either of their multiple inning bullpen weapons last night.
Chris Archer is running a bit opposite to how he did last April. He hasn’t allowed a HR and is stranding 79.2% of his runners, while his strikeout rate is just average. In fairness, he did have a SwStr above 11% in each of his first two starts, while an 8.8% against Boston is somewhat of a win. His 32% hard contact rate is the same as last year, though his aEV is just 87.6 mph, while he hasn’t met a barrel yet. After throwing 13 changeups in his first start, he’s gone back to strictly fastball/slider in the next two, so we can’t site any real changes. He’s got another tough matchup against Detroit tonight, but the Tigers will strike out a bit more than Boston and the home environment is in his favor.
Clayton Kershaw has just a 9.5 SwStr% and he’s faced the bottom of the NL West, though one of those starts was in Colorado, where he had a 7.0 SwStr%. He’s been above 10% in the other two, although still not up to his usual standards. In Kershaw we trust. He still has a 26.6 K-BB%. Facing the Rockies at home is about as far a jump as you can get from facing them at Coors. Seriously, it’s going from the highest run scoring environment (39% above average) to the lowest one (11% below average).
Dallas Keuchel had an extremely generous called strike zone last time out. In fact, it kind of looked like his beard. The bigger point to take away from that is that he continues to keep the ball down and out of the middle of the strike zone and continues to have excellent results to start the season. Sure, there’s an unsustainable .113 BABIP and 100% strand rate, but he’s missing bats at around a league average rate and when he’s not, 73.1% of his contact has been on the ground (in a year when ground balls are down significantly) with a -18.2 Hard-Soft%. He’s locating perfectly and dominating on contact. He won’t stay this hot, but he could be returning to 2015 form. The Angels have been terrible in a small sample size on the road and against LHP thus far.
Jason Vargas has struck out 14 of 50 batters on a 13.1 SwStr% and at a time when everyone’s ground ball rate is down, a career fly ball generator is inducing 50% of his contact on the ground all of a sudden. He’s doubled his two seam usage at the cost of his four seamer, but hasn’t otherwise messed with his secondary stuff and is still throwing 87 mph. It’s difficult to see what he’s doing different, but it’s worked so far. He faced the Giants tonight, a neutral offense so far that’s been striking out a bit more often than usual.
Madison Bumgarner has not sustained the velocity increase from his first start, but is still pitching as well as he normally does (24.4 K-BB%), although his hard contact rate has gone up. It’s been at least 50% in two of his three starts, though he struck out at least one-third of batters faced in those two starts. He should dominate a Kansas City lineup that struggles to generate hard contact and now strikes out a bit more than when he faced them in the post-season.
Masahiro Tanaka has not gotten on track yet. Although he’s missing an extraordinary number of bats, it hasn’t translated to his strikeout rate because he’s walking so many batters. His walk rate has nearly tripled so far. He’s actually throwing more pitches in the strike zone because he has to. Batters aren’t swinging at pitches out of the zone as much (O-Swing% down five points) and he’s falling behind early (57.1 F-Strike% down six to seven points). Against better offenses, this may remain a problem. I’m not sure the White Sox have the discipline to continue to make him pay.
Robert Gsellman has allowed 11 runs in 9.2 innings in two starts, walking 10% of batters with a 40.6 Hard%. You may want to skip ahead right now because I’m going to start making excuses. The defense is a mess and can be directly implicated in a number of runs he allowed in his last start. They were all earned due to favorable home scoring in Miami and he’s run into a red hot Marcell Ozuna twice (he hit both HRs off him). The stuff has otherwise been very good. His fastball had a lot of movement in his last start and it was more poor pitch choice than actual stuff that got him in trouble. D’arnaud called for a fastball on the outside corner on one pitch that moved so much it ended up back over the middle of the plate and was smoked. The stuff has to be good to strike out over a quarter of the batters he’s faced and he’s generated a grounder on 51.6% of batted balls. There’s still some good stuff here. He has the highest negative gap between his ERA and estimators on the board (nearly six runs). I’m still aboard this train, especially against the Phillies.
Trevor Bauer has allowed 10 runs and three HRs in two starts with barrels met on 10% of his BBE. However, he’s struck out 13 of 48 batters with just two walks and ERA estimators separated by more than five runs in some cases. Three of his four estimators are below three. His underlying batted ball numbers are not at all different aside from the HRs and his 22.9 K-BB% nearly doubles his previous seasons. I don’t expect him to hold any of this, but it’s been much worse than expected results due to the HRs, a .400 BABIP and 54.7 LOB%. Minnesota has been a better offense than projected in a friendlier run environment than most people realize.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Julio Teheran (.294 – 84% – 0) is still missing bats at a league average rate, but has walked 10.5% of batters so far. The contact has been great (85 mph aEV, -2.0 Hard-Soft%, no Barrels). He’s not going to continue stranding so many runners though and the HRs are going to come eventually. He’s not showing enough upside right now and the walks are a problem against an above average offense tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Vince Velasquez is one of several starters separated from their estimators by well over five runs in the early going. He’s struck out 17 of the 44 batters he’s faced, so why wouldn’t he have reasonable estimators? Well, he’s also walked seven and allowed three HRs, running up 100 pitches in five innings or less twice. He certainly has an immense amount of upside, but didn’t often reach it even last season contrary to popular belief. It’s just that his few great starts were great so people may think it happened more often. He exceeded seven strikeouts just three times after his first two starts, in which he accumulated 25. He also generates fewer ground balls than any pitcher on the slate (33.7% career) and that could be a major issue if he’s all over the place again. $9.4K on DraftKings is a lot to ask here, while even $7.8K may be difficult when looking for a quality start.
Zack Greinke has really had just one good start. It looks like he’s going to have to learn to pitch with reduced velocity and for some pitchers that takes a while. That while may sometimes take seasons, while some are never able to figure it out. He’s a smart guy, so I wouldn’t bet against him being a good pitcher again at some point, but he’s not someone I want to pay more than $8.5K for, even in a great matchup in San Diego tonight.
Tyler Anderson got his ground ball rate up to 50% and had a hard hit rate below 35% both for the first time in his last start, but generated just three swinging strikes. We would have been jumping all over him in Dodger Stadium in 2016, but he seems to be a different pitcher and I’m not sure what to think of him so far. The Dodgers can/should be better against LHP this year, but haven’t shown that so far.
Rick Porcello is not having a problem missing bats. His 17.7 K-BB% is virtually the same as last year and, in fact, his SwStr rate is up 50%. However, his HR problems have cropped up again. He’s been less of a ground ball generators since moving to Boston, but he’s down to 38.6% this year and his contact in the air is being smoked (45.6 Hard%, 17.9% Barrels/BBE). The Toronto offense has been a mess (16.0 K-BB%, 5.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but are expected to be much better. Players are being asked to pay an absurd $10.9K on DraftKings, probably still primarily based on his 22 Wins last year.
Joe Ross did not fare well in his first short rehab start at AAA, but went seven shutout innings with six strikeouts in his second one. There may be some caution with him here and the Atlanta offense has not been bad. Most of their best hitters are LH, a side which has a .354 career wOBA against him with just a 36.4 GB%.
Francisco Liriano was bad Liriano (four walks, one strikeout) and then he was good Liriano (two walks, 10 strikeouts). However, in both starts, he allowed hard contact on more than 45% of batted balls with very little contact on the ground. His aEV is 96 mph! Despite the upside, there’s no need to mess with him in Boston tonight.
Jordan Zimmermann is in a high strikeout spot, but does not miss bats at all anymore. I have no idea what DRA has seen that it likes so much in him so far. He walked five last time out.
Jhoulys Chacin had one strong start at home against San Francisco, but failed to strikeout more batters than he’s walked in the two surrounding it and has a SwStr below 5%.
Ubaldo Jimenez is going to pitch one of these days…unfortunately for Baltimore fans.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 9.3% | 14.0% | Home | 20.0% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 19.6% | 4.4% | Home | L14 Days | 19.6% | 4.4% | ||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 27.9% | 7.8% | Home | 28.7% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 9.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 3.4% | Home | 32.1% | 1.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 1.8% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.0% | Home | 20.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 5.9% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 4.6% | 13.6% | Road | 4.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 13.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.5% | 8.9% | Road | 15.7% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 10.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.0% | 8.0% | Home | 19.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 0.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.8% | 10.5% | Home | 24.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 17.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.9% | Road | 19.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 5.7% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 20.3% | 6.4% | Home | 25.4% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| J.C. Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 16.7% | 7.6% | Road | 14.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.0% | 7.3% | Home | 15.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 18.5% | 8.9% | Home | 20.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.6% | Road | 22.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.1% | 5.5% | Road | 16.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.2% | Home | 23.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.7% | 5.9% | Home | 24.0% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 6.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.8% | 5.3% | Road | 27.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 5.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.0% | 8.8% | Road | 11.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.6% | Home | 23.0% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.6% | Home | 20.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 6.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.0% | 4.3% | Road | 21.7% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 5.7% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 23.4% | 8.5% | Home | 24.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 10.9% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 6.3% | Road | 15.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 2.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.4% | 9.1% | Road | 21.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 4.2% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.4% | 6.3% | Road | 20.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.7% | Road | 18.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 27.5% | 8.8% | Road | 23.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 38.6% | 15.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.0% | 5.5% | Road | 23.3% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 16.8% | 8.1% | LH | 16.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.8% | 6.0% | LH | 23.6% | 5.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.4% | 10.8% | RH | 24.1% | 11.0% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 22.3% | 7.8% | LH | 24.9% | 4.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Road | 23.5% | 8.0% | LH | 21.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.0% | 11.7% | RH | 20.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 16.9% | 8.6% | RH | 21.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.1% | 5.9% | RH | 23.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.1% | 8.8% | LH | 15.6% | 12.8% | L7Days | 14.8% | 7.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.8% | 10.9% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 23.4% | 6.2% |
| Giants | Road | 21.2% | 8.2% | LH | 21.4% | 10.7% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.5% | 7.7% | RH | 17.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.9% | 10.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.1% | 9.2% | RH | 25.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 10.4% |
| Braves | Home | 17.4% | 9.0% | RH | 20.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Home | 24.6% | 12.0% | RH | 28.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 31.2% | 8.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 24.7% | 10.7% | RH | 19.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.0% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.8% | 6.8% | RH | 26.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Royals | Home | 22.8% | 8.4% | LH | 24.8% | 10.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 25.6% | 8.9% | LH | 21.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.3% | 4.5% | RH | 25.2% | 5.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 18.3% | 6.3% | RH | 14.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 24.2% | 7.4% | RH | 23.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.3% | 8.7% | RH | 23.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.4% | 9.7% | LH | 17.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Home | 20.4% | 13.1% | RH | 20.4% | 11.2% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.9% | 11.8% | LH | 22.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Home | 18.6% | 6.9% | RH | 17.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.0% | 7.8% |
| Mets | Home | 22.3% | 9.2% | RH | 24.5% | 10.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.7% |
| Padres | Home | 15.6% | 10.9% | RH | 22.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 28.1% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 2017 | 20.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% | Home | 15.4% | 0.0% | -7.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 32.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 2017 | 32.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | Home | L14 Days | 32.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | |||
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.5% | 12.6% | 15.1% | 2017 | 32.2% | 0.0% | 16.9% | Home | 31.9% | 9.6% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 2017 | 39.3% | 18.2% | 19.7% | Home | 27.8% | 3.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 25.0% | 15.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 24.9% | 15.3% | 1.1% | 2017 | 14.6% | 18.2% | -18.1% | Home | 26.4% | 12.3% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 33.3% | -24.3% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% | 2017 | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% | Road | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -5.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 2017 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 26.7% | Road | 33.7% | 18.1% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 25.0% | 27.3% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 26.2% | 15.3% | 8.6% | 2017 | 19.3% | 21.4% | 0.0% | Home | 30.6% | 13.3% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 9.1% | -2.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.1% | 15.2% | 7.8% | 2017 | 47.1% | 14.3% | 41.2% | Home | 36.1% | 12.7% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 14.3% | 41.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.4% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 2017 | 38.3% | 15.0% | 20.0% | Road | 31.9% | 6.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 13.3% | 4.9% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 33.7% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 2017 | 26.5% | 0.0% | 5.9% | Home | 34.2% | 0.0% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| J.C. Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 28.9% | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2017 | 34.3% | 20.0% | 8.6% | Road | 28.0% | 18.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 6.6% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.4% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | Home | 30.3% | 17.9% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 32.9% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 2017 | 34.6% | 11.8% | 21.1% | Home | 26.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.8% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 2017 | Road | 31.9% | 9.8% | 18.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 2017 | 43.8% | 5.9% | 28.2% | Road | 20.4% | 5.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 5.9% | 28.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 2017 | 19.6% | 0.0% | -2.0% | Home | 32.7% | 9.8% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.3% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 2017 | 44.1% | 16.7% | 20.6% | Home | 26.7% | 6.0% | 1.1% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 16.7% | 20.6% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 29.8% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 37.9% | 8.7% | 17.2% | Road | 33.5% | 13.9% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 5.9% | 7.2% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 2017 | 39.6% | 16.7% | 20.8% | Road | 34.4% | 10.8% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.1% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2017 | 23.4% | 18.8% | 2.1% | Home | 34.2% | 14.3% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 8.3% | -14.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 13.3% | 6.2% | Home | 33.5% | 11.8% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.3% | 6.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 2017 | 45.6% | 20.8% | 24.5% | Road | 29.4% | 11.8% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 33.3% | 35.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 30.8% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 2017 | 40.6% | 20.0% | 18.7% | Home | 30.2% | 5.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 22.2% | 17.2% |
| Tommy Milone | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 25.6% | 14.3% | -7.0% | Road | 34.4% | 20.8% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 16.7% | -5.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.7% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 2017 | 30.3% | 30.0% | 15.1% | Road | 30.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 30.0% | 15.1% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.0% | 5.1% | 2017 | 37.5% | 23.5% | 12.5% | Road | 27.6% | 17.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 23.5% | 12.5% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.3% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 35.3% | 23.1% | 14.7% | Road | 29.4% | 8.5% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 23.1% | 14.7% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 2017 | 42.1% | 37.5% | 26.3% | Road | 33.2% | 14.3% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 37.5% | 26.3% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 2017 | 39.6% | 5.6% | 22.6% | Road | 26.3% | 15.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 0.0% | 29.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | Road | 40.1% | 11.0% | 25.6% | LH | 38.3% | 7.1% | 22.7% | L7Days | 35.0% | 14.7% | 17.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.2% | 20.0% | 17.6% | LH | 34.8% | 13.9% | 16.9% | L7Days | 37.6% | 23.0% | 18.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 37.2% | 17.0% | 19.6% | RH | 45.8% | 14.5% | 30.4% | L7Days | 44.7% | 18.6% | 27.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 32.3% | 12.0% | 7.8% | LH | 37.2% | 20.4% | 16.3% | L7Days | 33.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% |
| Angels | Road | 28.6% | 6.5% | 10.2% | LH | 30.1% | 4.8% | 17.8% | L7Days | 28.6% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.3% | 16.2% | 10.8% | RH | 31.5% | 13.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.3% | 13.8% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.3% | 11.8% | 8.0% | RH | 25.5% | 10.6% | 4.2% | L7Days | 31.0% | 15.8% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | RH | 34.3% | 14.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 29.1% | 16.1% | 5.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 46.5% | 3.8% | 26.8% | LH | 42.3% | 4.8% | 21.8% | L7Days | 36.5% | 5.9% | 15.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.9% | 6.3% | 3.1% | RH | 23.7% | 11.5% | 4.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 12.2% | 14.7% |
| Giants | Road | 32.7% | 13.0% | 15.7% | LH | 31.8% | 18.9% | 12.9% | L7Days | 22.8% | 4.4% | -0.6% |
| Astros | Home | 27.4% | 17.3% | 6.0% | RH | 29.6% | 14.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 30.9% | 9.8% | 13.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.7% | 9.6% | 5.1% | RH | 31.9% | 13.9% | 14.4% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% | RH | 35.3% | 12.9% | 20.0% | L7Days | 30.6% | 10.2% | 11.8% |
| Braves | Home | 34.4% | 17.6% | 19.1% | RH | 32.1% | 11.7% | 16.6% | L7Days | 34.6% | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| Rays | Home | 30.8% | 15.4% | 8.7% | RH | 31.6% | 17.1% | 12.7% | L7Days | 37.8% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 28.9% | 10.5% | 14.5% | RH | 29.5% | 11.7% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.4% | 5.7% | 6.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 31.0% | 23.0% | 12.2% | RH | 32.0% | 21.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 30.5% | 23.4% | 10.2% |
| Royals | Home | 26.9% | 8.7% | 2.9% | LH | 21.2% | 11.8% | -9.1% | L7Days | 26.6% | 9.7% | 2.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 26.1% | 15.9% | 4.9% | LH | 26.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 11.5% | 6.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 11.1% | 6.9% | RH | 25.1% | 12.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.9% | 6.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.2% | 7.7% | 9.9% | RH | 29.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.5% | 8.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 31.2% | 9.8% | 11.5% | RH | 31.5% | 5.6% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.6% | 13.8% | 6.9% | RH | 27.2% | 14.3% | 4.4% | L7Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 1.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 28.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | LH | 29.1% | 13.3% | -1.3% | L7Days | 27.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% |
| Twins | Home | 31.4% | 5.3% | 12.6% | RH | 35.1% | 8.8% | 19.0% | L7Days | 35.6% | 9.5% | 18.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.8% | 13.9% | 23.2% | LH | 32.1% | 7.5% | 16.0% | L7Days | 30.1% | 7.8% | 13.9% |
| Reds | Home | 28.3% | 12.8% | 9.4% | RH | 25.9% | 9.7% | 3.4% | L7Days | 27.7% | 10.2% | 3.6% |
| Mets | Home | 29.4% | 8.0% | 10.8% | RH | 30.3% | 9.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.9% | 9.1% | 14.3% |
| Padres | Home | 22.6% | 10.5% | -1.9% | RH | 27.5% | 14.9% | 5.4% | L7Days | 25.3% | 13.6% | -3.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 13.3% | 6.8% | 1.96 | 13.3% | 6.8% | 1.96 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.13 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 2.13 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 21.7% | 10.5% | 2.07 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 2.07 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 27.9% | 9.5% | 2.94 | 27.9% | 9.5% | 2.94 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.7% | 10.4% | 1.89 | 19.7% | 10.4% | 1.89 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.39 | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.39 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.78 | 26.1% | 9.4% | 2.78 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 32.4% | 12.7% | 2.55 | 32.4% | 12.7% | 2.55 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 14.7% | 7.6% | 1.93 | 14.7% | 7.6% | 1.93 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 28.0% | 13.1% | 2.14 | 28.0% | 13.1% | 2.14 |
| J.C. Ramirez | ANA | 13.3% | 9.2% | 1.45 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 1.45 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.22 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.22 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 14.3% | 4.9% | 2.92 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 2.92 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | ||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 13.3% | 5.8% | 2.29 | 13.3% | 5.8% | 2.29 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 2.10 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 19.6% | 7.6% | 2.58 | 19.6% | 7.6% | 2.58 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.9% | 11.6% | 2.41 | 27.9% | 11.6% | 2.41 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 19.2% | 6.7% | 2.87 | 19.2% | 6.7% | 2.87 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 18.6% | 13.7% | 1.36 | 18.6% | 13.7% | 1.36 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 28.6% | 14.4% | 1.99 | 28.6% | 14.4% | 1.99 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.87 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.87 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 26.0% | 9.3% | 2.80 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 2.80 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 13.7% | 7.3% | 1.88 | 13.7% | 7.3% | 1.88 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 27.1% | 10.3% | 2.63 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 2.63 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.67 | 18.2% | 10.9% | 1.67 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 14.0% | 6.6% | 2.12 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 2.12 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 38.6% | 11.9% | 3.24 | 38.6% | 11.9% | 3.24 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 19.4% | 10.8% | 1.80 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 1.80 |
We’re seeing fewer outliers the fourth time through for some of these pitchers now with only one pitcher above a 3.0 K/SwStr. Jason Vargas having a SwStr% nearly four points above Clayton Kershaw was not something I was ever expecting to see at any point in any season.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.05 | 6.18 | 2.13 | 6.55 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.35 | 4.13 | 0.08 | 4.05 | 6.21 | 2.16 | 6.55 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 0.35 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 1.42 | 3.58 | 2.16 | 3.7 | 2.28 | 3.22 | 1.8 | 4.38 | 2.96 | 1.42 | 3.6 | 2.18 | 3.7 | 2.28 | 3.22 | 1.8 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.21 | 3.61 | 1.4 | 3.35 | 1.14 | 2.02 | -0.19 | 1.19 | -1.02 | 2.21 | 3.61 | 1.4 | 3.35 | 1.14 | 2.02 | -0.19 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.53 | 2.47 | -0.06 | 2.62 | 0.09 | 3.42 | 0.89 | 2.86 | 0.33 | 2.53 | 2.48 | -0.05 | 2.62 | 0.09 | 3.42 | 0.89 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.86 | 2.98 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 2.31 | 3.57 | 2.71 | 1.20 | 0.34 | 0.86 | 2.98 | 2.12 | 3.17 | 2.31 | 3.57 | 2.71 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 1.69 | 5.99 | 4.3 | 5.41 | 3.72 | 4.22 | 2.53 | 1.82 | 0.13 | 1.69 | 6.01 | 4.32 | 5.41 | 3.72 | 4.22 | 2.53 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 3.45 | 3.41 | -0.04 | 3.28 | -0.17 | 4.24 | 0.79 | 1.41 | -2.04 | 3.45 | 3.42 | -0.03 | 3.28 | -0.17 | 4.24 | 0.79 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 2.95 | 2.96 | 0.01 | 2.64 | -0.31 | 3.56 | 0.61 | 2.30 | -0.65 | 2.95 | 2.96 | 0.01 | 2.64 | -0.31 | 3.56 | 0.61 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 9 | 4.07 | -4.93 | 3.92 | -5.08 | 4.19 | -4.81 | 7.39 | -1.61 | 9 | 4.07 | -4.93 | 3.92 | -5.08 | 4.19 | -4.81 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 5.29 | 4.25 | -1.04 | 4.18 | -1.11 | 4.61 | -0.68 | 3.05 | -2.24 | 5.29 | 4.25 | -1.04 | 4.18 | -1.11 | 4.61 | -0.68 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.66 | 2.49 | 1.83 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 1.29 | 0.63 | 5.66 | 5.00 | 0.66 | 2.51 | 1.85 | 2.34 | 1.68 | 1.29 | 0.63 |
| J.C. Ramirez | ANA | 7.2 | 4.55 | -2.65 | 4.49 | -2.71 | 5.5 | -1.7 | 3.40 | -3.80 | 7.2 | 4.55 | -2.65 | 4.49 | -2.71 | 5.5 | -1.7 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.75 | 3.79 | 0.04 | 3.84 | 0.09 | 1.99 | -1.76 | 6.02 | 2.27 | 3.75 | 3.79 | 0.04 | 3.84 | 0.09 | 1.99 | -1.76 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 7.8 | 4.83 | -2.97 | 4.97 | -2.83 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 6.72 | -1.08 | 7.8 | 4.83 | -2.97 | 4.97 | -2.83 | 4.9 | -2.9 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | ||||||||||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 5.06 | 6.1 | 1.04 | 6.28 | 1.22 | 4.97 | -0.09 | 1.73 | -3.33 | 5.06 | 6.12 | 1.06 | 6.28 | 1.22 | 4.97 | -0.09 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.95 | 4.5 | 3.55 | 4.49 | 3.54 | 2.9 | 1.95 | 2.55 | 1.60 | 0.95 | 4.5 | 3.55 | 4.49 | 3.54 | 2.9 | 1.95 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 5.73 | 3.8 | -1.93 | 3.82 | -1.91 | 4.45 | -1.28 | 12.34 | 6.61 | 5.73 | 3.8 | -1.93 | 3.82 | -1.91 | 4.45 | -1.28 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.43 | 2.68 | -0.75 | 2.93 | -0.5 | 2.43 | -1 | 1.69 | -1.74 | 3.43 | 2.68 | -0.75 | 2.93 | -0.5 | 2.43 | -1 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 2.2 | 4.99 | 2.79 | 4.38 | 2.18 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 5.30 | 3.10 | 2.2 | 5 | 2.8 | 4.38 | 2.18 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 8.36 | 4.61 | -3.75 | 5.01 | -3.35 | 5.98 | -2.38 | 4.57 | -3.79 | 8.36 | 4.61 | -3.75 | 5.01 | -3.35 | 5.98 | -2.38 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3 | 2.97 | -0.03 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 3.49 | 0.49 | 1.92 | -1.08 | 3 | 2.97 | -0.03 | 3.31 | 0.31 | 3.49 | 0.49 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 7.56 | 3.44 | -4.12 | 3.75 | -3.81 | 5.36 | -2.2 | 6.76 | -0.80 | 7.56 | 3.45 | -4.11 | 3.75 | -3.81 | 5.36 | -2.2 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 9.28 | 3.44 | -5.84 | 3.36 | -5.92 | 4.31 | -4.97 | 8.32 | -0.96 | 9.28 | 3.46 | -5.82 | 3.36 | -5.92 | 4.31 | -4.97 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 7.36 | 4.14 | -3.22 | 3.93 | -3.43 | 4.27 | -3.09 | 6.34 | -1.02 | 7.36 | 4.14 | -3.22 | 3.93 | -3.43 | 4.27 | -3.09 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 8.44 | 2.8 | -5.64 | 2.52 | -5.92 | 4.69 | -3.75 | 2.14 | -6.30 | 8.44 | 2.82 | -5.62 | 2.52 | -5.92 | 4.69 | -3.75 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 8.59 | 4.42 | -4.17 | 4.34 | -4.25 | 6.04 | -2.55 | 4.76 | -3.83 | 8.59 | 4.44 | -4.15 | 4.34 | -4.25 | 6.04 | -2.55 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 10.38 | 4.78 | -5.6 | 4.94 | -5.44 | 7.06 | -3.32 | 2.84 | -7.54 | 10.38 | 4.8 | -5.58 | 4.94 | -5.44 | 7.06 | -3.32 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 9 | 3.16 | -5.84 | 3.21 | -5.79 | 6.13 | -2.87 | 5.33 | -3.67 | 9 | 3.16 | -5.84 | 3.21 | -5.79 | 6.13 | -2.87 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 4.32 | 3.87 | -0.45 | 3.84 | -0.48 | 2.9 | -1.42 | 3.20 | -1.12 | 4.32 | 3.88 | -0.44 | 3.84 | -0.48 | 2.9 | -1.42 |
DRA continues to confound me. It’s praised by a lot of smart people, so there’s certainly something there, but I really have no idea what it values yet. The numbers seem to be all over the place and not necessarily in line with any of the other estimators. Look at Robert Gsellman, Trevor Bauer and Vince Velasquez, who otherwise have somewhat similar estimators, but a DRA separated from each other by at least three full runs.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.233 | 0.300 | 0.067 | 40.0% | 0.15 | 11.1% | 87.2% | 87.8 | 5.30% | 3.30% | 19 |
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.255 | 0.182 | -0.073 | 47.1% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 89.8% | 89.6 | 2.90% | 2.20% | 34 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.271 | 0.305 | 0.034 | 46.6% | 0.241 | 11.8% | 83.7% | 87.6 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 55 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.266 | 0.192 | -0.074 | 45.5% | 0.145 | 18.2% | 89.4% | 86.9 | 7.40% | 5.10% | 54 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.261 | 0.113 | -0.148 | 73.1% | 0.058 | 0.0% | 92.3% | 88.3 | 6.30% | 3.90% | 48 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.253 | 0.278 | 0.025 | 61.1% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 94.7% | 85.1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18 |
| Edinson Volquez | FLA | 0.235 | 0.310 | 0.075 | 41.9% | 0.233 | 6.7% | 90.3% | 89.5 | 9.30% | 5.80% | 43 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.296 | 0.327 | 0.031 | 45.5% | 0.291 | 7.1% | 89.7% | 85.4 | 6.40% | 4.10% | 47 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.307 | 0.438 | 0.131 | 23.5% | 0.353 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 96 | 11.80% | 5.90% | 17 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.289 | 0.316 | 0.027 | 49.1% | 0.158 | 5.0% | 90.3% | 90.1 | 7.10% | 5.30% | 56 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.277 | 0.294 | 0.017 | 50.0% | 0.235 | 11.1% | 74.6% | 85.2 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32 |
| J.C. Ramirez | ANA | 0.274 | 0.273 | -0.001 | 50.0% | 0.206 | 20.0% | 84.3% | 88.7 | 6.10% | 4.40% | 33 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.259 | 0.325 | 0.066 | 33.3% | 0.308 | 7.1% | 91.8% | 88.3 | 5.30% | 3.80% | 38 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.258 | 0.340 | 0.082 | 50.0% | 0.173 | 5.9% | 91.4% | 87.1 | 7.80% | 5.70% | 51 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.291 | ||||||||||
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.300 | 0.226 | -0.074 | 21.9% | 0.25 | 23.5% | 87.9% | 91.6 | 12.90% | 8.90% | 31 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.262 | 0.294 | 0.032 | 28.6% | 0.327 | 0.0% | 86.6% | 85 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 46 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.261 | 0.281 | 0.02 | 51.5% | 0.121 | 8.3% | 92.5% | 89.1 | 6.50% | 4.30% | 31 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.297 | 0.286 | -0.011 | 43.9% | 0.158 | 13.0% | 86.6% | 87 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 50 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.280 | 0.348 | 0.068 | 43.8% | 0.313 | 16.7% | 92.2% | 90.4 | 9.10% | 5.50% | 44 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.274 | 0.364 | 0.09 | 45.7% | 0.196 | 12.5% | 82.2% | 90.4 | 11.60% | 7.10% | 43 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.319 | 0.333 | 0.014 | 35.5% | 0.161 | 6.7% | 81.0% | 83.3 | 10.70% | 6.10% | 28 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.302 | 0.385 | 0.083 | 38.6% | 0.193 | 16.7% | 83.2% | 90.7 | 17.90% | 12.70% | 56 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.302 | 0.367 | 0.065 | 51.6% | 0.161 | 10.0% | 85.5% | 87.5 | 10.00% | 6.00% | 30 |
| Tommy Milone | MIL | 0.302 | 0.390 | 0.088 | 34.9% | 0.326 | 42.9% | 89.1% | 84.9 | 5.00% | 3.90% | 40 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.338 | 0.400 | 0.062 | 36.4% | 0.333 | 20.0% | 85.5% | 89.9 | 10.00% | 6.30% | 30 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | 0.286 | 0.318 | 0.032 | 36.2% | 0.277 | 23.5% | 83.3% | 87.1 | 8.90% | 6.10% | 45 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.342 | 0.387 | 0.045 | 32.4% | 0.294 | 15.4% | 85.3% | 88.1 | 5.90% | 4.70% | 34 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.289 | 0.438 | 0.149 | 31.6% | 0.263 | 12.5% | 77.4% | 94.5 | 10.50% | 4.50% | 19 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.298 | 0.346 | 0.048 | 47.2% | 0.189 | 16.7% | 85.0% | 91.4 | 9.40% | 6.90% | 53 |
Those .400 BABIPs should be going away soon, but there are certainly some elevated numbers here.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) hasn’t had a typically dominant outing yet, but it’s coming. Maybe tonight. It’s a great spot for him at home.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (3) has allowed just 11 fly balls and three line drives through three starts. This is as contact dominant a stretch that I can remember seeing a pitcher go through, never mind to start a season. It won’t continue at this rate, but he could be very good again and is still just under $10K.
Madison Bumgarner (2) perhaps gets over-rated due to post-season dominance, but he’s still a very good pitcher, even if he’s only throwing 91-92 mph. He should be in line for a strong one in Kansas City.
Robert Gsellman probably hasn’t retained too many supporters and I may not still be one either had I not actually watched both of his starts. I’d argue the stuff was actually much better in the second one despite eight runs. The issues were with the defense (not going away) and in pitch choices (especially location). The latter he can do something about. The ability is certainly still there and the cost remains low due to lack of results.
Value Tier Three
Chris Archer (4) is getting better results, but really isn’t doing much differently than last season. I’d suspect his lack of an elite strikeout rate is just a small sample against some tough offenses. He faces another one tonight, but Detroit will strike out a bit. Due to the tough matchup and other Aces on the board, I’d expect him to garner little attention tonight.
Jason Vargas costs nearly $3K less on DraftKings than on FanDuel. He’s off the board for $8.2K, but is intriguing enough with ground balls and strikeouts to use in an SP2 spot for just over $5K.
Trevor Bauer is not a name you’ll often find advocated here. We’re mostly sellers on his erratic arm, but he is not without talent and there may be a buying opportunity when the chips are down and most people are likely abandoning him. He costs $7.5K or less on either site and his underlying metrics through two starts are better than they’ve ever been.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Masahiro Tanaka has struggled a bit with the strike zone in early starts, but should be able to get it turned around against a poor offense that has struck out in a quarter of PAs against RHP so far.
Amir Garrett may not go as deep in this game as he has in his first two. I’m not sure if I trust his new found control yet and that could mean an earlier exit, especially with Lorenzen and Iglesias both fresh from the opposite side. That said, he doesn’t have to do much for $4.8K on DraftKings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window