Advanced Stats – Pitching: Wednesday, July 26th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-07-27 00:53:03

Losing Chris Sale to the day slate is always enough cause for a moment of silence.

Good. Now that that’s done, it’s time to tell you that we’re covering 10 games on Wednesday night and there are still a decent number of high priced arms in reasonable spots or better. If you’re looking for low cost upside though, this may not be the slate for you.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher	Team	Team Def	SIERA L2Yrs	IP/GS L2Yrs	GB% L2Yrs	Park Run	Hm/Rd xFIP	SIERA L14	Opp	Opp Hm/Rd	Opp L/R wRC+	Opp L7 wRC+
Aaron Blair	ATL	-2.5	5.49	4.67	39.7%	1.13	5.47		ARI	105	102	99
Aaron Nola	PHI	4.1	3.57	5.87	50.8%	0.96	3	3.39	HOU	138	134	146
Alex Cobb	TAM	-0.7	4.71	6.12	47.1%	0.96	4.1	4.51	BAL	92	97	125
Alex Wood	LOS	3.8	3.48	5.79	57.0%	0.89	2.78	4.96	MIN	89	87	87
Andrew Moore	SEA	6.6	5.82	6.	28.3%	0.89	6.01	6.41	BOS	94	88	44
Anibal Sanchez	DET	2.8	4.31	5.38	39.0%	0.98	4.32	4.92	KAN	83	89	134
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	0	3.26	6.04	48.2%	1.09	3.54	3.39	ANA	83	92	114
Carlos Martinez	STL	-3.5	3.81	6.24	53.7%	0.98	3.72	4.13	COL	80	79	137
Chris Sale	BOS	7	2.98	6.94	40.3%	0.89	3.35	2.35	SEA	109	101	81
Ervin Santana	MIN	1.8	4.53	6.21	42.7%	0.89	4.55	6.56	LOS	120	109	129
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	0.1	4.07	5.75	47.1%	1.01	3.71	4.72	MIL	97	95	83
Homer Bailey	CIN	7.4	4.42	4.18	45.0%	1.01	3.46	5.03	NYY	120	116	99
Ian Kennedy	KAN	5.8	4.15	5.8	35.7%	0.98	4.73	4.2	DET	113	96	91
Jake Arrieta	CHC	4.2	3.67	6.33	52.8%	0.98	3.94	4.53	CHW	91	87	84
James Shields	CHW	0.2	4.98	5.63	40.6%	0.98	5.29	6.52	CHC	95	92	107
Jeff Hoffman	COL	-4.2	4.85	5.36	41.9%	0.98	4.52	6.51	STL	104	98	105
Jeff Samardzija	SFO	-0.9	3.94	6.33	43.4%	0.93	3.61	3.59	PIT	91	90	123
Jhoulys Chacin	SDG	-5.8	4.36	5.5	50.1%	0.91	4.07	5	NYM	111	102	108
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	-1.3	4.29	5.73	50.0%	1.01	4.52	3.08	WAS	113	109	57
Jose Urena	MIA	4.1	4.99	5.18	43.2%	1.11	5.04	5.51	TEX	106	96	104
Luis Severino	NYY	1.1	3.66	5.61	49.3%	1.01	3.48	4	CIN	93	97	83
Marco Estrada	TOR	-2.8	4.45	5.92	32.4%	1.03	4.66	6.16	OAK	86	103	110
Mike Fiers	HOU	-5.8	4.15	5.68	42.1%	0.96	4.54	2.16	PHI	93	85	117
Patrick Corbin	ARI	-5.3	4.11	5.52	51.1%	1.13	4.04	3.51	ATL	90	95	82
Paul Blackburn	OAK	-12.2	5.52	6.25	0.518	1.03	5.51	5.6	TOR	91	89	74
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	1.2	4.43	5.89	0.423	1.09	4.59	4.61	CLE	111	106	146
Steven Matz	NYM	-1.4	3.79	5.83	0.492	0.91	3.83	3.92	SDG	89	73	112
Trevor Williams	PIT	-3.2	4.52	5.28	0.473	0.93	4.25	4.36	SFO	76	80	92
Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	-4.6	4.69	5.38	0.488	0.96	4.79	4.55	TAM	112	110	71
Yu Darvish	TEX	3.5	3.5	6.14	0.406	1.11	3.67	2.86	MIA	100	93	86

Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings in five of his last six with seven strikeouts or more in all of them. He has a 22.3 K-BB% over that span, although he’s gotten a bit lucky with a .253 BABIP, 93.4 LOB% and 11.4 HR/FB with a 35.0 Hard%. On the season, his Statcast rates are a bit better than that. The main issue he faces is the monstrous Houston offense (17.4 K% and 16.4 HR/FB vs RHP).

Alex Wood was absolutely smashed by the Braves last time out. It was his worst start of the season. The pitcher hit a grand slam. He doubled his HRs allowed from two to four. That part of his game (8.3 HR/FB) was always going to be unsustainable. The four walks were more concerning and he’s now struck out just eight of his last 48 batters. While his ground ball rate was below 50% for only the second time since his first start, he generated 42.1% soft contact. Another issue has now been a continuous decline in velocity about a mile per hour each month. For the season, he still carries elite numbers with a 21.6 K-BB%, 61.9 GB% and 0.4 Hard-Soft%. His 83.9 mph aEV, 2.7% Barrels/BBE and 24.3% 95+ mph EV are all lowest on the board among those with more than four starts. He’s in one of the more favorable spots on the board, hosting a downward trending Minnesota offense.
NOTE – Alex Wood is out and Brock Stewart is in. This looks to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers as Stewart has been used exclusively in two inning stints for the Dodgers this month.

Carlos Carrasco hasn’t consistently put up great traditional results (five runs or more in two of his last five starts), but does have a slate leading 15.1 SwStr% with a 32.8 K% over that span. There is a concern that his 37.8 GB% has been just barely above a 35.1 Hard% though, which has led to six HRs. For the season, his 21.2 K-BB% is ninth in the majors, though his 9.4% Barrels/BBE is one of the highest marks on the board. RHBs have just a .269 wOBA and 25.5 K-BB% with a 27 Hard% against him this year, important when facing the Angels, an offense he should be able to handle, but which a highly positive run environment may neutralize a bit.

Carlos Martinez has seen his peripherals tumble over his last four starts. Coming off a 10 strikeout performance five starts back, his totals since have been 15 strikeouts, nine walks and six HRs. His last two starts haven’t been too bad overall with just two walks and two HRs, but the strikeouts have not improved. Velocity has actually increased and there’s no discernable pattern in his profile that suggests an answer for these struggles. He faces a hot Colorado offense (40.4 Hard%, 28.3 HR/FB over the last week), but there’s some Coors leftover in there, though St Louis becomes a bit more hitter friendly in the hot summer months. They’ve been a poor offense on the road (16.6 K-BB%) and vs RHP (15.1 K-BB%).

Gio Gonzalez is coming off one of his worst starts of the season (5.2 IP – 4 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 3 K – 25 BF) against the Angels. Walks remain an issue as a 22.7 K% right on his career mark is met with his highest walk rate (10.3%) since Oakland. Statcast likes the way he’s managed contact (85.3 mph aEV, 28.7% 95+ mph EV). Generally not a pitcher with a major HR issue, he’s on his way to a new career high (19) in this new power friendly climate, having already allowed 15. While this is a bit of a concern against a power potent Milwaukee offense (17.9 HR/FB on the road, 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP), at least he gets to face the Brewers (26.3 K% vs LHP) at home.

Jake Arrieta has seen his strikeouts drop and his estimators rise as his ERA has improved over the last month. We’ve seen significant improvement in his contact though (50 GB%, -10.2 Hard-Soft%). It’s been a conscious shift in pitch selection, cutting down on all of his secondaries in favor of his sinker more than 70% of the time. I’m not sure he’s going to be able to sustain his .224 BABIP over this span, but it seems that he’s solved one issue and created another. It may be one he doesn’t recognize though because real pitchers don’t care about daily fantasy points. There’s still some value in a RHP who his stifling contact against the White Sox though (15.7 K-BB% vs RHP).

Jimmy Nelson can trace his breakout back to the middle of May when he started dominating LHBs. They continue to make hard contact when they do make contact (37.2 Hard%), but a .279 wOBA stems from a 30.2 K-BB% from that point on. RHBs (.316 wOBA) have made more contact (18.4 K-BB%), but it has been muted (53.4 GB%, -2.2 Hard-Soft%). A matchup with the Washington offense is not an easy one, but they have been slumping aside from Harper (17.7 K-BB%, 6.4 HR/FB over the last week).

Yu Darvish struck out a season high 12 in his last start, the fourth time in double digits this season. Amazingly, he threw 71.3% fastballs, but it was the Rays and they homered three times. He now has an 18.4 K-BB%, which is still his lowest since his first season, but is top 15 in the majors. His contact management has been about average which can occasionally cause issues in Texas, but make no mistake…the tremendous upside is still there. The Marlins don’t walk a lot, but strike out and homer at an average pace in a park that will enhance their abilities.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)

Ian Kennedy (.224 – 70% – 14.5) has been pitching better of late, including two of his four outings without a HR this year over the last month. However, his 89.4 mph aEV and 10.5% Barrels/BBE are both highest on the board among pitchers with more than five starts. Detroit has a 32.5 Hard-Soft% at home and 25.3 Hard% vs RHP, again, not all J.D. Martinez generated.

Ervin Santana (.224 – 83.3% – 13.8) has now allowed 21 HRs on the season, including multiple bombs in five of his last nine.

Jose Urena (.250 – 78.1% – 11.5) is rocking the 7.3 K-BB%.

Paul Blackburn (.238 – 81.4% – 11.5) has allowed just 2.4% Barrels/BBE with a 3.4 Hard-Soft%, but has just a 9% strikeout rate.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Steven Matz had somewhat of a bounce back in his last start, striking out five of 23 A’s without a walk or HR. He has just a 32.6 GB% and 38.3 Hard% over his last three starts though and just a 6.8 SwStr% on the year. He had begun working in his slider again and even used it 20% of the time in that thrashing by Colorado, generating a 15 SwStr%, but then he ditched it again last time out. He is in a great spot in San Diego (25.7 K% vs LHP) at a reasonable price though. It’s close. You could consider him in an SP2 spot on DraftKings.

Mike Fiers has a slate leading 33.3 K% over the last month, but with just an 8.8 SwStr%. His rebound can be traced to when he punted his slider for a sinker in mid-May, while he’s been throwing more changeups recently as well. Over his last five starts though, he has just a 26.5 GB% and 39.7 Hard%. The Phillies have been a bit better of late (108 wRC+ second half). I’m a bit uncomfortable with his current cost in conjunction with his whacky profile.

Jhoulys Chacin has a below average 10.6 K-BB% with an 84.8 LOB% over the last month, but with an exceptional -8.1 Hard-Soft%. His 27.5% 95+ mph EV is one of the lowest marks on the board for the season. While his home ERA is fiver runs below his road ERA, his FIP is separated by less than a run and a half and his xFIP is essentially the same, just above four. The Mets have average power with just an 18.8 K% vs RHP this year. He was also a late scratch last night due to a back issue.

Anibal Sanchez has just a 7.6 SwStr% over the last month.

Marco Estrada has a 0.0 K-BB% over his last six starts.

Ricky Nolasco has allowed 26 HRs, 16 to RHBs, who have a .384 wOBA against him this year.

Jeff Hoffman has gone at least six innings in all five road starts, but his strikeout decline has carried over from Coors with just three in his most recent one.

James Shields

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher	Team	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Aaron Blair	Braves	L2 Years	14.2%	10.5%	Road	13.2%	8.3%	L14 Days
Aaron Nola	Phillies	L2 Years	24.2%	6.6%	Home	27.6%	6.5%	L14 Days	30.2%	7.6%
Alex Cobb	Rays	L2 Years	15.5%	6.2%	Home	18.3%	5.2%	L14 Days	13.8%	5.2%
Alex Wood	Dodgers	L2 Years	24.3%	7.7%	Home	28.9%	7.1%	L14 Days	16.7%	10.4%
Andrew Moore	Mariners	L2 Years	10.5%	2.4%	Home	11.0%	2.8%	L14 Days	7.1%	2.4%
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	L2 Years	20.4%	7.5%	Home	22.9%	6.5%	L14 Days	15.7%	5.9%
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	L2 Years	27.6%	6.3%	Home	24.4%	7.0%	L14 Days	30.8%	7.7%
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	L2 Years	23.2%	8.1%	Home	21.7%	6.8%	L14 Days	14.6%	3.6%
Chris Sale	Red Sox	L2 Years	30.0%	4.9%	Road	29.1%	5.1%	L14 Days	41.5%	7.6%
Ervin Santana	Twins	L2 Years	18.9%	7.9%	Road	19.5%	8.1%	L14 Days	13.3%	15.6%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	23.0%	8.9%	Home	25.4%	9.6%	L14 Days	16.4%	9.1%
Homer Bailey	Reds	L2 Years	19.2%	8.2%	Road	22.3%	8.6%	L14 Days	16.7%	8.3%
Ian Kennedy	Royals	L2 Years	23.4%	8.4%	Road	21.9%	8.8%	L14 Days	22.2%	6.7%
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	L2 Years	24.5%	8.1%	Road	21.3%	8.0%	L14 Days	18.0%	6.0%
James Shields	White Sox	L2 Years	17.7%	10.4%	Home	17.7%	10.2%	L14 Days	7.6%	11.3%
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	L2 Years	18.0%	8.9%	Road	21.5%	7.5%	L14 Days	10.4%	10.4%
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	L2 Years	21.3%	5.4%	Home	21.9%	5.6%	L14 Days	22.9%	2.1%
Jhoulys Chacin	Padres	L2 Years	19.3%	8.6%	Home	20.5%	7.5%	L14 Days	16.0%	10.0%
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	L2 Years	20.6%	8.9%	Road	19.5%	9.4%	L14 Days	30.4%	6.5%
Jose Urena	Marlins	L2 Years	15.0%	8.2%	Road	16.5%	7.4%	L14 Days	16.3%	11.6%
Luis Severino	Yankees	L2 Years	24.4%	7.3%	Home	25.1%	6.6%	L14 Days	21.4%	5.4%
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	L2 Years	22.1%	8.8%	Home	23.8%	9.8%	L14 Days	19.1%	16.7%
Mike Fiers	Astros	L2 Years	21.0%	7.0%	Road	18.9%	7.8%	L14 Days	38.5%	1.9%
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	19.9%	7.6%	Home	20.6%	8.4%	L14 Days	24.5%	4.1%
Paul Blackburn	Athletics	L2 Years	9.0%	7.0%	Road	2.0%	4.0%	L14 Days	10.4%	10.4%
Ricky Nolasco	Angels	L2 Years	18.4%	6.0%	Road	18.6%	6.7%	L14 Days	15.9%	4.6%
Steven Matz	Mets	L2 Years	21.4%	5.6%	Road	20.6%	5.3%	L14 Days	19.4%	2.8%
Trevor Williams	Pirates	L2 Years	17.0%	6.7%	Road	17.8%	7.0%	L14 Days	17.0%	7.6%
Ubaldo Jimenez	Orioles	L2 Years	19.2%	10.7%	Road	19.6%	10.9%	L14 Days	14.6%	4.2%
Yu Darvish	Rangers	L2 Years	28.7%	7.7%	Home	28.0%	7.6%	L14 Days	30.5%	3.4%

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Opponent	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%	Split	K%	BB%
Diamondbacks	Home	23.1%	9.5%	RH	23.0%	9.4%	L7Days	30.1%	10.8%
Astros	Road	17.6%	8.8%	RH	17.4%	8.2%	L7Days	18.5%	6.5%
Orioles	Road	23.7%	6.2%	RH	22.2%	6.7%	L7Days	18.1%	7.0%
Twins	Road	22.5%	9.1%	LH	20.9%	9.7%	L7Days	21.6%	10.1%
Red Sox	Road	19.2%	8.8%	RH	19.4%	8.8%	L7Days	22.4%	8.4%
Royals	Road	21.7%	6.0%	RH	20.7%	6.5%	L7Days	19.7%	7.5%
Angels	Road	21.4%	8.8%	RH	20.0%	8.2%	L7Days	20.4%	8.4%
Rockies	Road	24.1%	7.5%	RH	22.6%	7.5%	L7Days	19.2%	6.4%
Mariners	Home	20.9%	8.9%	LH	18.5%	9.4%	L7Days	26.0%	6.6%
Dodgers	Home	23.0%	10.3%	RH	22.7%	10.5%	L7Days	21.8%	7.0%
Brewers	Road	24.6%	8.8%	LH	26.3%	8.6%	L7Days	28.4%	8.2%
Yankees	Home	23.5%	10.8%	RH	22.4%	9.6%	L7Days	19.3%	8.8%
Tigers	Home	19.3%	9.1%	RH	21.7%	9.4%	L7Days	16.8%	7.7%
White Sox	Home	22.5%	7.5%	RH	22.3%	6.6%	L7Days	20.6%	5.5%
Cubs	Road	22.6%	9.5%	RH	21.9%	8.8%	L7Days	20.7%	7.9%
Cardinals	Home	21.2%	9.6%	RH	21.3%	8.7%	L7Days	22.1%	9.5%
Pirates	Road	19.0%	8.8%	RH	18.5%	8.4%	L7Days	16.6%	8.6%
Mets	Road	20.2%	8.7%	RH	18.8%	9.0%	L7Days	18.1%	5.0%
Nationals	Home	19.3%	9.5%	RH	19.7%	9.4%	L7Days	24.3%	6.6%
Rangers	Home	21.6%	9.4%	RH	23.7%	8.9%	L7Days	21.3%	8.6%
Reds	Road	20.2%	7.4%	RH	21.0%	8.7%	L7Days	20.5%	9.3%
Athletics	Road	25.4%	8.9%	RH	25.2%	9.4%	L7Days	18.8%	9.6%
Phillies	Home	22.3%	8.3%	RH	23.7%	8.0%	L7Days	23.5%	9.1%
Braves	Road	19.6%	7.4%	LH	19.6%	8.2%	L7Days	21.2%	6.4%
Blue Jays	Home	20.7%	8.6%	RH	20.9%	8.3%	L7Days	24.5%	11.7%
Indians	Home	18.6%	10.1%	RH	19.7%	9.5%	L7Days	19.0%	13.4%
Padres	Home	24.6%	8.3%	LH	25.7%	8.3%	L7Days	20.1%	6.6%
Giants	Home	19.2%	6.9%	RH	19.4%	7.4%	L7Days	17.2%	8.2%
Rays	Home	24.6%	9.8%	RH	24.5%	8.8%	L7Days	24.1%	10.5%
Marlins	Road	20.3%	6.4%	RH	20.5%	7.0%	L7Days	20.0%	6.4%

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Pitcher	Team	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Aaron Blair	Braves	L2 Years	29.0%	15.7%	8.0%	2017				Road	36.4%	17.9%	18.2%	L14 Days
Aaron Nola	Phillies	L2 Years	29.7%	13.3%	7.9%	2017	31.4%	12.5%	9.0%	Home	29.2%	18.7%	4.1%	L14 Days	39.4%	15.4%	27.3%
Alex Cobb	Rays	L2 Years	35.3%	12.9%	20.2%	2017	36.5%	11.4%	21.9%	Home	38.7%	13.3%	21.9%	L14 Days	34.0%	27.3%	14.8%
Alex Wood	Dodgers	L2 Years	24.2%	11.3%	5.7%	2017	20.8%	8.3%	0.4%	Home	23.8%	9.8%	1.5%	L14 Days	17.1%	22.2%	-14.3%
Andrew Moore	Mariners	L2 Years	35.5%	15.8%	23.3%	2017	35.5%	15.8%	23.3%	Home	34.4%	12.0%	22.6%	L14 Days	42.1%	20.0%	28.9%
Anibal Sanchez	Tigers	L2 Years	33.5%	17.0%	15.6%	2017	38.6%	17.6%	22.4%	Home	36.0%	15.0%	18.8%	L14 Days	37.5%	20.0%	22.5%
Carlos Carrasco	Indians	L2 Years	31.2%	15.9%	14.2%	2017	31.1%	14.7%	14.4%	Home	37.8%	21.9%	24.3%	L14 Days	37.5%	20.0%	31.2%
Carlos Martinez	Cardinals	L2 Years	30.9%	11.4%	11.9%	2017	33.9%	15.0%	15.6%	Home	28.7%	14.3%	9.5%	L14 Days	33.3%	18.2%	13.3%
Chris Sale	Red Sox	L2 Years	30.6%	11.3%	13.1%	2017	30.1%	8.2%	12.2%	Road	30.2%	5.9%	12.0%	L14 Days	40.7%	0.0%	14.8%
Ervin Santana	Twins	L2 Years	29.2%	11.0%	10.4%	2017	28.0%	13.8%	7.8%	Road	28.6%	9.9%	9.7%	L14 Days	34.4%	23.1%	18.8%
Gio Gonzalez	Nationals	L2 Years	31.3%	10.8%	11.6%	2017	30.8%	12.4%	9.0%	Home	32.7%	13.4%	13.8%	L14 Days	17.1%	7.7%	-4.9%
Homer Bailey	Reds	L2 Years	29.3%	19.0%	13.2%	2017	28.3%	25.0%	12.1%	Road	24.5%	5.9%	11.7%	L14 Days	31.4%	20.0%	8.5%
Ian Kennedy	Royals	L2 Years	37.2%	13.3%	21.1%	2017	40.6%	14.5%	27.6%	Road	34.7%	14.5%	16.9%	L14 Days	54.8%	15.4%	45.1%
Jake Arrieta	Cubs	L2 Years	25.3%	11.7%	2.1%	2017	28.3%	15.2%	5.8%	Road	28.4%	15.6%	6.3%	L14 Days	21.1%	14.3%	-7.9%
James Shields	White Sox	L2 Years	32.6%	17.5%	16.0%	2017	34.4%	16.7%	14.9%	Home	33.2%	18.0%	19.0%	L14 Days	34.9%	13.3%	18.6%
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	L2 Years	34.0%	12.1%	15.5%	2017	33.8%	8.1%	16.4%	Road	31.3%	13.1%	12.0%	L14 Days	27.8%	11.1%	13.9%
Jeff Samardzija	Giants	L2 Years	30.4%	14.1%	11.0%	2017	28.5%	17.4%	6.4%	Home	30.7%	10.2%	10.2%	L14 Days	22.9%	23.1%	8.6%
Jhoulys Chacin	Padres	L2 Years	31.0%	13.3%	11.1%	2017	28.4%	15.6%	5.9%	Home	27.6%	7.6%	5.2%	L14 Days	16.2%	12.5%	-16.2%
Jimmy Nelson	Brewers	L2 Years	31.8%	13.7%	10.3%	2017	31.7%	13.7%	10.2%	Road	32.7%	15.1%	13.1%	L14 Days	34.5%	28.6%	6.9%
Jose Urena	Marlins	L2 Years	32.5%	11.1%	11.8%	2017	32.3%	11.5%	12.8%	Road	32.6%	12.9%	13.0%	L14 Days	39.3%	18.2%	25.0%
Luis Severino	Yankees	L2 Years	28.4%	15.0%	6.7%	2017	29.0%	12.6%	9.4%	Home	30.1%	21.5%	7.8%	L14 Days	17.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Marco Estrada	Blue Jays	L2 Years	30.6%	10.5%	10.2%	2017	30.6%	12.0%	12.3%	Home	30.7%	11.3%	11.4%	L14 Days	37.0%	6.7%	18.5%
Mike Fiers	Astros	L2 Years	32.1%	15.8%	12.9%	2017	30.6%	19.6%	9.7%	Road	33.0%	18.8%	14.8%	L14 Days	35.5%	15.4%	6.5%
Patrick Corbin	Diamondbacks	L2 Years	35.2%	15.8%	18.9%	2017	32.9%	16.8%	14.8%	Home	38.2%	15.6%	23.4%	L14 Days	25.7%	16.7%	2.8%
Paul Blackburn	Athletics	L2 Years	24.1%	11.5%	2.4%	2017	24.1%	11.5%	2.4%	Road	19.2%	13.3%	-2.1%	L14 Days	29.0%	22.2%	2.7%
Ricky Nolasco	Angels	L2 Years	34.8%	14.4%	20.7%	2017	36.4%	18.8%	22.3%	Road	39.4%	16.6%	27.2%	L14 Days	22.9%	8.3%	5.8%
Steven Matz	Mets	L2 Years	29.5%	14.0%	8.5%	2017	31.3%	15.4%	10.6%	Road	26.0%	9.4%	6.9%	L14 Days	39.3%	20.0%	25.0%
Trevor Williams	Pirates	L2 Years	31.2%	12.9%	7.0%	2017	31.2%	10.2%	6.0%	Road	29.6%	21.7%	4.4%	L14 Days	32.5%	10.0%	7.5%
Ubaldo Jimenez	Orioles	L2 Years	31.6%	14.8%	13.0%	2017	36.4%	21.4%	19.2%	Road	31.7%	12.8%	14.2%	L14 Days	51.3%	27.3%	35.9%
Yu Darvish	Rangers	L2 Years	31.1%	13.3%	9.8%	2017	31.9%	14.3%	11.7%	Home	34.3%	14.4%	15.2%	L14 Days	23.1%	25.0%	-5.1%

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

Opponent	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%	Split	Hard%	HR/FB%	Hd-St%
Diamondbacks	Home	37.8%	16.1%	23.4%	RH	35.8%	15.1%	18.5%	L7Days	32.5%	22.4%	13.2%
Astros	Road	33.6%	16.4%	15.4%	RH	33.7%	16.4%	16.2%	L7Days	33.3%	16.9%	16.9%
Orioles	Road	34.3%	13.6%	14.8%	RH	31.7%	15.5%	11.0%	L7Days	38.4%	15.5%	16.2%
Twins	Road	30.3%	12.3%	12.1%	LH	29.4%	9.4%	10.6%	L7Days	33.8%	7.1%	18.2%
Red Sox	Road	31.9%	11.3%	11.5%	RH	34.2%	10.3%	16.0%	L7Days	22.0%	5.2%	-0.5%
Royals	Road	31.9%	15.0%	12.2%	RH	32.0%	12.3%	12.7%	L7Days	31.0%	21.0%	13.5%
Angels	Road	33.0%	11.3%	13.6%	RH	31.0%	13.5%	11.5%	L7Days	34.3%	17.0%	14.9%
Rockies	Road	29.5%	11.7%	8.5%	RH	30.2%	13.5%	10.4%	L7Days	40.4%	28.3%	26.4%
Mariners	Home	28.8%	12.4%	9.4%	LH	30.2%	10.2%	10.2%	L7Days	26.3%	11.3%	2.8%
Dodgers	Home	36.4%	17.5%	21.2%	RH	35.5%	15.1%	20.0%	L7Days	35.7%	19.1%	20.3%
Brewers	Road	30.3%	17.9%	11.6%	LH	35.2%	16.1%	16.2%	L7Days	30.3%	13.7%	11.7%
Yankees	Home	30.6%	20.0%	9.7%	RH	31.8%	16.7%	12.9%	L7Days	31.1%	12.1%	12.5%
Tigers	Home	46.0%	13.4%	32.5%	RH	40.7%	11.6%	25.3%	L7Days	32.6%	7.4%	15.1%
White Sox	Home	28.9%	12.7%	7.4%	RH	31.1%	13.3%	12.1%	L7Days	28.7%	10.3%	10.9%
Cubs	Road	29.7%	14.9%	10.5%	RH	30.8%	14.4%	13.2%	L7Days	33.3%	13.5%	20.1%
Cardinals	Home	32.4%	12.9%	13.1%	RH	31.7%	13.5%	12.7%	L7Days	30.9%	14.9%	11.2%
Pirates	Road	30.9%	12.3%	10.8%	RH	30.2%	10.8%	9.3%	L7Days	26.9%	12.8%	7.6%
Mets	Road	36.5%	15.6%	18.7%	RH	34.9%	13.3%	17.6%	L7Days	35.5%	12.3%	18.0%
Nationals	Home	31.9%	13.7%	15.4%	RH	31.8%	14.8%	14.9%	L7Days	31.2%	6.4%	12.8%
Rangers	Home	35.8%	17.0%	17.4%	RH	33.8%	17.4%	14.5%	L7Days	31.4%	19.1%	15.2%
Reds	Road	30.2%	13.7%	11.1%	RH	29.8%	14.3%	9.4%	L7Days	29.3%	13.0%	6.9%
Athletics	Road	34.9%	12.7%	16.3%	RH	33.4%	15.2%	16.8%	L7Days	27.7%	13.5%	12.9%
Phillies	Home	30.5%	14.3%	10.3%	RH	30.9%	11.2%	10.2%	L7Days	32.5%	10.6%	11.2%
Braves	Road	31.5%	13.0%	13.2%	LH	28.1%	16.0%	8.0%	L7Days	35.1%	19.0%	14.9%
Blue Jays	Home	29.4%	13.7%	8.8%	RH	30.6%	14.6%	10.4%	L7Days	23.5%	10.4%	5.0%
Indians	Home	31.1%	12.6%	13.5%	RH	33.7%	11.9%	17.0%	L7Days	32.1%	14.3%	13.9%
Padres	Home	28.7%	13.0%	6.9%	LH	30.7%	12.9%	9.7%	L7Days	32.9%	13.4%	18.1%
Giants	Home	25.3%	5.6%	3.9%	RH	28.3%	8.5%	6.7%	L7Days	26.9%	3.3%	7.5%
Rays	Home	37.7%	15.8%	19.7%	RH	35.9%	17.8%	18.2%	L7Days	30.5%	10.3%	10.6%
Marlins	Road	29.7%	14.6%	9.7%	RH	31.6%	14.7%	11.5%	L7Days	34.8%	17.4%	14.3%

K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher	Team	K% Season	SwStr% Season	K%/SwStr%	K% L30 Days	SwStr% L30 Days	K%/SwStr%
Aaron Blair	ATL
Aaron Nola	PHI	25.4%	10.5%	2.42	30.4%	12.4%	2.45
Alex Cobb	TAM	15.6%	6.9%	2.26	13.0%	5.1%	2.55
Alex Wood	LOS	29.0%	13.3%	2.18	26.8%	14.2%	1.89
Andrew Moore	SEA	10.5%	6.6%	1.59	9.2%	6.5%	1.42
Anibal Sanchez	DET	20.8%	8.8%	2.36	21.2%	7.6%	2.79
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	27.9%	13.0%	2.15	32.8%	15.1%	2.17
Carlos Martinez	STL	25.6%	10.6%	2.42	18.9%	10.4%	1.82
Chris Sale	BOS	36.4%	16.1%	2.26	40.6%	16.4%	2.48
Ervin Santana	MIN	18.3%	9.2%	1.99	17.4%	10.6%	1.64
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	22.7%	9.3%	2.44	24.1%	9.3%	2.59
Homer Bailey	CIN	14.9%	11.0%	1.35	15.1%	11.1%	1.36
Ian Kennedy	KAN	21.3%	9.2%	2.32	23.6%	10.2%	2.31
Jake Arrieta	CHC	22.9%	9.3%	2.46	17.6%	6.6%	2.67
James Shields	CHW	15.7%	8.6%	1.83	9.8%	6.9%	1.42
Jeff Hoffman	COL	19.6%	8.4%	2.33	12.8%	5.5%	2.33
Jeff Samardzija	SFO	25.9%	10.9%	2.38	20.3%	11.0%	1.85
Jhoulys Chacin	SDG	20.0%	8.5%	2.35	19.5%	8.0%	2.44
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	26.5%	11.5%	2.30	32.8%	12.9%	2.54
Jose Urena	MIA	15.9%	8.6%	1.85	19.3%	8.7%	2.22
Luis Severino	NYY	27.6%	12.2%	2.26	29.5%	14.2%	2.08
Marco Estrada	TOR	24.4%	11.5%	2.12	18.8%	9.0%	2.09
Mike Fiers	HOU	23.6%	9.6%	2.46	33.3%	8.8%	3.78
Patrick Corbin	ARI	21.2%	11.0%	1.93	28.5%	13.7%	2.08
Paul Blackburn	OAK	9.0%	6.1%	1.48	9.0%	6.1%	1.48
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	19.1%	11.0%	1.74	18.4%	12.1%	1.52
Steven Matz	NYM	15.7%	6.8%	2.31	14.7%	7.9%	1.86
Trevor Williams	PIT	16.8%	8.2%	2.05	18.0%	6.9%	2.61
Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	18.7%	7.7%	2.43	20.5%	8.0%	2.56
Yu Darvish	TEX	26.4%	11.8%	2.24	25.0%	13.1%	1.91

ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Pitcher	Team	Season ERA	Season SIERA	DIFF	Season xFIP	DIFF	Season FIP	DIFF	Season DRA	DIFF	ERA L30	SIERA L30	DIFF	xFIP L30	DIFF	FIP L30	DIFF
Aaron Blair	ATL
Aaron Nola	PHI	3.37	3.78	0.41	3.56	0.19	3.42	0.05	3.00	-0.37	1.8	3.36	1.56	3.17	1.37	2.8	1
Alex Cobb	TAM	3.57	4.75	1.18	4.55	0.98	4.24	0.67	3.94	0.37	2.39	4.85	2.46	4.5	2.11	4.47	2.08
Alex Wood	LOS	2.17	3.07	0.9	2.8	0.63	2.43	0.26	2.76	0.59	3.04	3.99	0.95	3.57	0.53	3.31	0.27
Andrew Moore	SEA	5.7	5.82	0.12	6.07	0.37	6.58	0.88	8.63	2.93	6.26	6.02	-0.24	6.3	0.04	7.41	1.15
Anibal Sanchez	DET	5.95	4.23	-1.72	4.66	-1.29	5.32	-0.63	6.60	0.65	4.88	4.04	-0.84	4.1	-0.78	3.64	-1.24
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	3.62	3.49	-0.13	3.43	-0.19	3.54	-0.08	3.16	-0.46	5.46	3.1	-2.36	3.2	-2.26	4.02	-1.44
Carlos Martinez	STL	3.34	3.91	0.57	3.7	0.36	3.83	0.49	2.99	-0.35	4.97	4.66	-0.31	4.47	-0.5	5.56	0.59
Chris Sale	BOS	2.48	2.51	0.03	2.64	0.16	1.96	-0.52	1.86	-0.62	1.32	2.26	0.94	2.71	1.39	1.91	0.59
Ervin Santana	MIN	3.26	4.89	1.63	4.92	1.66	4.93	1.67	3.73	0.47	4.25	4.94	0.69	4.93	0.68	5.34	1.09
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	2.83	4.49	1.66	4.31	1.48	4.15	1.32	3.47	0.64	2.45	4.29	1.84	4.14	1.69	3.75	1.3
Homer Bailey	CIN	8.56	5.19	-3.37	4.9	-3.66	6.18	-2.38	9.29	0.73	6.31	5.04	-1.27	4.81	-1.5	6.18	-0.13
Ian Kennedy	KAN	4.61	4.7	0.09	5.04	0.43	5.17	0.56	4.97	0.36	3.86	3.9	0.04	4.08	0.22	4.17	0.31
Jake Arrieta	CHC	4.11	4.12	0.01	4.03	-0.08	4.21	0.1	4.42	0.31	3.38	4.96	1.58	4.76	1.38	4.51	1.13
James Shields	CHW	5.79	5.69	-0.1	6.24	0.45	6.83	1.04	7.50	1.71	7.59	6.32	-1.27	6.82	-0.77	6.94	-0.65
Jeff Hoffman	COL	5.1	4.63	-0.47	4.96	-0.14	4	-1.1	5.60	0.50	6.07	5.83	-0.24	6.26	0.19	5.37	-0.7
Jeff Samardzija	SFO	5.05	3.28	-1.77	3.14	-1.91	3.59	-1.46	3.36	-1.69	6.07	3.69	-2.38	3.62	-2.45	3.89	-2.18
Jhoulys Chacin	SDG	4.26	4.35	0.09	4.17	-0.09	4.38	0.12	4.49	0.23	2.37	4.47	2.1	4.14	1.77	3.7	1.33
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	3.43	3.44	0.01	3.23	-0.2	3.23	-0.2	3.25	-0.18	3.23	2.76	-0.47	2.47	-0.76	3.31	0.08
Jose Urena	MIA	3.78	5.14	1.36	5.51	1.73	5.14	1.36	5.44	1.66	5.04	4.74	-0.3	5.36	0.32	5.38	0.34
Luis Severino	NYY	3.21	3.33	0.12	3.14	-0.07	3.03	-0.18	2.95	-0.26	2.97	3.11	0.14	3.06	0.09	2.18	-0.79
Marco Estrada	TOR	5.52	4.37	-1.15	4.73	-0.79	4.42	-1.1	7.61	2.09	8.83	7.02	-1.81	7.4	-1.43	6.66	-2.17
Mike Fiers	HOU	3.59	4.15	0.56	4.16	0.57	4.92	1.33	5.06	1.47	3.03	3.25	0.22	3.53	0.5	2.98	-0.05
Patrick Corbin	ARI	4.43	4.01	-0.42	3.81	-0.62	4.19	-0.24	5.45	1.02	3.1	3.26	0.16	2.79	-0.31	2.9	-0.2
Paul Blackburn	OAK	2.88	5.52	2.64	5.24	2.36	4.94	2.06	6.46	3.58	2.88	5.52	2.64	5.24	2.36	4.94	2.06
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	5.13	4.51	-0.62	4.61	-0.52	5.42	0.29	6.26	1.13	4.82	4.41	-0.41	4.37	-0.45	3.79	-1.03
Steven Matz	NYM	4.67	4.76	0.09	4.63	-0.04	4.88	0.21	6.00	1.33	5.55	4.72	-0.83	4.57	-0.98	4.05	-1.5
Trevor Williams	PIT	4.74	4.56	-0.18	4.46	-0.28	4	-0.74	4.41	-0.33	4.03	4.01	-0.02	3.71	-0.32	3.25	-0.78
Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	7.19	4.91	-2.28	4.91	-2.28	6.01	-1.18	7.29	0.10	7	4.49	-2.51	4.56	-2.44	5.4	-1.6
Yu Darvish	TEX	3.44	3.82	0.38	3.77	0.33	3.83	0.39	2.80	-0.64	4.45	3.68	-0.77	3.62	-0.83	3.7	-0.75

Alex Wood saw some comeuppance in his HR rate last time out, now up to an 8.3 HR/FB. With a strong defense and the quality of contact he’s allowed, there are no complaints with a .261 BABIP.

Gio Gonzalez has a career low .252 BABIP, supported by not much more than an 18.0 LD%, which isn’t the most stable of batted ball metrics. His 84.4 LOB% is his highest mark in Washington by over 10 points.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher	Team	Team BABIP	Pitcher BABIP	Diff	GB%	Pitcher LD%	Pitcher IFFB%	Pitcher Zcontact	Exit Velocity	Barrels BBE	95+ MPH EV	BBE
Aaron Blair	ATL	0.292
Aaron Nola	PHI	0.297	0.294	-0.003	48.4%	0.201	6.3%	83.7%	86.2	5.10%	30.20%	255
Alex Cobb	TAM	0.284	0.271	-0.013	46.0%	0.22	6.8%	90.9%	87.9	6.00%	35.50%	417
Alex Wood	LOS	0.280	0.261	-0.019	61.9%	0.166	14.6%	83.6%	83.9	2.70%	24.30%	226
Andrew Moore	SEA	0.279	0.235	-0.044	28.3%	0.179	10.5%	91.1%	91.1	8.40%	44.90%	107
Anibal Sanchez	DET	0.309	0.313	0.004	36.2%	0.213	5.4%	87.7%	86.8	8.40%	34.10%	179
Carlos Carrasco	CLE	0.303	0.292	-0.011	43.9%	0.216	9.8%	85.8%	87.1	9.40%	35.10%	299
Carlos Martinez	STL	0.294	0.271	-0.023	49.9%	0.188	10.3%	86.6%	87.3	5.80%	35.10%	345
Chris Sale	BOS	0.305	0.289	-0.016	36.7%	0.209	11.9%	77.5%	86.6	5.60%	30.40%	319
Ervin Santana	MIN	0.298	0.224	-0.074	43.5%	0.16	11.8%	89.4%	86	5.00%	32.20%	382
Gio Gonzalez	WAS	0.293	0.252	-0.041	46.2%	0.18	9.9%	86.6%	85.3	5.50%	28.70%	348
Homer Bailey	CIN	0.293	0.398	0.105	44.8%	0.302	8.3%	85.9%	86.2	4.00%	35.40%	99
Ian Kennedy	KAN	0.299	0.226	-0.073	38.9%	0.135	7.6%	83.3%	89.4	10.50%	34.40%	276
Jake Arrieta	CHC	0.283	0.288	0.005	45.6%	0.225	7.6%	85.2%	86.5	5.50%	31.30%	329
James Shields	CHW	0.288	0.275	-0.013	36.4%	0.169	6.9%	85.2%	87.9	7.80%	38.30%	154
Jeff Hoffman	COL	0.302	0.299	-0.003	37.6%	0.188	5.8%	89.1%	87.4	7.00%	37.30%	201
Jeff Samardzija	SFO	0.317	0.333	0.016	43.1%	0.243	7.4%	83.5%	86.3	5.60%	30.90%	375
Jhoulys Chacin	SDG	0.307	0.285	-0.022	52.9%	0.183	14.6%	89.5%	85.8	5.90%	27.50%	338
Jimmy Nelson	MIL	0.300	0.330	0.03	49.8%	0.209	5.3%	85.5%	85.2	4.50%	31.70%	331
Jose Urena	MIA	0.293	0.250	-0.043	40.0%	0.179	10.7%	88.9%	85.3	9.40%	28.50%	298
Luis Severino	NYY	0.290	0.297	0.007	51.6%	0.184	10.5%	84.7%	87.3	5.90%	35.20%	321
Marco Estrada	TOR	0.307	0.330	0.023	31.9%	0.201	12.7%	80.7%	87.8	8.80%	34.40%	317
Mike Fiers	HOU	0.295	0.270	-0.025	45.0%	0.191	9.3%	85.2%	86.2	7.60%	32.10%	302
Patrick Corbin	ARI	0.294	0.345	0.051	50.7%	0.198	11.2%	86.7%	88.3	7.40%	36.60%	366
Paul Blackburn	OAK	0.292	0.238	-0.054	51.8%	0.169	3.8%	88.1%	86.7	2.40%	34.90%	83
Ricky Nolasco	ANA	0.285	0.298	0.013	41.1%	0.193	6.5%	85.5%	89.3	9.30%	38.10%	354
Steven Matz	NYM	0.320	0.303	-0.017	44.6%	0.203	11.5%	86.6%	87.7	6.00%	37.30%	150
Trevor Williams	PIT	0.308	0.299	-0.009	47.6%	0.204	15.9%	89.5%	85.4	5.30%	30.10%	282
Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	0.315	0.302	-0.013	44.9%	0.199	8.7%	89.7%	88.4	8.80%	41.10%	297
Yu Darvish	TEX	0.289	0.264	-0.025	40.8%	0.23	8.7%	83.2%	85.5	6.60%	31.90%	351

Jimmy Nelson is still allowing a lot of hard contact to LHBs since his breakout (27.7 LD%).

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Alex Wood (1) was the top guy tonight, even with a few new chinks in the armor. Perhaps it’s a blessing that the Dodgers made a late change to Brock Stewart, who is only likely to pitch a few innings before turning it over to the rest of the bullpen.

Value Tier Two

Carlos Carrasco (2) has struck out nearly one-third of batters faced over the last month, though with some hard contact issues. The Angels don’t make a ton of that and his dominance of RHBs should help the cause here.

Aaron Nola (5) has been going deep into games with elite peripherals for over a month now without fail. While we don’t like to go up against the Astros, the cost is much too cheap on DraftKings tonight ($7.5K). Bump him down slightly on FanDuel ($8.7K).

Carlos Martinez (4) is another pitcher going through a bit of a rough patch, as a few of the pitchers on this list have over the last month, but he’s been a bit better over his last two starts with an increase in velocity. He costs less than $9K in a favorable spot hosting the Rockies.

Value Tier Three

Yu Darvish (3) hasn’t been incredibly consistent and his park can make things uncomfortable at a high cost sometimes, but he proved last time out that he still has the ability to go off and win you a GPP every once in a while.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Jimmy Nelson is not in a favorable spot, but he’s facing a struggling offense at least. While we still don’t confidently know the reasons for his massive improvement against LHBs, it’s impossible to ignore. He still does get hit hard occasionally though.

Jake Arrieta is no longer striking out as many batters as we would like from a $9K+ pitcher, but he is dominating contact and is in a favorable spot tonight.

Gio Gonzalez is not what his ERA says he is, but he is in a high strikeout spot in a bit of a power suppressing park.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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