Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
UPDATE: Matt Harvey is replacing Jacob deGrom as tonight’s Mets starter.
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | BAL | 181 | 3.43 | 3.7 | 1.18 | 46.67% | 27.1% | 9.1% | 1.19 | 45.3% |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | PHI | 208.2 | 3.49 | 4.35 | 1.18 | 48.48% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 1.16 | 42.0% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | PIT | 198 | 3.68 | 4.38 | 1.29 | 40.00% | 19.4% | 8.6% | 1.05 | 49.6% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | TBR | 178.2 | 4.53 | 4.26 | 1.37 | 36.67% | 18.4% | 6.0% | 1.46 | 42.4% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | NYM | 228 | 2.88 | 4.26 | 1.15 | 54.55% | 19.8% | 8.1% | 0.67 | 49.1% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | CIN | 220.2 | 2.32 | 3.59 | 1.02 | 71.88% | 24.7% | 6.6% | 0.86 | 47.0% |
| Nate Karns | KCR | TEX | 20.00% | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL | 212.1 | 4.79 | 4.3 | 1.46 | 33.33% | 19.0% | 7.1% | 1.02 | 43.6% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | CHW | 233.1 | 3.39 | 3.53 | 1.08 | 56.25% | 26.1% | 6.7% | 1.04 | 43.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | MIN | 245 | 3.23 | 3.43 | 1.03 | 64.71% | 27.8% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 33.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | COL | 238.2 | 2.87 | 3.61 | 1.1 | 62.50% | 22.5% | 5.3% | 0.68 | 49.5% |
| Alex Wood | LAD | ARI | 69.1 | 3.38 | 3.61 | 1.23 | 50.00% | 25.3% | 8.9% | 0.65 | 54.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | OAK | 214 | 4.21 | 4.51 | 1.32 | 39.39% | 17.1% | 5.8% | 1.35 | 40.7% |
| Mat Latos | TOR | LAA | 70 | 4.89 | 5.4 | 1.49 | 33.33% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 1.41 | 42.9% |
| Adam Conley | MIA | SDP | 145.1 | 3.84 | 4.64 | 1.37 | 32.00% | 21.0% | 10.6% | 0.93 | 37.9% |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | BOS | 129 | 3.7 | 4.09 | 1.32 | 21.43% | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.26 | 36.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | ATL | 206 | 3.54 | 4.25 | 1.13 | 40.63% | 19.0% | 5.7% | 1.09 | 40.1% |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | NYY | 30 | 6 | 4.65 | 1.73 | 22.1% | 13.8% | 0.90 | 47.1% | |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | HOU | 40 | 6.75 | 4.37 | 1.58 | 20.00% | 15.0% | 5.6% | 2.03 | 48.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | WAS | 167 | 2.91 | 3.52 | 1.16 | 54.17% | 24.4% | 5.9% | 0.92 | 47.1% |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | CHC | 73.2 | 3.91 | 4.7 | 1.17 | 30.77% | 17.3% | 6.6% | 1.71 | 35.8% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | KCR | 218.2 | 3.33 | 4.05 | 1.3 | 56.25% | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.11 | 49.4% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | STL | 144.2 | 4.6 | 4.51 | 1.48 | 30.43% | 17.1% | 8.2% | 1.24 | 50.1% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | CLE | 225.1 | 3.47 | 4.08 | 1.2 | 62.50% | 21.3% | 6.4% | 1.04 | 40.1% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | DET | 200.1 | 4.4 | 4.99 | 1.32 | 36.36% | 18.1% | 9.6% | 1.53 | 34.9% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | SFG | 178.1 | 3.84 | 4.46 | 1.33 | 44.44% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 0.96 | 57.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | LAD | 150.1 | 4.19 | 4.1 | 1.25 | 36.00% | 20.9% | 6.7% | 1.68 | 43.3% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | SEA | 161 | 4.02 | 3.97 | 1.17 | 37.50% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.17 | 45.8% |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | TOR | 25.1 | 5.68 | 4.75 | 1.66 | 24.8% | 14.5% | 1.07 | 38.0% | |
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | MIA | 77 | 3.04 | 3.84 | 1.29 | 24.3% | 12.3% | 0.94 | 55.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (vs. CHW, $10800) – This might seem like a somewhat unusual pick for the All-In circle, considering that Kluber has hit a few speed bumps on his way out the gate for the 2017 season, culminating in an unsightly 6.38 ERA and through his first 18.1 innings of work. His K:BB of 18:6 over that stretch is just fine, but his efforts at run prevention have been thwarted by five home runs. He has allowed fewer than 1.0 HR/9 for the past four seasons, so if Kluber returns to his usual ways as far as keeping the ball in the yard then the ERA should follow suit, while the rest of the peripheral stats are already at or near where they’re expected to be for the right-hander. The White Sox have hit just 13 home runs this season, tied for the sixth-lowest total in baseball, so his opponent might aid in lowering Kluber’s homer rate. He dominated the Pale Hose last season, posting a 1.35 ERA in a pair of head-to-head starts, notching a 16:3 K:BB in 13.1 frames with just one homer allowed. None of the salaries on the board for today is particularly egregious, including a handful of top-shelf pitchers who won’t break the bank with a salary between $10k and $11k; Kluber is the most alluring of the bunch.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jon Lester CHC (at CIN, $10600) – The most intriguing subplot of this game involves how many bases Billy Hamilton is going to attempt to steal. Lester has famously had his issues with holding baserunners and Hamilton has not been shy about taking advantage, including a three-steal game against Lester last season. Jose Peraza also had a three-steal performance against Lester, swiping the three bags in Lester’s final start of the 2016 season. Expect those jackrabbits to be running rampant – that is if they can find a way on base.
UPDATE: Matt Harvey is replacing Jacob deGrom as tonight’s Mets starter.
Justin Verlander DET (at MIN, $10300) – Verlander was pummeled in his last start, giving up nine runs to the Indians over 4.0 innings of work, including three home runs allowed (his first bombs surrendered on the year). He struck out just four batters, the second consecutive game with such a low K count, but he more than made up the difference in that previous turn by keeping the Red Sox to a lone unearned run in 7.0 innings pitched. He gets an easier opponent this time around, leaving DFS managers to dream on the 29.45-point effort (DraftKings) that he put up against the White Sox in his first game of the season, but the self-inflicted wounds of his recent past add a dose of doubt to Verlander’s context for tonight.
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. BOS, $6900) – Bundy will likely need to walk between a few landmines to shine tonight against the Red Sox, but his price tag is so incredibly low that he vaults into the Raise category with a high projected profit margin in tonight’s game. Mookie Betts is starting to heat up, a scary statement for every non-Boston pitcher in the AL East, but Boston still has an MLB-low total of seven home runs this season (through 14 games), and jump-starting that total will be a key element of their taking advantage of Oriole Park at Camden Yards to defeat Bundy. The right-hander is coming off three consecutive quality starts, and though his turn against the Sawx was easily his worst of the three, he did keep the ball in the yard and has yet to give up a homer this season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | BAL | 0.305 | 2.56 | 0.282 | 3.72 | 0.216 | 3.7 | 0.271 | 3.77 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | PHI | 0.328 | 3.97 | 0.282 | 3.02 | 0.258 | 4.35 | 0.283 | 4.01 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | PIT | 0.29 | 3.05 | 0.309 | 3.83 | 0.242 | 4.38 | 0.28 | 4.23 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | TBR | 0.324 | 4.24 | 0.358 | 4.78 | 0.276 | 4.26 | 0.31 | 4.54 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | NYM | 0.276 | 2.21 | 0.278 | 3.47 | 0.223 | 4.26 | 0.267 | 3.67 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | CIN | 0.243 | 2.31 | 0.269 | 2.33 | 0.209 | 3.59 | 0.259 | 3.3 |
| Nate Karns | KCR | TEX | ||||||||
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL | 0.376 | 5.7 | 0.317 | 4.12 | 0.288 | 4.3 | 0.34 | 3.95 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | CHW | 0.288 | 3.23 | 0.278 | 3.54 | 0.218 | 3.53 | 0.273 | 3.43 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | MIN | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.278 | 3.12 | 0.21 | 3.43 | 0.262 | 3.52 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFG | COL | 0.289 | 2.3 | 0.268 | 3.34 | 0.235 | 3.61 | 0.291 | 3.05 |
| Alex Wood | LAD | ARI | 0.302 | 6.38 | 0.266 | 2.29 | 0.223 | 3.61 | 0.292 | 3.17 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | OAK | 0.338 | 4.75 | 0.328 | 3.76 | 0.275 | 4.51 | 0.304 | 4.46 |
| Mat Latos | TOR | LAA | 0.326 | 4.86 | 0.355 | 4.91 | 0.266 | 5.4 | 0.28 | 5.32 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | SDP | 0.334 | 4.41 | 0.312 | 3.66 | 0.238 | 4.64 | 0.288 | 4.25 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | BOS | 0.318 | 3.7 | 0.317 | 3.69 | 0.253 | 4.09 | 0.301 | 4.24 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | ATL | 0.307 | 3.26 | 0.289 | 3.78 | 0.235 | 4.25 | 0.266 | 3.96 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | NYY | 0.374 | 4.76 | 0.362 | 6.75 | 0.264 | 4.65 | 0.337 | 4.66 |
| Alex Cobb | TBR | HOU | 0.493 | 10.2 | 0.306 | 4.68 | 0.312 | 4.37 | 0.328 | 5.37 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | WAS | 0.263 | 2.34 | 0.318 | 3.55 | 0.243 | 3.52 | 0.304 | 3.24 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | CHC | 0.337 | 4.5 | 0.318 | 3.46 | 0.239 | 4.7 | 0.248 | 5.21 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | KCR | 0.263 | 2.89 | 0.318 | 3.45 | 0.242 | 4.05 | 0.293 | 4.11 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | STL | 0.364 | 4.26 | 0.347 | 4.92 | 0.288 | 4.51 | 0.325 | 4.59 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | CLE | 0.282 | 3.22 | 0.312 | 3.55 | 0.247 | 4.08 | 0.293 | 3.75 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | DET | 0.329 | 4.08 | 0.323 | 4.48 | 0.237 | 4.99 | 0.256 | 5.13 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | SFG | 0.314 | 4.16 | 0.317 | 3.48 | 0.245 | 4.46 | 0.28 | 4.36 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | LAD | 0.302 | 4.25 | 0.347 | 4.13 | 0.245 | 4.1 | 0.272 | 4.79 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | SEA | 0.235 | 2.84 | 0.315 | 4.31 | 0.234 | 3.97 | 0.274 | 4.04 |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | TOR | 0.415 | |||||||
| Trevor Cahill | SDP | MIA |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Cole Hamels TEX (vs. KC, $9300) – The peripheral stats are uglier than Hamels or the Rangers would like to see, with an 11:7 K:BB through 18.0 innings that represents, a heavy downtick in strikeouts compared to previous seasons, with a higher-than-average walk rate that will catch some eyeballs due to its matching last year’s 3.5 BB/9. He’s also allowed three home runs in three starts, resulting in a home run rate that is a bit higher than usual, painting a muddy statistical picture as the southpaw heads into his fourth start of the season. The Royals aren’t the low-strikeout ballclub that they once were but are still aggressive at the plate (fourth fewest walks in MLB), which combined with the homer-suppressing ballpark should help Hamels to lower those ratios. He’s a tweener based on price alone, with a salary that fits well below that of the five aces on board yet sits comfortably above the nearest tier of SP2’s, with a high floor but a ceiling that feels as if it’s lowering with each successive start.
Drew Pomeranz BOS (at BAL, $6700) – Here’s the thing with Baltimore: their lineup is heavily populated by right-handed hitters with reverse platoon splits. Manny Machado has a career slugging percentage that is 38 points lower when he has the platoon advantage; Adam Jones loses 62 points of slug against lefties; Mark Trumbo gains 20 points, but Jonathan Schoop has slugged just .342 (minus-121 points compared to performance vs. RHP). Meanwhile, big lefty Chris Davis has a more predictable platoon split, dropping 82 points of slugging when facing a southpaw. It’s still a robust lineup playing in a park that encourages homers, so tread lightly when rostering Pomeranz, but the context is not as bad as it first appears when a left-hander faces Baltimore. The salary is just too low to ignore, making Pomeranz an interesting play in large tournaments.
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. SEA, $7800) – There’s a clear dividing line in today’s cohort of starting pitchers, and the salaries essentially draw the boundaries between the SP1’s and the SP2’s. In general, the pitchers who cost $10k and up are worth the extra scrilla, as they are better options by a significant chunk over their $7k-8k counterparts, as the risk/reward is baked right into the price tag with pitchers like Manaea. He has been pounded for 12 runs (10 earned) in 16.1 innings, largely thanks to nine walks and a major-league-leading four hit-by-pitches, but the count of 20 Ks over that stretch has kept him fantasy relevant. Manaea’s left-handedness, low arm slot and correspondingly heavy platoon splits will help to neutralize the Mariners’ big lefty bats of Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, though it leaves him vulnerable to the awakening boomstick of Nelson Cruz.
Taijuan Walker ARI (vs. LAD, $7900)
Jose Quintana CHW (vs. CLE, $7700) – Quintana has been an incredibly consistent pitcher over the past four-plus seasons, wearing the no.2 starter hat and lining up behind Chris Sale. Now Sale is gone and Quintana is the de facto ace, a role for which he is ill-suited, but the early statistical returns suggest a step backward. It’s early and it’s only 17.2 innings, but Quintana’s nine walks and four homers allowed have led to rates in those categories that are twice as high as he had established. I think a turnaround is coming, but it may not start tonight.
Tanner Roark WAS (at NYM, $8000)
Johnny Cueto SF (at COL, $8100) – You know the drill: Toss a high-end starting pitcher into Coors Field, cross your fingers and cover your eyes. The focus is on the downside when a great pitcher is stuck in Coors, and the strength of the Rockies’ bats further raises the difficulty level. He’s a contrarian play because of the venue and one could roll the dice on Cueto to stand out from the crowd in large tournies, a infrequent reward that can be rich when the stars align.
Jeremy Hellickson (vs. ATL, $7300)
Tyler Glasnow (vs. NYY, $6600) – In case of emergency, break glass. Be warned: this is not a cash game play. Glasnow can sink a whole ship in the span of an inning, and I would rather he sink one of the many dinghies that I send out to scout the large (and cheap) tournaments than let him at the controls of one of my main lineups. The intrigue here comes from Glasnow’s massive upside in strikeouts, and he showed glimpses of the potential to dominate in his last outing with seven Ks against two walks in 5.0 innings against the World Champion Cubs.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at OAK, $7500)
CC Sabathia NYY (at PIT, $7400)
Alex Cobb TB (vs. HOU, $7100)
Adam Wainwright STL (at MIL, $6000) – How the mighty have fallen. He’s so cheap that Waino is worth a flier in large tournaments, especially against a Milwaukee lineup that is prone to strikeouts. Of course, they’re also prone to homers this season, currently pacing MLB by a healthy margin with 32 home runs as a team (the Mets are second with 25). Pull the pin, toss the grenade and plug your ears.
Bartolo Colon ATL (at PHI, $6900)
Adam Conley MIA (at SD, $7000)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. STL, $5700)
Alex Wood LAD (at ARI, $6800)
Mike Fiers HOU (at TB, $7200)
Trevor Cahill SD (vs. MIA, $5600)
Nate Karns KC (at TEX, $5900)
Hector Santiago MIN (vs. DET, $6400) – Tigers feast on southpaws. Santiago might as well have a raw steak hanging from his neck.
Alex Meyer LAA (vs. TOR, $4700)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Tyler Chatwood COL (vs. SF, $6100) – Chatwood was great last season, but all of his good work was done on the road with a 1.69 ERA. His ERA at home was 6.12. Fold.
Tim Adleman CIN (vs. CHC, $4500)
Mat Latos TOR (at LAA, $5500)