Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 29th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair | ATL | CHC | |||||||||
| Lester | CHC | ATL | 225.1 | 3.24 | 3.18 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 25.0% | 5.7% | 0.72 | 1.68 |
| Straily | CIN | PIT | 25 | 4.68 | 4.46 | 1.24 | 14.3% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 1.08 | 0.87 |
| Nicasio | PIT | CIN | 73.1 | 4.05 | 3.78 | 1.51 | 35.7% | 25.4% | 12.1% | 0.37 | 1.26 |
| Kluber | CLE | PHI | 241 | 3.70 | 3.03 | 1.08 | 57.1% | 27.2% | 5.2% | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Morgan | PHI | CLE | 84.1 | 4.48 | 4.94 | 1.25 | 13.9% | 4.8% | 1.49 | 0.62 | |
| Rodon | CWS | BAL | 152.1 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 1.42 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 0.71 | 1.61 | |
| Wright | BAL | CWS | 49.2 | 6.16 | 5.15 | 1.53 | 13.3% | 8.4% | 1.81 | 0.89 | |
| Tanaka | NYY | BOS | 171.2 | 3.46 | 3.34 | 1.00 | 66.7% | 22.8% | 4.7% | 1.36 | 1.51 |
| Owens | BOS | NYY | 63 | 4.57 | 4.66 | 1.37 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 1.00 | 0.71 | |
| Peavy | SFG | NYM | 119.2 | 4.06 | 4.30 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 17.4% | 5.3% | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Matz | NYM | SFG | 44.1 | 3.25 | 3.62 | 1.29 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 1.02 | 1.39 | |
| Sanchez | TOR | TBR | 112.1 | 2.88 | 4.22 | 1.20 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 0.88 | 2.74 | |
| Smyly | TBR | TOR | 80.1 | 3.36 | 3.16 | 1.11 | 50.0% | 28.4% | 6.7% | 1.57 | 0.78 |
| Santiago | LAA | TEX | 194.1 | 3.61 | 4.46 | 1.24 | 16.7% | 20.7% | 8.9% | 1.48 | 0.59 |
| Lewis | TEX | LAA | 222.2 | 4.61 | 4.39 | 1.25 | 11.8% | 17.0% | 5.1% | 1.25 | 0.76 |
| Fulmer | DET | MIN | |||||||||
| Hughes | MIN | DET | 167.2 | 4.40 | 4.28 | 1.27 | 45.0% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 1.66 | 0.90 |
| Conley | MIA | MIL | 74 | 3.77 | 3.84 | 1.28 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 0.85 | 0.94 | |
| Davies | MIL | MIA | 36.1 | 4.71 | 4.61 | 1.43 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 0.50 | 2.95 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | STL | 141 | 3.32 | 2.85 | 1.11 | 52.4% | 28.9% | 5.4% | 0.89 | 1.32 |
| Leake | STL | WAS | 202.1 | 3.87 | 4.21 | 1.20 | 45.0% | 15.2% | 6.4% | 0.98 | 1.96 |
| Chatwood | COL | ARI | 19.1 | 2.79 | 3.75 | 1.14 | 25.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 0.93 | 1.89 |
| Ray | ARI | COL | 140 | 3.47 | 4.19 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 21.5% | 9.7% | 0.58 | 1.23 |
| Fiers | HOU | OAK | 197 | 3.93 | 3.85 | 1.26 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 1.37 | 0.92 | |
| Manaea | OAK | HOU | |||||||||
| Medlen | KCR | SEA | 69.2 | 3.75 | 4.34 | 1.29 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 0.78 | 1.54 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | KCR | 219.2 | 3.32 | 3.46 | 1.18 | 81.0% | 23.3% | 7.9% | 0.94 | 2.11 |
| Vargas | SDP | LAD | |||||||||
| Wood | LAD | SDP | 201.2 | 3.88 | 4.21 | 1.36 | 58.3% | 17.0% | 7.5% | 0.71 | 1.85 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (at PHI) – I tend to be pretty conservative with the all-in, saving the power move for pitchers who are nearly a sure thing and also possess high upside. If a slate doesn’t have a pitcher worthy of the label, then I’ll go so far as to leave this space empty. But I’m willing to roll the dice on Kluber. I didn’t really see anything wrong with him while the right-hander was getting hit hard in his first few starts, and he broke out with a dominant turn against the power-packed Tigers his last time toeing the rubber, including two base runners and 10 strikeouts over 8.0 frames, with the only blemish being a solo home run off the bat of Jarrod Saltalamacchia (who is currently channeling Mickey Mantle). Kluber is back, and this time he gets to face what might be the worst offense in baseball, as the Phillies currently rank dead-last in the league with 3.27 runs scored per game (yet the Phils are 12-10). Recent history tells us that there’s an elevated risk of blow-up involved here, but I think that Kluber has the best mix of talent and context among the pitchers on today’s slate.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at STL) – Stras looks in his first several starts of 2016 as he has since his first year in the majors, and he looks completely in control of the location of his pitches, hitting targets on both sides of the plate with ease. The Cardinals continue to mash with players who are hardly household names,leading the majors with 137 runs scored and an average of 6.23 runs per game. It might not matter if Strasburg is on his game, and his buzzsaw cuts deeply when the blades are spinning properly, but the Cardinals will look for one big inning where they can open the floodgates.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. KC) – King Felix has been giving away free passes like he owes them as reparations to all of the batters that he has silenced for the past ten years. The pitcher whose career walk rate is just 2.5 BB/9 (6.9 percent) has more than doubled that rate this season, with 5.4 BB/9 (14.2 percent) in his first 25 innings of 2016. The walks will finally get a reprieve against the Royals, who are the most contact-driven ballclub of the modern era, and his performance will likely be determined by the results on balls in play.
Jon Lester CHC (at ATL) – Lester represents the All Day special, as the Cubs-Braves tilt is the only early game on the schedule (this happens a lot with the Cubs) and he will only be available in tournaments that include the outlier game. Lester is on fire to start the season with roto stats that include a 1.98 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, 23 strikeouts against five walks and a pair of wins to his credit. It’s easy for him to hide in that rotation while pitching behind Jake Arrieta, but Lester has been a difference-maker thus far for the Cubs. Today, he gets an easy opponent to try and further pad his stats.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair | 0.247 | 0.732 | |||||||||
| Lester | 0.275 | 3.44 | 0.287 | 3.17 | 0.226 | 0.625 | 0.296 | 2.94 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 25.0% |
| Straily | 0.286 | 5.06 | 0.288 | 3.21 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 0.229 | 4.73 | 0.2 | 0.03 | 20.0% |
| Nicasio | 0.395 | 6.23 | 0.274 | 3.14 | 0.248 | 0.702 | 0.348 | 3.06 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 25.4% |
| Kluber | 0.325 | 4.05 | 0.245 | 3.34 | 0.244 | 0.678 | 0.302 | 3.01 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Morgan | 0.270 | 4.12 | 0.351 | 4.59 | 0.261 | 0.723 | 0.276 | 4.88 | 0.266 | 0.01 | 13.9% |
| Rodon | 0.240 | 3.45 | 0.353 | 3.99 | 0.241 | 0.674 | 0.309 | 3.85 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Wright | 0.403 | 5.68 | 0.340 | 6.23 | 0.250 | 0.693 | 0.294 | 6.11 | 0.285 | 0.00 | 13.3% |
| Tanaka | 0.282 | 3.86 | 0.287 | 3.08 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.243 | 3.89 | 0.215 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Owens | 0.306 | 4.22 | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.293 | 4.28 | 0.253 | 0.02 | 18.4% | ||
| Peavy | 0.318 | 3.73 | 0.332 | 4.65 | 0.243 | 0.707 | 0.291 | 3.81 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 17.4% |
| Matz | 0.288 | 3.38 | 0.264 | 0.702 | 0.309 | 3.63 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 23.5% | ||
| Sanchez | 0.361 | 3.70 | 0.196 | 2.08 | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.235 | 4.40 | 0.209 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Smyly | 0.263 | 1.80 | 0.288 | 3.42 | 0.273 | 0.805 | 0.268 | 3.94 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 28.4% |
| Santiago | 0.276 | 2.19 | 0.316 | 3.91 | 0.255 | 0.735 | 0.249 | 4.80 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 20.7% |
| Lewis | 0.329 | 4.60 | 0.314 | 4.62 | 0.247 | 0.702 | 0.291 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 17.0% |
| Fulmer | 0.242 | 0.696 | |||||||||
| Hughes | 0.323 | 4.12 | 0.361 | 4.71 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.304 | 4.61 | 0.289 | 0.01 | 15.0% |
| Conley | 0.373 | 6.17 | 0.310 | 3.52 | 0.229 | 0.666 | 0.311 | 3.56 | 0.251 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Davies | 0.260 | 1.72 | 0.339 | 6.97 | 0.256 | 0.683 | 0.283 | 4.01 | 0.245 | 0.02 | 15.3% |
| Strasburg | 0.243 | 2.42 | 0.312 | 4.01 | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.308 | 2.79 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 28.9% |
| Leake | 0.317 | 4.19 | 0.282 | 3.50 | 0.247 | 0.713 | 0.268 | 4.15 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Chatwood | 0.222 | 0.00 | 0.265 | 0.739 | 0.286 | 3.68 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 15.0% | ||
| Ray | 0.293 | 2.61 | 0.319 | 3.61 | 0.255 | 0.686 | 0.306 | 3.57 | 0.244 | 0.01 | 21.5% |
| Fiers | 0.297 | 3.45 | 0.332 | 4.37 | 0.247 | 0.699 | 0.285 | 4.25 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 23.0% |
| Manaea | 0.250 | 0.755 | |||||||||
| Medlen | 0.311 | 3.96 | 0.303 | 3.51 | 0.240 | 0.714 | 0.284 | 3.99 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 17.7% |
| Hernandez | 0.303 | 3.92 | 0.284 | 2.66 | 0.264 | 0.729 | 0.281 | 3.68 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Vargas | 0.246 | 0.731 | |||||||||
| Wood | 0.246 | 2.98 | 0.343 | 4.26 | 0.242 | 0.682 | 0.313 | 3.74 | 0.269 | 0.01 | 17.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at BOS) – Tanaka is up to his usual tricks, posting an excellent K:BB of 23:6 en route to a 2.92 ERA in 24.2 innings this season, and (unlike last season) he’s been able to limit the home runs, with just two homers allowed. Boston represents a tough foe and they have gotten to Tanaka in the past: in 40.0 career innings against Boston, Tanaka has a 5.13 ERA with eight home runs allowed. Tread with caution.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at BAL) – Anyone who reads this column regularly knows that I really like Rodon this year, but even so I won’t be testing him in Baltimore against the heavy-hitting Orioles, at least not in DFS. His lefty-ness plays well against the Orioles, considering that Chris Davis loses 90 points of slugging when he’s on the wrong end of the platoon and that right-handed sluggers Manny Machado and Adam Jones actually have reverse splits in their careers so far – Machado has slugged 62 points higher against right-handed pitchers than he has southpaws, and Jones has a slug that’s more than 50 points lower versus left-handers. So it might not be quite as ugly as it appears on the surface, but this gate is best avoided.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (at TB) – Coming off of a terrible start against the A’s, many gamers will fade Sanchez now that the pit of his downside has been discovered, but it has also lowered his price tag as he heads into a start against the Rays in Tropicana, a team that he shut down in that same venue in his first start of this season. Sanchez has very heavy platoon splits – compare his right-handed opponents’ line of .151/.218/.177 to his lefty slash of .256/.359/.444 – and he is to be avoided against teams that lean heavily to the left at the plate, at least until he proves otherwise. Lucky for Sanchez, the Rays are not only the owners of the lowest runs total in the majors as well as the lowest team OBP, but they also have a team platoon split that leans to the left and have only hit .211 against right-handers this season. Players like Evan Longoria, Logan Forsythe and Steven Souza feast on southpaws, but the only weapon that the Rays really have from the left side of the plate is Corey Dickerson (who is a great play today, particularly if not going with Sanchez).
Steven Matz NYM (vs. SF) – Nobody said it would be easy. Matz has given up as many runs this season (nine) as he did last year in the majors, but this time around it took him less than half the innings, as the Marlins torched him for seven runs before the second inning was finished in the lefty’s first start of the year. He has coasted through the last two starts, spinning a combined 13.1 innings against the Braves and Indians (apparently he’s taking a tour of racist mascots) of 1.35-ERA baseball, including 17 strikeouts against just two walks. That first start was a minor hiccup for a player who has made run prevention his specialty since turning pro, and gamers should enjoy any residual discount before his price comes back up to his skill level.
Drew Smyly TB (vs. TOR) – Smyly has added “strikeout artist” to his resume, an element which catapults his fantasy value into the next tier of starting pitchers, but a left-handed flyball pitcher is meat on a stick for the carnivorous offense of the Blue Jays, and the alpha Jay has led by example: it’s only a dozen plate appearances, but Josh Donaldson has already wiped that Smyly off his face with four extra-base hits (including two homers) and a batting average north of .500 in their head-to-head meetings.
Sean Manaea OAK (vs. HOU) – Two different pitchers, making their debuts against two of the most strikeout-heavy offenses in the American League. Debut pitchers are completely unpredictable, as some succeed beyond all expectations and opposing teams (with minimal scouting reports on the player) can struggle to adjust to new arms, while other rookies will crumble under the pressure of the crowds. Manaea has been a very inconsistent pitcher as a pro, flashing plus stuff one start only to fall flat in the next, so he turns up the dials of volatility. With he and Fulmer, there is a very interesting buy opportunity here, that is if you can stomach the risk.
Michael Fulmer DET (at MIN)
Hector Santiago LAA (at TEX)
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. COL)
Adam Conley MIA (at MIL)
Mike Leake STL (vs. WAS)
Aaron Blair ATL (vs. CHC)
Alex Wood LAD (vs. SD)
Mike Fiers HOU (at OAK)
Colby Lewis TEX (vs. LAA)
Juan Nicasio PIT (vs. CIN)
Kris Medlen KC (at SEA)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. MIA)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. DET)
Jake Peavy SF (at NYM)
Dan Straily CIN (at PIT)
Henry Owens BOS (vs. NYY)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Wright BAL (vs. CHW)
Cesar Vargas SD (at LAD)
Adam Morgan PHI (vs. CLE)
Tyler Chatwood COL (at ARI) – He’s fold-worthy whether pitching at altitude or sea level, and since Chase Field is a mini version of Coors in terms of elevation (1000 feet versus 5000 feet above sea level), Chatwood gets an extra ding to his value.
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