Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 5th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-06 04:21:56

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Desclafani	CIN	PIT	246	3.77	4.06	1.32	20.0%	19.6%	6.6%	0.88	1.26
Taillon	PIT	CIN	46	3.52	3.32	1.15		20.0%	2.7%	1.37	2.30
Tomlin	CLE	NYY	186.1	3.28	3.89	1.01	23.1%	19.3%	3.0%	1.84	0.99
Pineda	NYY	CLE	280	4.69	3.20	1.28	75.0%	25.2%	4.7%	1.32	1.49
Samardzija	SFG	WAS	348	4.71	4.24	1.27	60.0%	17.9%	5.7%	1.24	1.11
Gonzalez	WAS	SFG	297.1	4.00	3.94	1.40	46.7%	22.1%	8.9%	0.64	1.76
Syndergaard	NYM	DET	273.1	2.90	2.86	1.09		28.7%	5.1%	0.86	1.60
Verlander	DET	NYM	280.2	3.46	3.76	1.07	35.0%	23.7%	6.4%	0.96	0.80
Snell	TBR	MIN	49.2	3.08	4.49	1.43		22.8%	11.6%	0.36	1.26
Gallardo	BAL	CWS	250.2	4.02	4.87	1.48	50.0%	15.5%	9.7%	0.86	1.48
Gonzalez	CWS	BAL	240	4.57	4.52	1.36	40.0%	17.9%	8.2%	1.24	1.15
Perez	TEX	HOU	211	4.31	4.83	1.44	37.5%	12.3%	8.7%	0.68	2.29
Keuchel	HOU	TEX	371	3.37	3.24	1.14	50.0%	22.3%	6.3%	0.82	2.75
De La Cruz	ATL	STL	23.2	3.80	4.98	1.27		11.8%	4.9%	1.52	1.07
Garcia	STL	ATL	251	3.33	3.72	1.21	28.6%	18.9%	6.9%	0.65	2.54
Liriano	TOR	KCR	300.1	4.17	3.89	1.36	12.5%	24.8%	10.7%	1.02	1.84
Gee	KCR	TOR	113	5.10	4.38	1.61	50.0%	16.4%	6.8%	1.51	1.36
Phelps	MIA	COL	166.1	3.90	3.98	1.29	42.9%	20.8%	7.9%	0.81	1.17
De La Rosa	COL	MIA	234	4.65	4.35	1.44	40.0%	19.9%	10.2%	1.12	1.71
Anderson	MIL	ARI	252.2	4.63	4.45	1.35	40.0%	17.8%	7.2%	1.28	1.09
Shipley	ARI	MIL	11.1	4.76	4.90	1.59		16.3%	10.2%	2.38	1.64
Lester	CHC	OAK	333.1	3.19	3.41	1.12	65.0%	24.7%	6.3%	0.89	1.54
Overton	OAK	CHC	18.1	9.33	6.06	2.18		11.8%	6.5%	4.42	0.38
Wright	BOS	LAD	210.1	3.51	4.50	1.26		18.7%	8.7%	0.86	1.17
Kazmir	LAD	BOS	299.1	3.61	3.98	1.23	63.2%	22.1%	7.8%	1.14	1.13
Lincecum	LAA	SEA	111.1	5.50	4.94	1.73	40.0%	17.7%	11.5%	1.37	1.27
Hernandez	SEA	LAA	282.1	3.51	3.69	1.22	81.0%	21.9%	7.8%	1.02	2.06
Hellickson	PHI	SDP	277.1	4.19	4.09	1.24		19.6%	6.1%	1.33	1.16
Friedrich	SDP	PHI	132.2	4.95	4.62	1.62		17.2%	9.9%	0.88	1.41

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

It’s a full slate today, but there isn’t a pitcher on board that is worth all my chips. Justin Verlander is priced like an All-In ace ($13700 on DraftKings), and his penchant for long outings in addition to his recent success certainly puts him near the top of the list, but he has neither the theoretical floor nor ceiling to justify such an expensive outlay of salary cap dollars. Noah Syndergaard was worthy of this space for the first few months of the season, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant since it was revealed that he is pitching with bone chips in his elbow, and a similar pattern of early-season dominance yet recent struggle has been on display from veterans Jon Lester and the recently-activated Felix Hernandez. There’s plenty of intrigue on today’s slate, but none that warrants pushing the whole stack to the middle of the table.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Justin Verlander DET (vs. NYM) – Verlander might have the safest floor among today’s pitchers, and his penchant for going deep into ballgames gives him an additional edge over the competition, but his hit rate (the second-lowest of his career) is likely to regress, the homer rate is the highest of his career and the current K rate would be the second-best mark of his illustrious tenure. He has thrown 7.0 or more innings with nine or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts, in addition to a six-start streak of two or fewer runs allowed, a performance that has boosted his price tag to uncomfortable heights. The Mets bolstered their offense with the addition of Jay Bruce at the trade deadline, a move that merely covers for the loss of the recently-disabled Yoenis Cespedes for the time being.

Jon Lester CHC (at OAK) – If looking just at recent performance, then Lester would take a more distant backseat to Verlander as the best option on tonight’s slate, but Lester has been the superior option for the vast majority of the season and he has shown signs of breaking out of his mini-slump. In his last start, Lester blanked the Mariners for six solid frames in an interleague matchup, striking out seven batters with four hits and two walks allowed. Of course, in the start prior, he walked five Brewers (a season-high) in giving up four runs over just 4.0 frames, so he is obviously not out of the woods yet. The A’s know Lester quite well and losing left-handed bat Josh Reddick as a casualty of the trade deadline will only act to exaggerate a team OPS split that favors right-right-handed pitchers by 20 points. It’s nearly a toss-up between the two veterans for the top spot, and the cheaper price tag attached to Lester makes him the far superior value even if he falls behind Verlander in today’s rankings.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at DET) – Thor cleared 29 or more points on DraftKings seven times in his first 14 starts this season but he hasn’t cleared that mark in any of his last seven starts. In fact, he’s only cleared 20 points twice in his last seven games. It could be that he is succumbing to the inevitable wear of a long season spent throwing 100-mph fastballs, or perhaps the bone chips that were revealed to exist in his throwing elbow are compromising his performance, but the facts of the case are that he has not been the dominant force that would have earned him the top spot in today’s rankings just a month-and-a-half ago. He also hasn’t topped eight strikeouts in any of his last seven games, has tossed more than 6.0 frames just once in that stretch and has given up fewer than three runs in just two of those starts, three times being held under 85 total pitches in the ballgame. He has the stuff to turn things around, but such a rebound is not likely in the cards for tonight’s start.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Desclafani	0.347	4.61	0.287	2.81	0.261	0.727	0.317	3.69	0.267	0.00	19.6%
Taillon	0.336	3.67	0.287	3.32	0.247	0.706	0.304	3.89	0.268	0.03	20.0%
Tomlin	0.251	2.52	0.338	3.93	0.247	0.725	0.241	4.67	0.233	0.01	19.3%
Pineda	0.329	4.49	0.328	4.86	0.254	0.741	0.333	3.58	0.269	0.01	25.2%
Samardzija	0.357	5.75	0.294	3.77	0.247	0.723	0.295	4.25	0.263	0.00	17.9%
Gonzalez	0.279	3.36	0.323	4.18	0.266	0.724	0.327	3.40	0.259	0.00	22.1%
Syndergaard	0.304	3.41	0.254	2.47	0.269	0.750	0.309	2.73	0.233	0.01	28.7%
Verlander	0.268	2.89	0.288	4.03	0.241	0.709	0.266	3.49	0.219	0.01	23.7%
Santana	0.310	4.03	0.308	3.61	0.241	0.704	0.287	4.03	0.253	0.00	17.5%
Snell	0.295	2.77	0.290	3.19	0.259	0.746	0.317	3.19	0.242	0.03	22.8%
Gallardo	0.348	4.96	0.316	3.16	0.250	0.699	0.307	4.32	0.271	0.00	15.5%
Gonzalez	0.339	3.92	0.320	5.20	0.261	0.769	0.294	4.58	0.261	0.00	17.9%
Perez	0.242	1.99	0.345	4.94	0.243	0.743	0.299	4.25	0.273	0.00	12.3%
Keuchel	0.228	2.74	0.297	3.55	0.263	0.748	0.287	3.31	0.235	0.00	22.3%
De La Cruz	0.348	5.56	0.346	2.19	0.261	0.761	0.263	5.08	0.26	0.01	11.8%
Garcia	0.284	2.89	0.288	3.45	0.236	0.643	0.288	3.45	0.243	0.00	18.9%
Liriano	0.301	3.86	0.313	4.26	0.273	0.735	0.299	3.98	0.236	0.00	24.8%
Gee	0.390	5.46	0.341	4.74	0.258	0.780	0.345	4.87	0.31	0.00	16.4%
Phelps	0.323	4.25	0.282	3.63	0.270	0.777	0.300	3.63	0.248	0.00	20.8%
De La Rosa	0.319	5.28	0.344	4.64	0.275	0.742	0.304	4.46	0.258	0.00	19.9%
Anderson	0.304	4.08	0.365	5.11	0.262	0.733	0.300	4.52	0.267	0.00	17.8%
Shipley					0.252	0.710	0.303	6.48	0.295	0.00	16.3%
Lester	0.274	3.09	0.290	3.21	0.255	0.718	0.287	3.29	0.23	0.00	24.7%
Overton			0.494	6.75	0.249	0.742	0.373	9.30	0.391	0.00	11.8%
Wright	0.277	3.42	0.307	3.57	0.248	0.735	0.272	4.02	0.234	0.01	18.7%
Kazmir	0.304	4.00	0.305	3.46	0.274	0.770	0.280	4.06	0.236	0.00	22.1%
Lincecum	0.309	3.13	0.437	8.29	0.249	0.738	0.341	5.15	0.297	0.00	17.7%
Hernandez	0.310	3.97	0.295	3.01	0.257	0.721	0.283	3.93	0.236	0.00	21.9%
Hellickson	0.342	4.20	0.309	4.18	0.238	0.682	0.283	4.28	0.25	0.00	19.6%
Friedrich	0.303	4.40	0.358	5.25	0.256	0.683	0.334	4.26	0.286	0.00	17.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Felix Hernandez (vs. LAA) – King Felix earns the top spot on tonight’s Call list, though his ranking is tentative at best, as Hernandez has only been back from injury for three starts and those few outings have given his owners little confidence that he is ready to resume a Raise roll after an effective first half that was fraught with warning signs. He walked five batters ni his last start, the third time this season that Felix has given away that many free passes, and though he struck out eight batters and surrendered just two runs, the lack of efficiency kept at just 5.0 innings pitched. He has only whiffed more than six batters in three of his 13 starts this season, and his K/BB is under 2.0 with 66 whiffs against 34 free passes in 80.2 innings this season. The lone bright spot lies in his opponent, as the Angels have an above-average offense but one that loses a ton of value if Mike Trout is out of the lineup, as was yesterday due to a head cold. Another day without Trout in the Anaheim lineup greatly enhances Felix’s value, potentially pushing him into Raise territory.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. CLE) – Pineda has been the poster boy for why FIP is an insufficient statistic, as his excellent ratios of strikeouts-to-walks fuels a relatively-low FIP (3.89) despite high rates of hits allowed that have pushed his ERA up to 5.13 this season. The discrepancy may not be as harsh as last season, but then Pineda has walked two-thirds more hitters as 2015 (35 walks to 21) despite having pitched less than three-quarters as many innings (119.1 IP against 160.1), and his AL-leading 10.8 K/9 has thus far failed to make up the difference. He has given up exactly five runs in three of his last five starts, with 12 walks allowed across 30.0 innings over that stretch, one that includes a 4.80 ERA and five homers allowed, though two of those turns came against the tough offenses of the Red Sox and Orioles.

Blake Snell TB (vs. MIN) – Snel is on an excellent string of run prevention, coughing up just nine total runs over his last five starts and 29.1 innings pitched to bring his ERA down to its current 3.08 mark. However, his peripheral stats tell a different story, with an excellent 33 Ks but an untenable 14 walks allowed over that stretch. He has enjoyed three of his best starts in his brief major league tenure over the past few weeks, including the three highest K-counts of his career highlighting his performance over his last four starts. Those three games are also the highest-scoring contests on his resume from a DFS standpoint, scoring 19.90 or more points on DraftKings in each of the starts with seven or more strikeouts.

Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. CIN) – He has been very strong since returning from the disabled list, with three starts of a 3.00 composite ERA and a pristine 16:0 KL:BB over 18.0 innings, including exactly 6.0 frames recorded in each game over that stretch. The streak extends to four games if extending back before his most recent trip to the disabled list, a run of quality starts that encourages optimism with respect to Taillon’s rest-of-season value. He has actually recorded a QS in six of his eight turns at the highest level, though he has yet to go deeper than six full frames, but the loss of Jay Bruce at the trade deadline takes some sting out of the Cincy lineup and could pave the way for the longest outing in Taillon’s brief big-league tenure.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. ATL) – We all know that the Braves have the weakest offense in the bigs, that they trail the world in home runs as a team by 25 bombs and that they have baseball’s lowest slugging percentage by 25 points. Matt Kemp doesn’t change that, though he does give the team a threat against southpaws to counter-balance the fact that the team’s only other real threat is left-handed bat Freddie Freeman. In fact, Kemp already has one home run and a .357 batting average against Garcia in 14 career matchups. Garcia isn’t about to match his random 13-K explosion from earlier in the season, but his soft opponents could easily help him to one of the top-10 pitcher scores of the day.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at PIT) – The right-hander has been very effective in his 10 starts since returning from the Disabled List in early June, but the peripherals fail to support the run prevention numbers and he has struck out six or fewer batters in eight of those 10 starts. The Pirates have been playing without Andrew McCutchen, who is in a season-long funk, and other Pittsburgh sluggers such as Jung-Ho Kang add to the Pirates’ woes over the past month. He has contained the low-end offenses of San Diego and Atlanta, teams that he has faced in four of his ten starts this season, while quality lineups like those of the Giants and Cubs have proved to be bigger challenges. He catches Pittsburgh at a good time but is poised to fall back a bit himself.

Josh Tomlin CLE (at NYY) – Tomlin’s greatest strength is control, with a low walk rate of just 1.0 BB/9 that leads the American League, but his pitch-to-contact approach occasionally leads to disastrous results. He has sustained a relatively-stable hit-per-inning this season, but the frequency of baseballs leaving the yard has escalated to scary levels, with a whopping 15 home runs allowed over his last nine starts, covering 59.2 innings pitched as Tomlin has given up a bomb for every four innings of work. He could give up two or fewer runs over 6.0 or more innings, just as he has done in three of his last five starts (and six of ten), and the fact that he is playing a deadline-depleted Yankees offense encourages optimism that he has a good start in the tank for tonight, but the distinct possibility exists that Tomlin gets blasted for a handful of runs and multiple homers despite the soft offense that he is facing.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at SD) – Decent pitcher, meet soft opponent. Hellickson’s league-best whiff rate on his changeup should play well against an empty-swinging Padres offense that recently lost Matt Kemp from its lineup. His strike-zone efficiency has been impeccable for the past eight starts, with a 34:6 KLBB over 50.2 innings during that stretch, tossing 6.0 or more frames in each game and recording quality starts in six of eight, coming one out shy of making it seven. The K counts are typically modest, but facing the Padres will give him an additional buffer in the K department that could pave the way for a solid score in tonight’s ballgame.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at WAS) – The Shark is on a rough run, with four or more earnies allowed in each of his last three starts, a stretch that includes just nine strikeouts yet seven walks allowed over 16.2 innings despite his facing some modest lineups, including those of the Padres, Yankees and Nats. He has actually given up four or more earned runs in six of his last seven turns, and the lone exception was a pedestrian 20-point start against the Diamondbacks, which is just one of two turns out his last seven that has earned more than six points on DraftKings.

Steven Wright BOS (at LAD)

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. SF)

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. TEX)

Ervin Santana MIN (at TB)

Francisco Liriano TOR (at KC)

Braden Shipley ARI (vs. MIL)

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. BOS)

Martin Perez TEX (at HOU)

Christian Friedrich SD (vs. PHI)

David Phelps MIA (at COL)

Chase Anderson MIL (at ARI)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (at CHW)