Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, September 30th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-10-01 02:08:40

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gallardo	BAL	NYY	296.1	4.25	4.87	1.49	50.0%	15.70%	9.7%	0.94	1.48
Pineda	NYY	BAL	332.0	4.58	3.23	1.28	75.0%	25.50%	5.1%	1.25	1.53
Cashner	MIA	WAS	312.2	4.66	4.28	1.47	75.0%	20.00%	9.0%	1.04	1.54
Cole	WAS	MIA	44.2	5.24	4.06	1.34	0.0%	23.50%	7.7%	1.61	0.63
Gsellman	NYM	PHI	38.2	2.56	3.92	1.27	0.0%	22.00%	8.8%	0.23	2.33
Asher	PHI	NYM	50.2	6.04	5.35	1.44	0.0%	11.10%	6.2%	1.42	0.83
Buchanan	CHC	CIN	10.0	2.70	4.44	1.00	0.0%	14.60%	9.8%	1.80	1.88
Smith	CIN	CHC	87.1	5.56	4.63	1.63	0.0%	19.20%	11.4%	1.55	1.16
Estrada	TOR	BOS	352.0	3.32	4.48	1.08	27.8%	20.50%	8.3%	1.20	0.65
Porcello	BOS	TOR	389.0	3.91	3.75	1.15	55.6%	20.80%	4.3%	1.09	1.27
Norris	DET	ATL	122.2	3.67	4.21	1.32	0.0%	20.50%	7.4%	1.32	0.95
Wisler	ATL	DET	261.0	4.79	4.80	1.36	0.0%	16.40%	7.7%	1.34	0.92
Andriese	TBR	TEX	188.0	4.26	3.95	1.25	0.0%	19.40%	5.4%	1.10	1.24
Darvish	TEX	TBR	94.1	3.53	3.22	1.14	55.6%	30.60%	7.7%	1.14	1.03
Suter	MIL	COL	16.2	2.16	4.41	1.20	0.0%	17.40%	7.3%	1.08	1.00
Bettis	COL	MIL	294.1	4.65	4.26	1.41	0.0%	18.00%	7.6%	0.98	1.86
Duffey	MIN	CWS	189.0	5.24	3.97	1.42	0.0%	19.80%	6.2%	1.33	1.65
Rodon	CWS	MIN	298.1	3.92	4.07	1.42	0.0%	22.90%	9.4%	1.03	1.40
Plutko	CLE	KCR
Ventura	KCR	CLE	343.1	4.25	4.24	1.37	44.4%	19.70%	9.0%	0.97	1.77
Glasnow	PIT	STL	18.1	4.91	4.16	1.64	0.0%	23.30%	10.5%	0.49	1.35
Martinez	STL	PIT	368.0	3.08	3.74	1.26	0.0%	22.70%	8.6%	0.68	2.17
Jackson	SDP	ARI	133.2	4.65	4.87	1.42	15.0%	16.70%	10.4%	1.08	1.10
Shipley	ARI	SDP	65.0	5.26	5.19	1.52	0.0%	14.20%	9.3%	1.80	1.28
Peacock	HOU	LAA	32.0	3.09	4.48	1.03	28.6%	20.60%	9.5%	1.41	0.88
Wright	LAA	HOU	33.2	6.95	5.33	1.75	0.0%	10.30%	5.2%	1.87	1.00
Alcantara	OAK	SEA	20.1	5.75	4.66	1.33	0.0%	14.60%	3.4%	2.21	0.93
Walker	SEA	OAK	298.0	4.47	3.83	1.21	0.0%	21.80%	5.7%	1.54	1.07
Hill	LAD	SFG	134.1	1.94	3.05	0.91	0.0%	30.80%	7.1%	0.40	1.29
Bumgarner	SFG	LAD	437.2	2.82	3.17	1.01	47.6%	27.40%	5.3%	0.97	1.06

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. LAD) – Bummer has been something less than magnificent in most of his starts lately. In his last turn, Bum served up three home runs to the Padres but only have up two other baserunners, but all five scored in the five-run outing. The one vintage Bum performance of late was two starts ago against Clayton Kershaw and these Dodgers, a rivalry matchup that tends to bring the best out of the southpaw; Bumgarner struck out ten batters and gave up just one hit with zero walks in seven scoreless innings, cruising through those 21 outs in just 97 pitches. The Dodgers have nothing to play for, with their playoff spot signed, sealed and delivered, but the Giants are in the thick of a three-team race for two spots in the NL Wild Card game and the heat will be on Bumgarner to bring his A game.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. TB) – Darvish was pummeled by the A’s two starts ago, giving up seven runs on seven hits and four walks in five frames, but he took the hill one week later in Oakland and totally redeemed himself: nine strikeouts over seven scoreless, with just two hits and one hit allowed in the game. Darvish has struck out eight or more batters in each of his last three starts and four of his last five, with the only low-K game occurring oddly versus the strikeout-prone Houston lineup. The Astros game was another clunker, with Darvish’s starts this month following a hopscotch pattern that is on pace for another crooked number in the runs column. Luckily he’s facing the Rays, a team whose 4.15 runs scored per game ranks second-to-last in the American League.

Rich Hill LAD (at SF) – Hill has been a revelation for the Dodgers this month, arriving just in time to help guide their ship through the postseason. The team has been very cautious with Hill for fear of angering his blister, keeping the southpaw under 90 pitches in four of his five LA starts and maxing out at 93 throws. Their caution cost Hill an attempt at a perfect game three starts ago and he has only lasted 5.0 and 5.1 innings in his last two starts, respectively. The low counts of pitches and innings have done nothing to thwart his K count, though, as Hill has struck out seven batters in each of his four September starts, with 32 combined Ks over just 23.1 innings.

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TOR) – The run of quality starts is getting ridiculous, currently sitting at 12 consecutive starts and counting (he’s one earnie off of a 17-game streak of quality starts). Somewhat remarkably, Porcello has given up some runs in each of those 12 turns, but the overall stats paint an appropriate picture of his overall effectiveness: a 2.47 ERA and 75:6 K:BB in 91.0 innings of work. You read that K-to-walk ratio correctly, as Porcello has allowed just six total walks over his last 12 games; he’s given up more home runs (eight) and half as many HBPs (three) over that same stretch. The Jays have a formidable offense but Porcello was undeterred when he faced them four starts ago, giving up two runs on six hits with seven strikeouts over 7.0 innings.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PIT) – CarMart is on a stable run from a fantasy-point perspective, scoring 15-to-19 points in four of his past five starts despite dealing with some brutal context; in his last three starts, Martinez has faced the mighty Cubs twice and made a turn at altitude in Coors Field. He struck out 21 batters in 17.0 innings over that stretch, but the seven walks over his last two outings are a bit of a concern. He generally keeps the ball in the yard and his Ks are not overly impressive when looking at season totals, but both of those trends have been off-kilter for the past month.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. MIN) – The southpaw is coming off of his best start of the season by a landslide, tossing 8.0 innings (a single-game this season high by 1.0 frames) of scoreless baseball with just two hits and three walks allowed, accumulating a season-high 11 strikeouts along the way against a tough Cleveland offense. The start was a welcome sight after Rodon had been battered in his last previous two starts, giving up a total of 12 runs on 17 hits (four of them homers) in just 9.0 combined innings. He had nine strikeouts in that stretch, but the K-per-inning pace is not so impressive when considering that it took him 48 batters to get there (.18.8-percent K rate).

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gallardo	0.342	4.85	0.326	3.74	0.251	0.735	0.306	4.41	0.271	95.11	15.7%
Pineda	0.329	4.26	0.326	4.85	0.258	0.768	0.337	3.51	0.269	94.48	25.5%
Cashner	0.380	5.31	0.309	4.12	0.251	0.728	0.323	4.20	0.271	0.00	20.0%
Cole	0.341	5.11	0.312	5.40	0.259	0.699	0.296	4.55	0.251	0.00	23.5%
Gsellman	0.269	2.16	0.296	2.86	0.242	0.688	0.315	2.83	0.243	0.03	22.0%
Asher	0.381	6.75	0.331	5.33	0.243	0.717	0.290	5.21	0.282	0.00	11.1%
Buchanan					0.254	0.720	0.143	6.04	0.167	0.02	14.6%
Smith	0.425	7.02	0.309	4.67	0.250	0.744	0.314	5.40	0.274	0.00	19.2%
Estrada	0.272	3.06	0.285	3.65	0.274	0.778	0.224	4.30	0.202	91.10	20.5%
Porcello	0.303	3.73	0.303	4.12	0.257	0.776	0.296	3.70	0.253	100.85	20.8%
Norris	0.341	4.45	0.318	3.41	0.242	0.658	0.292	4.29	0.254	81.19	20.5%
Wisler	0.368	5.36	0.291	4.29	0.269	0.752	0.285	4.76	0.261	0.00	16.4%
Andriese	0.310	4.23	0.305	4.29	0.259	0.748	0.301	3.83	0.261	56.25	19.4%
Darvish	0.275	3.56	0.290	3.51	0.245	0.721	0.291	3.30	0.217	92.63	30.6%
Suter			0.212	0.82	0.260	0.719	0.265	4.34	0.238	0.01	17.4%
Bettis	0.312	4.16	0.353	5.16	0.249	0.712	0.310	4.08	0.268	0.00	18.0%
Duffey	0.299	3.35	0.393	7.21	0.254	0.710	0.328	4.25	0.283	0.00	19.8%
Rodon	0.251	2.68	0.350	4.33	0.257	0.739	0.323	4.00	0.261	97.00	22.9%
Plutko					0.261	0.716
Ventura	0.319	4.96	0.316	3.56	0.256	0.742	0.300	4.14	0.253	94.86	19.7%
Glasnow			0.333	5.73	0.259	0.756	0.370	3.47	0.280	0.00	23.3%
Martinez	0.327	3.64	0.262	2.53	0.259	0.729	0.301	3.46	0.240	0.00	22.7%
Jackson	0.319	3.34	0.333	5.69	0.261	0.736	0.284	4.65	0.253	0.00	16.7%
Shipley	0.366	5.68	0.391	4.67	0.237	0.681	0.297	5.71	0.286	0.00	14.2%
Peacock	0.334	3.77	0.259	2.55	0.256	0.721	0.195	4.77	0.186	48.40	20.6%
Wright	0.435	7.90	0.418	6.30	0.250	0.745	0.367	5.96	0.357	0.00	10.3%
Alcantara	0.290	2.38			0.250	0.735	0.297	6.09	0.293	0.00	14.6%
Walker	0.311	4.28	0.326	4.68	0.248	0.702	0.284	4.43	0.249	91.09	21.8%
Hill	0.189	1.48	0.238	2.08	0.260	0.708	0.256	2.37	0.179	0.01	30.8%
Bumgarner	0.232	2.69	0.275	2.85	0.239	0.692	0.272	3.07	0.214	0.00	27.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. OAK) – His 11-K shutout of the Angels three starts ago was thought to be a turning point, with underlying mechanical adjustments being the impetus behind the sudden rush to roster Walker for a late-season push. His follow-up performances have been less impressive, however, giving up exactly three runs over 5.1 innings in each of his last two starts, but with different assortments of walks and hits allowed accounting for the runs in each case. He did strike out 13 batters over those 10.2 innings, whiffing six or more batters for three straight games after he failed to exceed five Ks in any of his previous nine turns. Walker is a risky play with considerable upside

Robert Gsellman NYM (at PHI) -Gsellman has been a revelation for the Mets thus far, as the Jacob deGrom lookalike has imitated deGrom’s performance while he’s been on the shelf. Gsellman has punched out a batter per inning and surrendered a 2.56 ERA through seven games (six starts) in the big leagues this season, and the Mets stretched him out to 107 pitches in his most recent turn. The extra length on the leash made it possible for Gsellman to go 7.0 innings against the meager offense of the Phillies with eight strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed in the contest. Be warned: his K rate was nowhere near this high in the minors (6.9 K/9 in 2016, 6.6 K/9 career) and the hammer of regression could fall heavily and swiftly. Luckily, he has the Phillies to serve as a human shield and preserve his expected line.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. BAL) – Pineda has been very effective in his time on the mound this month, with a 1.90 ERA in five September starts, but he’s pitched fewer than five frames in three of those starts and has maxed out at just 5.2 innings, so he has zero quality starts in that stretch. He has struck out a ridiculous 34 batters across those 23.2 innings, including a game against the Rays two starts ago in which 11 of the 16 outs that occurred on Pineda’s watch came via the strikeout. His first start of the month was against these Orioles in what was also his worst game of the month, requiring 87 pitches just to get through 4.0 innings, with two runs allowed and just four strikeouts to his credit.

A.J. Cole WAS (vs. MIA)

Marco Estrada TOR (at BOS)

Daniel Norris DET (at ATL)

Tyler Glasnow PIT (at STL)

Brad Peacock HOU (at LAA)

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. CLE)

Matt Andriese TB (at TEX)

Matt WIsler ATL (vs. DET)

Alec Asher PHI (vs. NYM)

Braden Shipley ARI (vs. SD)

Jake Buchanan CHC (at CIN)

Andrew Cashner MIA (at WAS)