Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, July 4th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guerra | MIL | WAS | 73.1 | 3.44 | 4.11 | 1.12 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 0.98 | 1.20 | |
| Scherzer | WAS | MIL | 343.1 | 2.96 | 2.71 | 0.93 | 60.0% | 31.5% | 4.7% | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| Tropeano | LAA | TBR | 93 | 3.48 | 4.24 | 1.46 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 0.97 | 0.82 | |
| Moore | TBR | LAA | 159.1 | 4.97 | 4.32 | 1.41 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 1.41 | 0.96 | |
| Koehler | MIA | NYM | 274.1 | 4.20 | 4.79 | 1.43 | 52.6% | 17.7% | 10.5% | 0.92 | 1.31 |
| Harvey | NYM | MIA | 278.1 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.14 | 22.9% | 5.5% | 0.84 | 1.22 | |
| Martinez | TEX | BOS | 143 | 4.09 | 5.12 | 1.48 | 27.3% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| Porcello | BOS | TEX | 272 | 4.50 | 3.77 | 1.28 | 55.6% | 20.7% | 5.1% | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| Shields | CWS | NYY | 290 | 4.50 | 4.09 | 1.44 | 42.9% | 22.8% | 9.7% | 1.49 | 1.31 |
| Graveman | OAK | MIN | 195.2 | 4.37 | 4.51 | 1.47 | 15.4% | 7.6% | 1.24 | 1.77 | |
| Nolasco | MIN | OAK | 134 | 5.71 | 4.12 | 1.47 | 16.7% | 19.5% | 5.6% | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| Miley | SEA | HOU | 274.1 | 4.79 | 4.35 | 1.38 | 33.3% | 17.5% | 7.5% | 1.02 | 1.47 |
| McCullers | HOU | SEA | 171.2 | 3.41 | 3.72 | 1.32 | 25.4% | 9.9% | 0.58 | 1.71 | |
| Niese | PIT | STL | 269 | 4.45 | 4.36 | 1.44 | 41.2% | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.30 | 2.17 |
| Martinez | STL | PIT | 275 | 2.95 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 2.18 | |
| Reed | CIN | CHC | 16 | 9.00 | 3.43 | 1.81 | 27.0% | 6.8% | 3.38 | 1.31 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | CIN | 271.1 | 3.55 | 3.51 | 1.12 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 0.83 | 1.84 | |
| De La Cruz | ATL | PHI | |||||||||
| Eickhoff | PHI | ATL | 147 | 3.12 | 3.89 | 1.17 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 1.04 | 1.16 | |
| Anderson | COL | SFG | 23.2 | 2.66 | 2.98 | 1.31 | 24.0% | 5.0% | 0.38 | 3.42 | |
| Peavy | SFG | COL | 193.1 | 4.33 | 4.51 | 1.26 | 42.1% | 17.4% | 6.3% | 1.02 | 0.84 |
| Volquez | KCR | TOR | 299.2 | 3.96 | 4.41 | 1.35 | 50.0% | 18.0% | 8.5% | 0.78 | 1.51 |
| Sanchez | TOR | KCR | 197.2 | 3.14 | 3.97 | 1.25 | 19.2% | 9.6% | 0.82 | 2.87 | |
| Norris | DET | CLE | 71 | 3.80 | 4.26 | 1.24 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 1.52 | 0.85 | |
| Salazar | CLE | DET | 278.1 | 3.04 | 3.53 | 1.12 | 12.5% | 26.7% | 8.5% | 0.94 | 1.21 |
| Gallardo | BAL | LAD | 218.2 | 3.79 | 4.74 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 15.3% | 8.9% | 0.78 | 1.55 |
| Urias | LAD | BAL | 33 | 4.09 | 3.75 | 1.45 | 28.7% | 10.5% | 1.09 | 1.13 | |
| Perdomo | SDP | ARI | 53 | 8.49 | 4.19 | 2.06 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 1.70 | 2.63 | |
| Bradley | ARI | SDP | 87.2 | 5.03 | 4.71 | 1.48 | 19.7% | 12.2% | 1.13 | 1.75 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. DET) – There are going to be a lot of fireworks on July 4, and though that might be the most obvious statement that I have ever typed, I’m also referring to the loaded slate of weak pitchers that will be coughing up home runs through our nation’s Independence Day. Salazar is one of the few exceptions, and though he typically falls a little shy of All-In status, he stands head and shoulders above the other options on today’s slate. Max Scherzer would actually rank above him, particularly facing the strikeout-heavy Brewers, but the 11:05am (ET) start is a full three hours before the other early games on the schedule and is therefore missing from today’s DFS options.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PIT) – CarMart is on a very impressive run. He has allowed just two runs combined over his last four starts, stretching over 28.1 innings of work. The strikeouts are a strike against him, as even during his current stretch of dominance CarMart has punched out just 16 batters (5.1 K/9). It looks like he has shaken the case of the runs that plagued him through most of May, and the last start dropped his ERA below 3.00 for the first time since his illness-shortened game in early May. Martinez facing a struggling Pittsburgh lineup that has hit for just a collective .283 wOBA and .649 OPS over the last seven days, with both marks being the worst in baseball over that stretch.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. KC) – Sanchez is on an absolute tear, which based on his season’s game log indicates that a blowup is coming. He started the season with three straight starts of one run allowed, then gave up a six-spot; he followed with three consecutive quality starts, and then came another six spot; then four more quality starts, and then yet another six-spot. The right-hander has allowed just four combined earned runs over his last three turns, covering 20 total frames – I know it’s superstitious hogwash, because pitcher performance doesn’t work this way, but man it’s tough to shake the feeling that another six-spot is coming… soon.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. ATL) – The right-hander teased the fantasy community with a pair of 9-K starts in his first three ballgames, but soon thereafter he went on a five-game string of whiffing four or less batters per start. He has met or exceeded that number in each of the seven starts since, but the more impressive piece has been the 2.23 ERA over six starts in June, including a 33:12 K:BB ratio in 36.1 innings. He last faced the Braves on May 22, a game in which he threw 7.0 scoreless frames with three strikeouts and six baserunners allowed, and there is little reason to believe that today’s outing will be much different.
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. SEA) – McCullers hasn’t made anything easy since coming back from the DL. He’s walked at least three batters in all eight of his starts, yet he has struck out at least six batters in the last six turns. The Astros haven’t been too shy about his workload, so if he pitches well then McCullers can go deep into games, but he’ll want to cut down on the number of deep counts in order to give the bullpen a rest. He has been piling up the strikeouts, with 56 Ks in 46 innings, but the K counts are the only sign of dominance for a pitcher who is currently having trouble with commanding his great stuff.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. CIN)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guerra | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.288 | 3.69 | 0.246 | 0.718 | 0.261 | 3.80 | 0.222 | 0.02 | 21.5% |
| Scherzer | 0.299 | 3.15 | 0.225 | 2.77 | 0.255 | 0.713 | 0.261 | 3.07 | 0.201 | 0.01 | 31.5% |
| Tropeano | 0.331 | 2.42 | 0.334 | 4.63 | 0.241 | 0.702 | 0.333 | 3.83 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 22.7% |
| Moore | 0.317 | 5.83 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.243 | 0.696 | 0.316 | 4.60 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 19.8% |
| Koehler | 0.342 | 4.54 | 0.308 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 0.710 | 0.294 | 4.42 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Harvey | 0.321 | 3.87 | 0.254 | 2.74 | 0.262 | 0.701 | 0.294 | 3.22 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Martinez | 0.310 | 3.38 | 0.383 | 4.76 | 0.273 | 0.771 | 0.290 | 5.26 | 0.271 | 0.00 | 13.0% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 4.22 | 0.336 | 4.85 | 0.258 | 0.739 | 0.315 | 4.07 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Sabathia | 0.260 | 4.31 | 0.343 | 4.22 | 0.247 | 0.676 | 0.308 | 4.36 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 18.8% |
| Shields | 0.378 | 4.61 | 0.318 | 4.40 | 0.248 | 0.730 | 0.313 | 4.69 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 22.8% |
| Graveman | 0.346 | 3.67 | 0.342 | 5.07 | 0.243 | 0.699 | 0.312 | 4.74 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 15.4% |
| Nolasco | 0.331 | 4.55 | 0.365 | 6.75 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.350 | 3.89 | 0.298 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Miley | 0.308 | 4.45 | 0.336 | 4.89 | 0.243 | 0.743 | 0.307 | 4.15 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 17.5% |
| McCullers | 0.275 | 3.31 | 0.325 | 3.50 | 0.250 | 0.741 | 0.314 | 3.17 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 25.4% |
| Niese | 0.342 | 3.65 | 0.348 | 4.69 | 0.233 | 0.677 | 0.302 | 4.82 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Martinez | 0.326 | 3.71 | 0.248 | 2.20 | 0.263 | 0.733 | 0.295 | 3.34 | 0.235 | 0.00 | 22.5% |
| Reed | 0.468 | 8.78 | 0.247 | 0.736 | 0.419 | 6.48 | 0.348 | 0.00 | 27.0% | ||
| Hendricks | 0.327 | 3.13 | 0.254 | 3.86 | 0.245 | 0.702 | 0.282 | 3.39 | 0.231 | 0.00 | 22.5% |
| De La Cruz | 0.244 | 0.684 | |||||||||
| Eickhoff | 0.334 | 3.88 | 0.269 | 2.44 | 0.252 | 0.676 | 0.285 | 3.70 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Anderson | 0.306 | 2.55 | 0.266 | 0.720 | 0.357 | 2.32 | 0.274 | 0.06 | 24.0% | ||
| Peavy | 0.328 | 3.86 | 0.318 | 4.77 | 0.272 | 0.784 | 0.289 | 4.02 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 17.4% |
| Volquez | 0.298 | 3.43 | 0.319 | 4.51 | 0.259 | 0.782 | 0.296 | 3.92 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 18.0% |
| Sanchez | 0.341 | 3.53 | 0.238 | 2.75 | 0.269 | 0.732 | 0.271 | 3.99 | 0.231 | 0.00 | 19.2% |
| Norris | 0.386 | 4.58 | 0.302 | 3.54 | 0.266 | 0.731 | 0.266 | 4.67 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 19.3% |
| Salazar | 0.282 | 3.22 | 0.279 | 2.88 | 0.270 | 0.746 | 0.270 | 3.45 | 0.211 | 0.01 | 26.7% |
| Gallardo | 0.345 | 4.84 | 0.307 | 2.80 | 0.244 | 0.723 | 0.305 | 4.12 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 15.3% |
| Urias | 0.351 | 4.50 | 0.243 | 0.690 | 0.349 | 3.62 | 0.258 | 0.04 | 28.7% | ||
| Perdomo | 0.408 | 9.24 | 0.414 | 7.81 | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.403 | 5.45 | 0.347 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Bradley | 0.337 | 3.95 | 0.326 | 6.09 | 0.239 | 0.679 | 0.288 | 4.73 | 0.246 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Urias LAD (vs. BAL) – I say this every time that Urias pitches: his limited pitch counts will stand in the way of the strikeouts, wins and innings that are necessary to score well in DFS. Now that it’s out of the way, I can renege the comment, because Urias actually threw 100 pitches in his last start after throwing 94 pitches in the previous game, this after being capped at 86 pitches in his first five starts with the big club. He allowed just two hits in his last game, but he still lasted just six innings because he gave up six walks against the Brewers, following five consecutive starts with just one walk allowed in each. The first two starts of his career were shaky, but over his last five games Urias sports a 2.49 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 25.1 innings. He gets knocked down a peg due to facing the powerful lineup of the Orioles, but the next time that Urias pitches we might just be talking about him in the Raise category.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. MIA) – Matt Harvey hasn’t really pitched well enough to earn a Raise designation at any point this season. Even when he was supposedly going well and allowing fewer runs, the limited strikeouts effectively capped his potential earnings. Harvey has been pitching better for the past month, and watching the right-hander reveals an uptick of athleticism and power from where he was in April, but Harvey is still compromised mechanically from the pitcher who flashed dominance last season, let alone the pitcher that oozed dominance prior to his going under the knife. He gave up just one run against the Marlins back on June 5, striking out three batters and giving up four hits, and that performance likely represents his ceiling for today.
Tyler Anderson COL (at SF) – It’s tough to trust any Colorado pitcher, though it’s admittedly easier when he’s pitching on the road. Anderson has compiled a 2.66 ERA this season, and the amazing part of that small-sample stat is that three of his four starts have been at altitude in Colorado, the last of which being against the powerful Blue Jays (who mash southpaws in particular). He has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each turn, coming within one out (plus or minus) of six innings pitched in every start of the year. He has a K-per-inning and just four walks in 23.2 frames this season. Regression’s coming soon, especially at home, but ATT Park may allow Anderson to masquerade as a great pitcher for just a bit longer.
Nick Tropeano LAA (at TB) – Tropeano has been down on the farm for almost a month following a two-month trial in the big leagues, but he’s back up with the big club to take on the Rays as the Halos shuffle Jhoulys Chacin to the bullpen. Tropeano has strikeout upside and faces a weak opponent today, but the key is whether he can limit the self-inflicted damage, as he has walked 28 batters (4.6 BB/9) and surrendered eight home runs in just 55.1 innings this season. He struck out a batter-per-inning in the majors last season as well, so the strikeouts are not the concern, but his inconsistency extends back to the minor leagues as well.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. SD) – Bradley has spiked nine or more strikeouts in three different turns this season, but in each of his other six starts the right-hander has failed to top five Ks. He has pitched between 5.0 and 6.0 innings in seven of his turns, with one outlier on either side of the range, so his Ks are capped by a modest innings-count despite the fact that he has routinely thrown 105 or more pitches. The Padres might provide the opportunity for Bradley to have his fourth big-strikeout game of the season, but he is more likely to be undone by walks and homers.
CC Sabathia NYY (at CHW)
Matt Moore TB (vs. LAA)
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TEX)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at MIN)
Jake Peavy SF (vs. COL)
Tom Koehler MIA (at NYM)
James Shields CHW (vs. NYY)
Daniel Norris DET (at CLE)
Edinson Volquez KC (at TOR)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. OAK)
Wade Miley SEA (at HOU)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Yovani Gallardo BAL (at LAD)
Joel De La Cruz ATL (at PHI)
Jon Niese PIT (at STL)
Luis Perdomo SD (at ARI)
Cody Reed CIN (at CHC)
Nick Martinez TEX (at BOS) – There are so many great stacking options today that it’s ridiculous. Some of the worst starting pitchers that currently have jobs are going up against some of the toughest offenses in baseball, the most extreme of which is right here, as the top-scoring offense of the Red Sox goes up against Nick Martinez with his career 4.32 ERA and damning 1.47 WHIP. The right-hander has the worst combination imaginable, in which he rarely strikes out a batter, walks more hitters than the vast majority of pitchers and gets clobbered for a career rate of 1.2 HR/9. He also gives up a boatload of hits, which has been the case in every year of his career; in fact, all of his ratios – strikeouts, walks, hits and homers – have been consistently subpar in each season that he has toed the rubber. Boston bats are expensive, making a Red Sox stack prohibitive, but even at exorbitant prices they will likely return value against the punching bag Martinez.
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