Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 8th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2017-04-09 04:52:58

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	Team	Opp	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	GB%
Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	DET	107	4.71	4.44	1.3	35.00%	21.8%	8.7%	1.35	31.6%
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	CHW
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	STL
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	BAL	199.2	3.07	3.79	1.08	58.06%	20.5%	4.5%	0.99	48.2%
Aaron Sanchez	TOR	TBR	192	3	4.01	1.17	66.67%	20.4%	8.0%	0.70	54.4%
Jeremy Guthrie	WAS	PHI
R.A. Dickey	ATL	PIT	169.2	4.46	4.81	1.37	31.03%	17.3%	8.7%	1.49	42.1%
Danny Duffy	KCR	HOU	179.2	3.51	3.53	1.14	46.15%	25.7%	5.8%	1.35	36.4%
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	MIL	190	2.13	3.7	0.98	63.33%	22.8%	5.9%	0.71	48.4%
Adam Conley	MIA	NYM	133.1	3.85	4.64	1.4	32.00%	21.2%	10.6%	0.88	38.2%
Kendall Graveman	OAK	TEX	186	4.11	4.57	1.31	38.71%	13.7%	6.0%	1.06	52.1%
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	149	1.69	2.41	0.72	80.95%	31.6%	2.0%	0.48	49.4%
Trevor Bauer	CLE	ARI	190	4.26	4.22	1.31	32.14%	20.7%	8.6%	0.95	48.7%
Madison Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	226.2	2.74	3.36	1.02	61.76%	27.5%	5.9%	1.03	39.6%
Felix Hernandez	SEA	LAA	153.1	3.82	4.63	1.32	44.00%	18.6%	9.9%	1.12	50.2%
Jordan Zimmermann	DET	BOS	105.1	4.87	4.81	1.37	33.33%	14.7%	5.8%	1.20	43.1%
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	MIN	135	3.73	4.61	1.24	39.13%	16.8%	6.2%	0.73	40.1%
Michael Wacha	STL	CIN	138	5.09	4.31	1.48	33.33%	18.8%	7.4%	0.98	46.6%
Kevin Gausman	BAL	NYY	179.2	3.61	3.81	1.28	50.00%	23.0%	6.2%	1.40	44.1%
Chris Archer	TBR	TOR	201.1	4.02	3.5	1.24	33.33%	27.4%	7.9%	1.34	47.8%
Aaron Nola	PHI	WAS	111	4.78	3.29	1.31	50.00%	25.1%	6.0%	0.81	55.2%
Chad Kuhl	PIT	ATL	70.2	4.2	4.5	1.32	57.14%	17.6%	6.6%	0.89	44.3%
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	KCR	168	4.55	3.77	1.29	50.00%	20.5%	6.9%	1.07	56.7%
Tommy Milone	MIL	CHC	69.1	5.71	4.61	1.53	16.67%	15.8%	7.1%	1.95	45.7%
Robert Gsellman	NYM	MIA	44.2	2.42	3.76	1.28	42.86%	22.7%	8.1%	0.20	54.2%
Yu Darvish	TEX	OAK	100.1	3.41	3.08	1.12	47.06%	31.7%	7.5%	1.08	40.4%
Jon Gray	COL	LAD	168	4.61	3.72	1.26	51.72%	26.0%	8.3%	0.96	43.5%
Zack Greinke	ARI	CLE	158.2	4.37	4.11	1.27	50.00%	20.1%	6.2%	1.30	45.9%
Jhoulys Chacin	SDP	SFG	144	4.81	4.38	1.44	27.27%	18.8%	8.7%	0.88	48.4%
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	SEA	197.2	4.42	4.39	1.24	37.50%	17.6%	5.4%	1.18	43.1%

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at SD, $12500) – All eyes are on Bumgarner’s bat after he hit two home runs off Zack Greinke on Opening Day, but his left arm is not to be ignored. Bum has quietly upped his strikeout rate in four consecutive seasons, improving an already-strong 22.5-percent K-rate in 2012 to an excellent rate of 27.5 percent last season. He got off to a nice start in his first turn of the season, whiffing 11 of the 27 Diamondbacks that he faced, and is now treated with playing a Padres offense that struck out 1500 times last season, second-most in baseball. He is worth the $12500 price tag on a regular day, but pitching against the Padres under the marine layer of Petco Park is too good of an opportunity to pass.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. OAK, $10500) – Davish’s debut performance was a bit of a letdown, particularly in the category of commanding the baseball, as the five walks that he gave up to Cleveland were a reminder of his biggest struggles in past seasons. Pitch command is supposed to be the last thing to return following major elbow surgery, but Darvish went through stretches last season in which his command was impeccable, shedding a ray of light that he can not only overcome the issue but potentially come out the other side with career-best skills intact. He’ll have an easier time keeping the walk-count down against the A’s, who have abandoned their Moneyball ways and finished with the fourth-lowest total of free passes in baseball last season. They also had the third-fewest strikeouts, so Darvish’s K-count might be a bit light (the A’s return essentially the same squad), but I remain optimistic that Darvish is primed for a huge season and the steamrolling begins tonight, making him a bargain at $10500.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at LAA, $9400) – The downturn of 2015 was overblown but the cratering of 2016 was not, putting the onus on the King to right the ship and reclaim his throne in Seattle. His first start of 2017 was a step in the right direction, with six strikeouts against zero walks against the Astros on Opening Day, including two runs allowed that came on two solo home runs. He gets an easier offense this time around, and the fact that his average velocity in game one of the 2017 season was 0.8 mph harder than his average velo for all of 2016 is a very good sign. Pitch-speed tends to heat up with the weather and the velo-drop was a big source of concern last season, so to see him back at a consistent 91-93 mph with his fastball is a good sign this early in the year. The baseline skills are still there and I remain high on the King’s rule for 2017.

Zack Greinke ARI (vs. CLE, $8100) – Greinke is coming off a horrific campaign, but his first start of this year provided a dose of optimism that he can turn things around. He gave up two runs against the Giants in Opening Day in 5.0 innings of work, including a solo homer that he surrendered to opposing pitcher Madison Bumgarner, with a pedestrian four strikeouts and two walks on the game. The velocity was a bit on the low side, averaging 90.9 mph on his four-seam fastball (compared to 92.2 mph average last season), a potentially worrisome trend given that his pitch-speed was down throughout the spring. As mentioned, pitchers tend to throw harder as spring gives way to summer, and Greinke benefits from the fact that overwhelming pitch speed is not a primary part of his approach, but if his velo continues to be compromised it lowers the baseline of his stuff. Stay tuned.

Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. MIA, $6900) – The price tag on Gsellman puts him in the bargain bin, a bin that’s especially attractive against a mediocre offense like that of the Marlins, making it easy to pair him with the Bumgarners of the world and still have enough money left over to float a strong lineup. Gsellman might miss the Raise ranks purely on his own merit, but the value of rostering him with the low price tag vaults him to recommended status. A hard thrower, the right-hander averaged 94.7 mph on his fastball last season and paired with a hard slider that averaged 88.8 mph, giving him a 1-2 punch within a narrow velocity band but which hitters have to anticipate if they are going to square it up. With flowing dark locks he looks like Jacob deGrom from the center field camera, and Gsellman might take the league by storm much as rotation-mate deGrom did in 2014. He’s not as stingy with the free pass that deGrom has been, but Gsellman has the raw tools to pile up strikeouts and maintain the 2.8 K/BB that he has posted thus far in his career.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	Team	Opp	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	SIERA	BABIP	FIP
Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	DET	0.318	3.38	0.312	5.04	0.239	4.44	0.278	4.43
Adalberto Mejia	MIN	CHW
Bronson Arroyo	CIN	STL
Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	BAL	0.28	2.88	0.277	3.24	0.234	3.79	0.271	3.51
Aaron Sanchez	TOR	TBR	0.292	3.23	0.26	2.77	0.223	4.01	0.267	3.55
Jeremy Guthrie	WAS	PHI
R.A. Dickey	ATL	PIT	0.339	4.54	0.337	4.39	0.256	4.81	0.279	5.03
Danny Duffy	KCR	HOU	0.201	1.76	0.325	3.87	0.239	3.53	0.291	3.83
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	MIL	0.269	1.58	0.243	2.54	0.205	3.7	0.25	3.2
Adam Conley	MIA	NYM	0.334	4.02	0.316	3.79	0.245	4.64	0.299	4.2
Kendall Graveman	OAK	TEX	0.325	3.75	0.306	4.54	0.268	4.57	0.289	4.39
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	COL	0.137	0.66	0.227	2.08	0.183	2.41	0.254	1.8
Trevor Bauer	CLE	ARI	0.299	4.01	0.32	4.5	0.245	4.22	0.292	3.99
Madison Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	0.223	2.62	0.279	2.77	0.209	3.36	0.265	3.24
Felix Hernandez	SEA	LAA	0.323	3.33	0.31	4.2	0.238	4.63	0.271	4.63
Jordan Zimmermann	DET	BOS	0.31	5.26	0.367	4.47	0.28	4.81	0.304	4.42
Miguel Gonzalez	CHW	MIN	0.296	2.7	0.3	4.85	0.251	4.61	0.289	3.71
Michael Wacha	STL	CIN	0.313	3.73	0.358	6.14	0.284	4.31	0.334	3.91
Kevin Gausman	BAL	NYY	0.284	3.24	0.349	3.94	0.26	3.81	0.308	4.1
Chris Archer	TBR	TOR	0.302	4.32	0.306	3.75	0.235	3.5	0.296	3.81
Aaron Nola	PHI	WAS	0.304	4.67	0.309	4.88	0.259	3.29	0.334	3.08
Chad Kuhl	PIT	ATL	0.363	4.35	0.295	4.08	0.264	4.5	0.304	3.95
Dallas Keuchel	HOU	KCR	0.263	2.7	0.331	5.07	0.258	3.77	0.304	3.87
Tommy Milone	MIL	CHC	0.357	4.3	0.362	6.09	0.292	4.61	0.308	5.54
Robert Gsellman	NYM	MIA	0.267	1.77	0.292	2.96	0.249	3.76	0.325	2.63
Yu Darvish	TEX	OAK	0.263	3.26	0.287	3.54	0.212	3.08	0.29	3.09
Jon Gray	COL	LAD	0.3	4.67	0.313	4.54	0.239	3.72	0.308	3.6
Zack Greinke	ARI	CLE	0.315	4.43	0.323	4.28	0.257	4.11	0.294	4.12
Jhoulys Chacin	SDP	SFG	0.327
Ricky Nolasco	LAA	SEA

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at COL, $10000) – The only way that Kersh slips down to the Call list is by playing in Colorado, where even Superman is compromised via elevated levels of kryptonite. Kershaw’s career ERA at Coors Field is 4.63 across 103 career innings at the high-altitude ballpark, which is more than a half-run higher than his career ERA at any other ballpark in the majors despite having pitched his third-most innings at Coors (behind AT&T Park and obviously Dodger Stadium). As much as Kershaw is a no-brainer at sea level, I can’t justify paying $10k for him when he’s pitching at Coors, given the lengthy history of merely adequate pitching in that venue, and even though it’s likely the lowest price tag that will be attached to Kersh this season, it’s a cost that is difficult to validate based on his track record.

Jon Gray COL (vs. LAD, $6500) -Gray actually pitched much better in his high-altitude home last season than he did on the road, with a better ERA (4.30 to 4.91) and far superior K/BB ratio (5.22 to 2.22) in addition to nearly-identical rates of hits and homers allowed. We remember his late-season gem against the Padres in which Gray struck out 16 batters against zero walks and just four hits in a shutout at Coors, but it’s critical that we not let his unique circumstance blind us from the truth: Hell hath no fury like Coors Field. Gray can spike a huge K count, but largely thanks to the ping-pong nature of his home ballpark, the youngster has compiled a subpar ERA of 4.91 for his career and risks implosion every time that he takes the mound. It’s also worth noting that, of his six starts with double-digit strikeouts last season, only two of them occurred in Coors. He doesn’t have to outduel Kershaw in order to make a profit with such a modest price tag, but beware that Gray could sink a DFS lineup if he is unable to conquer the thin air in tonight’s game.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIL, $9000) – I think that the baseball community needs to cool their collective jets on the Greg Maddux comparisons, as Hendricks’ approach is much more similar to that of Maddux rotation-mate (and fellow Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine, but I’m not yet ready to say that Hendricks can repeat that magic or that the league will not catch on to his penchant from throwing the ball low and away from batter strengths. He doesn’t bring the strikeouts to promise upside, but Hendricks has whiffed more than 8.0 batters per nine innings over each of the past two years and he is efficient and generally keeps runs off the board, a task that will be easier against an inexperienced Milwaukee club that might be eager to swing out of their shoes. Hendricks was a fine selection so long as he was a relative unknown, but the hype balloon has inflated his price tag past the point of profitability, such that Hendricks needs to chew through low-scoring frames in order to justify the cost.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. KC, $9200)

Danny Duffy KC (at HOU, $9700) – Let’s compare Duffy to Kyle Hendricks, another pitcher with an uneven track record that has earned my skepticism in the past. Duffy is facing a tougher opponent, has a much less impressive offense to offer run support, has dealt with bigger struggles in the more recent past and costs $700 more to roster. I may not be huge on Hendricks, but I much prefer his context on today’s DFS slate to that of Duffy, whom I will be fading like Marty McFly’s brother in the photograph from Back to the Future.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. WAS, $7700)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at TEX, $4900) – I’m not a big proponent of Graveman, especially against a formidable lineup like that of the Rangers, but his price tag is so ridiculously low that justifying his salary will be easy. He has a very low ceiling of projected performance, so the bats will have to come through if rostering Graveman today, but the good news is that a DFS manager can stack together a robust lineup with the cap room that is saved from rostering Graveman.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at ARI, $7000)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (vs. SEA, $7600)

Adam Conley MIA (at NYM, $6800)

Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. ATL, $5700)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

R.A. Dickey ATL (at PIT, $6300)

Jeremy Guthrie WAS (at PHI, $5900)

Jhoulys Chacin SD (vs. SF, $5500)

Tommy Milone MIL (vs. CHC, $5200)