Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 20th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | NYM | SFG | 138.1 | 3.38 | 4.38 | 1.24 | 42.1% | 16.00% | 4.4% | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Moore | SFG | NYM | 148.0 | 4.14 | 4.52 | 1.29 | 0.0% | 20.40% | 8.6% | 1.28 | 0.83 |
| Griffin | TEX | TBR | 84.2 | 4.68 | 4.62 | 1.32 | 0.0% | 20.30% | 8.9% | 1.81 | 0.71 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | TEX | 142.2 | 3.72 | 4.11 | 1.21 | 36.8% | 22.20% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 0.84 |
| Fiers | HOU | BAL | 125.2 | 4.66 | 4.34 | 1.35 | 0.0% | 17.80% | 5.6% | 1.58 | 1.23 |
| Tillman | BAL | HOU | 151.0 | 3.46 | 4.42 | 1.21 | 42.9% | 20.60% | 8.7% | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Phelps | MIA | PIT | 69.0 | 2.48 | 3.10 | 1.14 | 42.9% | 30.90% | 9.7% | 0.78 | 1.24 |
| Kuhl | PIT | MIA | 31.1 | 3.73 | 4.71 | 1.24 | 0.0% | 17.10% | 7.0% | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Weaver | STL | PHI | |||||||||
| Hellickson | PHI | STL | 143.0 | 3.65 | 4.06 | 1.14 | 0.0% | 20.50% | 5.5% | 1.26 | 1.13 |
| Pomeranz | BOS | DET | 135.1 | 2.99 | 3.88 | 1.15 | 25.0% | 26.60% | 10.1% | 1.00 | 1.28 |
| Norris | DET | BOS | 23.1 | 3.47 | 4.65 | 1.67 | 0.0% | 18.70% | 8.4% | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Anderson | LAD | CIN | |||||||||
| Finnegan | CIN | LAD | 134.2 | 4.54 | 5.31 | 1.42 | 0.0% | 16.90% | 11.7% | 1.74 | 0.97 |
| Detwiler | OAK | CWS | 17.1 | 4.15 | 5.48 | 1.38 | 0.0% | 10.80% | 10.8% | 1.04 | 1.93 |
| Sale | CWS | OAK | 160.2 | 3.30 | 3.62 | 1.04 | 64.3% | 24.50% | 5.5% | 1.01 | 1.05 |
| Sanchez | TOR | CLE | 152.1 | 2.84 | 3.77 | 1.16 | 0.0% | 20.40% | 7.2% | 0.59 | 2.53 |
| Tomlin | CLE | TOR | 137.0 | 4.14 | 4.22 | 1.18 | 23.1% | 16.90% | 3.0% | 1.91 | 1.17 |
| Scherzer | WAS | ATL | 167.2 | 2.95 | 2.97 | 0.94 | 60.0% | 32.20% | 6.3% | 1.34 | 0.69 |
| Jenkins | ATL | WAS | 46.0 | 4.89 | 6.35 | 1.61 | 0.0% | 10.20% | 14.6% | 1.57 | 1.51 |
| Santiago | MIN | KCR | 135.0 | 4.80 | 4.78 | 1.37 | 16.7% | 20.10% | 10.3% | 1.60 | 0.81 |
| Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 140.1 | 3.78 | 4.07 | 1.18 | 47.6% | 23.80% | 7.9% | 1.80 | 0.72 |
| Montgomery | CHC | COL | 70.1 | 2.43 | 3.31 | 1.18 | 0.0% | 22.50% | 7.8% | 0.51 | 2.90 |
| Hoffman | COL | CHC | |||||||||
| Ray | ARI | SDP | 133.0 | 4.47 | 3.55 | 1.47 | 33.3% | 27.20% | 8.3% | 1.15 | 1.48 |
| Richard | SDP | ARI | 20.1 | 5.75 | 4.69 | 1.97 | 0.0% | 13.00% | 12.0% | 0.89 | 3.20 |
| Cessa | NYY | LAA | 18.2 | 5.30 | 4.84 | 1.23 | 0.0% | 13.80% | 7.5% | 2.41 | 0.92 |
| Nolasco | LAA | NYY | 142.0 | 5.13 | 4.43 | 1.35 | 16.7% | 17.60% | 5.5% | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| Peralta | MIL | SEA | 78.0 | 6.00 | 4.82 | 1.74 | 47.4% | 15.00% | 8.8% | 1.38 | 1.91 |
| Hernandez | SEA | MIL | 102.1 | 3.34 | 4.41 | 1.24 | 81.0% | 20.30% | 10.4% | 1.06 | 1.96 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (at ATL) – Scherzer is coming off his shortest outing of the season, needing 97 pitches to chew through just 4.0 innings while giving up four runs on seven hits and two walks against the Rockies. Of course, the start was in the pitcher’s hell of Coors Field, so there were factors outside Scherzer’s control that thwarted his attempts at a seventh consecutive start of 7.0 or more innings pitched. He had also reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his past four starts heading into the high-altitude game, and over his previous eight games Scherzer had compiled a 1.44 ERA with 70 punchouts against only 11 walks in 56.1 frames. Expect him to get back on track in tonight’s contest, but be aware that he will be very heavily owned due to his being the best pitcher on the slate and is facing the lightest offense in baseball.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. OAK) – It seemed like a bit of a fluke for Sale to hold a 3.41 ERA last season, given that his peripherals were outstanding and he is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in the AL. However, the run prevention looks nearly the same after 23 starts this season, as his ERA is up to 3.30 after giving up five tallies to the Marlins over 6.2 innings in his last start. It was the fifth consecutive start on the road for Sale, so at the very least he gets to pitch at the Cell after not spinning the yard at home since before the All-Star break. Of course, the last time that Sale pitched at home he endured the worst start of his season, coughing up eight runs and ten hits over 5.0 frames against the lowly Braves. The context seems right, but recent history would not seem to be on Sale’s side.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (at CLE) – Sanchez is remarkably cheap on DraftKings today, coming in at just $7400 salary after costing $9900 or more in seven consecutive starts. One could maybe understand the discount if he was coming off a rough stretch, but Sanchez allowed two runs over seven innings against the Astros in his last turn, with six strikeouts against eight baserunners. He did give up four runs over six innings against the Royals in his previous start, but he has otherwise been a quality start machine, earning the QS in eight of his past 10 starts and falling short of another when he was pulled after 92 pitches and five innings with two runs allowed. He is not a strikeout maven, and in fact Sanchez has rung up just 44 Ks over his last 10 starts and 67.0 innings, but his mere 16 walks and 55 hits allowed over that same stretch underscore the positives of his skill set.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. MIL) – The walks are a bit maddening, considering that Hernandez has not given up a higher rate than 2.7 BB/9 since 2008 and he has only exceeded that mark twice in his career (the other was in his first full season), but suddenly that rate has skyrocketed to 4.0 BB/9, including 16 walks over his last four starts combined and 11 free passes allowed over 21.2 frames since he returned from the disabled list. He has also reached eight strikeouts in three of his last four turns, a span that has involved four or fewer hits allowed in each game. Combined, the hits and walks have not quite balanced, resulting in a 1.24 WHIP that is also his highest since ‘08, but the ERA is down to 3.34 on the season and the K counts have recently been an asset rather than a liability. The Brewers lead the majors in batter Ks, giving Felix an outside shot at just his second game of double-digit strikeouts this season (the first came in his second start of the year).
Drew Pomeranz BOS (at DET) – Putting Pomeranz among the Raise-worthy pitchers on today’s slate is more a nod to the relatively-thin list of available pitchers today than it is an endorsement for the lefty’s services. After a horrific start to his Red Sox career, Pomeranz has cleaned up the mess in his last three starts, posting a composite ERA of 2.37 over 19.0 innings of work, though his nine strikeouts and three homers surrendered over that stretch indicate that he is not out of the woods yet. He has given up at least one homer in all six of his starts for Boston, and Pomeranz has yet to top seven strikeouts in any of those half-dozen turns. Adding to the pessimism is a Tigers offense whose biggest bats tend to explode versus southpaws, including J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler. Even James McCann has a remarkably easy time slugging southpaws.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | 0.316 | 3.64 | 0.314 | 4.05 | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.296 | 4.00 | 0.268 | 82.92 | 16.0% |
| Moore | 0.314 | 5.60 | 0.327 | 4.14 | 0.246 | 0.727 | 0.276 | 4.45 | 0.241 | 102.00 | 20.4% |
| Griffin | 0.403 | 5.88 | 0.272 | 3.53 | 0.244 | 0.717 | 0.270 | 5.31 | 0.248 | 91.81 | 20.3% |
| Odorizzi | 0.264 | 2.67 | 0.335 | 4.43 | 0.259 | 0.743 | 0.281 | 4.13 | 0.241 | 101.48 | 22.2% |
| Fiers | 0.298 | 3.89 | 0.345 | 4.25 | 0.261 | 0.770 | 0.307 | 4.78 | 0.279 | 89.04 | 17.8% |
| Tillman | 0.309 | 3.49 | 0.330 | 5.02 | 0.248 | 0.739 | 0.274 | 4.07 | 0.234 | 99.88 | 20.6% |
| Phelps | 0.329 | 4.23 | 0.273 | 3.34 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.291 | 3.00 | 0.208 | 0.01 | 30.9% |
| Kuhl | 0.374 | 3.78 | 0.226 | 3.68 | 0.262 | 0.705 | 0.287 | 3.94 | 0.252 | 84.67 | 17.1% |
| Weaver | 0.243 | 0.687 | |||||||||
| Hellickson | 0.336 | 4.11 | 0.308 | 4.16 | 0.261 | 0.760 | 0.273 | 4.05 | 0.240 | 92.00 | 20.5% |
| Pomeranz | 0.239 | 1.82 | 0.294 | 3.84 | 0.272 | 0.781 | 0.254 | 3.68 | 0.202 | 0.01 | 26.6% |
| Norris | 0.381 | 4.79 | 0.314 | 3.30 | 0.277 | 0.776 | 0.360 | 4.26 | 0.306 | 65.50 | 18.7% |
| Anderson | 0.311 | 3.38 | 0.327 | 4.15 | 0.242 | 0.702 | |||||
| Finnegan | 0.307 | 2.58 | 0.342 | 4.85 | 0.249 | 0.720 | 0.252 | 5.80 | 0.242 | 94.58 | 16.9% |
| Detwiler | 0.296 | 2.96 | 0.445 | 8.57 | 0.247 | 0.677 | 0.255 | 5.28 | 0.246 | 32.89 | 10.8% |
| Sale | 0.273 | 3.41 | 0.282 | 3.35 | 0.253 | 0.712 | 0.271 | 3.49 | 0.221 | 106.96 | 24.5% |
| Sanchez | 0.330 | 3.58 | 0.236 | 2.42 | 0.257 | 0.745 | 0.278 | 3.29 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 20.4% |
| Tomlin | 0.265 | 2.87 | 0.345 | 4.56 | 0.257 | 0.777 | 0.271 | 4.93 | 0.262 | 93.36 | 16.9% |
| Scherzer | 0.296 | 3.10 | 0.223 | 2.62 | 0.252 | 0.683 | 0.245 | 3.37 | 0.191 | 0.01 | 32.2% |
| Jenkins | 0.356 | 6.06 | 0.366 | 4.25 | 0.249 | 0.728 | 0.247 | 6.51 | 0.251 | 70.27 | 10.2% |
| Santiago | 0.297 | 2.85 | 0.329 | 4.50 | 0.272 | 0.734 | 0.269 | 5.17 | 0.242 | 95.44 | 20.1% |
| Kennedy | 0.340 | 4.34 | 0.324 | 3.78 | 0.249 | 0.718 | 0.256 | 4.95 | 0.228 | 101.00 | 23.8% |
| Montgomery | 0.316 | 4.82 | 0.309 | 3.17 | 0.262 | 0.726 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 22.5% |
| Hoffman | 0.249 | 0.742 | |||||||||
| Ray | 0.303 | 3.18 | 0.333 | 4.31 | 0.249 | 0.714 | 0.359 | 3.62 | 0.272 | 100.63 | 27.2% |
| Richard | 0.285 | 2.10 | 0.362 | 6.08 | 0.268 | 0.776 | 0.366 | 5.21 | 0.326 | 12.61 | 13.0% |
| Cessa | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.211 | 6.57 | 0.233 | 36.88 | 13.8% | ||||
| Nolasco | 0.318 | 4.25 | 0.368 | 6.68 | 0.248 | 0.728 | 0.312 | 4.43 | 0.280 | 97.54 | 17.6% |
| Peralta | 0.383 | 5.07 | 0.373 | 5.44 | 0.250 | 0.736 | 0.365 | 5.09 | 0.328 | 91.87 | 15.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.309 | 3.86 | 0.291 | 3.07 | 0.252 | 0.711 | 0.250 | 4.50 | 0.216 | 101.50 | 20.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Chris TIllman BAL (vs. HOU) – The Astros are the AL version of the Brewers in terms of hitter strikeouts, but Tillman is unlikely to derive much of a benefit. He hasn’t exceeded seven strikeouts in a game since early June, including a four-count of Ks in three of his last four starts and a modest rate of 7.5 K/9 on the season. His strengths of run prevention have also been a bit rusty lately; he had four consecutive starts of 7.0 innings pitched and just one run allowed in each turn to start July, but in his last four starts the ERA has been a far-less-impressive 4.94 with an opponents’ SLG of .451 over that stretch.He gets a small bump for the won-loss record and the likelihood of strong run support, but Tillman is teetering on the edge of the Call list despite his hacking opponent, as the Orioles also have the capacity to score a lot of runs (at they proved yesterday in a 15-8 victory.
Ian Kennedy KC (vs. MIN) – Kennedy has been good for a strikeout-per-inning this season and he is loving the efficiency of the Kansas City defense, posting a rate of 7.7 H/9 that’s his lowest since his 21-win season of 2011. The issue is homers. Last season, Kennedy posted a seemingly unrepeatable rate of 1.7 HR/9, with 31 homers allowed in 30 starts on the campaign. Such a rate seemed bound to regress downward, but Kennedy has been even more susceptible to the longball this season, with 28 bombs given up in 24 starts, resulting in a career-high rate of 1.8 HR/9, upping the stock of Minnesota sluggers like Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Max Kepler.
Robbie Ray ARI (at SD) – Ray has been piling up the strikeouts this season, with 161 Ks in 133 innings (10.9 K/9) for the Diamondbacks, but he is walking too many hitters (3.5 BB/9) and his home run frequency has doubled since last season, resulting in a 4.47 ERA that is almost a full run higher than it was in 2015. He has kept the ball in the yard for his past two starts, a pair of turns against the Mets that has involved just one earned run over 12.0 frames, though his strikeouts have also been few and far between with a modest K-count of nine whiffs over the two games. He had 30 strikeouts combined over his previous three games, but each involved five or more runs allowed, and looking at his game log there appears to be an odd relationship in which the run-counts move with the strikeouts – more Ks has meant more runs allowed. The net result has been a surprisingly low ceiling yet a higher-than-expected floor in terms of fantasy points, with 15 or more points on DraftKings in each of his last six turns yet not breaking 29 points in any of those half-dozen outings,
David Phelps MIA (at PIT) – Phelps has struck out an incredible 86 batters over 69 innings (11.2 K/9), though of course most of that work was compiled out of the bullpen. Phelps has only been in the rotation for the last three starts and the Marlins are slowly building his workload, resulting in 91 or fewer pitches and 5.1 or fewer innings in each of his three turns. He might be given a longer leash in today’s start, and his 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings as a starter suggests that there is K-related upside to be mined if he is given a full workload, but beware that he might be kept in the range of 90 pitches and five frames.
Chad Kuhl PIT (vs. MIA)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. STL)
Hector Santiago MIN (at KC)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. LAD)
Ross Detwiler OAK (at CHW)
Mike Fiers HOU (at BAL)
Ricky Nolasco LAA (vs. NYY)
Clayton Richard SD (vs. ARI)
Luke Weaver STL (at PHI)
Luis Cessa NYY (at LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Montgomery CHC (at COL)
Wily Peralta MIL (at SEA)
Brett Anderson LAD (at CIN)
Jeff Hoffman COL (vs. CHC) – Hoffman makes his big-league debut today, but he does so under suboptimal conditions. He’ll have to get acquainted with the terrors of pitching at altitude for half of his ballgames, but to pile on the added challenge of facing the formidable offense of the Cubs in Coors is a bit of overkill. THe 2014 first-rounder has some experience pitching in unfriendly places after spending 22 starts at Albuquerque in the PCL, where his 9.4 K/9 wasn’t enough to cover for a 4.02 ERA and a hit per inning, and it is unlikely that he will have solved the Coors puzzle before he arrived.
Tyrell Jenkins ATL (vs. WAS)
Daniel Norris DET (vs. BOS)
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