Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, July 9th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-10 03:06:26

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Editor’s Note: Kyle Lohse is starting in place of Nick Martinez on Saturday.

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Boyd	DET	TOR	86.2	7.17	4.83	1.55		16.8%	8.1%	2.28	0.73
Sanchez	TOR	DET	197.2	3.14	3.97	1.25		19.2%	9.6%	0.82	2.87
Teheran	ATL	CWS	313.1	3.56	4.06	1.17	70.0%	21.5%	7.5%	1.21	1.02
Quintana	CWS	ATL	311	3.30	3.72	1.23	50.0%	21.3%	5.4%	0.69	1.38
Martinez	STL	MIL	275	2.95	3.66	1.23		22.5%	8.2%	0.62	2.18
Anderson	MIL	STL	230.1	4.69	4.38	1.31	40.0%	17.6%	6.5%	1.33	1.12
Ray	ARI	SFG	214	4.00	3.94	1.42	33.3%	23.4%	9.0%	0.88	1.34
Peavy	SFG	ARI	193.1	4.33	4.51	1.26	42.1%	17.4%	6.3%	1.02	0.84
Gallardo	BAL	LAA	218.2	3.79	4.74	1.44	50.0%	15.3%	8.9%	0.78	1.55
Moore	TBR	BOS	159.1	4.97	4.32	1.41		19.8%	7.4%	1.41	0.96
Porcello	BOS	TBR	272	4.50	3.77	1.28	55.6%	20.7%	5.1%	1.26	1.37
Lamb	CIN	MIA	108.1	5.15	4.37	1.50		20.8%	9.2%	1.41	1.07
Conley	MIA	CIN	154.2	3.84	4.22	1.33		21.8%	8.9%	0.87	0.99
Sabathia	NYY	CLE	244	4.24	4.26	1.38	25.0%	18.8%	7.6%	1.18	1.38
Salazar	CLE	NYY	278.1	3.04	3.53	1.12	12.5%	26.7%	8.5%	0.94	1.21
Graveman	OAK	HOU	195.2	4.37	4.51	1.47		15.4%	7.6%	1.24	1.77
McCullers	HOU	OAK	171.2	3.41	3.72	1.32		25.4%	9.9%	0.58	1.71
Miley	SEA	KCR	274.1	4.79	4.35	1.38	33.3%	17.5%	7.5%	1.02	1.47
Volquez	KCR	SEA	299.2	3.96	4.41	1.35	50.0%	18.0%	8.5%	0.78	1.51
Lester	CHC	PIT	311.1	2.89	3.29	1.07	65.0%	25.0%	5.7%	0.78	1.58
Kuhl	PIT	CHC	11	4.09	5.43	1.36		14.9%	8.5%	0.82	0.61
Perdomo	SDP	LAD	53	8.49	4.19	2.06		17.9%	9.7%	1.70	2.63
McCarthy	LAD	SDP	23	5.87	2.61	1.22	35.0%	30.9%	4.3%	3.52	0.96
Scherzer	WAS	NYM	343.1	2.96	2.71	0.93	60.0%	31.5%	4.7%	1.23	0.77
Verrett	NYM	WAS	94	3.83	4.49	1.24		18.3%	9.5%	1.34	1.18
Eickhoff	PHI	COL	147	3.12	3.89	1.17		21.9%	6.1%	1.04	1.16
Anderson	COL	PHI	23.2	2.66	2.98	1.31		24.0%	5.0%	0.38	3.42
Nolasco	MIN	TEX	134	5.71	4.12	1.47	16.7%	19.5%	5.6%	1.14	1.15
Martinez	TEX	MIN	143	4.09	5.12	1.48	27.3%	13.0%	9.0%	1.20	1.30

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at NYM) – Scherzer has been occasionally stoppable, but more often than not he has been a machine of strikeouts and run prevention. The right-hander has been especially effective since the start of June, with a seven-start run of going at least 6.0 frames with a minimum of six strikeouts, spiking double-digit Ks in five of the seven turns and giving up more than two runs just once in that stretch. He destroyed the Mets two starts ago, striking out ten batters over 7.1 frames and allowing just three baserunners on two hits and a walk. Losing Yoenis Cespedes just further cripples an already injury-plagued offense, subtracting the biggest threat from a lineup that is bereft of them and setting up a game where Scherzer might coast, and the biggest risk might be that Dusty Baker has an early hook to give Scherzer an early start to his All-Star vacation.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (vs. NYY) – Salazar currently leads the American League with a 2.36 ERA, but his run-prevention success has been due more to consistency – more than two earned runs just four times in 16 starts, never more than four earnies allowed – than single-game spikes of domination. The same goes for his strikeout rate, which is excellent overall at 113 Ks in 99 innings (10.3 K/9, 28.3 percent) despite the fact that he has never top 10 Ks in a single game and has hit the double-digit mark just one time this season. He gave up just three home runs over his first 10 starts of 2016, but that has increased to five bombs over his last six games and Salazar is coming off his first multi-homer game of the season. The floor is very high and the ceiling is respectable, but Salazar thus far has lacked that extra kick to boost him into All-In territory.

Julio Teheran ATL (at CHW) – Teheran had been cruising for more than two solid months when he hit a pothole in Miami, giving up 11 hits and five runs in his last start, but that was the first time that he had given up more than three runs since April 14 and he still went deep into the seventh inning. Over the 13-start span of excellence, Teheran carried a 1.72 ERA and 85:16 K:BB ratio over 89.0 innings, with a miniscule 53 hits allowed. He appears to have found a new gear, and though the 11 hits that he gave up in his last start could be viewed as inevitable regression, consider that he had not given up more than a half-dozen hits in any of his first 16 starts this season.

Jon Lester CHC (at PIT) – Well, that was out of nowhere. Arrieta was having one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the majors, carrying a 2.03 ERA into his last start along with a K:BB pf 103:24 in 1-6.1 innings, but then the Mets bombed him for eight runs (all earned) and nine hits – including three home runs – and chasing Lester with one out in the second inning. The It was the second abbreviated outing of the campaign for Lester, the last one involving five runs over 2.2 frames on May 21, a game that he followed with a four-start run of dominance that included a 0.59 ERA over 30.1 innings with 33 strikeouts and just two walks allowed. Those rostering Lester today will look for a similar rebound.

Carlos Martinez STL (at MIL) – Martinez might not be piling up the strikeouts this season, but he is on a spectacular run of run-prevention that includes seven consecutive quality starts, a s[pan which covers a 1.46 ERA and just two homers allowed over 49.1 innings. The Brewers might help Martinez in the strikeout department today as they lead the National League in batter Ks, and the right-hander has taken care of limiting the free passes on his own, as the once-wild fireballer has trimmed his walks below 3.0 BB/9 for the year.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. ATL) – The Braves are relatively hopeless, a despair that only gets deeper when facing left-handed pitchers. For his part, Quintana has been very effective this season, with a cool 100 strikeouts in 111.2 innings and a 3.06 ERA to show for the campaign, but the bloom has come off the rose over the past month. Over his last six starts, Quintana has posted an unimpressive 4.76 ERA with seven home runs allowed. The Braves are notorious for staying in the yard the season, an element which should help to Quintana to get back on track heading into the All-Star break, but Atlanta has also ruined the best-laid hands of other, more-heralded starters, including Quintana teammate and fellow southpaw Chris Sale.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Boyd	0.431	9.90	0.375	6.35	0.268	0.792	0.308	6.07	0.295	0.00	16.8%
Sanchez	0.341	3.53	0.238	2.75	0.270	0.746	0.271	3.99	0.231	0.00	19.2%
Teheran	0.354	4.72	0.247	2.59	0.250	0.703	0.266	4.20	0.23	0.00	21.5%
Quintana	0.267	3.36	0.315	3.28	0.234	0.634	0.320	3.15	0.261	0.00	21.3%
Martinez	0.326	3.71	0.248	2.20	0.255	0.713	0.295	3.34	0.235	0.00	22.5%
Anderson	0.312	4.12	0.355	5.22	0.264	0.759	0.295	4.54	0.266	0.00	17.6%
Ray	0.298	2.93	0.340	4.39	0.266	0.720	0.330	3.71	0.261	0.01	23.4%
Peavy	0.328	3.86	0.318	4.77	0.265	0.740	0.289	4.02	0.256	0.00	17.4%
Tropeano	0.331	2.42	0.334	4.63	0.262	0.775	0.333	3.83	0.268	0.01	22.7%
Gallardo	0.345	4.84	0.307	2.80	0.256	0.720	0.305	4.12	0.269	0.00	15.3%
Moore	0.317	5.83	0.348	4.62	0.272	0.758	0.316	4.60	0.275	0.00	19.8%
Porcello	0.320	4.22	0.336	4.85	0.241	0.702	0.315	4.07	0.269	0.00	20.7%
Lamb	0.395	6.35	0.345	4.83	0.271	0.735	0.326	4.66	0.277	0.00	20.8%
Conley	0.327	4.75	0.310	3.62	0.245	0.709	0.303	3.89	0.247	0.01	21.8%
Sabathia	0.260	4.31	0.343	4.22	0.266	0.731	0.308	4.36	0.267	0.00	18.8%
Salazar	0.282	3.22	0.279	2.88	0.248	0.730	0.270	3.45	0.211	0.01	26.7%
Graveman	0.346	3.67	0.342	5.07	0.251	0.753	0.312	4.74	0.283	0.00	15.4%
McCullers	0.275	3.31	0.325	3.50	0.250	0.701	0.314	3.17	0.237	0.01	25.4%
Miley	0.308	4.45	0.336	4.89	0.275	0.741	0.307	4.15	0.269	0.00	17.5%
Volquez	0.298	3.43	0.319	4.51	0.250	0.741	0.296	3.92	0.253	0.00	18.0%
Lester	0.268	2.78	0.281	2.93	0.255	0.713	0.286	3.06	0.226	0.01	25.0%
Kuhl					0.247	0.740	0.286	4.16	0.256	0.07	14.9%
Perdomo	0.408	9.24	0.414	7.81	0.244	0.723	0.403	5.45	0.347	0.00	17.9%
McCarthy	0.297	2.13	0.469	10.45	0.239	0.679	0.288	6.22	0.267	0.00	30.9%
Scherzer	0.299	3.15	0.225	2.77	0.241	0.710	0.261	3.07	0.201	0.01	31.5%
Verrett	0.301	3.04	0.325	4.63	0.246	0.718	0.250	4.85	0.229	0.00	18.3%
Eickhoff	0.334	3.88	0.269	2.44	0.272	0.784	0.285	3.70	0.24	0.01	21.9%
Anderson			0.306	2.55	0.250	0.669	0.357	2.32	0.274	0.06	24.0%
Nolasco	0.331	4.55	0.365	6.75	0.258	0.739	0.350	3.89	0.298	0.00	19.5%
Martinez	0.310	3.38	0.383	4.76	0.243	0.699	0.29	5.26	0.271	0.00	13.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Lance McCullers HOU (vs, OAK) – No team is in a bigger offensive funk right now than the Oakland A’s. Over the past seven days, they have an MLB-low .238 wOBA and .539 OPS, and though they are a low-strikeout team that has continued to put the ball in play, they facing a right-hander who specializes in the strikeout. McCullers struck out 10 Mariners in his last start and has whiffed at least a half-dozen batters in each of his last eight turns. The right-hander has been especially strong over the last three starts, with a composite ERA of 1.86 with 22 strikeouts in 19.1 innings, tossing at least 5.2 innings in each start yet never exceeding 97 pitches. The last time he faced Oakland, McCullers struck out nine and allowed two runs over 7.0 frames back on June 5. He’ll be helped by the Rays recent futility, as they have hit for just a .267 wOBA with a 26.5-percent strikeout rate over the past seven days.

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB) – Porcello is a good bet to pitch 6.0-7.0 innings, which he has done in 14 of his 17 starts this season; the other three turns each went at least 5.0 innings, so at the least he gives staying power. That’s not always a good thing, but the secret to his recent success has been keeping the ball in the yard, as Porcello hasn’t given up a home run in his last three starts and has a 3.26 ERA over his last five, with just one home run surrendered despite giving up 38 hits in 30.1 innings. He’s a low-K option who lacks upside in that department, but whose low walk rate keeps the danger at a minimum.

Adam Conley MIA (vs. CIN) – The risk is rife with this one. He leads the majors with nine HBPs and has walked 39 batters in 93.2 innings this season (3.7 BB/9, 9.6 percent), yet he has corralled the hits, homers and runs enough to post decent ratios and 87 strikeouts in 93.2 innings. He blanked the Braves for six frames in his last outing, but it is the Braves and he only struck out a pair of batters, so there are plenty of caveats. In fact, two of his last three starts have featured a scoreboard saturated with zeroes, but both of those turns were against the Braves, but against the rest of the league Conley has a 4.29 ERA.

Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. SD) – McCarthy had a triumphant return to the mound, striking out eight Rockies over five innings at home, giving up just two hits, a walk and zero runs in the outing. It was his first big league start since April 25 of last year, but McCarthy had to be pleased with the result following a rocky rehab stint that included three home runs allowed over 10 innings in the California League. The first start was encouraging, but he only threw 72 pitches and may be similarly limited this time around, so enlist McCarthy’s services knowing that the downside could be steep.

CC Sabathia NYY (at CLE)

Nick Tropeano LAA (at BAL)

Robbie Ray ARI (at SF)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. ARI)

Kendall Graveman OAK (at HOU)

Matt Moore TB (at BOS)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. SEA)

Logan Verrett NYM (vs. WAS)

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. STL)

Wade Miley SEA (at KC)

Ricky Nolasco MIN (at TEX)

Kyle Lohse TEX (vs. MIN)