Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, June 4th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-05 02:44:22

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Escobar	ARI	CHC
Hammel	CHC	ARI	226.2	3.34	3.62	1.16	47.4%	23.7%	6.6%	1.03	1.07
Guerra	MIL	PHI	40.1	3.79	3.78	1.24		23.8%	7.9%	0.67	1.10
Hellickson	PHI	MIL	209.2	4.34	3.91	1.27		20.8%	6.4%	1.37	1.16
Tropeano	LAA	PIT	93	3.48	4.15	1.46		22.7%	9.4%	0.97	0.82
Locke	PIT	LAA	228.2	4.45	4.42	1.40	66.7%	16.4%	8.5%	0.91	1.88
Stroman	TOR	BOS	101.2	3.72	3.70	1.17	66.7%	16.7%	6.3%	0.71	2.87
Wright	BOS	TOR	142.1	3.29	4.40	1.19		19.1%	9.0%	0.95	1.10
Sale	CWS	DET	287.1	3.10	2.73	1.03	64.3%	30.3%	5.0%	0.91	1.16
Pelfrey	DET	CWS	217.1	4.43	4.71	1.55		12.0%	6.8%	0.87	1.85
Colon	NYM	MIA	255.2	3.98	4.05	1.24	42.1%	16.9%	3.4%	1.09	1.14
Nicolino	MIA	NYM	114	4.18	5.55	1.27		8.3%	6.8%	0.95	1.18
Hill	OAK	HOU	93	2.03	3.09	0.98		29.7%	7.8%	0.39	1.39
McHugh	HOU	OAK	265.1	4.10	3.90	1.32	42.9%	20.1%	5.9%	0.92	1.27
Andriese	TBR	MIN	100	3.51	4.16	1.19		16.7%	6.3%	0.81	1.42
Santana	MIN	TBR	156	4.04	4.39	1.35	38.9%	18.5%	8.1%	0.98	1.15
Strasburg	WAS	CIN	201	3.18	2.83	1.10	52.4%	30.0%	5.6%	0.90	1.24
Straily	CIN	WAS	77	3.86	4.40	1.25	14.3%	21.3%	10.6%	1.05	1.08
Kennedy	KCR	CLE	227.2	3.95	3.72	1.27	47.6%	24.3%	7.8%	1.54	0.94
Tomlin	CLE	KCR	120.1	3.37	3.76	0.95	23.1%	19.8%	3.0%	1.72	0.94
Nova	NYY	BAL	137	4.73	4.24	1.34	25.0%	15.2%	6.6%	1.25	1.87
Wilson	BAL	NYY	85.1	3.69	4.84	1.27		11.0%	6.5%	0.84	1.60
Samardzija	SFG	STL	290	4.41	4.06	1.24	60.0%	18.9%	5.5%	1.06	1.09
Wacha	STL	SFG	242.2	3.78	4.07	1.29	53.3%	20.0%	7.8%	0.89	1.46
Karns	SEA	TEX	204.2	3.61	3.90	1.29		23.4%	8.9%	1.10	1.18
Perez	TEX	SEA	145	3.85	4.44	1.38	37.5%	14.3%	9.0%	0.50	2.52
Foltynewicz	ATL	LAD	120	5.10	4.22	1.52		19.5%	6.9%	1.72	0.84
Kershaw	LAD	ATL	319.1	1.97	2.17	0.82	66.7%	33.9%	3.9%	0.54	1.78
Bettis	COL	SDP	179.1	4.67	4.16	1.40		18.4%	7.7%	1.00	1.69
Cashner	SDP	COL	231.2	4.43	4.17	1.43	75.0%	19.5%	8.4%	0.93	1.56

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. ATL) – .It doesn’t get any better than this, the best pitcher in the game versus the worst offense, the latter of which has particular difficulties against southpaws like Kershaw.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at CIN) – Stras is a fantasy-point machine. He has thrown nine quality starts out of 11 turns, and Stras has struck out double-digit hitters the two times that he missed the QS, with five games of 10-plus strikeouts this season and 39 or more fantasy points (FanDuel) in every start this season. Stras has been tough regardless of opponent, and in his last three starts he has topped the Mets twice and the Cardinals once, with 25 strikeouts and five walks across 18.2 innings to bring his record to a cool 7 – 0. Strasburg would earn the “All-in” designation if Kershaw weren’t going today, and for those who are playing earlier slates, consider Stras to be All-in option 1B.

Chris Sale CHW (at DET) – The past two starts have been the two worst outings of the season for Sale, and the only two turns in which he failed to crack 40 points on FanDuel. That statements makes things sounds worst than they are, as his last start was actually pretty solid, giving up two runs and nine baserunners in 7.0 innings with seven strikeouts against the Royals. It was the prior start where things went awry, with six runs surrendered in just 3.1 innings against the Indians. Prior to the Cleveland game, the lanky left-hander owned a seven-start run of two or fewer runs allowed, with six of those seven turns lasting 7.0 or more frames. His new contact-heavy approach limits the K count and thus puts a dent into his fantasy upside, but the bonuses associated with complete games, shutouts and the like make up the difference for a pitcher who has already gone the distance three times this season in 11 starts.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at STL) – Samardzija walked just 2.1 batters per nine last season but was tattooed for an MLB-leading 228 hits and 118 earned runs, so the narrative states that he threw too many strikes and got punished for it. This season, the Shark has walked the same 2.1 batters per nine, but trimmed the hits by 20-percent and cut the home run rate in half, and the fantasy community has embraced him once again thanks to the two runs that Samardzija has shaved off his ERA. He stands out like a sore thumb amongst today’s particular crowd of Raise-worthy pitchers,as both Sale and Strasburg are All-in candidates on the right day and with the context to support it, yet Samardzija will likely never be seriously considered among the game’s elite, even for a day. Throw in his difficult opponent, and there is a considerable gulf between Samardijza and the top three arms on the board, but the distance from the Shark to the next pitcher below him on the list might be even wider.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Escobar					0.242	0.714
Hammel	0.310	2.75	0.291	3.79	0.266	0.744	0.283	3.59	0.232	0.01	23.7%
Guerra	0.314	3.78	0.282	3.80	0.243	0.676	0.312	3.11	0.245	0.03	23.8%
Hellickson	0.342	4.24	0.321	4.40	0.254	0.712	0.291	4.27	0.253	0.01	20.8%
Tropeano	0.332	2.42	0.336	4.63	0.268	0.744	0.333	3.80	0.268	0.01	22.7%
Locke	0.326	5.27	0.323	4.19	0.233	0.667	0.300	4.23	0.264	0.00	16.4%
Stroman	0.290	3.72	0.291	3.72	0.271	0.763	0.276	3.64	0.242	0.01	16.7%
Wright	0.278	3.27	0.293	3.30	0.259	0.776	0.251	4.11	0.219	0.01	19.1%
Sale	0.259	2.82	0.273	3.15	0.271	0.776	0.297	2.78	0.22	0.01	30.3%
Pelfrey	0.374	4.96	0.330	3.97	0.250	0.697	0.337	4.39	0.309	0.00	12.0%
Colon	0.308	3.63	0.316	4.37	0.259	0.697	0.305	3.77	0.272	0.00	16.9%
Nicolino	0.298	4.24	0.329	4.17	0.239	0.714	0.265	4.76	0.262	0.00	8.3%
Hill	0.206	1.99	0.251	2.05	0.244	0.743	0.266	2.54	0.187	0.02	29.7%
McHugh	0.308	4.23	0.328	3.99	0.250	0.702	0.320	3.60	0.269	0.00	20.1%
Andriese	0.307	3.98	0.272	3.16	0.242	0.696	0.275	3.79	0.242	0.01	16.7%
Santana	0.338	4.72	0.308	3.39	0.243	0.703	0.298	4.08	0.257	0.01	18.5%
Strasburg	0.247	2.42	0.308	3.99	0.244	0.697	0.308	2.73	0.228	0.01	30.0%
Straily	0.310	4.73	0.288	2.92	0.244	0.711	0.249	4.41	0.212	0.01	21.3%
Kennedy	0.339	4.16	0.327	3.76	0.252	0.727	0.290	4.45	0.245	0.01	24.3%
Tomlin	0.228	2.21	0.341	4.41	0.269	0.737	0.226	4.47	0.219	0.01	19.8%
Nova	0.366	5.37	0.312	4.17	0.257	0.759	0.289	4.69	0.266	0.01	15.2%
Wilson	0.314	3.42	0.308	4.03	0.244	0.729	0.271	4.30	0.257	0.01	11.0%
Samardzija	0.343	5.47	0.289	3.46	0.264	0.756	0.298	3.89	0.259	0.00	18.9%
Wacha	0.279	3.42	0.323	4.06	0.263	0.738	0.290	3.80	0.244	0.00	20.0%
Karns	0.303	2.98	0.310	4.27	0.258	0.737	0.291	3.94	0.238	0.01	23.4%
Perez	0.236	1.71	0.331	4.45	0.259	0.731	0.298	3.85	0.261	0.01	14.3%
Foltynewicz	0.406	5.67	0.342	4.64	0.244	0.722	0.335	4.94	0.295	0.00	19.5%
Kershaw	0.219	2.09	0.220	1.94	0.228	0.625	0.270	1.86	0.187	0.01	33.9%
Bettis	0.322	4.90	0.342	4.45	0.239	0.674	0.310	4.06	0.267	0.01	18.4%
Cashner	0.360	4.94	0.314	4.00	0.270	0.770	0.32	3.99	0.269	0.00	19.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Matt Andriese TB (at MIN) – Today’s slate of pitchers is extremely top-heavy, and it’s a steep tumble in value from the Sale and Strasburg’s of the world to Andriese, who sits just two positions south of some of the best pitchers in baseball. Over the past two seasons, Andriese has struck out 113 batters over 99.1 innings at Triple-A, but that K rate has failed to translate to the majors, with just 69 strikeouts in an even 100.0 innings at the highest level. His low walk rate has translated flawlessly and Andriese has done a great job of limiting the homers this season in his brief exposure to big-league ball, and today he gets the benefit of facing a Twins offense that has scored the third-fewest runs/game in the league and just lost Miguel Sano to the disabled list.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. ARI) – A cramped hamstring hastened an early exit from Hammel’s last start, and though a limited pitch count has kept him at 6.0 frames or under in eight of his 10 starts this season, the stable source of run prevention has been a welcome sight from a pitcher who has been frustratingly volatile in the past. Hammel has surrendered more than three runs just once this season, and though the modest K counts of his game log act to limit his upside, topping out at eight strikeouts in a single ballgame, the right-hander has been able to limit the Pirates and Cardinals – the Cubs two biggest rivals – to two runs or fewer in the four starts that he has faced the division rivals.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. SF) – Wacha is going through a rough time, such that the baseline quality start that he threw in his last outing (6.0 innings, three runs) was a sign of serious progress. In his three previous starts, Wacha had gone exactly 4.0 innings in each game, with six or more runs allowed and three or fewer strikeouts in each, scoring between 2.4 and -6.2 points on DraftKings in the three games. The start that preceded the three consecutive implosions was hardly worth bragging about, either, with four runs given up over six innings. Wacha hasn’t struck out more than six batters in a ballgame in over a month and has posted a 16:9 K:BB over his last four games combined, as the soldier of run-prevention that was Wacha for his first three seasons in the bigs has gone away on some R n’ R this season.

Nate Karns SEA (at TEX) – For a pitcher with a touchy walk rate and a pitch-count ceiling at 105 throws, Karns has been remarkably consistent this season in posting good-not-great numbers. He has pitched between 5.0-7.0 innings in every start this season, has given up four or fewer runs in all 10 outings and struck out 5-7 batters in eight of ten. The one outlier was a nine0-strikeout performance against the Astros, a team that has a knack for giving opposing pitchers their highest K counts of the season. The consistency of his May starts was ridiculous, offering a stable-if-unsexy statline in each of his six turns.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. MIL) – Even when Hellickson was mowing down hitters in his youth, strikeouts were not part of the statistical portfolio. He did notch 8.2 K/9 in his rookie season, a stretch that covered all of 36.2 innings, but in the larger samples since Hellickson has neer topped 7.6 K/9 in a season. That’s what makes his stat-line pop in 2016, as Helix has whiffed more than a batter per inning this season while simultaneously posting the lowest walk rate of his career on a per-inning basis, with 2.0 BB/9 so far this season. His home runs have always been – and continue to be – a major problem, and Hellickson has already given up 10 home runs in just 63.2 innings, but the whole package has made Helix relevant again after years of toiling in fantasy obscurity.

Junior Guerra MIL (at PHI) – Guerra blanked the Padres for six innings on May 13 and posted zeroes over another five frames against the Braves two starts later, but outside of those two soft landings, Guerra has struggled two keep the scoreboard in check. He has allowed three or four runs in each of the other four starts, and though he did rack up 11 strikeouts against the Cubs over 7.0 innings, it’s the only time this season that Guerra has tossed more than 6.1 innings or struck out more than a half-dozen batters in any single game. He’ll get another chance to take advantage of a weak lineup in tonight’s game against the Phillies, but his opponent is the only thing keeping his decent ranking afloat.

Ian Kennedy KC (at CLE)

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. KC)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. SEA)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. WAS)

Marcus Stroman TOR (at BOS) – Stroman has been a bit of a disappointment this season, particularly given the lofty expectations surrounding his potential improvement this season after missing most of 2015 with a knee injury. He has been decent but little more so far this season, and now Stroman heads to Boston to face the toughest offense in the American League.

Bartolo Colon NYM (at MIA)

Collin McHugh HOU (vs. OAK)

Andrew Cashner SD (vs. COL)

Steven Wright BOS (vs. TOR)

Ivan Nova NYY (at BAL)

Chad Bettis COL (at SD)

Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. NYM)

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. TB)

Tyler Wilson BAL (vs. NYY)

Jeff Locke PIT (vs. LAA)

Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. CHW)