Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 20th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 231.1 | 3.58 | 4.31 | 1.2 | 42.42% | 22.4% | 8.4% | 1.48 | 34.0% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | CHC | 196.1 | 4.17 | 4.62 | 1.37 | 16.67% | 19.0% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 36.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | OAK | 204.2 | 3.65 | 3.81 | 1.23 | 46.67% | 26.4% | 9.3% | 1.28 | 45.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | PIT | 169.1 | 4.46 | 3.76 | 1.34 | 33.33% | 26.6% | 8.8% | 1.54 | 37.0% |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | BAL | |||||||||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | ATL | 283 | 2.93 | 3.01 | 0.96 | 67.65% | 31.7% | 6.2% | 1.21 | 33.0% |
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | HOU | |||||||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 244.2 | 3.57 | 3.86 | 1.14 | 58.06% | 19.9% | 4.8% | 1.18 | 48.8% |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | CIN | 49 | 3.31 | 4.79 | 1.16 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 1.10 | 46.4% | |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | NYM | 44.2 | 5.64 | 4.83 | 1.63 | 24.6% | 15.3% | 1.01 | 40.5% | |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | DET | 153.1 | 4.64 | 4.56 | 1.28 | 21.74% | 21.2% | 8.5% | 2.05 | 29.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | STL | 256.1 | 4.11 | 3.88 | 1.2 | 46.88% | 21.9% | 6.1% | 1.09 | 44.7% |
| Dan Straily | MIA | LAD | 234.1 | 3.73 | 4.62 | 1.15 | 45.16% | 21.0% | 9.5% | 1.38 | 32.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | SEA | 142.2 | 5.17 | 5.4 | 1.68 | 18.18% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 1.20 | 50.7% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | SDP | 219.2 | 4.83 | 3.65 | 1.46 | 28.13% | 28.5% | 10.0% | 1.27 | 45.0% |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | KCR | 11.2 | 6.17 | 5.76 | 2.14 | 17.0% | 15.3% | 1.54 | 35.9% | |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | MIL | 242 | 3.53 | 3.89 | 1.15 | 48.39% | 24.1% | 9.0% | 0.89 | 50.1% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | BOS | 174 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 1.2 | 37.50% | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.14 | 46.7% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | PHI | 216.1 | 3.74 | 3.81 | 1.2 | 30.77% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 1.16 | 52.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | TOR | 221 | 4.28 | 4.08 | 1.39 | 50.00% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 1.43 | 43.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | WAS | 235.1 | 4.05 | 4.48 | 1.26 | 48.48% | 15.8% | 4.4% | 1.22 | 42.2% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | CLE | 204.2 | 4.71 | 4.27 | 1.38 | 36.67% | 18.9% | 6.5% | 1.85 | 43.7% |
| Matt Andriese | TBR | NYY | 173 | 4.06 | 3.97 | 1.25 | 21.05% | 21.0% | 6.1% | 1.25 | 44.5% |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | COL | 97 | 4.36 | 4.61 | 1.24 | 30.77% | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.86 | 36.5% |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | LAA | 38.1 | 3.76 | 4.1 | 1.23 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 1.17 | 50.5% | |
| Justin Verlander | DET | TEX | 276 | 3.29 | 3.63 | 1.08 | 64.71% | 27.2% | 7.4% | 1.14 | 33.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | SFG | 244 | 3.21 | 3.9 | 1.24 | 51.61% | 22.7% | 8.9% | 0.81 | 55.5% |
| Julio Urias | LAD | MIA | 98 | 3.4 | 4.26 | 1.42 | 20.00% | 22.6% | 10.0% | 0.55 | 42.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | CHW | 163.2 | 5.17 | 5.16 | 1.53 | 21.74% | 16.2% | 10.8% | 1.15 | 44.8% |
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | ARI | 181 | 5.42 | 3.82 | 1.53 | 30.00% | 17.3% | 7.0% | 1.24 | 60.9% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
The night slate is a short one, with only seven games and 14 starting pitchers from which to choose. There are some enticing arms, but when price tags and opponents are considered, none of the 14 pitchers qualifies for All-In status. The early slate has Max Scherzer; the late slate has Carlos Martinez.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. SF, $11,100) – Looking at the FPPG on DraftKings, Martinez outclasses his brethren by a couple of points, which combined with his light-hitting opponent explains the high price tag. He had a couple of five-run blowups in his first handful of starts, but CarMart has a three-game run of quality starts under his belt in which he has scored more than 21 points on DraftKings in each outing, including a baseline QS in his last turn in which he beat the mighty Cubs despite giving up four walks on the day. His strikeout and walk counts have been all over the map, including two games of double-digit strikeouts (which came in his first three starts) and one outing in which he gave up an astonishing eight walks to the Yankees. He has punched out seven or more batters in six of his eight starts, and aside from that eight-walk outing he has mostly kept the free passes in check, with 13 total walks in his other 43.1 innings pitched (2.7 BB/9).
Justin Verlander DET (vs. TEX, $10,500) – Verlander has been playing hopscotch with his performance every two starts so far this season. His first two turns were gems that seemed to justify that he was back; the second set of two starts featured 13 runs allowed over 9.0 frames; he responded with 14.0 innings of 1.29 ERA baseball against the strong offenses of Seattle and Cleveland in his third set of two starts; and in his last two turns, Verlander has labored through 12.0 innings with a 5.25 ERA and 14:8 K:BB, two homers allowed and an HBP. If the pattern continues, then Verlander is due to kickoff a solid two-start string in tonight’s matchup with the Rangers, putting aside the wildness of his last two starts and pumping up his K-count with a few Joey Gallo Ks. Putting aside random patterns that happen to fit this narrative, I like the matchup for Verlander in this one, and the price is right at $10,500 on a thin slate.
Robbie Ray ARI (at SD, $8900) – Ray has the easiest opponent of the Raise group today, but he lacks the track record of the two pitchers above him and has had his price tag set accordingly. Above all else, Ray is a strikeout machine whose penchant for true outcomes can hit extreme levels, and the Padres’ free-swinging ways could yield an enormous K-count for Ray in today’s ballgame without inflicting too much damage to the ratios. Ray has knocked around in his last two starts, yielding nine runs on 11 hits and eight walks over a combined 9.0 innings against the Tigers and Pirates. His last start was especially painful from a DFS perspective, as Ray was bounced from the game after 4.0 innings against the lowly Pirates, with just two strikeouts on his ledger. The 4.57 ERA and 1.434 WHIP exhibit the downside of rostering Ray, but the gulf between that and his upside is as wide as any starter in the game. I’m rolling the dice on his opponent today, and seeing a big score in Ray’s near future.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 0.298 | 3.46 | 0.315 | 3.71 | 0.227 | 4.31 | 0.258 | 4.64 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | CHC | 0.3 | 3.86 | 0.376 | 4.42 | 0.262 | 4.62 | 0.296 | 4.62 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | OAK | 0.317 | 2.82 | 0.29 | 3.92 | 0.223 | 3.81 | 0.276 | 3.94 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | PIT | 0.347 | 4.83 | 0.316 | 4.12 | 0.252 | 3.76 | 0.313 | 4.26 |
| Michael Bolsinger | TOR | BAL | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | WAS | ATL | 0.324 | 3.41 | 0.202 | 2.49 | 0.196 | 3.01 | 0.257 | 3.2 |
| Michael Clevinger | CLE | HOU | ||||||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 0.287 | 3.23 | 0.307 | 3.9 | 0.244 | 3.86 | 0.279 | 3.85 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | CIN | 0.339 | 4.32 | 0.273 | 2.25 | 0.234 | 4.79 | 0.248 | 4.49 |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | NYM | 0.402 | 7.27 | 0.323 | 4.61 | 0.246 | 4.83 | 0.319 | 4.47 |
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | DET | 0.392 | 5.58 | 0.293 | 3.86 | 0.243 | 4.56 | 0.26 | 5.54 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | STL | 0.345 | 5.24 | 0.27 | 3.08 | 0.249 | 3.88 | 0.296 | 3.7 |
| Dan Straily | MIA | LAD | 0.285 | 3.81 | 0.311 | 3.66 | 0.207 | 4.62 | 0.229 | 4.76 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | SEA | 0.377 | 5.52 | 0.364 | 4.8 | 0.314 | 5.4 | 0.329 | 5.31 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | SDP | 0.289 | 4.72 | 0.345 | 4.87 | 0.258 | 3.65 | 0.344 | 3.86 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | KCR | 1.06 | 0 | 0.423 | 6.17 | 0.327 | 5.76 | 0.378 | 6.15 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | MIL | 0.295 | 3.55 | 0.267 | 3.52 | 0.213 | 3.89 | 0.263 | 3.64 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | BOS | 0.224 | 2.75 | 0.321 | 4.5 | 0.234 | 4.02 | 0.276 | 4.02 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | PHI | 0.351 | 3.96 | 0.293 | 3.59 | 0.265 | 3.81 | 0.298 | 3.92 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | TOR | 0.292 | 3.61 | 0.367 | 4.87 | 0.271 | 4.08 | 0.318 | 4.35 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | WAS | 0.339 | 4.13 | 0.307 | 3.98 | 0.271 | 4.48 | 0.296 | 4.18 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | CLE | 0.324 | 3.94 | 0.378 | 5.38 | 0.274 | 4.27 | 0.3 | 5.1 |
| Matt Andriese | TBR | NYY | 0.289 | 3.21 | 0.324 | 4.81 | 0.255 | 3.97 | 0.296 | 3.96 |
| Tim Adleman | CIN | COL | 0.343 | 4.64 | 0.338 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 4.61 | 0.261 | 5.34 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | LAA | 0.33 | 5.74 | 0.262 | 2.38 | 0.222 | 4.1 | 0.26 | 4.16 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | TEX | 0.273 | 3.36 | 0.287 | 3.22 | 0.21 | 3.63 | 0.262 | 3.57 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | SFG | 0.318 | 3.88 | 0.257 | 2.5 | 0.23 | 3.9 | 0.285 | 3.68 |
| Julio Urias | LAD | MIA | 0.356 | 3.54 | 0.304 | 3.36 | 0.259 | 4.26 | 0.333 | 3.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | CHW | 0.326 | 5.62 | 0.35 | 4.79 | 0.267 | 0.299 | 4.82 | |
| Luis Perdomo | SDP | ARI | 6.46 | 0.332 | 4.63 | 0.299 | 0.341 | 4.48 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Urias LAD (vs. MIA, $8,200) – The urge that I have to push Urias into the Raise category is ridiculous, because the kid has obvious Raise-worthy talent combined with one of the most astute learning curves that I have ever seen. The problem is the likely profit margin, as Urias had his first game of the season above 20 points on DraftKings two starts ago, followed by a six-run disaster over 4.0 innings in the thin air of Coors Field. He receives a mulligan for the high-altitude struggles, and with a 95-pitch start already under his belt the common concerns of a truncated workload are lessened, but his performance still has a few holes, including a poor 11:11 K:BB over 21.0 innings this season that renders any optimism as being tied to projection rather than his performance to date.
Jeff Samardzija SF (at STL, $9,500) – Things get dicey quickly on the late slate, and gamers looking for cash game options may have already stopped reading, as today is a one to invest in the top arms and not look back. Case in point: Jeff Samardzija. He’s given up an atrocious 5.26 ERA this season and was blown up for six runs on ten hits as recently as two starts ago. That said, he also stayed in the game for 7.0 innings and piled up nine strikeouts in the contest, earning a respectable 15.75 points on DraftKings. He was marvelous the game prior, earning 38.2 points by allowing just three hits and one unearned run over 8.0 innings against the Dodgers, striking out 11 batters along the way. He carries an incredible 63:10 K:BB in 53.2 innings this season and hasn’t walked a batter since May, adding a layer of intrigue to his statline. Basically, Samardzija is this year’s Michael Pineda. Roll the dice in a big tourney, but expect to suffer the consequences in cash games.
Zack Wheeler NYM (vs. LAA, $8,000) – The peripherals don’t support it, but Wheeler’s run prevention has been on fire since mid-April, posting a 2.51 ERA over his last five starts, covering 28.1 innings. The latter stat is more of a concern, as Wheeler has finished the sixth inning in just three of his seven turns this season, though that includes the last two games in a row (each of which went exactly 6.0 innings). In those last five starts, Wheeler has allowed just one earned run in four of them, yet pitch-count inefficiency has gotten him booted with just 14-15 outs recorded (he’s thrown 95 or more pitches in each start). To his credit, Wheeler has faced some tough offenses during his good run, including the Nats twice and the Diamondbacks once.
Kevin Gausman BAL (vs. TOR, $5,900) – No two ways about it, Gausman has been a giant disappointment this season. His stuff and delivery have long outpaced his performance, but Gausman showed signs of turning the corner last season, posting a 3.61 ERA over 30 starts, with an impressive 174:47 K:BB over 179.2 innings. But his statline is a mess this year, including an ugly 31:21 K:BB over 41.1 innings to go with a grotesque 7.19 ERA through his first nine starts. He’s also giving up 1.5 HR/9, but he’s had a vulnerability to homers his whole career, so that element is merely compounding the problem. So why does he rank this high? Because $5,900 is a laughably-low price, because the Blue Jays are non-threatening as long as Josh Donaldson remains on the shelf, and because he carries a little bit of value as a zig play in large tournaments where the rest of the field zags away.
Dan Straily MIA (at LAD, $7,900) – Straily has had one complete outlier of a game that is skewing his overall numbers. On April 22, he struck out 14 Padres (see? anyone can do it) against zero walks in 7.0 innings of dominance; in every single start outside of that one, he has recorded five or fewer strikeouts and has walked at least one batter. His K:BB on the season goes from a decent 40:19 over 43.0 innings to an ugly 26:19 over 36.0 innings if we remove that one start, and I expect his performance in tonight’s game to be more in line with the ratios from his seven non-San Diego starts than his one that was in SD.
A.J. Griffin TEX (at DET, $7600)
Alex Meyer LAA (at NYM, $6400)
Luis Perdomo SD (vs. ARI, $7000)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Yovani Gallardo SEA (vs. CHW, $7100)
Mike Bolsinger TOR (at BAL, $5300)
Mike Pelfrey CHW (at SEA, $4800)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window