Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 27th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | NYY | 67.1 | 4.14 | 4.31 | 1.22 | 60.00% | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.34 | 37.7% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | TOR | 164 | 3.18 | 3.39 | 1.13 | 47.06% | 29.8% | 8.6% | 1.10 | 39.5% |
| JC Ramirez | LAA | MIA | 133 | 4.13 | 3.88 | 1.22 | 18.7% | 6.3% | 1.35 | 51.1% | |
| George Farmer | DET | CHW | |||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | MIN | 230.2 | 3.59 | 4.17 | 1.15 | 45.45% | 21.6% | 6.8% | 1.44 | 36.2% |
| Robert Whalen | SEA | BOS | 20.00% | ||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | PHI | 46.2 | 6.75 | 5.18 | 1.48 | 14.4% | 7.2% | 2.89 | 33.1% | |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | WAS | 130.1 | 3.8 | 4.18 | 1.53 | 55.56% | 15.1% | 8.6% | 0.76 | 61.7% |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | MIL | 225.2 | 3.91 | 3.75 | 1.18 | 50.00% | 22.8% | 5.7% | 1.32 | 45.6% |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | CLE | 66.2 | 2.3 | 3.95 | 1.02 | 22.8% | 6.1% | 0.68 | 34.6% | |
| John Lackey | CHC | LAD | 240.2 | 3.66 | 3.81 | 1.13 | 55.17% | 24.0% | 6.9% | 1.31 | 41.8% |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | PIT | 43.1 | 3.74 | 4.34 | 1.29 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 1.04 | 49.2% | |
| Wade Miley | BAL | HOU | 214.2 | 4.74 | 4.25 | 1.43 | 30.00% | 20.2% | 8.4% | 1.30 | 48.1% |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | COL | 247.1 | 4.66 | 4.33 | 1.46 | 33.33% | 19.0% | 7.4% | 0.95 | 44.6% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | SFG | 170 | 4.18 | 4.2 | 1.32 | 31.82% | 20.3% | 6.7% | 1.32 | 41.8% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | OAK | 230.1 | 4.06 | 4.43 | 1.34 | 40.00% | 19.1% | 8.6% | 1.13 | 49.4% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | TEX | 238.2 | 3.43 | 4.09 | 1.12 | 41.38% | 24.0% | 8.3% | 1.17 | 34.2% |
| Vance Worley | MIA | LAA | 90.2 | 3.67 | 4.78 | 1.39 | 25.00% | 15.1% | 9.4% | 1.19 | 48.8% |
| Derek Holland | CHW | DET | 162 | 4.11 | 4.93 | 1.33 | 45.00% | 16.1% | 8.0% | 1.22 | 38.2% |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | TBR | 18.2 | 5.3 | 5.61 | 1.71 | 15.1% | 12.8% | 1.93 | 41.0% | |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | SEA | 5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2 | 24.0% | 12.0% | 3.60 | 37.5% | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CIN | 249 | 3.87 | 4.11 | 1.22 | 42.42% | 20.6% | 5.8% | 1.30 | 40.2% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | SDP | 208 | 3.5 | 3.33 | 1.11 | 58.33% | 28.7% | 7.2% | 0.82 | 42.0% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | ARI | 200.1 | 4.36 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 16.67% | 18.7% | 8.4% | 1.48 | 35.7% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | KCR | 184.1 | 4.3 | 3.73 | 1.39 | 40.00% | 29.0% | 10.8% | 1.32 | 44.9% |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | CHC | 80.2 | 4.35 | 4.33 | 1.28 | 22.22% | 23.5% | 11.0% | 0.56 | 41.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | NYM | 177.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 1.33 | 38.10% | 19.9% | 6.5% | 0.81 | 46.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | BAL | 231.2 | 3.81 | 3.58 | 1.17 | 50.00% | 21.1% | 6.6% | 1.01 | 59.2% |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | STL | 51.2 | 3.31 | 4.79 | 1.34 | 14.5% | 10.9% | 0.70 | 62.8% | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | ATL | 58.2 | 3.22 | 5.12 | 1.06 | 50.00% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 0.77 | 49.2% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. SD, $12,100) – Strasburg’s track record is a bit spotty due to various injuries and game-to-game inconsistencies, but take a step back and his performance looks very consistent on a rate basis. His ERA for the past four seasons has fallen between 3.14 and 3.60, and his WHIP over that same stretch has been even more consistent, coming in between 1.104 and 1.121 in each of the past four seasons. The strikeouts are a bit down this season, settling at just under a K-per-inning after breaking that threshold in every season of his career, including 11.0 K/9 or more in each of the past two seasons. The Padres offer Stras an opportunity to inflate that K-rate, given San Diego’s penchant for the strikeout, and that possibility vaults him from the Raise tier into the top spot as the All-In pitcher of the day.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Yu Darvish TEX (at TOR, $11,600) – Darvish has started to pump up the K-rate after a disappointing start to the season in the strikeout department, with 16 strikeouts over his last 12.0 innings pitched, though it took Darvish 105 pitches to get through just 5.0 frames in his last start. Part of the issue was walks, as Darvish walked at least four batters for the fourth time in 10 starts this season, and the high pitch count led to his exit before the right-hander could extend his streak of five consecutive quality starts. The Blue Jays would have been an easier target a couple days ago, but Toronto re-inserted Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki into the lineup after both players had been missing to the disabled list for the past several weeks. One of these days, Darvish is going to break out with a huge game with copious amounts of innings and strikeouts, but that is no longer the expectation, and the next time that Darvish cracks more than 10 strikeouts in a start will be his first of the season (he had a career K-rate of 11.3 K/9 entering the season).
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. NYM, $9,900) – Cole is coming off his worst start of the season, having coughed up five runs on 10 hits, a walk and an HBP in just 4.2 frames versus the Freeman-less Braves. It was a hiccup, but overall Cole has rebounded from a disappointing 2016 campaign to post a 3.36 ERA and just 1.9 BB/9 even after the rough outing. The K-rate is still unimpressive, matching last season’s strikeout frequency at 7.6 K/9. His homer rate has spiked oddly this season, with Cole giving up 1.3 HR/9 after never exceeding 0.7 HR/9 in any season prior and entering this year with a career rate of just 0.6 HR/9. The Mets are dealing with a slew of injuries that will make for an easier trail for Cole to blaze, though first he will have to get through the red-hot Michael Conforto a few times, since Conforto will likely be batting leadoff once again for the Mets.
Zack Greinke ARI (at MIL, $11,900) – I love what Greinke is doing this season, and I think that his rebound is absolutely real. That said, for a pitcher with a modest strikeout ceiling who is playing on the road against a tough lineup in a generous ballpark to bats, the $11,900 price tag just feels like it’s too high, as it essentially kills Greinke’s profit margin even if he overcomes all of the context-related obstacles. He doesn’t have the K-rate of a Strasburg or Darvish, nor is he facing the type of opponent to encourage a scoreboard full of zeroes, so it will be tough for Greinke to make his owners happy at that salary. He earns the Raise designation due to the general paucity of viable alternatives today, but the odds of Greinke turning a profit on his exorbitant price tag are slim.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | NYY | 0.283 | 3.64 | 0.322 | 4.54 | 0.237 | 4.31 | 0.268 | 4.22 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | TOR | 0.275 | 3.15 | 0.278 | 3.21 | 0.208 | 3.39 | 0.274 | 3.36 |
| JC Ramirez | LAA | MIA | 0.308 | 3.98 | 0.301 | 4.26 | 0.248 | 3.88 | 0.275 | 4.41 |
| George Farmer | DET | CHW | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | TBR | MIN | 0.262 | 2.07 | 0.332 | 4.75 | 0.231 | 4.17 | 0.26 | 4.35 |
| Robert Whalen | SEA | BOS | ||||||||
| Bronson Arroyo | CIN | PHI | 0.405 | 7.45 | 0.385 | 6.26 | 0.281 | 5.18 | 0.265 | 6.95 |
| Clayton Richard | SDP | WAS | 0.283 | 1.62 | 0.351 | 4.55 | 0.291 | 4.18 | 0.332 | 4.06 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | MIL | 0.304 | 3.91 | 0.304 | 3.91 | 0.245 | 3.75 | 0.287 | 3.84 |
| Jason Vargas | KCR | CLE | 0.4 | 5.06 | 0.227 | 1.77 | 0.211 | 3.95 | 0.26 | 2.99 |
| John Lackey | CHC | LAD | 0.319 | 3.88 | 0.282 | 3.51 | 0.227 | 3.81 | 0.268 | 4.06 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | PIT | 0.324 | 5.6 | 0.273 | 2.45 | 0.222 | 4.34 | 0.265 | 4.21 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | HOU | 0.281 | 3.4 | 0.352 | 5.09 | 0.273 | 4.25 | 0.319 | 4.44 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | COL | 0.363 | 5.45 | 0.323 | 4.05 | 0.287 | 4.33 | 0.34 | 3.88 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | SFG | 0.341 | 4.5 | 0.32 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 4.2 | 0.303 | 4.31 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | OAK | 0.299 | 3.05 | 0.317 | 4.31 | 0.25 | 4.43 | 0.287 | 4.38 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | TEX | 0.267 | 3 | 0.3 | 3.89 | 0.209 | 4.09 | 0.248 | 3.92 |
| Vance Worley | MIA | LAA | 0.354 | 3.98 | 0.31 | 3.4 | 0.261 | 4.78 | 0.284 | 4.87 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | DET | 0.239 | 1.48 | 0.338 | 4.72 | 0.255 | 4.93 | 0.279 | 4.61 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | TBR | 0.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 5.5 | 0.284 | 5.61 | 0.298 | 6.37 |
| Brian Johnson | BOS | SEA | 0 | 0 | 0.454 | 7.2 | 0.318 | 4.5 | 0.357 | 7.63 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CIN | 0.351 | 4.31 | 0.27 | 3.38 | 0.25 | 4.11 | 0.287 | 4.1 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | SDP | 0.257 | 3.08 | 0.297 | 3.94 | 0.217 | 3.33 | 0.29 | 2.9 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | ARI | 0.306 | 3.94 | 0.384 | 4.69 | 0.265 | 4.67 | 0.296 | 4.82 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | KCR | 0.315 | 4.38 | 0.325 | 4.23 | 0.241 | 3.73 | 0.32 | 3.99 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LAD | CHC | 0.301 | 4.46 | 0.273 | 4.25 | 0.222 | 4.33 | 0.286 | 3.39 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | NYM | 0.354 | 4.42 | 0.285 | 3.11 | 0.268 | 4.1 | 0.321 | 3.53 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | BAL | 0.236 | 2.37 | 0.311 | 4.2 | 0.239 | 3.58 | 0.282 | 3.71 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | STL | 0.364 | 6.97 | 0.289 | 2.4 | 0.232 | 0.259 | 4.37 | |
| Ty Blach | SFG | ATL | 2.79 | 0.318 | 3.43 | 0.217 | 0.223 | 4.17 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. BAL, $11,000) – Keuchel is in a similar boat as Greinke, with a high price tag despite a tough opponent in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In this case, Keuchel has an even lower ceiling of expected performance, and that’s before we get into the very real possibility that the Astros will exercise a quicker-than-normal hook in Keuchel’s first start back from the disabled list. His 2017 season is starting to look a lot like his Cy-winning campaign of ‘15, though his hit rate is significantly lower than it was in that magical season. His BABiP that year was a low .268, but this season the BABiP is a completely unsustainable .217; there’s no telling whether the regression will take place slowly over the next couple months or if he will get hit with a large chunk at once, but any expectation of his performance going forward should work a higher hit rate into the plan, even if his hit suppression is partly due to his affinity for generating weak contact.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. KC, $10,200) – Salazar is a true boom-or-bust candidate, seemingly just as likely to bomb a DFS roster and suck profit potential away as he is to spike a massive K-count for nearly $2,000 less than the Strasburg’s and Darvish’s of the world. Facing the Royals helps to increase the odds of the latter, but to turn it Salazar will have to do something that has eluded him thus far in four May starts: finish the sixth inning. He has been terrible this month, compiling a 7.50 ERA with an unconscionable eight homers allowed in 18.0 innings of work, completely nullifying any benefits of a 27:9 K:BB over that same stretch. Facing the low-scoring Royals will help, but the fate of Salazar’s DFS point total rests with his own ability to find a groove on the mound.
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. TEX, $9,500) – When did Estrada become a strikeout machine? He’s put up a 10.1 K/9 this season, while posting a rate of 8.3 K/9 or lower in each of the past four seasons, including a rough 6.5 K/9 a couple years ago. The homers have always been there, as 2017 is the 10th straight season in which Estrada has surrendered more than 1.0 HR/9, while his low hit rate of 7.9 H/9 is actually slightly above his career rate, as Estrada has made a habit of posting low BABiPs (.261 for his career). He’s a notorious flyball pitcher, a detail which has factored into both the high home run rates and the low hit rates that have persisted throughout his tenure, and yesterday’s return of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto lineup will give his DFS status a boost by providing the extra run support that might be necessary to earn the big W.
Zack Wheeler NYM (at PIT, $7,600) – There are few options that I really like on today’s slate of pitchers, as many of the prices to roster these arms are reasonably commensurate with their expected values, leaving little room for profit. I have been the low man on the totem pole for most of the season with Wheeler, but he’s put up respectable numbers and is facing the hollow skeleton of the Pittsburgh offense. The walk rate is still ugly at 4.2 BB/9, right in line with his career rates (4.0 BB/9), and overall he has a modest K/BB of 2.0, but things are on the upswing for Wheeler over the past month. In his last four starts, Wheeler has compiled a 2.08 ERA, but his meager 19:14 K:BB and penchant for short outings have laid plenty of doubt to his ability to repeat the feat of run prevention and casts a shadow over his prospects for today’s game, as Wheeler has gone no more than 6.0 frames in any of those last four starts and has been bounced with 5.0 or fewer innings under his belt in two of them.
John Lackey CHC (at LAD, $7,900) – Lackey has been lit up for a minimum of seven hits and three earned runs in four of his last five starts, a factor which clouds his likely contributions today against the Dodgers. That said, this is still a pitcher with an impressive 55:15 K:BB in 52.1 innings, but he’s been the victim of home runs this season with 12 bombs allowed through nine starts, and he’s given up at least three earnies in seven of those starts. At this point, his name and uniform are propping up his value, because assessing Lackey based on this season’s numbers alone would leave him out of gamers’ plans.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at MIN, $,7600)
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. CIN, $6,400)
Jason Vargas KC (at CLE, $6,600) – I’m with the consensus notion that Vargas’ impressive run is mostly an act of smoke-and-mirrors that the Yankees began to expose in a home-away set of two games in which they scored nine runs off Vargas over 10.0 innings. That said, his FPPG is nearly 20 points on DraftKings and yet his cost is hardly prohibitive, such that he can get rocked more than usual and still clear a profit.
Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. CHC, $7,300)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at SF, $8,200)
Wade Miley BAL (at HOU, $6,800) – We all knew that Miley’s early-season dominance was a fluke that was likely to be short-lived, and the illusion began to fade on his mirage of performance with starts that involved four or more walks in five of his first nine turns (five of eight if you exclude the 0.2-inning start from early May). He pitched a quality start his last time out, giving up three unearned runs over 7.0 innings against Toronto, but he also struck out just three batters and has given up as many homers over his last two games (three) as he did in the first seven starts of the season. He hasn’t struck out more than a half-dozen batters in a start since late April, so the reasons for optimism are fading fast.
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. ARI, $4,700)
Derek Holland CHW (vs. DET, $6,700)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. OAK, $7,200)
J.C. Ramirez LAA (at MIA, $7,100)
Phil Hughes MIN (vs. TB, $4,600)
Jharel Cotton OAK (at NYY, $8,200) – The price just doesn’t fit the player or the context in this case. Cotton is a fine pitcher who probably has a bright future ahead, but he’s only been priced above $8k once this season for a reason, and that reason wasn’t facing the Yankees. The $8,200 cost is tied for his highest salary of the season, despite his coming up to make a spot-start after being demoted with a 5.68 ERA, Methinks that DraftKings was ill-prepared for this one. Pass.
Bronson Arroyo CIN (at PHI, $4,900) – The low cost and weak opponent conspire to keep Arroyo out of the Fold group. So he has that going for him, which is nice.
Vance Worley MIA (vs. LAA, $4,800)
Buck Farmer DET (at CHW, $4,400)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Brian Johnson BOS (vs. SEA, $5,300)
Ty Blach SF (vs. ATL, $6,200)
Kyle Freeland COL (vs. STL, $6,000) – You’d think that Antonio Senzatela’s utter dominance at altitude last night would compel me to lift Freeland up the rankings, as well. Nope.
Rob Whalen SEA (at BOS, $5,500)
Clayton Richard SD (at WAS, $5,500)
Adam Wainwright STL (at COL, $5,700) – This one could get ugly.
This will be the last Daily Pitcher Breakdown written by yours truly. I want to thank all of the readers for indulging my DFS pitcher evaluations for the past three seasons. As an extra thanks, I’m going a bit longer with this piece and covering the entire slate of games, rather than my usual analysis of just the pitchers on the night slate. Good luck to everyone today and for the rest of the 2017 season – I’ll see you on the virtual field!
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlander’s Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window