Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 7th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-08 03:58:17

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Price	BOS	NYY	257	2.98	3.18	1.11	52.4%	26.2%	5.3%	0.74	1.13
Eovaldi	NYY	BOS	184	4.40	3.87	1.44	50.0%	19.0%	7.1%	0.73	1.96
Kershaw	LAD	TOR	278.2	2.10	2.21	0.85	66.7%	33.5%	4.3%	0.58	1.75
Dickey	TOR	LAD	241	4.22	4.72	1.24	47.6%	14.7%	7.2%	1.05	1.15
Griffin	TEX	DET	25	2.52	4.75	1.04		17.2%	9.1%	0.72	0.82
Pelfrey	DET	TEX	190	4.45	4.74	1.55		11.7%	7.2%	0.66	1.92
Locke	PIT	STL	195	4.52	4.26	1.48	66.7%	17.5%	9.0%	0.78	2.13
Wainwright	STL	PIT	55.2	4.37	4.46	1.37	84.2%	14.4%	6.3%	0.65	1.57
Gray	COL	SFG	49.1	6.57	3.72	1.72		22.7%	7.4%	1.09	1.38
Cueto	SFG	COL	249.1	3.32	3.73	1.12	76.2%	20.7%	5.0%	0.79	1.21
Gonzalez	WAS	CHC	201	3.49	3.74	1.37	46.7%	22.5%	8.8%	0.40	1.89
Hammel	CHC	WAS	194.2	3.37	3.50	1.15	47.4%	24.2%	6.1%	1.06	1.03
Kennedy	KCR	CLE	199.1	4.02	3.67	1.27	47.6%	24.2%	7.5%	1.54	0.94
Anderson	CLE	KCR	111.1	3.88	4.80	1.25		12.6%	6.1%	1.21	1.29
Hill	OAK	BAL	61	2.07	2.74	0.95		32.0%	7.5%	0.59	1.50
Wright	BAL	OAK	68	5.82	4.87	1.47		14.6%	8.0%	1.59	0.97
Miller	ARI	ATL	228.2	3.58	4.35	1.32	21.1%	19.5%	9.4%	0.75	1.32
Teheran	ATL	ARI	237	3.99	4.19	1.29	70.0%	20.6%	8.5%	1.22	1.06
Nelson	MIL	CIN	208.2	3.97	4.14	1.27		19.6%	9.0%	1.04	1.69
Finnegan	CIN	MIL	76	3.67	4.20	1.22		21.4%	11.3%	1.54	1.49
Santana	MIN	CWS	128	3.87	4.39	1.31	38.9%	18.4%	8.1%	0.91	1.11
Sale	CWS	MIN	252	3.11	2.66	1.04	64.3%	30.7%	5.0%	0.93	1.19
Hellickson	PHI	MIA	172	4.50	4.01	1.31		20.0%	6.6%	1.36	1.11
Koehler	MIA	PHI	209.2	4.42	4.76	1.43	52.6%	16.7%	9.9%	1.07	1.26
Karns	SEA	HOU	169.1	3.67	3.93	1.29		23.6%	9.5%	1.17	1.17
Keuchel	HOU	SEA	264.2	2.72	2.97	1.07	50.0%	23.2%	6.1%	0.61	3.10
Colon	NYM	SDP	218.1	4.08	3.94	1.24	42.1%	17.2%	3.0%	1.15	1.17
Shields	SDP	NYM	235.1	3.86	3.87	1.31	42.9%	23.8%	9.5%	1.42	1.27
Odorizzi	TBR	LAA	204	3.31	3.87	1.16	36.8%	21.5%	6.3%	0.93	0.89
Weaver	LAA	TBR	182.1	4.54	4.98	1.26	52.4%	13.1%	5.2%	1.38	0.70

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at TOR) – So the Blue Jays rip south… yeah yeah yeah, it doesn’t matter. This is Clayton Kershaw, and he’s about to show the crazy Canucks what National League baseball is all about. If you catch one hitter-pitcher matchup all week, then watch Kershaw versus Josh Donaldson in this ballgame. The hitter who destroys lefties versus the southpaw that squishes all opposing batsmen. Have the popcorn made ahead of time.

Chris Sale CHW (vs. MIN) – A lot has been made of Sale’s new, contact-heavy approach, but I think that the “low-K” results are largely driving the narrative here. The strategy is predicated upon the idea of being efficient with his pitches, and though Sale has certainly been strong in that department, tossing 7.0 or more innings while throwing 108 or fewer pitches in each of his first six turns, he was covering similar innings while throwing a handful more pitches during his double-digit-strikeout streak of 2015 (he pulled the feat eight starts in a row and in 10 out of 12). But these days, where 108 pitches are no problem but 118 pitches are considered a heavy workload, the fantasy galaxy will have to live with the 1.66 ERA, the 0.81 WHIP and nearly a K per inning.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. COL) – His last turn was his worst of the season. After going 7.0 or more innings in each of his first five starts, Cueto got bounced for six runs in just 5.0 innings pitched against the Reds though his peripheral stats enjoyed eight strikeouts. It was the second time of the season that he had allowed six runs in one game, and in both cases a decent K count was the only thing that spared him from a disaster outing. Consistency used to be the brightest feather in Cueto’s cap, but his identity as a pitcher has been in crisis mode ever since he was traded away from Cincinnati, the one place that he called home for the first 7.5 years of his big-league career.

David Price BOS (at NYY) – Every other ballgame, Price pitches a half-dozen or more innings with two earned runs allowed and nine or more strikeouts, compiling a game score in excess of 60 points. Every other other start, he gets blasted for five or more runs with a modest K count, hit batsmen in the ballgame in addition to home runs allowed. The alternating pattern is stark and the ultimate result has been an ugly 6.14 ERA, but the silver lining is that he’s on the good side of the pendulum for today’s game against the Yankees. Price figures to rebound, but even in crisis he is earning a decent point total for his fantasy owners thanks to a massive K count that includes 49 strikeouts in 36.2 innings.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at LAA) – Odorizzi has sneaky upside thanks to his penchant for big strikeout totals, including 16 K in 14.2 innings with a 1.42 ERA against the powerful Blue Jays this season, as he has faced them in both his first and his most recent tarts of the season. In the middle, however, the starts were much more modest: 4.09 ERA and just 14 strikeouts in 22.0 innings of work, though he walked just three hitters and has exemplified career-best control numbers so far this season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Price	0.281	2.47	0.278	3.14	0.255	0.738	0.300	2.79	0.231	0.01	26.2%
Eovaldi	0.354	4.78	0.292	4.11	0.268	0.750	0.337	3.51	0.281	0.01	19.0%
Kershaw	0.226	2.19	0.227	2.07	0.269	0.800	0.276	1.96	0.191	0.01	33.5%
Dickey	0.294	3.82	0.334	4.57	0.244	0.726	0.268	4.44	0.247	0.00	14.7%
Griffin	0.293	3.00			0.268	0.737	0.211	3.83	0.189	0.04	17.2%
Pelfrey	0.376	5.03	0.322	3.96	0.259	0.736	0.339	4.19	0.308	0.00	11.7%
Locke	0.346	5.64	0.323	4.19	0.231	0.668	0.319	4.01	0.272	0.01	17.5%
Wainwright	0.318	3.38	0.337	4.98	0.266	0.740	0.311	3.68	0.276	0.01	14.4%
Gray	0.358	4.88	0.404	8.17	0.266	0.746	0.408	3.75	0.324	0.00	22.7%
Cueto	0.265	2.34	0.312	4.22	0.268	0.774	0.286	3.32	0.239	0.01	20.7%
Gonzalez	0.273	2.87	0.309	3.68	0.236	0.690	0.329	2.97	0.255	0.01	22.5%
Hammel	0.301	2.51	0.298	4.06	0.245	0.708	0.285	3.53	0.233	0.01	24.2%
Kennedy	0.341	3.96	0.336	4.07	0.251	0.721	0.296	4.42	0.249	0.01	24.2%
Anderson	0.341	4.50	0.291	3.34	0.265	0.732	0.267	4.64	0.257	0.01	12.6%
Hill	0.231	2.57	0.252	1.91	0.241	0.675	0.267	2.66	0.185	0.03	32.0%
Wright	0.402	5.46	0.340	6.14	0.248	0.701	0.300	5.52	0.283	0.00	14.6%
Miller	0.325	3.49	0.279	3.66	0.254	0.675	0.286	3.83	0.239	0.01	19.5%
Teheran	0.383	5.48	0.252	2.76	0.265	0.740	0.283	4.35	0.244	0.01	20.6%
Nelson	0.365	5.44	0.261	2.90	0.246	0.698	0.275	4.28	0.237	0.01	19.6%
Finnegan	0.340	4.42	0.294	3.43	0.230	0.674	0.221	5.04	0.204	0.01	21.4%
Santana	0.337	4.90	0.293	2.83	0.251	0.701	0.289	4.01	0.249	0.01	18.4%
Sale	0.267	2.48	0.275	3.23	0.257	0.720	0.302	2.76	0.222	0.01	30.7%
Hellickson	0.343	4.42	0.326	4.56	0.258	0.692	0.292	4.33	0.255	0.01	20.0%
Koehler	0.344	4.60	0.320	4.24	0.245	0.681	0.292	4.63	0.259	0.00	16.7%
Karns	0.308	2.93	0.306	4.48	0.247	0.743	0.285	4.11	0.234	0.01	23.6%
Keuchel	0.203	2.87	0.277	2.68	0.259	0.727	0.277	2.92	0.222	0.01	23.2%
Colon	0.310	3.57	0.325	4.66	0.241	0.681	0.309	3.78	0.276	0.00	17.2%
Shields	0.368	4.39	0.292	3.39	0.246	0.717	0.289	4.48	0.242	0.01	23.8%
Odorizzi	0.269	2.82	0.327	3.87	0.248	0.705	0.278	3.52	0.234	0.01	21.5%
Weaver	0.348	4.25	0.324	4.83	0.243	0.696	0.275	4.90	0.264	0.00	13.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at CHC) – For the first time in his career, Gio’s walk rate is acting like an asset rather than a liability. His 2.6 BB/9 would be a career best if over a full season, and he’s pulling his usual trick of minimizing home runs (0.3 HR/9) as well as hits (6.3 H/9) this season. The WHIP is under 1.00, and though his K rate is down a bit from his typical K-per-inning pace, the trade-off in terms of baserunners and run prevention is well worth it. The Cubs are a whole different animal, though, and they been beating opponents so badly that to face the Chicago offense is like playing in Coors, offering worst-case-scenario context that puts a good pitcher in a bad situation.

Rich Hill OAK (at BAL) – Here’s what was said about Hill yesterday, before the game was rescheduled on account of weather: “ It’s tempting to think of Hill as the 10-K guy, as it seems to be his trademark to strike out exactly that many hitters, but while nobody was looking he’s been able to limit runs and log innings. Four of his last five starts have been of the quality variety and he has done so against some tough opponents, but facing the O’s in Camden will be the toughest test yet.” The same still holds.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. ARI) – Teheran lost hold of pitch command as well as manager confidence in his first couple starts of the year, posting a 5.64 ERA with 17 strikeouts and four homers allowed through his first four starts of the season. That particular stretch involved a who’s who of playoff contenders, as Walker faced the Dodgers and Cardinals one time apiece and the Nationals twice over that span. He also threw a handful of wild pitches to the backstop, instilling zero confidence in his ability to get the job done, but just as quickly Teheran has turned a corner. In his last two games, against tough opponents no less, Teheran has turned in 14.0 innings of 0.564-ERA work with 17 strikeouts and just four walks, besting the Red Sox and the mighty Cubs (in Chicago) in the process.

James Shields SD (vs. NYM) – Over his past two starts, Shields has finally started to get his season back on track, and though his strikeouts are still lacking with just seven punchouts in 13.0 innings over that stretch, there’s something to be said for the fact that he has gone 6.0 or more innings in all six pf his starts this season, five of which have qualified as quality starts (and the other was one run shy).The strikeouts continue to be conspicuously missing, whiffing six or fewer hitters in every game, but at least he;s been efficient with his pitches by maxing out at a pitch count of 105. Petco is playing like the pitcher haven of old, and though the light K count will hold back his ultimate fantasy value, Shields can bring plenty of value if he carries the right price tag.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. SEA) – To say something is wrong with Keuchel right now is an understatement. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner carries an ERA in excess of 5.00 and an ugly 4.4 BB/9 that would qualify as a career-worst if over a full season. He has allowed only one home run, which is good in the sense that he’s keeping the ball in the park but bad when you consider how much damage has already been done against the lefty without the longball coming into play. Should he regress in the area and have a game where elevated pitches, the combination of copious baserunners and deep drives could lead to crooked numbers on the scoreboard and a heastened exit for Keuchel.

Nate Karns SEA (at HOU) – The last time that Karns faced the Astros, he cruised quickly through the first four innings but it cost him in the K category, with zero strikeouts through the first four frames. Then he struck out the side in order in the fifth, and three of his last six outs were strikeouts, saving his stat-line on a day when he had been otherwise very efficient. Drafted for his K upside, Karns’ six strikeouts that day were pretty much par for the course in his consistent season, as he has punched out five-to-seven hitters in every start of 2016.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CIN)

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. PIT)

Bartolo Colon NYM (at SD)

Ian Kennedy KC (at CLE)

Shelby Miller ARI (at ATL)

Nate Eovaldi NYY (vs. BOS)

Jon Gray COL (at SF)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at DET)

Jesse Hahn OAK (at BAL)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at MIA)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. OAK)

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. PHI)