Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 25th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | CLE | 196 | 4.04 | 3.66 | 1.21 | 50.00% | 20.7% | 6.7% | 1.01 | 58.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | PHI | 139.1 | 4.84 | 4.18 | 1.26 | 31.82% | 18.8% | 4.6% | 1.55 | 39.9% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 206 | 2.45 | 3.75 | 1.01 | 63.33% | 22.5% | 6.3% | 0.83 | 48.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TBR | BAL | 105.1 | 3.67 | 3.99 | 1.2 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 1.45 | 51.9% | |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | NYM | 211 | 3.24 | 4.02 | 1.09 | 50.00% | 21.6% | 6.1% | 1.02 | 38.2% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | DET | 178 | 3.79 | 4.38 | 1.33 | 44.00% | 18.7% | 8.7% | 1.21 | 50.6% |
| Luis Severino | NYY | BOS | 91 | 5.44 | 3.58 | 1.31 | 9.09% | 24.0% | 7.0% | 1.48 | 46.0% |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | MIL | 99.2 | 3.61 | 4.11 | 1.33 | 20.00% | 17.6% | 6.3% | 1.17 | 46.8% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | TEX | 209.1 | 3.01 | 4.28 | 1.14 | 46.67% | 20.0% | 7.2% | 0.86 | 42.3% |
| Danny Duffy | KCR | CHW | 207 | 3.22 | 3.6 | 1.13 | 46.15% | 25.2% | 6.2% | 1.26 | 37.3% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | STL | 200 | 3.38 | 4.28 | 1.13 | 41.38% | 23.0% | 9.0% | 1.17 | 34.2% |
| Joseph Ross | WAS | COL | |||||||||
| Clayton Richard | SDP | ARI | 94.1 | 3.24 | 4.12 | 1.56 | 55.56% | 14.3% | 9.2% | 0.76 | 65.6% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | LAA | 64.1 | 5.18 | 5.14 | 1.52 | 22.22% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 1.26 | 45.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 177.1 | 1.83 | 2.41 | 0.73 | 80.95% | 31.4% | 2.0% | 0.61 | 48.5% |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | HOU | 186.1 | 4.88 | 4.22 | 1.24 | 44.83% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 1.84 | 44.5% |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | MIA | |||||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | CHC | 139 | 4.01 | 4.19 | 1.44 | 38.10% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 0.78 | 45.4% |
| Wade Miley | BAL | TBR | 185 | 5.01 | 4.09 | 1.36 | 30.00% | 20.6% | 7.3% | 1.31 | 47.4% |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | ATL | 62.1 | 3.18 | 3.56 | 1.3 | 42.86% | 23.5% | 8.0% | 0.43 | 54.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | SEA | 122 | 5.02 | 4.89 | 1.39 | 33.33% | 14.5% | 6.3% | 1.11 | 40.1% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | NYY | 246.2 | 3.36 | 3.76 | 1.06 | 45.45% | 21.2% | 3.7% | 1.02 | 43.3% |
| Zach Davies | MIL | CIN | 183 | 4.43 | 4.14 | 1.33 | 46.43% | 19.4% | 6.2% | 1.13 | 45.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | MIN | 143.1 | 5.02 | 4.81 | 1.51 | 22.22% | 18.5% | 10.6% | 1.19 | 46.7% |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | KCR | 10.1 | 7.84 | 6.2 | 1.94 | 4.3% | 10.6% | 2.61 | 50.0% | |
| Michael Wacha | STL | TOR | 156.2 | 4.77 | 4.26 | 1.44 | 33.33% | 19.3% | 7.4% | 1.03 | 45.3% |
| German Marquez | COL | WAS | 20.2 | 5.23 | 3.97 | 1.65 | 33.33% | 15.3% | 6.1% | 0.87 | 54.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | SDP | 177.2 | 4.91 | 4.38 | 1.55 | 25.00% | 18.3% | 9.1% | 1.32 | 53.2% |
| J.C. Ramirez | LAA | OAK | |||||||||
| Tyson Blach | SFG | LAD |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF, $14300) – The price tag is steep, but Kershaw is unparalleled among the pitching class. He’s worth $14k in a vacuum, but pitching against a bottom-quartile offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark vaults him well past the salary. Throw in an otherwise weak slate of pitchers, putting Kersh head and shoulders above the rest of today’s pitchers, and it’s not difficult to justify the marginal value. He’s putting up standard Kershaw numbers this season, with a K:BB of 32:2 in 28.1 innings and surviving a trip through Coors Field with an ERA of 2.61 through four starts this season. The icing on the cake? Kershaw has stepped it up a notch against the rival Giants, with a career ERA of 1.61 with a 0.805 WHIP in 263.1 career innings of head-to-head play, his most versus any opponent in his tenure. All systems go.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. TOR, $6800) – Once you get past Kershaw, the targets become all about value. Enter Wacha, who is performing like it’s 2014 and is facing an empty shell of the Toronto offense, which has lost Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki to the disabled list, watched Edwin Encarnacion walk away in the offseason and is currently watching Jose Bautista attempt to prove that the haters who claimed that he was washed up were right all along. Wacha has rattled off three consecutive quality starts, with a 2.41 ERA and 17:5 K:BB in 18.1 innings. He has also been efficient, with pitch counts of 83, 98 and 88 pitches to get through his six frames in each start, and he could go deep in this one if the Cardinals lengthen his leash.
Robert Gsellman NYM (vs. ATL, $7000) – There Is a thick tier of pitchers in the $9k-$11k range, but the pitchers in that category for today are largely SP2’s whose services are being offered at SP1 prices. Gsellman’s performance so far has been loaded with runs allowed, compiling a 5.09 ERA that could be worse if not for the four runs that were deemed unearned. On the other hand, his peripherals have been excellent, with a 20:6 K:BB in 17.2 innings, which are in line with the K- and walk rates of last season, frequencies which led to a 2.42 ERA. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle, but with a K-per-inning and a league-average walk rate, he can easily justify a $7000 price tag against a non-threatening offense like the Braves’.
Danny Duffy KC (at CHW, $10400) – it’s tough to tell what to make of Duffy. His peripherals are back to the uninspiring rates (7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9) that defined his portfolio for the two years preceding his 2016 breakout, yet Duffy has squelched the run-scoring efforts of opposing offenses with a 1.32 ERA and just 5.9 H/9. The combination of mundane ratios and a track record of shaky performance leave me pessimistic, but facing the White Sox provides a buffer; the Sox have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball so far this season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | CLE | 0.245 | 2.38 | 0.32 | 4.49 | 0.246 | 3.66 | 0.29 | 3.75 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | PHI | 0.319 | 6.26 | 0.332 | 4.56 | 0.267 | 4.18 | 0.295 | 4.45 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 0.283 | 2.16 | 0.244 | 2.66 | 0.208 | 3.75 | 0.25 | 3.41 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TBR | BAL | 0.359 | 4.34 | 0.287 | 3.31 | 0.248 | 3.99 | 0.265 | 4.71 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | NYM | 0.333 | 4.34 | 0.241 | 2.37 | 0.226 | 4.02 | 0.265 | 3.74 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | DET | 0.32 | 3.45 | 0.326 | 4.06 | 0.251 | 4.38 | 0.285 | 4.58 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | BOS | 0.301 | 4.47 | 0.352 | 6.36 | 0.257 | 3.58 | 0.308 | 4.18 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | MIL | 0.358 | 3.05 | 0.306 | 3.96 | 0.267 | 4.11 | 0.301 | 4.18 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | TEX | 0.272 | 2.63 | 0.286 | 3.4 | 0.226 | 4.28 | 0.265 | 3.67 |
| Danny Duffy | KCR | CHW | 0.215 | 1.69 | 0.316 | 3.55 | 0.234 | 3.6 | 0.284 | 3.78 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | STL | 0.269 | 2.81 | 0.296 | 4.01 | 0.203 | 4.28 | 0.237 | 4.1 |
| Joseph Ross | WAS | COL | ||||||||
| Clayton Richard | SDP | ARI | 0.279 | 1.46 | 0.35 | 3.88 | 0.291 | 4.12 | 0.329 | 4.2 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | LAA | 0.395 | 7.31 | 0.292 | 3.5 | 0.283 | 5.14 | 0.303 | 4.96 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 0.167 | 0.96 | 0.224 | 2.14 | 0.183 | 2.41 | 0.248 | 1.94 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | HOU | 0.297 | 3.72 | 0.361 | 5.8 | 0.275 | 4.22 | 0.287 | 4.85 |
| Vincent Velasquez | PHI | MIA | ||||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | CHC | 0.38 | 4.79 | 0.29 | 3.39 | 0.283 | 4.19 | 0.34 | 3.58 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | TBR | 0.289 | 3.66 | 0.347 | 5.38 | 0.271 | 4.09 | 0.316 | 4.32 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | ATL | 0.25 | 1.57 | 0.331 | 4.54 | 0.25 | 3.56 | 0.326 | 2.87 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | SEA | 0.313 | 5.34 | 0.365 | 4.66 | 0.279 | 4.89 | 0.306 | 4.35 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | NYY | 0.27 | 2.91 | 0.295 | 3.83 | 0.236 | 3.76 | 0.276 | 3.49 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | CIN | 0.337 | 4.2 | 0.319 | 4.65 | 0.269 | 4.14 | 0.313 | 3.99 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | MIN | 0.363 | 5.05 | 0.349 | 5 | 0.268 | 4.81 | 0.309 | 4.77 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | KCR | 0.367 | 3.86 | 0.596 | 16.2 | 0.357 | 6.2 | 0.324 | 7.74 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | TOR | 0.316 | 3.44 | 0.352 | 5.79 | 0.279 | 4.26 | 0.328 | 3.91 |
| German Marquez | COL | WAS | 0.391 | 4.91 | 0.397 | 5.59 | 0.315 | 3.97 | 0.361 | 4.26 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | SDP | 0.313 | 4.3 | 0.362 | 5.12 | 0.28 | 4.38 | 0.321 | 4.71 |
| J.C. Ramirez | LAA | OAK | ||||||||
| Tyson Blach | SFG | LAD |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at DET, $9500) – Felix has put a stop to the walks, with just one free pass allowed in 24.3 innings this season, but the walks have been replaced with a parade of hits (33 of them) including five home runs allowed. The results include a 3.65 ERA and 1.38 WHIP that are too similar to last season to sit well with his owners. He’ll take his high-contact act to Detroit to face a Tigers club that is without two of its biggest bats, with Miguel Cabrera having recently hit the DL and J.D. Martinez having his season debut delayed by injury for several weeks. Felix has been zig-zagging between low-hit games and those with double-digit safeties, and if that trend continues then he should zig toward a strong start tonight.
Julio Teheran ATL (at NYM, $10000) – Everything was coming up aces for Teheran through his first three starts, with a 0.95 ERA despite sketchy underlying stats, including a 15:8 K:BB through his first 19.0 frames. Then he faced the juggernaut offense of the Nats, who scored 7 runs off Teheran in 4.0 innings of work, with three strikeouts, three walks and seven hits allowed (including two homers). His performance so far represents both ends of the spectrum, but the peripherals have been consistently mundane, and though high K-counts are not part of Teheran’s profile, the spike in walks is undermining the control artist’s skill set.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. NYY, $9600) – Porcello is coming off his best start of the year, going seven innings while allowing three runs to the Blue Jays, though all of those runs were unearned. Then again, it was also a Donaldson-less ballclub that has been a bottom-five offense this season. Even with the earnie-less ballgame, Porcello has been hit for a 5.32 ERA this season, as the previous outing saw eight runs (all earned) cross the plate in 4.1 innings against the Rays. He’s still not walking anyone, but the egregious hit totals are back and too many of those hits have left the yard (5 HR in 23.2 IP).
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at PIT, $10200) – Hendricks’ quest to repeat as MLB ERA champion is off to a rough start. He has given up three or four runs over 5-6 innings in each of his three starts, resulting in a 6.19 ERA. He’s allowed four home runs and compiled a 13:7 K:BB over his first 16.0 innings this season, while the Cubs have pulled the plug after 91-93 pitches in each turn. One of those games was against the Pirates, but the silver lining is that it was the one game in which Hendricks kept the ball in the yard. The $10k price tag is based on what he did last year, but I will be staying away until he proves that he can do it in 2017.
Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. CHC, $8500) – Cole’s first four starts have been less than inspiring, but in his defense, his early assignments included the Red Sox and these Cubs. Cole beat the Cubbies two starts ago for his first W of the season, and his box score has improved with each successive start, tacking on Ks and allowing fewer runs, though the Pirates have kept him at 6.0 innings whether it takes him 114 pitches to get there (as it did against the Cubs) or just 91 throws to get his 18 outs.
Vince Velasquez PHI (vs. MIA, $9300) – Well, the strikeouts are still there (19 Ks in 15.0 innings), but VV has allowed a storm of hits (including four homers) and walks to compile a 7.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through his first three starts. He compiled his big stats in fits and bursts last year but we haven’t seen any single-game performance spikes yet this season. That said, the profile is perfect for large tournaments, where the payout is all about catching lightning in a bottle; just don’t trust him in a cash game lineup.
Luis Severino NYY (at BOS, $8300)
Ervin Santana MIN (at TEX, $7100)
Marco Estrada TOR (at STL, $8800)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (at BAL, $4400) – The matchup is asking for trouble and it will be tough for the Eraser to hit it big tonight in Baltimore, but the salary is ridiculously low and it won’t take much for him to turn a profit. For his part, Ramirez has allowed just nine hits and one walk through his first 14.2 innings, though three of those hits have left the building.
Wade Miley BAL (vs. TB, $6900)
Joe Ross WAS (at COL, $5300)
Patrick Corbin ARI (vs. SD, $5000)
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at PHI, $7600)
Andrew Cashner TEX (vs. MIN, $5400)
Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. SEA, $6400)
Zach Davies MIL (vs. CIN, $6600)
Jesse Hahn OAK (at LAA, $5500)
J.C. Ramirez LAA (vs. OAK, $4200)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Scott Feldman CIN (at MIL, $6000)
Clayton Richard SD (at ARI, $5100)
Ty Blach SF (vs. LAD, $5600) – Blach is taking a break from the bullpen to make a spot start against the Dodgers, but Blach will be on a short leash in what could amount to an all-reliever game for the Giants.
Dylan Covey CHW (vs. KC, $4300) – Any price is too high for a pitcher who has compiled a negative point total this season.
German Marquez COL (vs. WAS, $4200)