Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 26th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-27 04:03:59

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Velasquez	PHI	WAS
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	248.2	2.82	2.69	0.92	60.0%	30.3%	4.1%	1.09	0.81
Sale	CWS	TOR	231.2	3.30	2.55	1.06	64.3%	31.6%	4.8%	0.97	1.21
Dickey	TOR	CWS	229	4.09	4.73	1.24	47.6%	14.7%	7.2%	1.02	1.14
Hill	OAK	DET	42	2.36	2.49	0.98		32.7%	6.0%	0.64	1.60
Pelfrey	DET	OAK	174.1	4.39	4.63	1.51		12.1%	6.9%	0.62	1.96
Jimenez	BAL	TBR	196	4.09	3.87	1.37	27.8%	21.6%	8.6%	0.96	1.75
Odorizzi	TBR	BAL	188	3.26	3.81	1.14	36.8%	22.0%	6.3%	0.91	0.91
Price	BOS	ATL	238.1	2.61	3.17	1.08	52.4%	26.2%	5.3%	0.68	1.11
Wisler	ATL	BOS	122.2	4.70	4.88	1.40		15.4%	7.9%	1.39	0.78
Finnegan	CIN	NYM	65.2	3.15	4.02	1.16		22.6%	11.5%	1.37	1.67
Colon	NYM	CIN	207.1	4.04	3.94	1.23	42.1%	17.2%	2.9%	1.13	1.16
Nelson	MIL	CHC	196.2	3.98	4.15	1.27		19.4%	8.9%	1.01	1.72
Hendricks	CHC	MIL	192.2	3.88	3.33	1.15		22.4%	5.6%	0.79	2.01
Severino	NYY	TEX	73	3.33	3.75	1.29		20.8%	7.6%	1.23	1.95
Griffin	TEX	NYY	11	3.27	6.02	1.36		12.5%	12.5%	0.82	0.65
Anderson	CLE	MIN	102	3.35	4.89	1.17		12.3%	6.5%	1.15	1.27
Nolasco	MIN	CLE	51.1	5.79	4.07	1.52	16.7%	18.9%	7.1%	0.70	1.42
Cole	PIT	COL	218.2	2.68	3.27	1.10	28.6%	24.1%	5.5%	0.45	1.61
De La Rosa	COL	PIT	164.1	4.60	4.10	1.39	40.0%	21.5%	10.3%	1.15	1.81
Martinez	STL	ARI	192.2	3.04	3.46	1.27		24.1%	8.3%	0.65	2.10
Miller	ARI	STL	218	3.34	4.22	1.28	21.1%	19.6%	8.6%	0.74	1.37
Volquez	KCR	LAA	218	3.43	4.30	1.30	50.0%	18.7%	8.6%	0.70	1.42
Weaver	LAA	KCR	169.1	4.62	4.92	1.26	52.4%	13.3%	5.0%	1.38	0.73
Keuchel	HOU	SEA	252.2	2.46	2.96	1.03	50.0%	23.4%	6.2%	0.61	3.12
Karns	SEA	HOU	157	3.73	3.88	1.31		23.7%	9.2%	1.20	1.12
Koehler	MIA	LAD	197.1	4.20	4.71	1.42	52.6%	16.9%	9.8%	1.00	1.29
Kershaw	LAD	MIA	254.2	2.09	2.29	0.85	66.7%	33.1%	4.5%	0.60	1.69
Shields	SDP	SFG	222.1	3.93	3.79	1.33	42.9%	24.4%	9.4%	1.50	1.32
Cueto	SFG	SDP	233.1	3.43	3.78	1.13	76.2%	20.5%	5.3%	0.81	1.21

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. MIA) – Was there any doubt? If he’s pitching, then he’s the de facto number one pitcher available, with the possible exception of an away start in Denver, where even the gods of pitching are turned mortal (and every batter dons a mask of Zeus). Kersh versus Giancarlo will be worth the price of admission – I figure it’s worth a good five-percent of my MLB.tv subscription, right there. Fun Kersh fact of the day: Stanton has four career hits against Kershaw in 15 plate appearances, and three of those four hits have been for extra bases (two doubles and a home run).

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. PHI) – Scherzer was the most dominant pitcher of the first half last season before faltering down the stretch, but this year he’s getting the faltering done in April. Things haven’t been too bad, including a pair of seven-inning starts in which he recorded seven strikeouts apiece and allowed a total of three earned runs, with those tallies coming on three solo homers. The other two starts were disappointing all around, though, and through his first 25.0 innings the right-hander has a 4.32 ERA with 23 strikeouts against eight walks. The K count isn’t bad, but he has decidedly lacked last season’s dominance, as Scherzer hasn’t topped seven strikeouts in a game and last season’s gopheritis has struck Scherzer again in early 2016. He gets perhaps the worst offense in baseball in the Phillies, against whom he had his best start of the season (good for 25.75 points on DraftKings), but his overall line is made all the more concerning by the fact that his four starts have been against the Phillies, Braves (twice) and Marlins.

David Price BOS (at ATL) – Heading into his last start, Price had given up a few extra runs (4.50 ERA) but had punched out 27 batters in his first 18.0 innings, leaving his ace value intact. Then he faced his former team, the Rays, and they ran circles around Price to the tune of eight runs before he could escape the fourth inning. He gave up two home runs and plunked two batters in that ballgame, as the southpaw was lacking his typically-stellar pitch command. The Rays have a soft offense but the Braves are Downy soft in comparison, and Price’s left-handedness effectively neutralizes the lone fear-inducing hitter in the lineup, left-handed batter Freddie Freeman. It seems that a number of ace starters have had disappointing performances against the Braves, so rostering Price is to hope that he got the blow-up starts out of the way last week against Tampa Bay.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (at TOR) – Sale is normally a slam-dunk all-in guy, and if basing this ranking on recent performance alone then he would easily vault to the next tier. In his last two turns, Sale has allowed zero earned runs in 16.0 innings, giving up just four hits while striking out a dozen batters against no walks. The K count hasn’t been particularly impressive over that stretch, but Sale more than makes up the difference with his incredible pitch-efficiency and consistency – he has thrown at least 7.0 frames with a pitch count between 104-108 pitches in all four starts this season. We all know that the strikeout upside is in there, but facing the hard-hitting Jays – who mash lefties in particular – is the impetus that knocks Sale down a peg and into raise territory.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. SD) – Twenty-one outs. Cueto has recorded exactly 21 outs in three of his four starts this season. The odd duck? That game he lasted 22 outs. He even got his full seven frames in a game that saw six opposing runners cross the plate; he was so efficient with his pitches in that contest that he faced an astonishing 34 batters with just 104 pitches. He was equally efficient in his last start, needing just 83 pitches to 27 batters in order to record his 21 outs. Cueto is more about run prevention than strikeout totals, but he can increase the K count through the sheer number of innings that he pitches, and playing the Padres in cavernous ATT Park provides an excellent context for a big game.

Carlos Martinez STL (at ARI) – CarMart’s starts have been somewhat boring thus far, in the sense that the three turns have had very similar results. His last three starts have each earned 13-15 points on FanDuel and 18-25 points on DraftKings, with Martinez earning the quality start with at least 6.0 innings pitched and no more than three earned runs allowed in each game. His strikeouts have also been consistent, if a bit disappointing, with five or six Ks in each game so far. The most surprising aspect of this consistent run is that it has come against such diverse opponents: at ATL, vs. CIN and vs. CHC. Naturally, his best game was the one against the Cubs, aka the top offense in baseball right now.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Velasquez					0.247	0.713
Scherzer	0.282	2.99	0.236	2.64	0.244	0.678	0.264	2.86	0.204	0.01	30.3%
Sale	0.273	2.72	0.279	3.41	0.273	0.805	0.313	2.72	0.227	0.01	31.6%
Dickey	0.295	3.64	0.329	4.49	0.250	0.693	0.266	4.43	0.245	0.00	14.7%
Hill	0.240	2.53	0.271	2.30	0.281	0.805	0.298	2.58	0.204	0.05	32.7%
Pelfrey	0.375	5.47	0.313	3.53	0.247	0.699	0.337	4.07	0.304	0.00	12.1%
Jimenez	0.318	4.72	0.327	3.41	0.246	0.699	0.315	3.94	0.258	0.01	21.6%
Odorizzi	0.267	2.85	0.324	3.76	0.256	0.762	0.276	3.47	0.23	0.01	22.0%
Price	0.279	2.50	0.269	2.64	0.226	0.625	0.295	2.69	0.227	0.01	26.2%
Wisler	0.413	5.07	0.279	4.39	0.262	0.735	0.289	4.96	0.268	0.01	15.4%
Finnegan	0.336	5.06	0.275	2.54	0.247	0.735	0.210	4.71	0.189	0.01	22.6%
Colon	0.308	3.42	0.324	4.75	0.248	0.702	0.309	3.75	0.276	0.00	17.2%
Nelson	0.367	5.42	0.257	2.97	0.247	0.732	0.274	4.28	0.236	0.01	19.4%
Hendricks	0.341	3.73	0.252	3.98	0.256	0.708	0.294	3.25	0.24	0.01	22.4%
Severino	0.302	2.27	0.344	4.59	0.259	0.736	0.298	4.21	0.255	0.02	20.8%
Griffin					0.248	0.742	0.229	4.83	0.214	0.06	12.5%
Anderson	0.324	3.97	0.275	2.86	0.242	0.696	0.245	4.61	0.238	0.01	12.3%
Nolasco	0.306	6.12	0.367	5.47	0.253	0.724	0.356	3.46	0.295	0.00	18.9%
Cole	0.267	2.17	0.282	3.17	0.269	0.777	0.305	2.65	0.235	0.01	24.1%
De La Rosa	0.312	5.49	0.337	4.54	0.250	0.688	0.294	4.33	0.247	0.01	21.5%
Martinez	0.330	3.59	0.268	2.52	0.265	0.739	0.313	3.22	0.243	0.01	24.1%
Miller	0.319	3.12	0.279	3.55	0.262	0.746	0.286	3.72	0.24	0.01	19.6%
Volquez	0.302	3.00	0.301	3.87	0.247	0.702	0.289	3.77	0.244	0.01	18.7%
Weaver	0.343	4.15	0.327	5.10	0.264	0.729	0.277	4.89	0.265	0.00	13.3%
Keuchel	0.198	2.47	0.268	2.45	0.259	0.725	0.267	2.92	0.214	0.01	23.4%
Karns	0.314	3.07	0.306	4.44	0.249	0.751	0.291	4.12	0.24	0.01	23.7%
Koehler	0.343	4.76	0.314	3.64	0.246	0.731	0.294	4.48	0.259	0.00	16.9%
Kershaw	0.226	2.23	0.225	2.04	0.277	0.743	0.268	2.06	0.188	0.01	33.1%
Shields	0.372	4.51	0.298	3.39	0.266	0.745	0.295	4.54	0.245	0.01	24.4%
Cueto	0.265	2.44	0.313	4.39	0.242	0.681	0.283	3.39	0.238	0.01	20.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (at WAS) – It was telling that the Mets had so much more success against Velasquez the second time around. He has a simple two-pitch approach, and with wavering pitch command he often makes life simpler on opposing hitters due to predictable pitch sequences and locations. He throws very hard and the breaker can be a wipeout pitch at times, but lack of command and tendency to elevate pitches can leave him vulnerable to big flies and crooked numbers on the scoreboard. That sound is the heavy breathing of a drooling Bryce Harper.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at SEA) – Just when you thought it was safe to go outside… Keuchel looked like he had turned a corner when he blanked the Tigers for eight innings on five hits and a walk, following two consecutive starts in which he gave away four or more free passes (something he did once in 33 starts last season) in each. He reduced the walks to zero in start no. 4, but the results on contact were not so kind, as the Rangers beat him down with 13 hits and six runs over six innings. Last year’s Cy winner is in there somewhere, but there’s no telling it will resurface in time for tonight’s ballgame.

James Shields SD (at SF) – The 2015 season was a bit odd for Shields, as all three of his “true” outcomes spiked to career-high levels: 9.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and 1.5 HR/9. He’s paired the strikeouts back this season – in fact his current rate of 6.6 K/9 would easily be the lowest of his career if it were over a full season – but the walks and homers are up near last season’s struggles. It’s of course early and we have to consider that Shields has had some rough assignments thus far – vs. LAD, @ COL, vs. ARI and vs. PIT – but the consistency of the right-hander’s mediocrity leaves little room for upside or optimism.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. BAL)

Luis Severino NYY (at TEX)

Edinson Volquez KC (at LAA)

Rich Hill OAK (at DET) – Tigers feast on southpaws, and now that Miguel Cabrera did the old single-day-slumpbuster, there aren’t many reasons to not fear the Tigers. Hill will probably strike out 10 batters, regardless.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at COL) – It’s Cole’s first career start at Coors Field. Perhaps the naivete will allow him to overcome some of the mental obstacles that exist to pitching at altitude, but he also lacks the experience to know what not to do. Mistakes are expected, but in Denver those mistakes are subject to capitol punishment.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CHC)

Nate Karns SEA (vs. HOU)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at TB)

Shelby Miller ARI (vs. STL)

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. CIN)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. MIL)

Chase Anderson CLE (at MIN)

Jered Weaver LAA (vs. KC)

Tom Koehler MIA (at LAD)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. BOS)

R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. CHW

Ricky Nolasco MIN (vs. CLE)