Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, July 26th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | COL | BAL | 230.1 | 4.77 | 4.11 | 1.44 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 0.98 | 1.87 | |
| Tillman | BAL | COL | 300.1 | 4.23 | 4.60 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 1.02 | 1.15 |
| Hernandez | SEA | PIT | 271.1 | 3.45 | 3.66 | 1.21 | 81.0% | 21.9% | 7.7% | 1.00 | 2.04 |
| Liriano | PIT | SEA | 292 | 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.33 | 12.5% | 24.8% | 10.5% | 0.92 | 1.86 |
| Cashner | SDP | TOR | 258 | 4.47 | 4.14 | 1.43 | 75.0% | 20.0% | 8.2% | 1.05 | 1.52 |
| Stroman | TOR | SDP | 155.2 | 4.34 | 3.68 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 0.93 | 3.10 |
| Pelfrey | DET | BOS | 270 | 4.47 | 4.88 | 1.59 | 11.2% | 7.4% | 0.80 | 1.99 | |
| Wright | BOS | DET | 200.2 | 3.18 | 4.44 | 1.20 | 19.0% | 8.6% | 0.85 | 1.21 | |
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 295.1 | 4.21 | 4.82 | 1.42 | 52.6% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 0.98 | 1.25 |
| Martinez | STL | NYM | 294 | 2.94 | 3.61 | 1.22 | 23.0% | 8.2% | 0.64 | 2.21 | |
| Syndergaard | NYM | STL | 261.1 | 2.89 | 2.84 | 1.07 | 28.8% | 4.9% | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | CLE | 285 | 4.07 | 3.87 | 1.40 | 46.7% | 22.6% | 8.9% | 0.66 | 1.82 |
| Salazar | CLE | WAS | 296.1 | 3.19 | 3.53 | 1.15 | 12.5% | 26.4% | 8.2% | 0.97 | 1.27 |
| Gray | OAK | TEX | 309.2 | 3.63 | 4.00 | 1.22 | 60.0% | 19.4% | 7.6% | 0.93 | 1.81 |
| Lohse | TEX | OAK | 161.2 | 6.24 | 4.58 | 1.50 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 6.7% | 1.84 | 0.97 |
| Corbin | ARI | MIL | 200.1 | 4.54 | 4.11 | 1.42 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 1.30 | 1.78 | |
| Garza | MIL | ARI | 185 | 5.69 | 4.75 | 1.61 | 35.0% | 15.0% | 8.4% | 1.31 | 1.43 |
| Harrell | ATL | MIN | 23.1 | 4.24 | 4.90 | 1.29 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 0.39 | 1.07 | |
| Santana | MIN | ATL | 213.1 | 3.97 | 4.50 | 1.29 | 38.9% | 17.6% | 7.3% | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Hendricks | CHC | CWS | 291 | 3.31 | 3.55 | 1.11 | 22.2% | 6.2% | 0.77 | 1.83 | |
| Shields | CWS | CHC | 317.2 | 4.31 | 4.19 | 1.40 | 42.9% | 21.8% | 9.5% | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Sabathia | NYY | HOU | 267.2 | 4.47 | 4.31 | 1.40 | 25.0% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 1.41 |
| Fister | HOU | NYY | 221.1 | 3.78 | 4.70 | 1.31 | 58.3% | 14.6% | 6.8% | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Skaggs | LAA | KCR | |||||||||
| Flynn | KCR | LAA | 29.2 | 3.03 | 3.51 | 1.08 | 21.7% | 7.5% | 0.91 | 2.05 | |
| Archer | TBR | LAD | 335.1 | 3.73 | 3.32 | 1.23 | 55.0% | 28.4% | 8.3% | 1.05 | 1.33 |
| Norris | LAD | TBR | 175.2 | 5.58 | 4.09 | 1.46 | 26.7% | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.33 | 1.43 |
| Reed | CIN | SFG | 30.2 | 6.75 | 3.84 | 1.73 | 23.3% | 8.2% | 2.64 | 1.85 | |
| Cain | SFG | CIN | 120.1 | 5.83 | 4.85 | 1.54 | 40.0% | 15.4% | 7.2% | 1.72 | 0.88 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. WAS) – Despite being a full slate, the pitching pool is oddly shallow tonight, essentially shifting each class up a tier on the value scale. Salazar reaps the benefits to steal the crown for a day, earning the All-In title due to a lack of options more than an expectation of dominance, but that’s not to short-sell the right-hander. He has the second-lowest hit rate in the AL, the third-lowest ERA and the third-best K rate in the circuit at 10.1 K/9. Accolades aside, Sanchez is in the middle of a rough stretch, with 12 runs allowed over his last three starts, including 24 hits allowed and a 18:4 K:BB ratio in 18.0 innings. His excellent K rate is more about floor than ceiling, and though it’s encouraging that he has limited the free passes recently, he has essentially traded the walks for hits allowed.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (at LAD) – Archer edges Michael Pineda for the best strikeout rate in the AL with 10.73 K/9 this season, but also like Pineda, Archer’s run prevention has been completely unreliable. The sheer thought of Archer pitching in Coors gave his managers nightmares, but he went out and had one of his best starts of the season, striking out 11 batters over six innings with two runs, four hits and two walks allowed, He’s been crushed multiple times by divisional foes Boston and Baltimore this season and tonight’s matchup with the Dodgers will be his easiest assignment in over a month.
Chris Tillman BAL (vs. COL) – Tillman’s incredible run continues, with four consecutive starts of exactly 7.0 innings pitched with a differential of one run allowed deals and three-to-five hits. He hasn’t given up a homer since June, but the walk-between raindrops approach is evidenced by a K:BB ratio of 17:12 over his great four-start stretch. He’s given up just 16 hits over that stretch, but if the hit rate rises while the K count stays consistent, then he could be in for a world of hurt. Tillman is currently tied with Chris Sale for the AL lead in wins with 14 and is also tied with Sale for eighth in the league with his ERA at 3.18. The low K rate will also keep the ownership percentage low, creating a good zig opportunity.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at CHW) – Somewhat miraculously, Hendricks now has four games and 19.2 shutout innings in the month of June, lowering his ERA to a season-low 2.27 going into tonight’s game. He has teased with a 12-strikeout performance against the Pirates, but the K count has never exceeded eight in any of his other 18 starts. Don’t expect a long outing and the K count has suffered during his stretch of great run prevention, but the biggest difference is in the homers – he gave up just two home runs through his first nine starts, then gave up exactly one bomb in six consecutive starts of June, but has now kept the ball in the yard for four consecutive turns.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at PIT) – The King’s first start back from the DL was an unmitigated disaster. Coughing up ten hits, two walks and five runs to the White Sox. His peripherals have been unimpressive all season and how the ERA is starting to catch up, as he bookended the DL stint with 11 earned runs and 18 hits allowed in 12.2 innings. He has only notched more than six strikeouts in two of his 11 starts this season and has a K/BB ratio that is less than two-to-one, He only makes the Raise tier due to the lower threshold in place today.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | 0.323 | 4.45 | 0.352 | 5.09 | 0.262 | 0.772 | 0.325 | 3.98 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Tillman | 0.312 | 3.46 | 0.324 | 4.97 | 0.271 | 0.782 | 0.281 | 4.29 | 0.246 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
| Hernandez | 0.306 | 3.94 | 0.292 | 2.93 | 0.262 | 0.729 | 0.282 | 3.85 | 0.235 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Liriano | 0.284 | 3.39 | 0.308 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 0.729 | 0.294 | 3.81 | 0.231 | 0.00 | 24.8% |
| Cashner | 0.367 | 5.05 | 0.313 | 3.96 | 0.260 | 0.783 | 0.321 | 4.12 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 20.0% |
| Stroman | 0.322 | 4.87 | 0.300 | 3.75 | 0.239 | 0.684 | 0.300 | 3.88 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Pelfrey | 0.377 | 4.88 | 0.332 | 4.10 | 0.274 | 0.776 | 0.339 | 4.46 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 11.2% |
| Wright | 0.274 | 3.30 | 0.296 | 3.09 | 0.268 | 0.746 | 0.259 | 4.00 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 19.0% |
| Eickhoff | 0.344 | 4.35 | 0.271 | 2.85 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.290 | 3.76 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 21.4% |
| Koehler | 0.338 | 4.42 | 0.313 | 4.00 | 0.243 | 0.685 | 0.292 | 4.48 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 17.3% |
| Martinez | 0.327 | 3.82 | 0.250 | 2.07 | 0.241 | 0.711 | 0.298 | 3.33 | 0.236 | 0.00 | 23.0% |
| Syndergaard | 0.300 | 3.39 | 0.253 | 2.47 | 0.263 | 0.761 | 0.306 | 2.71 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 28.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.275 | 3.38 | 0.326 | 4.28 | 0.264 | 0.727 | 0.330 | 3.41 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 22.6% |
| Salazar | 0.288 | 3.48 | 0.282 | 2.93 | 0.246 | 0.720 | 0.278 | 3.47 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 26.4% |
| Gray | 0.279 | 2.99 | 0.306 | 4.28 | 0.259 | 0.742 | 0.276 | 3.85 | 0.237 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Lohse | 0.373 | 6.17 | 0.367 | 6.29 | 0.249 | 0.702 | 0.313 | 5.38 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 15.6% |
| Corbin | 0.328 | 3.63 | 0.349 | 4.80 | 0.239 | 0.697 | 0.316 | 4.40 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 18.8% |
| Garza | 0.372 | 5.80 | 0.354 | 5.59 | 0.264 | 0.738 | 0.327 | 4.87 | 0.297 | 0.00 | 15.0% |
| Harrell | 0.277 | 3.18 | 0.332 | 5.25 | 0.244 | 0.703 | 0.286 | 3.78 | 0.239 | 0.04 | 17.0% |
| Santana | 0.318 | 4.26 | 0.309 | 3.68 | 0.250 | 0.674 | 0.289 | 4.10 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 17.6% |
| Hendricks | 0.321 | 2.90 | 0.251 | 3.62 | 0.251 | 0.702 | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.228 | 0.00 | 22.2% |
| Shields | 0.369 | 4.37 | 0.316 | 4.25 | 0.247 | 0.739 | 0.300 | 4.75 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 21.8% |
| Sabathia | 0.263 | 3.93 | 0.344 | 4.60 | 0.244 | 0.744 | 0.309 | 4.38 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 18.3% |
| Fister | 0.343 | 4.37 | 0.300 | 3.17 | 0.247 | 0.728 | 0.281 | 4.59 | 0.261 | 0.00 | 14.6% |
| Skaggs | 0.275 | 0.739 | |||||||||
| Flynn | 0.219 | 1.54 | 0.299 | 4.00 | 0.248 | 0.708 | 0.244 | 3.61 | 0.207 | 0.01 | 21.7% |
| Archer | 0.288 | 3.89 | 0.298 | 3.56 | 0.249 | 0.736 | 0.303 | 3.35 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 28.4% |
| Norris | 0.391 | 6.17 | 0.311 | 5.07 | 0.242 | 0.703 | 0.322 | 4.49 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Reed | 0.421 | 6.57 | 0.265 | 0.723 | 0.360 | 6.11 | 0.311 | 0.00 | 23.3% | ||
| Cain | 0.403 | 6.54 | 0.356 | 5.29 | 0.246 | 0.702 | 0.317 | 5.36 | 0.296 | 0.00 | 15.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Steven Wright BOS (vs. DET) – The magic that allowed Wright to masquerade poor run prevention with a strategic deployment of the knuckleball has not enjoyed the same level of success more recently. The butterfly pitch is full of whimsy, and that unpredictably will cause some damage as well as keep his owners reaching for the antacids, given that Kluber is a right-armed pitcher.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at MIA) – It was easy to excuse the eight-run hiccup in Colorado, but it’s tougher to find excuses for his last game versus the Marlins. He gave up nine hits and an HBP as the Marlins scored six runs (five earned) in five innings. The question now is whether he can turn the tables in his return engagement with the Marlins.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. SEA) – Liriano announced his presence with authority in his last turn, striking out 13 Brewers and including four hits and three runs (two earned) crossing the plate. Perhaps more remarkably, he didn’t walk a single batter, following 62 walks in his first 98.9 innings pitched. The big-K game came at the expense of Milwaukee, a team that has a penchant for granting big-strikeout outings, though he might have a tougher time against Seattle. He has just seven quality starts in 19 turns this season, as Liriano is more likely to sink your battle ship than take your lineups to the promised land.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at CLE) – Gio has started to turn things around following a brutal stretch to start the summer, as he has allowed progressively fewer runs over his last five starts, counting down like a shuttle launch. His performance has been shaky throughout the season, and though the Indians have a few batters who lose a touch against southpaws, Gonzalez could be in for a long day if his pitch command dictates an inefficient outing, and his ERA is still a whopping 6.64 over his last 11 starts.
Sonny Gray OAK (at TEX) – Seven is his magic number, but not in a good way. Gray has given up exactly seven runs in four of his starts this season, including his last turn, a game that was supposed to be a cakewalk against the Rays. Prior to that game, Archer had gone 6.0 innings strong in seven straight starts, though one of those games involved a seven-spot as well. Gray’s trade values plummets with each outing, making it very tough for the club to get what they see as a“fair deal” until he shows signs of his previous levels of dominance..
Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. SD) – Three of Stroman’s last four starts have been excellent, with 6.2 or more innings pitched yet two or fewer runs allowed in each game. He even had a pair of eight-inning gems, but they bookended a seven-run disaster (six earned) against the A’s, allowing three home runs along the way. If you squint you can see real improvement in his performance.
Jaime Garcia STL (at NYM)
CC Sabathia NYY (at HOU)
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. ATL)
Doug Fister HOU (vs. NYY)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. PHI)
Patrick Corbin ARI (at MIL)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. STL)
Cody Reed CIN (at SF)
Tyler Skaggs LAA (at KC)
Matt Cain SF (vs. CIN)
Dillon Gee KC (vs. LAA)
Bud Norris LAD (vs. TB)
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. OAK)
Lucas Harrell ATL (at MIN)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
James Shields CHW (vs. CHC)
Matt Garza MIL (vs. ARI)
Andrew Cashner SD (at TOR) – The Jays are back in full force with Jose Bautista resituated at the top of the order and Cashner has been off-kilter all season, It’s potentially an explosive combination.
Chad Bettis COL (at BAL)
Mike Pelfrey DET (at BOS)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window