Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 13th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-14 02:24:51

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Urias	LAD	NYY	68.1	3.69	3.80	1.45		25.5%	8.7%	0.66	1.36
Sabathia	NYY	LAD	321.1	4.51	4.25	1.39	25.0%	19.2%	7.6%	1.34	1.41
Syndergaard	NYM	WAS	317	2.84	2.98	1.09		28.3%	5.5%	0.82	1.60
Cole	WAS	NYM	33	4.91	3.81	1.18		24.3%	5.7%	1.91	0.54
Nova	PIT	PHI	237.2	4.51	4.18	1.29	25.0%	16.8%	5.9%	1.36	1.72
Asher	PHI	PIT	35	7.71	5.63	1.57		10.0%	6.9%	2.06	0.72
Smyly	TBR	TOR	225.1	4.47	3.86	1.25	50.0%	24.6%	6.9%	1.64	0.66
Stroman	TOR	TBR	205	4.17	3.45	1.25	66.7%	19.8%	5.7%	0.97	3.05
Boyd	DET	MIN	143	5.35	4.52	1.39		19.0%	7.7%	1.95	0.79
Bundy	BAL	BOS	94.1	3.82	4.11	1.37		22.7%	8.6%	1.43	0.83
Pomeranz	BOS	BAL	244.2	3.24	3.77	1.16	25.0%	25.5%	9.2%	0.96	1.19
Esch	MIA	ATL
Wisler	ATL	MIA	245	4.74	4.77	1.36		16.8%	7.8%	1.43	0.87
Garza	MIL	CIN	235.1	5.16	4.69	1.53	35.0%	15.6%	8.5%	1.26	1.55
Desclafani	CIN	MIL	292	3.64	4.02	1.28	20.0%	20.1%	6.3%	0.96	1.23
Cotton	OAK	KCR
Duffy	KCR	OAK	292	3.58	3.95	1.23	57.1%	22.2%	7.0%	1.08	0.93
Bauer	CLE	CWS	341.1	4.22	4.31	1.30	38.5%	21.5%	9.8%	1.05	1.19
Quintana	CWS	CLE	390.1	3.25	3.77	1.20	50.0%	21.4%	5.3%	0.81	1.29
Griffin	TEX	HOU	106	4.92	4.60	1.33		21.1%	8.7%	2.04	0.61
Peacock	HOU	TEX	15.2	4.02	4.80	1.28	28.6%	17.9%	9.0%	1.15	0.61
Hammel	CHC	STL	322.1	3.63	3.87	1.18	47.4%	22.4%	6.7%	1.23	1.09
Garcia	STL	CHC	292.2	3.63	3.73	1.23	28.6%	19.5%	6.8%	0.86	2.49
De La Rosa	COL	ARI	275	4.55	4.45	1.45	40.0%	19.2%	10.1%	1.18	1.72
Ray	ARI	COL	283	4.04	3.74	1.39	33.3%	25.5%	8.9%	0.89	1.37
Walker	SEA	LAA	278.1	4.59	3.89	1.22		21.2%	5.6%	1.58	1.01
Meyer	LAA	SEA
Richard	SDP	SFG	87.2	3.29	3.60	1.44		14.3%	6.8%	0.51	3.98
Suarez	SFG	SDP	70	4.37	4.43	1.29		16.9%	7.4%	1.16	1.59

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (at WAS) – The biggest threat to Thor’s stat-line tonight is Trea Turner. The former has the lowest rate of home runs allowed among qualifying pitchers (0.5 HR/9) yet is lapping the field in stolen bases allowed, while the latter is a terror on the basepaths. Interestingly, opposing baserunners were 0-for-3 on stolen base attempts when Synder faced a Hamilton-less Reds club, one game after these Nats went 4-for-4 on steal attempts, two of which were taken by Turner. Syndergaard finished with two runs given up on three hits and a walk in the game against Washington, though his K count was limited to four strikeouts over 7.0 frames. Over his last four starts, Thor has posted an ERA of 1.00 despite a modest K:BB of 24:9 during that stretch.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. BAL) – Each of the Raise options today involves some roll of the dice, as the tier is littered with pitchers whose context dings their value for today. Pomeranz is facing a tough lineup that softens against southpaws, and he is on a run of seven consecutive starts of allowing three or fewer runs, emphasis on the “fewer,” as six of the outings have been capped at two runs. The caveat is that he is coming off three straight games against the flaccid lineups of the Padres and Rays (twice), though the latter still has some lefty crushers remaining after the Rays’ deadline deals. He has been oddly susceptible to homers during this hot streak, but he has dodged some bullets with four of the six homers being solo and the other two coming with just one runner on base.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. CLE) – He’s given up 11 runs over 11.2 innings of his last two starts, but a total of 15 strikeouts helped to minimize the damage. Quintana has been efficient with his pitch counts, allowing him to consistently pitch into the seventh inning and beyond, as he has tossed at least 6.0 frames in 12 of his last 13 starts. Prior to September he was on a roll, with a 1.81 ERA and 45:11 K:BB over his previous eight starts, covering 54.2 innings pitched. He gave up just four homers over that stretch, but he coughed up three home runs in his last two starts and has dealt with bouts of gopheritis at times as this season has progressed, after watching just two baseballs leave the yard in his first 12 turns of the year.

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. COL) – Ray has become a different creature in the second half and his immense strikeout totals demand your attention. The K count reached 12 in his last starts despite throwing just 6.0 innings in a baseline quality start against the Dodgers. He also walked four batters yet somehow kept the pitch-count at just 101 throws. He has been excellent in five of his last six starts, and the one aberration to his game log was a trip to Colorado. He has a reputation for volatility, but the floor is surprisingly high from the perspective of fantasy points, as he has scored 15 or more points on DraftKings in his past nine consecutive non-Coors starts. The Rockies have several hitters who are compromised against southpaws, from veteran studs Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon to the young upstarts like David Dahl and Raimel Tapia, and Ray is likely to post much better results with 4000 feet less elevation.

Danny Duffy KC (vs. OAK) – While his 16-K gem at the beginning of August may have misrepresented his strikeout profile, Duffy does have the ability to spike big K totals from time to time and is actually coming off a 10-strikeout performance against Minnesota. In his first two starts of September, the southpaw has 18 strikeouts in just 11.2 innings pitched following a string of just 23 strikeouts in 35.2 fames in the five outings following the 16-K monster start. Duffy has yet to face the A’s this season as a starting pitcher, but Oakland has not enjoyed the platoon-fueled success of last year and the batters of the green n’ gold have posted an OPS that is 14 points lower versus southpaws than it is against right-handed pitchers.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. TB) – Yesterday, I put a guy with a 4.00 ERA in the Raise section because the context was favorable (he then got hit up for four runs over six innings, but I digress), and today I’m upping the ante by recommending the 4.55 ERA of Marcus Stroman. He’s upped the ante on strikeouts recently, punching out eight or more batters in four of his last seven starts including his most recent turn, with eight Ks in five innings against the Yankees. His previous start was against the Rays, and his baseline quality start included just three strikeouts and 9.30 points on DraftKings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Urias	0.319	4.20	0.323	3.54	0.254	0.727	0.362	3.15	0.271	83.13	25.5%
Sabathia	0.277	3.90	0.345	4.66	0.242	0.701	0.306	4.55	0.268	94.76	19.2%
Syndergaard	0.298	3.30	0.260	2.46	0.251	0.729	0.306	2.76	0.231	0.01	28.3%
Cole	0.333	5.79	0.279	3.77	0.243	0.713	0.270	4.75	0.238	0.00	24.3%
Nova	0.366	4.67	0.308	4.37	0.241	0.684	0.289	4.61	0.264	79.22	16.8%
Asher	0.422	8.64	0.361	6.87	0.259	0.726	0.290	6.22	0.297	0.00	10.0%
Smyly	0.294	4.70	0.325	4.42	0.267	0.794	0.290	4.35	0.247	96.00	24.6%
Stroman	0.310	4.65	0.306	3.61	0.246	0.721	0.306	3.68	0.26	96.31	19.8%
Gibson	0.339	4.78	0.312	4.08	0.268	0.749	0.304	4.32	0.269	100.08	16.9%
Boyd	0.373	7.02	0.349	4.84	0.259	0.743	0.292	5.41	0.271	0.00	19.0%
Bundy	0.314	4.00	0.341	3.57	0.275	0.778	0.306	4.54	0.258	50.45	22.7%
Pomeranz	0.247	1.93	0.293	3.76	0.238	0.676	0.266	3.61	0.212	50.71	25.5%
Esch					0.255	0.694
Wisler	0.370	5.29	0.290	4.24	0.261	0.702	0.284	4.87	0.261	0.00	16.8%
Garza	0.365	5.40	0.329	4.95	0.251	0.713	0.311	4.76	0.281	0.00	15.6%
Desclafani	0.349	4.53	0.276	2.65	0.251	0.716	0.310	3.72	0.261	96.06	20.1%
Cotton					0.263	0.719
Duffy	0.235	2.09	0.326	3.93	0.249	0.702	0.295	3.89	0.246	68.59	22.2%
Bauer	0.310	4.15	0.305	4.28	0.252	0.705	0.278	4.18	0.234	89.89	21.5%
Quintana	0.269	3.13	0.310	3.29	0.268	0.743	0.310	3.29	0.256	104.43	21.4%
Griffin	0.409	5.98	0.284	3.88	0.249	0.746	0.272	5.57	0.251	0.00	21.1%
Peacock					0.261	0.751	0.261	4.61	0.233	37.00	17.9%
Hammel	0.321	3.33	0.296	3.85	0.260	0.761	0.276	4.01	0.235	88.34	22.4%
Garcia	0.300	3.32	0.298	3.70	0.253	0.751	0.290	3.73	0.246	89.52	19.5%
De La Rosa	0.327	5.05	0.339	4.39	0.267	0.775	0.302	4.58	0.26	90.57	19.2%
Ray	0.302	3.52	0.328	4.23	0.262	0.726	0.334	3.51	0.256	99.25	25.5%
Walker	0.309	4.31	0.334	4.92	0.256	0.723	0.282	4.53	0.25	90.52	21.2%
Meyer					0.250	0.737
Richard	0.270	1.95	0.338	4.07	0.263	0.718	0.322	3.62	0.282	24.55	14.3%
Suarez	0.335	4.09	0.339	4.62	0.237	0.682	0.28	4.50	0.252	60.89	16.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Julio Urias LAD (at NYY) – Though he had a somewhat bumpy introduction to the big leagues, Urias has since settled down to quietly steamroll the National League. In his last five games (four starts) at the highest level, Urias has posted a 1.44 ERA with a 25:8 K:BB in 25.0 innings, a stretch that has seen no more than two earned runs on his statline in any one outing. He did plunk three batters against the Padres in his last start, his first three HBPs of the season, indicating that the momentary lapse of control was fleeting and likely confined to just the one game. The Dodgers have let out the leash a bit on Urias. Who has thrown 89-97 pitches in each of his last three starts, so the workload-related concerns are less of a worry than they were during his first stint in the bigs.

Ivan Nova PIT (at PHI) – To say that Nova has enjoyed his brief stint in Pittsburgh is an understatement. He is coming off his second complete-game victory in his last four starts, each of which included just one run allowed on six hits. The K counts have been modest, with just 32 strikeouts in 46.1 innings as a Pirate, but he has kept the ball in the yard (just two homers allowed across his last six starts) and has walked only two batters in his seven games under Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage – he walked at least that many batters in eight of his 15 starts with the Yankees this season, and he coughed up at least one home run in 14 of those turns. With results that veer that far off his previously-worn path, clearly something has changed for the right-hander since leaving New York at the trade deadline.

A.J. Cole WAS (vs. NYM) – The strikeouts have been there over his first four big-league starts even if the run prevention has not, with a 4.56 ERA but an impressive 25:7 K:BB over 23.2 innings pitched. He drew a tough assignment in his debut, giving up two homers and four total runs against the Orioles in an interleague matchup with the Nats’ AL neighbors. He has given up six home runs already in his first four games, including a pair of gopherballs against the Phillies in his last start as part of a four-run performance over 5.0 innings, with his fantasy line being spared by his eight strikeouts and zero walks allowed in the contest. His best game so far was against these Mets, a team that managed just three hits and one run (a solo homer, naturally) off Cole in 6.0 innings of work two starts ago.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at CHW) – It’s easy to remember Bauer’s one excellent start of the recent past – 13 Ks over eight innings of two-run ball against the Blue Jays – and dream on the upside, but reality rears its ugly head to reveal that the 13-K game was the only time in his last nine starts that they right-hander has whiffed more than four batters in a game, and it was his only start with more than a half-dozen whiffs since mid-June. Clearing the half-dozen K mark was something that Bauer accomplished in six of his first 11 starts this season, and the control issues that plagued the right-hander during his first few seasons have returned , resulting in a poor K:BB ratio of 62:36 in his last 14 games (13 starts) covering 81.0 innings. Take out the one outlier, and we’re looking at a ratio of 49 strikeouts and 34 walks over 73.0 frames.

Drew Smyly TB (at TOR)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. MIL)

Jason Hammel CHC (at STL)

Dylan Bundy BAL (at BOS)

Matt Boyd DET (vs. MIN)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. LAD)

Jharel Cotton OAK (at KC) – Cotton struck out just three batters in his MLB debut but lasted 6.1 frames against the Angels, allowing just two hits and one run along the way. Don’t be fooled by the low K count, as the Halos are the toughest team in baseball to strike out (by a wide margin)and Cotton posted a 10.3 K/9 across two Triple-A stops this season, punching out 155 hitters in 135.2 innings split between the highest affiliates of the A’s and Dodgers. Expect a few more Ks tonight against the Royals, who are not the contact-laden ballclub that they were the past two seasons.

Matt Garza MIL (at CIN)

Clayton Richard SD (at SF)

Taijuan Walker SEA (at LAA)

Albert Suarez SF (vs. SD)

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. CHC)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. MIA)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at HOU)

Jorge De La Rosa COL (at ARI)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Kyle Gibson MIN (at DET)

Brad Peacock HOU (vs. TEX)

Jake Esch MIA (at ATL)

Alec Asher PHI (vs. PIT)

Alex Meyer LAA (vs. SEA)

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