Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 6th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-07 02:15:55

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Perez	ATL	WAS	165.1	4.74	4.86	1.45		13.4%	9.1%	0.93	1.89
Gonzalez	WAS	ATL	330	3.95	3.91	1.35	46.7%	22.3%	8.6%	0.68	1.74
Weaver	STL	PIT	21	3.86	3.40	1.33		29.2%	7.9%	1.71	0.94
Vogelsong	PIT	STL	190.2	4.34	4.61	1.43	52.6%	17.9%	9.8%	1.13	1.26
Sanchez	TOR	NYY	254.2	3.00	4.04	1.21		18.6%	8.9%	0.71	2.63
Cessa	NYY	TOR	36.2	4.17	4.50	1.09		15.2%	6.0%	2.21	1.29
Gallardo	BAL	TBR	282	4.18	4.94	1.49	50.0%	15.1%	9.8%	0.93	1.49
Odorizzi	TBR	BAL	331	3.45	4.03	1.18	36.8%	21.7%	6.8%	1.11	0.86
Kluber	CLE	HOU	405.2	3.31	3.21	1.05	57.1%	26.9%	5.6%	0.89	1.26
Montero	NYM	CIN	17.1	4.15	4.63	1.62	25.0%	23.8%	15.0%	0.00	1.25
Finnegan	CIN	NYM	202.2	4.04	4.65	1.29		20.2%	10.9%	1.55	1.17
Morgan	PHI	MIA	171.1	5.36	4.60	1.38		16.3%	5.1%	1.84	0.76
Urena	MIA	PHI	121.2	5.33	5.05	1.50		12.8%	8.9%	0.89	1.49
Hammel	CHC	MIL	316.2	3.47	3.84	1.15	47.4%	22.6%	6.7%	1.19	1.10
Peralta	MIL	CHC	204.2	5.10	4.73	1.59	47.4%	14.3%	8.2%	1.32	1.82
Boyd	DET	CWS	136	5.49	4.56	1.40		18.8%	7.9%	1.99	0.78
Gonzalez	CWS	DET	247	4.55	4.54	1.37	40.0%	17.7%	8.0%	1.24	1.15
Gee	KCR	MIN	144.2	4.79	4.38	1.51	50.0%	17.0%	6.5%	1.49	1.26
Santana	MIN	KCR	260.1	3.73	4.37	1.27	38.9%	18.5%	7.1%	0.97	1.17
Samardzija	SFG	COL	384.2	4.56	4.28	1.26	60.0%	18.1%	6.0%	1.19	1.13
Anderson	COL	SFG	89.1	3.43	3.62	1.21		22.3%	6.0%	1.01	1.97
Nolasco	LAA	OAK	201	5.28	4.35	1.39	16.7%	18.0%	5.8%	1.25	1.14
Detwiler	OAK	LAA	92	6.36	5.13	1.79		14.8%	11.1%	1.37	1.29
Miller	ARI	LAD	280.2	4.04	4.45	1.37	21.1%	18.6%	9.0%	0.83	1.36
Stripling	LAD	ARI	82.1	4.15	4.43	1.30		16.3%	7.2%	0.77	1.79
Buchholz	BOS	SDP	224	4.22	4.23	1.29	33.3%	19.1%	7.2%	0.96	1.26
Clemens	SDP	BOS	45.2	4.93	5.27	1.62		16.8%	11.5%	1.97	1.03
Perez	TEX	SEA	248.1	4.35	4.84	1.43	37.5%	12.7%	8.5%	0.65	2.18
Paxton	SEA	TEX	158.2	3.86	4.05	1.39	50.0%	20.1%	7.1%	0.85	1.54

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. HOU) – There’s a sizeable gap between Kluber and the rest of the pitchers available on today’s slate, as the Cleveland right-hander has the track record, the recent performance and the massive upside to warrant his All-In status, while the pitchers in the Raise cohort are only elevated due to the lack of available options and a few friendly opponents. Kluber struck out a season-high 11 batters against the Twins in his last start, and he’s piled up seven or more Ks in nine of his last ten turns (all 10 of which qualified as quality starts), a stretch that has seen Kluber go 7-0 with a composite 1.94 ERA and 75:19 K:BB in 69.2 innings of work. Kluber has only faced the Astros once this season, that being back in early May, and Houston tagged Kluber for five runs in just 2.2 innings in what was his shortest outing of the season. Owners will hope that was merely a blip on the radar, but I should note that Kluber was coming off a shutout of the Tigers the last time that he faced the Astros, and that didn’t seem to stop them.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at NYY) – The Jays have applied the brakes on Sanchez’s workload, as the young right-hander has made just four starts since the trade deadline, and he will have an extra day’s rest heading into today’s matchup with the Yankees. He was up-and-down through four August starts, including a pair of games that each included four earned runs allowed (he hadn’t given up more than two earnies in a game since mid-June) offset by a couple of quality turns, but the strikeouts have been lacking to effectively cap his fantasy points during that stretch. He hasn’t punched out more than seven batters in any of his last 13 starts and has recorded just 51 Ks pver his last 77.0 innings, putting the onus on his run prevention as he takes on the suddenly-young Yankees tonight.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ATL) – Gio is drifting through the softer part of the schedule and today’s matchup with Atlanta will mark the third time in his last four starts that Gio has faced the bottom-feeding offenses of the Braves or Phillies. He has a 3.06 ERA with a 17:5 K:BB over his last three starts (17.2 innings), and though he gave up three earned runs over 5.2 innings against the Braves three turns ago (falling one out shy of a quality start), he also struck out eight hitters – his most since June – and has put up at least 17 fantasy points (DraftKings) in each of his last three starts. Expect more of the same today against Atlanta, a team that struggles mightily against southpaws this season (though the deadline acquisition of Matt Kemp certainly helps in that department).

Jason Hammel CHC (at MIL) – The Cubs’ historic defense most comes into play when the man on the mound specializes in balls in play, and though Hammel might not quite fall into the Kyle Hendricks category, Hammel is still a contact-heavy pitcher with a modest K rate of 20.5 percent this season and a 7.9-percent walk rate that is just a shade under league average. Hammel was left out to rot against the Rockies three starts ago, giving up 10 runs (six earned) in the thin air of Coors Field, and in the following start he was pulled after just 2.1 frames against the Dodgers. He bounced back with six frames of one-run ball against the Pirates in his last turn, the ninth time in his last 10 games that Hammel had given up five or fewer hits, as the only exception was the start that was compromised by altitude.

Luke Weaver STL (at PIT) – Weaver is starting to settle into his role in the Cardinals rotation, and his last two turns have been far prettier than his modest price tag ($4700 on DraftKings) might suggest. He’s thrown consecutive quality starts against the A’s and Brewers, piling up 17 strikeouts over 12.0 innings of 3.00-ERA baseball, with eight hits and four walks allowed over that stretch. His K count will likely come down against any non-Brewers lineups, but the former first rounder struck out 10.0 batters per nine innings across two levels of the minor leagues this season before receiving the call to the show, so strikeouts should be on the menu for tonight’s start.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Perez	0.360	5.36	0.305	4.12	0.250	0.730	0.298	4.67	0.272	0.00	13.4%
Gonzalez	0.269	3.43	0.321	4.11	0.237	0.648	0.319	3.42	0.254	96.67	22.3%
Weaver			0.263	2.57	0.258	0.723	0.327	4.15	0.256	92.50	29.2%
Vogelsong	0.378	6.59	0.296	2.65	0.260	0.760	0.288	4.57	0.253	63.12	17.9%
Sanchez	0.331	3.67	0.232	2.39	0.251	0.736	0.265	3.81	0.226	0.00	18.6%
Cessa	0.306	3.94	0.321	4.35	0.258	0.780	0.204	5.98	0.221	51.82	15.2%
Gallardo	0.344	4.98	0.321	3.48	0.246	0.721	0.303	4.45	0.27	95.33	15.1%
Odorizzi	0.263	2.65	0.334	4.30	0.261	0.773	0.275	3.85	0.234	100.04	21.7%
Peacock					0.256	0.743	0.219	5.14	0.205	31.17	20.0%
Kluber	0.304	3.50	0.249	3.12	0.249	0.745	0.285	3.06	0.222	101.24	26.9%
Montero			0.223	3.46	0.250	0.713	0.327	3.02	0.235	42.50	23.8%
Finnegan	0.288	2.32	0.331	4.61	0.248	0.738	0.246	5.14	0.225	70.17	20.2%
Morgan	0.293	3.57	0.377	5.91	0.271	0.734	0.303	5.17	0.285	0.00	16.3%
Urena	0.361	6.43	0.318	4.39	0.242	0.686	0.303	4.67	0.277	0.00	12.8%
Hammel	0.315	3.29	0.289	3.60	0.250	0.711	0.270	3.94	0.23	88.19	22.6%
Peralta	0.381	4.98	0.367	5.21	0.250	0.743	0.332	4.97	0.305	0.00	14.3%
Boyd	0.370	6.82	0.350	5.07	0.253	0.695	0.289	5.49	0.269	0.00	18.8%
Gonzalez	0.336	3.86	0.325	5.23	0.268	0.748	0.297	4.57	0.264	90.40	17.7%
Gee	0.375	5.27	0.326	4.34	0.248	0.714	0.328	4.77	0.295	0.00	17.0%
Santana	0.312	3.87	0.304	3.60	0.262	0.717	0.290	3.94	0.252	98.38	18.5%
Samardzija	0.348	5.51	0.294	3.70	0.272	0.786	0.292	4.20	0.259	102.20	18.1%
Anderson	0.253	1.17	0.319	4.21	0.265	0.719	0.303	3.57	0.251	93.67	22.3%
Nolasco	0.314	4.08	0.361	6.40	0.249	0.702	0.322	4.22	0.283	0.00	18.0%
Detwiler	0.295	2.70	0.424	8.13	0.246	0.700	0.343	5.52	0.31	0.00	14.8%
Miller	0.346	4.26	0.283	3.83	0.252	0.747	0.298	3.99	0.253	94.75	18.6%
Stripling	0.265	2.18	0.344	6.15	0.263	0.735	0.290	3.81	0.254	78.00	16.3%
Buchholz	0.316	4.57	0.307	3.89	0.237	0.681	0.299	3.97	0.256	70.30	19.1%
Clemens	0.313	2.33	0.418	6.84	0.274	0.775	0.290	6.17	0.273	0.00	16.8%
Perez	0.242	2.08	0.341	4.95	0.257	0.732	0.300	4.16	0.271	92.26	12.7%
Paxton	0.380	4.71	0.294	3.67	0.262	0.747	0.324	3.58	0.27	92.32	20.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. BAL) – Odorizzi is enjoying his best run of the season, notching quality starts in even of his last eight turns after failing to reach the innings requirements in 12 of his first 19 starts this season, as a lack of efficiency with his pitch counts doomed the right-hander to short outings for the entire first half. He has put the exclamation point on his recent stretch with back-to-back quality starts against the hard-hitting Red Sox, giving up just four runs over 13.0 innings against Boston with a modest 11:5 K:BB and 10 hits given up, including one homer. Baltimore is a formidable opponent, but that’s nothing new for Odorizzi, who has faced top offenses in four of his last five starts. His K counts have stayed in the 4-7 range in each game since June, but his reluctance to chase strikeouts is a big part of the reason why Odorizzi has been going deeper into ballgames.

Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. NYM) – The short right-hander has found his strikeout groove recently, whiffing 29 batters across his last three starts covering 20 innings pitched, piling on eight or more strikeouts in each game after exceeding seven Ks in just two of his first 24 starts. He has a powerful delivery that might be contributing to the deception on his changeup, as Finnegan has upped the ante on el cambio in the last three games, doubling his usage rate on the off-speed and using the pitch as a two-strike weapon to get Ks, after spending much of the summer with the pitch being a crutch to get to two strikes rather than finish batters.

Ervin Santana MIN (vs. KC) – … and his rollercoaster ride through 2016 continues. Santana gave up 11 hits and two walks in just 5.0 frames against the WHite Sox in his last start, yet somehow he escaped with only two runs allowed. He wasn’t so lucky in the start prior, giving up six runs to the Blue Jays, but prior to that he was on a six-game tear of quality starts that included a 10-strikeout game, but his opponents played a big role in the solid streak as Santana faced lowly offenses such as the Royals, Rays, White Sox and Braves (twice). He gets another shot at the Royals tonight, the team that was the victim of his 10-K performance – which was a season-high by a two-strikeout margin for a pitcher who has only had more than a half-dozen Ks in three of his 25 starts this season. The upside is low and the floor has a trap door that leads to a negative score, but Santana might be a relatively-safe option given his blend of a weak opponent and strong second-half performance.

Matt Boyd DET (at CHW) – Boyd was hanging out in the Fold section over his first several starts, as the right-hander was knocked around for a 6.44 ERA through his first six games this season, but he came on strong during the second half of August. Over his last four turns – games which include the Red Sox and Rangers – Boyd has posted a 2.35 ERA and notched three quality starts during that span. He has just 17 strikeouts across 23 innings during the good stretch and his upside is severely limited by both his mundane K rate and his seeming inability to go deep into ballgames, as Boyd has only pitched into the seventh inning in two out of his 16 starts this season. Similar to Santana, Boyd would typically be an afterthought when compiling DFS lineups but might have appeal on today’s weak slate of arms and considering his recent run of performance.

James Paxton SEA (vs. TEX) – The southpaw started the month of August with a pair of eight-inning starts back-to-back against the Red Sox and Angels, giving up just one earned run across the 16.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against just nine hits and one walk. He then went on the DL, and in two starts since his return Paxton has gone just 5.0 frames in each turn while giving up a combined seven runs over the 10.0 innings versus the White Sox and Rangers. He has only struck out more than six hitter once in his last nine starts over the past two months, combining for a modest total of 41 Ks over 57 innings during that stretch, so he will likely need to rediscover his pre-DL run prevention in order to carry much weight today in DFS.

Ryan Vogelsong PIT (vs. STL)

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. ARI)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (vs. DET)

Jeff Samardzija SF (at COL)

Miguel Montero NYM (at CIN)

Clay Buchholz BOS (at SD)

Martin Perez TEX (at SEA)

Dillon Gee KC (at MIN)

Luis Cessa NYY (vs. TOR)

Jose Urena MIA (vs. PHI)

Williams Perez ATL (at WAS)

Ricky Nolasco LAA (at OAK)