Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 18th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 222.1 | 4.25 | 4.76 | 1.42 | 52.6% | 17.1% | 10.1% | 1.01 | 1.24 |
| Hellickson | PHI | MIA | 189.2 | 4.51 | 3.99 | 1.32 | 20.3% | 6.7% | 1.47 | 1.13 | |
| Nolasco | MIN | DET | 81.2 | 5.73 | 3.90 | 1.41 | 16.7% | 20.3% | 6.2% | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| Verlander | DET | MIN | 183 | 3.74 | 3.91 | 1.13 | 35.0% | 22.0% | 6.6% | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Wright | BOS | KCR | 118.1 | 3.42 | 4.43 | 1.23 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 1.06 | 1.04 | |
| Kennedy | KCR | BOS | 212.2 | 4.06 | 3.71 | 1.26 | 47.6% | 24.1% | 7.6% | 1.57 | 0.91 |
| Perez | TEX | OAK | 126 | 4.00 | 4.48 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 0.43 | 2.52 |
| Hill | OAK | TEX | 72.2 | 2.23 | 3.05 | 0.98 | 30.6% | 8.6% | 0.50 | 1.40 | |
| Teheran | ATL | PIT | 249 | 3.87 | 4.21 | 1.28 | 70.0% | 20.6% | 8.6% | 1.16 | 1.08 |
| Liriano | PIT | ATL | 226.1 | 3.66 | 3.52 | 1.26 | 12.5% | 26.3% | 9.8% | 0.91 | 1.86 |
| Walker | SEA | BAL | 207.1 | 4.21 | 3.58 | 1.18 | 22.6% | 5.3% | 1.26 | 1.09 | |
| Tillman | BAL | SEA | 218.1 | 4.49 | 4.51 | 1.34 | 42.9% | 18.1% | 8.9% | 0.87 | 1.17 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 214 | 3.45 | 3.92 | 1.17 | 36.8% | 21.1% | 6.2% | 1.01 | 0.90 |
| Dickey | TOR | TBR | 262.1 | 3.98 | 4.71 | 1.22 | 47.6% | 14.7% | 7.1% | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Tomlin | CLE | CIN | 101 | 3.30 | 3.71 | 0.92 | 23.1% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 1.78 | 0.87 |
| Finnegan | CIN | CLE | 91 | 3.96 | 4.44 | 1.30 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 1.58 | 1.48 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 217.2 | 3.43 | 3.83 | 1.36 | 46.7% | 21.8% | 8.7% | 0.41 | 1.82 |
| Colon | NYM | WAS | 238 | 4.05 | 3.94 | 1.22 | 42.1% | 17.4% | 2.8% | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| Lackey | CHC | MIL | 266.1 | 2.91 | 3.79 | 1.17 | 57.9% | 20.5% | 5.8% | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| Nelson | MIL | CHC | 228.2 | 3.98 | 4.14 | 1.26 | 19.6% | 8.7% | 1.02 | 1.65 | |
| Fister | HOU | CWS | 145.2 | 4.20 | 4.58 | 1.35 | 58.3% | 13.6% | 6.1% | 1.24 | 1.42 |
| Latos | CWS | HOU | 156 | 4.56 | 4.26 | 1.31 | 66.7% | 18.0% | 7.1% | 0.98 | 1.27 |
| Rusin | COL | STL | 157.2 | 5.25 | 4.21 | 1.59 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 1.08 | 2.12 | |
| Wainwright | STL | COL | 73 | 4.81 | 4.39 | 1.38 | 84.2% | 14.7% | 5.4% | 0.62 | 1.50 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | ARI | 197 | 4.34 | 3.87 | 1.43 | 50.0% | 18.9% | 6.9% | 0.78 | 1.94 |
| Miller | ARI | NYY | 240.1 | 3.60 | 4.43 | 1.32 | 21.1% | 18.9% | 9.4% | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| Stripling | LAD | LAA | 38 | 4.26 | 4.35 | 1.32 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 0.47 | 1.72 | |
| Tropeano | LAA | LAD | 74.1 | 3.75 | 4.01 | 1.48 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 1.09 | 0.76 | |
| Cueto | SFG | SDP | 269.2 | 3.34 | 3.70 | 1.14 | 76.2% | 20.9% | 5.1% | 0.77 | 1.27 |
| Pomeranz | SDP | SFG | 126 | 3.07 | 3.61 | 1.15 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 9.7% | 0.71 | 1.16 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
It’s a day bereft of all-in candidates. David Price is worthy of this tier when he’s on his game, and though his last start was encouraging, it will take more than a single outing to vault him a rung up the ladder. Johnny Cueto has the best combination of talent and context, but he has also been too erratic to justify an all-in bet. All of the pitchers on board carry some risk today, so gamers will need to roll the dice and take their chances. Let’s roll up our sleeves and dive in.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Johnny Cueto SF (at SD) – With a sub-3.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a career-best 1.6 BB/9, Cueto’s stat-line gives the appearance of stability, but underneath the surface brews a tempest of volatility. Cueto has been unpredictable on a start-by-start basis, one turn striking out 11 batters against one walk in a nine-inning shutout, the next start (literally) coughing up a half-dozen runs over 5.0 frames. He’s had two of the six-run implosions, has struck out four or fewer batters three times yet punched out eight or more hitters five times. Nobody said it was easy, but in this case, it might just be a bit easier due to his context. Cueto’s opponent in the 11-K start of dominance? Why, the Padres, of course.
David Price BOS (at KC) – Price went to work addressing some mechanical aspects of his delivery prior to his last start, raising his leg lift and increasing momentum to find a more fluid delivery and a more consistent release point, and the early returns suggest that he has identified and started correcting the problem. In his first start since addressing his mechanics, Price allowed one run to the Astros over 6.2 innings with a dozen strikeouts and just one walk. His velocity, which had been down all season, also spiked in his last start, encouraging the notion that he has fixed the issues with mechanical timing and sequencing, at least temporarily.
Rich Hill OAK (vs. TEX) – Hill has been even better than Billy Beane could have imagined when he gave the veteran $6 million for a one-year contract, and one can imagine that the southpaw will be wearing a different uniform come July as he gets flipped for the next flavor of the month in the bus leagues. The walk rate is high but the hit rate is low, and his penchant for the double-digit strikeout game raises the bar of intrigue. The Rangers have a negligible platoon split, hitting left- and right-handers equally, though the offensive struggles on the road could potentially come into play.
Julio Teheran ATL (at PIT) – Teheran was a complete miss for his first couple starts of the season, but he has been a big hit for a month now. In his last five starts, Teheran has compiled a 1.44 ERA, 30:9 K:BB ratio and .561 opponents OPS in 31.1 innings. He has allowed just five earned runs combined over the five starts, and the pitcher who allowed eight walks and four home runs in his first 17.1 innings has surrendered just nine walks and one homer in the 31.1 frames since. He even blanked the Cubs, in Chicago, over 7.0 frames with nine strikeouts and just three base runners allowed. The run might be fleeting, so catch him for DFS rosters while we still can.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koehler | 0.342 | 4.51 | 0.313 | 3.98 | 0.244 | 0.678 | 0.290 | 4.53 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 17.1% |
| Hellickson | 0.345 | 4.29 | 0.330 | 4.66 | 0.260 | 0.697 | 0.292 | 4.46 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 20.3% |
| Nolasco | 0.336 | 5.79 | 0.340 | 5.68 | 0.267 | 0.737 | 0.333 | 3.78 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Verlander | 0.269 | 2.91 | 0.310 | 4.66 | 0.241 | 0.696 | 0.271 | 3.71 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 22.0% |
| Wright | 0.286 | 3.42 | 0.304 | 3.43 | 0.264 | 0.728 | 0.255 | 4.32 | 0.225 | 0.01 | 18.7% |
| Kennedy | 0.337 | 4.09 | 0.332 | 4.04 | 0.271 | 0.760 | 0.289 | 4.48 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 24.1% |
| Perez | 0.246 | 1.95 | 0.329 | 4.58 | 0.252 | 0.707 | 0.298 | 3.81 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 14.2% |
| Hill | 0.209 | 2.16 | 0.256 | 2.25 | 0.258 | 0.738 | 0.255 | 2.73 | 0.178 | 0.03 | 30.6% |
| Teheran | 0.382 | 5.40 | 0.251 | 2.65 | 0.264 | 0.736 | 0.282 | 4.28 | 0.242 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Liriano | 0.268 | 2.92 | 0.301 | 3.86 | 0.225 | 0.611 | 0.294 | 3.55 | 0.226 | 0.01 | 26.3% |
| Walker | 0.295 | 3.85 | 0.319 | 4.66 | 0.259 | 0.766 | 0.291 | 3.89 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Tillman | 0.311 | 3.26 | 0.331 | 5.69 | 0.242 | 0.721 | 0.295 | 4.07 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
| Odorizzi | 0.264 | 2.68 | 0.339 | 4.32 | 0.260 | 0.777 | 0.279 | 3.65 | 0.237 | 0.01 | 21.1% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 3.75 | 0.318 | 4.18 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.264 | 4.40 | 0.243 | 0.00 | 14.7% |
| Tomlin | 0.221 | 1.85 | 0.345 | 4.64 | 0.245 | 0.699 | 0.219 | 4.55 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 20.3% |
| Finnegan | 0.341 | 4.03 | 0.311 | 3.93 | 0.261 | 0.719 | 0.233 | 5.25 | 0.216 | 0.01 | 19.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.277 | 3.06 | 0.308 | 3.54 | 0.242 | 0.718 | 0.325 | 3.03 | 0.255 | 0.01 | 21.8% |
| Colon | 0.312 | 3.77 | 0.318 | 4.37 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.307 | 3.77 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 17.4% |
| Lackey | 0.322 | 2.84 | 0.267 | 2.95 | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.290 | 3.49 | 0.245 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Nelson | 0.360 | 5.42 | 0.265 | 2.96 | 0.250 | 0.741 | 0.274 | 4.24 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 19.6% |
| Fister | 0.331 | 4.41 | 0.338 | 3.95 | 0.252 | 0.705 | 0.293 | 4.66 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 13.6% |
| Latos | 0.340 | 5.27 | 0.297 | 3.95 | 0.246 | 0.745 | 0.295 | 3.95 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 18.0% |
| Rusin | 0.362 | 5.54 | 0.364 | 4.99 | 0.232 | 0.671 | 0.344 | 4.36 | 0.307 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Wainwright | 0.322 | 5.08 | 0.339 | 4.63 | 0.269 | 0.773 | 0.324 | 3.47 | 0.285 | 0.01 | 14.7% |
| Eovaldi | 0.356 | 4.86 | 0.292 | 3.93 | 0.266 | 0.742 | 0.335 | 3.57 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 18.9% |
| Miller | 0.330 | 3.64 | 0.278 | 3.56 | 0.246 | 0.733 | 0.284 | 3.94 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 18.9% |
| Stripling | 0.261 | 1.89 | 0.341 | 6.63 | 0.251 | 0.710 | 0.284 | 3.36 | 0.236 | 0.03 | 18.4% |
| Tropeano | 0.343 | 2.52 | 0.336 | 5.14 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.336 | 3.86 | 0.269 | 0.02 | 23.5% |
| Cueto | 0.273 | 2.69 | 0.310 | 3.92 | 0.241 | 0.679 | 0.293 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 20.9% |
| Pomeranz | 0.212 | 2.20 | 0.298 | 3.49 | 0.271 | 0.719 | 0.265 | 3.30 | 0.205 | 0.00 | 25.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
John Lackey CHC (at MIL) – Lackey has the veil as a consistent pitcher whose high floor of performance makes up for the lack of ceiling, making him the perfect complement for a high-K starter on two-pitcher sites like DraftKings. Thing is, he’s been violating both sides of that contract this season, with a pair of 11-K starts out of his seven turns this season, and two other ballgames in which he gave up six earned runs apiece. In another start, he only struck out two batters while allowing two earned runs over 8.0 innings. Milwaukee has a great park for home runs, and the return of Ryan Braun to the lineup combined with the heating up of a streaky Chris Carter could be explosive.
Taijuan Walker SEA (at BAL) – Walker has an incredible 38:6 K:BB ratio in 37.2 innings, playing both sides of the coin with respect to dominating the strike zone. He gave up four runs in 5.2 innings in his last start, which was significant because it was the first time all season that he had allowed more than two earned runs in a ballgame. He also walked three batters in the contest, which means something for a guy who had walked just three others in the previous 32.0 innings combined. Walker gets knocked down the list due to his powerful opponent and the hitter-friendly confines of Camden Yards, as he’s a great pitcher with poor context, especially considering that right-handed cogs such as Manny Machado and Adam Jones have reverse platoon splits for their careers, with better numbers against right-handed/same-side pitchers.
Drew Pomeranz SD (vs. SF) – Pomeranz has been a stealth ninja of pitching excellence so far this season. While few have been looking, Pomeranz has tossed 40.0 innings of 1.80 ERA baseball, giving up the walks but not the hits while striking out 51 batters (11.5 K/9) on the season. He has done this all of this with a fastball that averages less than 92 mph on the radar gun. It’s the curve that dominates the lefty’s repertoire, having thrown more hammers than fastballs this season and using the pitch to finish off 30 of his strikeouts. He hasn’t allowed a home run since the calendar flipped to May and his ERA for the month is just 0.50, on the heels of a cartoon-like .179 BABiP.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. ATL) – Facing the Braves is supposed to be a cakewalk, especially for a a southpaw who neutralizes the only weapon (Freddie Freeman) that Atlanta has on board, but Liriano can be his own worst enemy. He is coming off of an eight-run disaster at the hands of the Cubs, a game that sent Liriano to the showers before he could finish the fifth inning. He struck out 10 batters in his previous start, but before that he had gone four games without topping a half-dozen. The question is which version of Liriano will show tonight? Will it be the one that has cracked at least 22 points in DraftKings three different times this season, or the one that has failed to clear five points in three of his starts this season.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at NYM) – Gonzalez has been his usual stingy self in terms of hits and home runs allowed this season, but what is shocking is how he has maintained a 1.93 ERA through fewer walks (BB/9 rate lower by 0.9) and fewer strikeouts tan any other season of his career. Regression will come at some point, and the Mets have the offensive firepower to make that scenario a reality sooner rather than later.
Justin Verlander DET (vs. MIN) – Just when it seems it’s time to write off Verlander, he suddenly turns it all around. Verlander allowed multiple runs in each of his first six starts, including a pair of blow-up starts that each featured seven earned runs allowed. But Verlander turned a corner and had his two best days of the year, choosing to focus on two consecutive turns that totaled 15.0 innings and just one run allowed, with 17 Ks and four total walks. In a weird bit of ephemera, Verlander has walked exactly two batters in seven of his eight starts; and the one outlier involved three free passes. The bats of the Twins have finally started to heat up, so Verlander will need to tread lightly in this one.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at TOR)
Nathan Eovaldi NYY (at ARI)
Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. MIA)
Martin Perez TEX (at OAK)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. TB)
Adam Wainwright STL (vs. COL) – Yeah, that’s right. Wainwright’s behind Dickey. Waino and the circle of trust are in different area codes.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CHC)
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. BOS)
Ian Kennedy KC (vs. BOS)
Chris Tillman BAL (vs. SEA)
Nick Tropeano LAA (vs. LAD)
Shelby Miller ARI (vs. NYY)
Tom Koehler MIA (at PHI)
Mat Latos CHW (vs. HOU)
Doug Fister HOU (at CHW)
Steven Wright BOS (at KC)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. WAS)
Brandon Finnegan CIN (vs. CLE)
Mike Clevinger CLE (at CIN)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (at LAA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Chris Rusin COL (at STL)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at DET) – There aren’t obvious stacking options today, as the top-end is relatively thin and the resulting in a deep pool of candidates to get lit today. There are more than a dozen legit options to stack against sketch pitchers, and even the top of the deck is full of wild cards who are playing against tough offenses. Today will be a gauntlet, so here’s hoping that we all survive.
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