Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-26 02:17:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Matz	NYM	WAS	77.1	2.56	3.25	1.14		24.4%	5.7%	0.81	1.68
Roark	WAS	NYM	167	3.88	4.01	1.29	52.6%	17.5%	6.8%	1.08	1.74
Nola	PHI	DET	137.2	3.27	3.24	1.07		23.9%	5.4%	1.05	1.76
Sanchez	DET	PHI	204.2	5.28	4.21	1.35	41.2%	20.7%	8.6%	1.67	0.99
Gee	KCR	MIN	70.2	4.58	4.28	1.50	50.0%	16.2%	7.3%	1.15	1.56
Duffey	MIN	KCR	88	3.17	3.81	1.28		21.1%	7.0%	0.72	1.52
Arrieta	CHC	STL	292	1.66	2.85	0.86	50.0%	27.0%	6.2%	0.37	2.40
Martinez	STL	CHC	227.2	3.12	3.62	1.26		23.0%	8.4%	0.71	2.01
Santiago	LAA	TEX	233.1	3.66	4.49	1.25	16.7%	20.4%	9.1%	1.50	0.62
Lewis	TEX	LAA	263.2	4.23	4.36	1.21	11.8%	17.0%	4.9%	1.23	0.78
Kluber	CLE	CWS	281.1	3.61	3.07	1.07	57.1%	26.9%	5.3%	0.86	1.27
Quintana	CWS	CLE	265.1	3.05	3.60	1.21	50.0%	21.0%	5.1%	0.58	1.49
Shields	SDP	SFG	261	3.72	3.81	1.33	42.9%	24.2%	9.4%	1.38	1.35
Peavy	SFG	SDP	152.1	4.84	4.39	1.33	42.1%	17.6%	6.5%	1.18	0.88
De La Rosa	ARI	PIT	232	4.46	4.06	1.30	57.1%	19.7%	7.9%	1.44	1.52
Locke	PIT	ARI	213.1	4.60	4.36	1.45	66.7%	17.1%	8.9%	0.89	1.93
Estrada	TOR	NYY	232.2	3.02	4.45	1.04	27.8%	19.4%	7.9%	1.08	0.67
Nova	NYY	TOR	124.1	4.63	4.30	1.33	25.0%	14.6%	6.7%	1.23	1.88
Bettis	COL	BOS	171	4.21	3.99	1.35		19.0%	7.3%	0.89	1.78
Wright	BOS	COL	126.1	3.42	4.38	1.20		18.8%	8.8%	1.07	1.05
Nicolino	MIA	TBR	103.1	4.09	5.77	1.26		6.8%	7.3%	0.96	1.21
Andriese	TBR	MIA	87	3.62	4.19	1.18		16.7%	6.4%	0.93	1.29
Guerra	MIL	ATL	29	4.34	3.75	1.17		23.5%	7.8%	0.93	0.97
Foltynewicz	ATL	MIL	108.1	5.48	4.19	1.57		19.1%	6.3%	1.83	0.82
Wilson	BAL	HOU	72.2	3.59	4.99	1.27		10.3%	7.0%	0.62	1.51
McHugh	HOU	BAL	251	4.12	3.96	1.33	42.9%	19.5%	6.1%	0.90	1.27
Straily	CIN	LAD	64	3.52	4.58	1.27	14.3%	20.0%	11.3%	0.98	1.04
Kazmir	LAD	CIN	234.2	3.57	4.12	1.24	63.2%	20.5%	8.0%	1.23	1.14
Neal	OAK	SEA
Iwakuma	SEA	OAK	185	3.79	3.65	1.17	60.0%	20.5%	5.0%	1.17	1.46

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at STL) – There has been a lot of discussion recently as to whether Arrieta has overtaken Clayton Kershaw as the best pitcher on the planet, and though I appreciate Arrieta’s skill set, Kershaw really is on a tier by himself. Case in point, whereas Kersh just wrapped up a six-start run of games with double-digit strikeouts, Arrieta has reached that plateau just once in nine starts this season. The 1.29 ERA is the best in the majors, so there’s no doubting his run-squelching skills, but Ks rule the day in DFS and Arrieta can’t touch Kersh in that department. Arrieta will just have to settle for the title of “Second-best pitcher in baseball.”

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at CHW) – The run prevention has been disappointing thus far, with a 4.10 ERA on the season and four different games with four or more earned runs allowed, meanwhile his K count has been strong yet not elite at 58 Ks in 59.1 innings. Kluber hasn’t even topped seven strikeouts in a ballgame since April 23. He has the stuff and the delivery to be a perennial Cy Young contender, but ever since he won the 2014 hardware, Kluber has struggled to keep runs off the scoreboard. How that has happened is still a bit of a mystery, though, as Kluber has allowed virtually the same frequency of hits (7.7 H/9) and homers (0.8 HR/9) as he did last year, with a few extra walks thrown in but nothing alarming. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess, but the upside is too great to ignore.

Steven Matz NYM (at WAS) – In his first start of the season, Matz allowed seven earned runs without escaping the first inning, an outing that will leave a scar on his ERA all season long. Since that disaster, however, Matz has been lights out. In six starts, he is 6-0 with a tiny 1.35 ERA and 42 strikeouts against six walks and 30 hits in 40.0 innings pitched. He has struck out eight or more batters in four of the six starts and hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of them, and he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings in each of the last six starts. With a 43:8 K:BB ratio in his 41.2 innings this year, Matz offers upside in strikeouts as well as run prevention, while his left-handedness at least gives the illusion that he has a slight edge over Bryce Harper.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. CLE) – Coming into the season, Quintana was the quintessential no. 2 starter, with limited upside but with excellent reliability. But the southpaw played out of his mind for the first month of the season, had his ERA down to 1.38 on May 8, and has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this year. The one exception was in his last turn, with Quintana giving up four runs over 6.1 innings against Kansas City; he had five strikeouts in the game, the fourth consecutive start that he had exactly 5 Ks, and he has pitched 6.0 or more innings in his last eight consecutive starts. He has the type of low-strikeout, low-hit mix that strikes fear into the hearts of gamers that roster him, as the high-contact approach leaves him vulnerable to the vagaries of balls in play, and the demon of regression is likely lurking nearby.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Matz	0.323	2.55	0.259	2.56	0.266	0.774	0.300	3.10	0.238	0.02	24.4%
Roark	0.330	3.50	0.305	4.23	0.244	0.717	0.292	4.22	0.258	0.00	17.5%
Nola	0.299	3.83	0.257	2.88	0.269	0.742	0.272	3.42	0.225	0.01	23.9%
Sanchez	0.311	4.57	0.370	6.07	0.243	0.676	0.284	4.91	0.253	0.00	20.7%
Gee	0.410	5.35	0.266	3.82	0.240	0.692	0.323	4.42	0.287	0.01	16.2%
Duffey	0.321	2.45	0.294	3.78	0.264	0.728	0.311	3.33	0.254	0.01	21.1%
Arrieta	0.215	1.42	0.225	1.87	0.266	0.760	0.238	2.38	0.177	0.01	27.0%
Martinez	0.334	3.93	0.261	2.37	0.249	0.740	0.302	3.42	0.24	0.01	23.0%
Santiago	0.271	2.51	0.329	4.07	0.258	0.733	0.249	4.86	0.225	0.00	20.4%
Lewis	0.324	4.32	0.303	4.14	0.253	0.714	0.283	4.24	0.257	0.00	17.0%
Kluber	0.325	4.18	0.239	3.07	0.251	0.701	0.295	2.99	0.228	0.01	26.9%
Quintana	0.263	3.05	0.312	3.05	0.264	0.726	0.320	2.94	0.26	0.01	21.0%
Shields	0.367	4.01	0.299	3.46	0.263	0.737	0.301	4.37	0.248	0.01	24.2%
Peavy	0.333	4.07	0.342	5.56	0.239	0.674	0.300	4.21	0.267	0.01	17.6%
De La Rosa	0.377	6.25	0.270	2.90	0.266	0.739	0.278	4.63	0.248	0.00	19.7%
Locke	0.333	5.57	0.327	4.29	0.265	0.759	0.310	4.18	0.269	0.00	17.1%
Estrada	0.275	3.02	0.266	3.02	0.248	0.736	0.219	4.15	0.198	0.00	19.4%
Nova	0.365	4.98	0.306	4.31	0.259	0.776	0.284	4.73	0.263	0.01	14.6%
Bettis	0.312	4.21	0.333	4.21	0.271	0.762	0.306	3.80	0.26	0.01	19.0%
Wright	0.287	3.54	0.297	3.33	0.270	0.772	0.251	4.27	0.223	0.01	18.8%
Nicolino	0.279	3.27	0.330	4.32	0.260	0.766	0.251	4.93	0.254	0.00	6.8%
Andriese	0.305	4.15	0.274	3.19	0.259	0.698	0.268	3.98	0.24	0.01	16.7%
Guerra			0.278	3.79	0.255	0.677	0.289	3.49	0.236	0.03	23.5%
Foltynewicz	0.415	5.92	0.349	5.13	0.255	0.713	0.344	5.02	0.305	0.00	19.1%
Wilson	0.307	3.51	0.305	3.69	0.246	0.745	0.274	4.09	0.256	0.01	10.3%
McHugh	0.305	4.16	0.335	4.09	0.258	0.761	0.321	3.64	0.271	0.00	19.5%
Straily	0.295	3.51	0.305	3.52	0.245	0.723	0.243	4.48	0.209	0.01	20.0%
Kazmir	0.332	4.68	0.299	3.19	0.251	0.722	0.270	4.35	0.235	0.01	20.5%
Neal					0.243	0.722
Iwakuma	0.309	3.50	0.301	4.05	0.249	0.700	0.288	3.81	0.25	0.01	20.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Nola PHI (at DET) – Nola has earned raise consideration on a start-by-start basis, but the context of facing the Tigers in Detroit (with a designated hitter) knocks Nola from the running in this start. He struck out just 7.5 batters per nine innings in the minors, a modest total that left one wondering if he would crack 6.0 K/9 in the majors, but Nola has flipped the script hy posting higher K rates at the highest level than he ever did in the bush leagues. His current K rate of 9.6 K/9 would be a career high at any level over a full season, and the extremely low walk rate that defined his value in the minor leagues has come with him as the strikeout rate has inflated, and for the season he has 64 strikeouts against 11 walks (three of which were intentional) in 60.0 innings, so if looking at just the unintentional free passes then he has struck out an even 8.0 batters for each walk this season.

James Shields SD (at SF) – His velocity is down nearly a full tick this season, and all three of his fastball variations have been getting hit hard this season. The biggest culprit behind Shields’ bloated ERA is the cutter, which has been responsible for three of the six homers that Shields has allowed this season. The secondaries have been excellent, but between the four-seam, sinker and cutter, the three hardest offerings have been responsible for 16 of the 20 extra-base hits that he has allowed in 2016. Throw in the anemic offense that supports Shields, thus denting his odds of getting points for a win, and you are left with a low-ceiling option whose once-greatest asset – consistency – has been missing for the past two years.

Carlos Martinez STL (vs. CHC) – Facing the Cubs is the first element that knocks CarMart down the value ladder, but the biggest knock against the right-hander is of his own doing. He has had two starts since skipping a turn due to health-related issues, and in each of those starts he has surrendered four runs over 5.0 innings, with three walks and as many or fewer strikeouts in each game (just five Ks total in the two outings). He hasn’t thrown more than 87 pitches in a game in the month of May, a month that has seen four consecutive losses following a 4-0 April for Martinez, and his May ERA of 5.85 is supported by 22 hits, nine walks and fifteen strikeouts over 20.0 innings in four starts this month.

Marco Estrada TOR (at NYY) – Last season, Estrada led the American League with a hit rate of 6.7 H/9. That rate was likely to regress closer to league average in 2016, but instead he has lowered the hit rate even further, to just 6.1 H/9. Perhaps more astonishing has been the relative lack of home runs allowed – Estrada has never had a season with less than 1.1 HR/9 or a home run rate of less than 2.9 percent, but this season those numbers are 0.7 HR/9 and 1.9 percent, respectively. The two-year run of hit suppression and low ERA’s that resulted add a dose of confidence that he can keep it going, but his spotty track record and the magnets of regression conspire to build a wall of pessimism around his future performance.

Rubby de la Rosa ARI (at PIT) – Rubby DLR was not much of a strikeout hound during his first couple years in the league, topping out at an 18.5-percent strikeout frequency, but this season he has taken off with a 24.7-percent K rate. The right-hander is striking out more than a batter per inning, though his numbers are bolstered by a stretch in the bullpen and a 10-strikeout game against the Cardinals, as his other starts have been rather pedestrian in the strikeout department. He did pitch well against the Rockies in Colorado, a performance that will earn him an extended leash in the rotation, and he also limited these Pirates to one run over 6.0 innings (with six strikeouts against four baserunners) when he faced them on April 23.

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. CIN)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. OAK)

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. NYM)

Colby Lewis TEX (vs. LAA)

Matt Andriese TB (vs. MIA) – The 2.11 ERA is a mirage supported by an ultra-low hit rate of 4.6 H/9 through his first three starts. Andriese has just 11 strikeouts and five walks in 21.1 innings this season, numbers that jive with his contact-heavy approach in the minors but which paint a gloomy picture in terms of expected future performance. The stuff is average at best, including a fastball that sits 91-94 mph, but his five-pitch mix is intended to keep batters off-balance to induce weak contact rather than coax empty swings.

Junior Guerra MIL (at ATL) – Guerra kicks off a set of stack-worthy pitchers who happen to be facing the weakest offenses that the National League has to offer. Guerra is the biggest wild card of them all, with just four career big league starts under his belt, but the fact that one of his turns this season spiked 11 strikeouts creates the possibility of upside that Peavy and Sanchez each hasn’t been able to reach in years. He has pitched at least 6.0 innings in each game, though he has only earned the quality start in two of the four, and perhaps most impressive is that he has been so efficient with his pitches, getting through his 6.0 frames in 72 pitches in one game and just 83 pitches in another.

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. PHI)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. SD)

Dan Straily CIN (at LAD)

Hector Santiago LAA (at TEX)

Ivan Nova NYY (vs. TOR)

Steven Wright BOS (vs. COL)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at TB)

Dillon Gee KC (at MIN)

Tyler Wilson BAL (at HOU)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. MIL)