Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 3rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | NYY | 240.1 | 4.16 | 3.56 | 1.27 | 43.75% | 19.4% | 6.1% | 0.86 | 60.1% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | WAS | 204.2 | 4.71 | 3.61 | 1.45 | 28.13% | 28.4% | 9.7% | 1.23 | 45.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | BOS | 209.2 | 4.16 | 4.06 | 1.38 | 50.00% | 21.5% | 7.1% | 1.46 | 44.1% |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | CIN | 134.1 | 3.08 | 3.71 | 1.15 | 50.00% | 20.1% | 5.3% | 1.00 | 53.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | DET | 181.2 | 3.07 | 3.4 | 1.08 | 44.00% | 25.3% | 5.6% | 1.29 | 47.8% |
| Adam Conley | MIA | TBR | 153 | 4.24 | 4.68 | 1.41 | 32.00% | 20.8% | 10.7% | 0.94 | 37.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | ATL | 179.2 | 3.01 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 54.17% | 25.6% | 6.4% | 0.95 | 45.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CHC | 227.2 | 3.64 | 4.06 | 1.17 | 42.42% | 20.8% | 5.6% | 1.30 | 40.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | MIN | 210 | 3.9 | 4.55 | 1.27 | 38.71% | 14.1% | 5.9% | 1.07 | 51.0% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | HOU | 51.2 | 4.88 | 5.3 | 1.43 | 11.4% | 8.8% | 1.74 | 49.7% | |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | KCR | 128 | 5.06 | 5.36 | 1.73 | 18.18% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 51.3% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | STL | 181.2 | 4.01 | 4.61 | 1.32 | 16.67% | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.44 | 36.7% |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | SDP | 32 | 2.81 | 4.5 | 1 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 0.84 | 48.5% | |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | LAD | 234.2 | 4.14 | 4.03 | 1.22 | 46.88% | 21.0% | 6.6% | 1.15 | 45.5% |
| Ricky Nolasco | LAA | SEA | 226 | 4.38 | 4.37 | 1.24 | 37.50% | 17.7% | 5.3% | 1.31 | 42.4% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | TOR | 208.2 | 3.97 | 4.41 | 1.32 | 40.00% | 19.2% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 49.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | ARI | 210.2 | 4.1 | 4.01 | 1.31 | 40.63% | 21.9% | 7.8% | 0.94 | 47.2% |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | BAL | 192.1 | 3.42 | 3.73 | 1.19 | 46.67% | 26.8% | 9.1% | 1.26 | 44.8% |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | PIT | 9.2 | 11.17 | 5.32 | 2.59 | 17.0% | 13.2% | 2.79 | 36.1% | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | CLE | 123 | 4.39 | 4.53 | 1.33 | 27.78% | 19.3% | 8.0% | 1.46 | 38.4% |
| Blake Snell | TBR | MIA | 115.1 | 3.51 | 4.82 | 1.59 | 26.32% | 22.4% | 13.4% | 0.62 | 37.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | NYM | 220.2 | 3.71 | 4.34 | 1.22 | 48.48% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 1.18 | 42.9% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | PHI | 226.1 | 3.3 | 3.85 | 1.11 | 48.39% | 24.4% | 9.2% | 0.87 | 51.3% |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | OAK | 211.2 | 4.38 | 4.97 | 1.33 | 36.36% | 18.4% | 9.6% | 1.49 | 34.4% |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | TEX | 45.1 | 4.37 | 3.42 | 1.35 | 50.00% | 25.4% | 8.1% | 0.79 | 54.0% |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | CHW | 117.1 | 5.37 | 4.23 | 1.47 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.30 | 44.7% | |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL | 223.2 | 4.79 | 4.22 | 1.45 | 33.33% | 19.4% | 6.8% | 1.01 | 44.2% |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | COL | 206.2 | 5.01 | 5.35 | 1.41 | 35.48% | 13.3% | 6.5% | 2.05 | 30.8% |
| Julio Urias | LAD | SFG | 82.2 | 3.27 | 4 | 1.45 | 20.00% | 24.5% | 9.8% | 0.54 | 42.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | LAA | 225 | 4.12 | 4.57 | 1.32 | 39.39% | 16.9% | 6.1% | 1.36 | 41.1% |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at ATL, $10400) – It was a close call for the top spot, but in the end, deGrom’s recent strikeout binge and his relatively soft opponent vault him to the top of the list. He now leads the NL with 44 strikeouts on the young season, thanks to a three-game run that has seen him whiff 35 batters in his last 19.2 innings. He’s given up two or three runs in each of his last four starts, but deGrom spun a gem against these Braves in his first start of the year, allowing just two hits and one walk over 6.0 scoreless innings. DeGrom is typically a master of the strike zone, and outside of an odd six-walk performance against the Nats two starts ago, the right-hander has given away just five free passes in his other four starts covering 26.0 innings. The pitch count has grown with each successive start, topping out at 112 throws the last time out.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at DET, $10700) – The overall numbers are ace-worthy, with a 2.04 ERA through five starts, a 34:7 K:BB and just 21 hits allowed in 35.1 innings. He has pitched at least 6.2 frames in each of his last four starts, and the six hits that he gave up over 8.0 innings of his last start was the first time all year that he had given up more than four hits in a game. Like deGrom, Carrasco is typically strong with the strike zone but did have a single-game lapse, walking five Tigers three starts ago, but the righty has given away just two walks over 28.2 innings outside of that ballgame. The home runs have been the only real problem, with Carrasco serving up five homers already this season, and the return of Miguel Cabrera to the Tigers lineup (he hit a homer in his first game back) will increase the threat level of a ball leaving the yard today. Carrasco stymied the Tigers last season, posting a 0.51 ERA in four starts covering 17.2 innings with a 0.736 WHIP, the right-hander’s best numbers against any opponent that he faced more than once last season.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. ARI, $8800) – Gio is pitching like a man on a mission, but aside from the ERA – which is an unsustainable 1.62 over his first five starts of the year – his peripherals are right in line with what he posted during his first three years in Washington (as opposed to the Rocky Horror Picture Show of the past two seasons). Gio is putting up a very low hit rate (7.3 H/9) to go with a league-average walk rate (3.0 BB/9) and less than a homer allowed per nine. The strikeouts are actually a bti down, as Gonzalez was a K-per-inning guy at his peak but is currently rolling along with a modest 7.0 K/9. I could see the K-rate come up while the ERA comes down, a seemingly contradictory set of circumstances that could come naturally as he builds his sample size. Expect Gio to receive plenty of run support tonight from the formidable offense of the Nats, and his odds of notching another win – taking his record to 4-0 – are buffered by the fact that he has thrown at least 103 pitches while going at least 6.1 innings with two or fewer earned runs allowed for four consecutive starts.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. PHI, $10900) – His last few starts have been uncharacteristically difficult, and the performances have been getting uglier over time, with the latest blowup accounting for five runs on ten hits in the 4.1 frames before he was sent to the showers. He’s given up five runs in each of his last two turns and has coughed up at least three runs in each of his last four starts. The K-rate is up from last season and the walk rate is down, but he has already given up six home runs in 29.0 innings and he continues to uncork wild pitches at a league-leading rate, with five wild pitches already this season. He should theoretically have an easier time keeping the Phillies at bay than he did the Red Sox or Reds, but keep expectations in check as the odds of a profit are relatively low for a Raise candidate.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | Team | Opp | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | SIERA | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | NYY | 0.314 | 4.71 | 0.304 | 3.6 | 0.263 | 3.56 | 0.31 | 3.58 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | WAS | 0.281 | 4.73 | 0.344 | 4.7 | 0.258 | 3.61 | 0.344 | 3.77 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | BOS | 0.296 | 3.48 | 0.363 | 4.77 | 0.27 | 4.06 | 0.315 | 4.38 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | CIN | 0.3 | 2.19 | 0.297 | 3.93 | 0.245 | 3.71 | 0.285 | 3.68 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | DET | 0.313 | 2.79 | 0.276 | 3.3 | 0.227 | 3.4 | 0.273 | 3.7 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | TBR | 0.332 | 4.21 | 0.321 | 4.24 | 0.243 | 4.68 | 0.294 | 4.3 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | ATL | 0.276 | 2.52 | 0.313 | 3.53 | 0.246 | 3.5 | 0.313 | 3.25 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | CHC | 0.344 | 3.96 | 0.268 | 3.27 | 0.244 | 4.06 | 0.278 | 4.1 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | MIN | 0.32 | 3.53 | 0.304 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 4.55 | 0.284 | 4.35 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | HOU | 0.388 | 5.75 | 0.323 | 4.31 | 0.266 | 5.3 | 0.263 | 6.07 |
| Mike Pelfrey | CHW | KCR | 0.381 | 5.1 | 0.367 | 5.03 | 0.323 | 5.36 | 0.341 | 5.2 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | STL | 0.29 | 3.54 | 0.371 | 4.4 | 0.254 | 4.61 | 0.283 | 4.72 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | SDP | 0.303 | 2.81 | 0.28 | 2.81 | 0.216 | 4.5 | 0.232 | 4.03 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFG | LAD | 0.353 | 5.37 | 0.268 | 3.11 | 0.248 | 4.03 | 0.289 | 3.94 |
| Ricky Nolasco | LAA | SEA | 0.306 | 3.51 | 0.332 | 5.13 | 0.264 | 4.37 | 0.292 | 4.28 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | TOR | 0.286 | 2.9 | 0.32 | 4.22 | 0.248 | 4.41 | 0.285 | 4.41 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | ARI | 0.277 | 3.88 | 0.32 | 4.16 | 0.252 | 4.01 | 0.307 | 3.75 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | BAL | 0.296 | 2.39 | 0.289 | 3.77 | 0.217 | 3.73 | 0.27 | 3.88 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | PIT | 0.553 | 9 | 0.397 | 12.71 | 0.391 | 5.32 | 0.441 | 7.34 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | CLE | 0.27 | 3.05 | 0.34 | 4.66 | 0.256 | 4.53 | 0.287 | 4.71 |
| Blake Snell | TBR | MIA | 0.289 | 2.01 | 0.326 | 3.87 | 0.254 | 4.82 | 0.327 | 3.8 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | NYM | 0.33 | 3.86 | 0.3 | 3.57 | 0.266 | 4.34 | 0.293 | 4.04 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | PHI | 0.288 | 3.43 | 0.258 | 3.2 | 0.203 | 3.85 | 0.251 | 3.62 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | OAK | 0.333 | 4.43 | 0.322 | 4.37 | 0.24 | 4.97 | 0.262 | 5.04 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | TEX | 0.25 | 2.42 | 0.382 | 6.26 | 0.254 | 3.42 | 0.333 | 3.32 |
| Nathan Karns | KCR | CHW | 0.295 | 3.88 | 0.373 | 6.71 | 0.26 | 4.23 | 0.318 | 4.44 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | MIL | 0.37 | 5.61 | 0.322 | 4.17 | 0.29 | 4.22 | 0.343 | 3.86 |
| Jered Weaver | SDP | COL | 0.355 | 4.76 | 0.368 | 5.2 | 0.285 | 5.35 | 0.285 | 5.85 |
| Julio Urias | LAD | SFG | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.316 | 3.09 | 0.266 | 0.352 | 3.21 | |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | LAA | 4.71 | 0.323 | 3.64 | 0.272 | 0.299 | 4.53 |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Julio Urias LAD (vs. SF, $8500) – If I thought that his leash extended to 100 pitches, then Urias would be sitting amongst the Raise candidates, and his 90-pitch outing last week indicates that he can come close enough to the century mark to do some damage. The sky’s the limit in terms of the young southpaw’s ultimate potential, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, as Urias has thus far posted a combined 88:35 K:BB in 82.2 innings at the highest level. He certainly has the advanced learning curve to accelerate his value quickly, as I have seen Urias morph his delivery over the past couple seasons with surprisingly fluid results,and he could very well be a staple of the Raise section in a matter of weeks, but for now this is still a pitcher that has walked 13 batters in 19.2 innings split between Triple-A and the majors this season, indicating that he might still be finding his ideal release point.
Jameson Taillon PIT (at CIN, $8200) – If you love Stroman, just save yourself $1800 and snag Taillon instead. It’s the same skill-set, the same statistical profile and the two pitchers have similar prospect pedigrees – Taillon just doesn’t get mistaken for the batboy in the team picture. His breaking stuff is not as sharp as Stroman’s but Taillon’s pitch-speed brings an extra tick or two of velocity, helping to support a slightly higher expectation for strikeouts. Taillon held the Reds to two runs over 6.0 innings when he faced them in mid-April, cruising through the half-dozen frames on just 82 pitches in a start that was book-ended by 7.0-inning efforts, but he hasn’t finished the sixth frame in either of his last two starts. The Pirates have let Taillon go as deep as 108 pitches in a game this season but have kept him at 95 throws or under in four of his five starts, and the likelihood is that he will be similarly restricted in tonight’s game.
Antonio Senzatela COL (at SD, $6200) – The bargain basement special, Senzatela has great stuff and is facing a Padres lineup that gives away strikeouts like fliers for Las Vegas hookers. He earns the “stay away” sign when pitching in Coors, but this right-hander is a solid play on the road, and tonight is particularly enticing as Senzatela is playing in a friendly venue against a lineup that will inflate his strikeout totals. He has averaged 94.7 mph on his fastball this season yet has managed to post just 5.1 K/9, but most of his issues have come at his high-altitude home and the right-hander has struck out nine batters in 12.2 innings on the road this season, but be warned that the unimpressive K-rates extend back to his minor-league days and aren’t likely to be an aberration, despite his stuff. At just $6200, he doesn’t need to do much to earn his salary, but Senzatela could blow right past his break-even point and be on of the most profitable pitchers on the slate if the San Diego bats are feeling especially trigger-happy.
Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. BAL, $8100)
Chase Anderson MIL (at STL, $7300)
Marcus Stroman TOR (at NYY, $10000) – Love the player, hate the context. From the opponent to the venue to his price tag and his lack of strikeouts, Stroman has a very low chance of profiting tonight against the Yankees. I will be rooting for him to do so, as Stroman has a legit skill-set and is a joy to watch every time that he takes the mound, but I won’t touch him with a ten-foot pole today in DFS. He’s kept the walks and the home runs allowed at a minimum throughout his career (2.1 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9), helping to minimize the damage done by the copious amounts of base hits that he allows. The power-hitting Yankees will challenge his ability to keep the ball in the yard, and with a low expectation of strikeouts, Stroman’s path to DFS glory is full of potential potholes.
Robbie Ray ARI (at WAS, $8300) – He’s a lesser pitcher than Stroman and is facing the tougher lineup, but the heavy doses of strikeouts are crucial in DFS and help to cover for some of the damage. That said, no pitcher (save for Kershaw) should be trusted against the Nats right now, as their lineup has lost Adam Eaton yet kept right on clicking as the most potent offense in the league. Just like last season, Ray is striking out more than 11 batters per nine, but his walk rate is even worse than the egregious frequency of last season, as Ray is walking five batters per nine innings this season. The hit rate of 7.1 H/9 is a career-low, and the combination of high walks and low hits indicates that Ray’s pitches are darting away from the strike zone, something that could result in a short outing against an advanced offense like that of the Nats.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at CHC, $8000)
Jeff Samardzija SF (at LAD, $8700)
Hector Santiago MIN (vs, OAK, $7500)
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. LAA, $7700)
Adam Wainwright STL (vs. MIL, $7400)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at MIN, $7200)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TOR, $7000)
Charlie Morton HOU (vs. TEX, $6900)
Kevin Gausman BAL (at BOS, $6400) – One of the bigger disappointments of the season’s first month, Gausman has been lit up for an AL-high 25 runs and an MLB-high 42 hits this season. He has always been vulnerable to the long ball, an element that has been especially glaring this season (six homers allowed in 30.0 innings) and his 20L:17 K:BB is simply unplayable right now. The Red Sox offense has been a shell of the version that we saw in 2016, but Gausman is the type of pitcher that could help them to get back on track, and even with the low price tag I have a hard time seeing the profit potential in enlisting his services for today.
Nick Martinez TEX (at HOU, $5600)
Blake Snell TB (vs. MIA, $6700)
Bartolo Colon ATL (vs. NYM, $7100)
Ricky Nolasco LAA (at SEA, $7900)
Matt Boyd DET (vs. CLE, $6500)
Adam Conley MIA (at TB, $6300)
Nate Karns KC (vs, CHW, $6800)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Pelfrey CHW (at KC, $5200)
Rookie Davis CIN (vs. PIT, $5000)
Jered Weaver SD (vs. COL, $6600)