MLB GPP Plays: Friday, July 3rd
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and/or have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP Plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – If you just glance at his numbers (5-6 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP), they don’t look Kershaw like and at his price, many fantasy owners may think he’s not worth paying up for tonight. Well, I think he is. Kershaw’s strikeout rate (32.9%) and swinging strike rate (16%) this season are both career highs. The New York Mets have a lousy .233 team batting average against southpaws with a 23.8% whiff rate, which is the third worst in baseball. Oh, and Kershaw is nearly unhittable at home (.195 BAA with 70 Ks in 46.2 IP). Make no mistake about it, Kershaw will be the top scoring pitcher tonight.
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves – If you look at his ratios, it is clear Julio Teheran is not having a good season (4.94 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) and he has been awful on the road this year (7.40 ERA, .361 BAA). However at home, he has been a completely different pitcher. Teheran is 4-0 at Turner Field with a tidy 2.35 earned run average. In his seven home starts, opponents are only hitting .173 off of him and he has racked up 40 punch-outs in 46 innings pitched. The Philadelphia Phillies have the worst offense in baseball and Teheran has big game upside in this matchup
Michael Wacha and Jesse Chavez – Both Michael Wacha and Jesse Chavez should be strongly considered in your GPPs this evening. They are both pitching at home, facing weak offenses and are reasonably priced on most sites. The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners both struggle versus right-handed pitching and they can strike out with the best of them.
Other Pitchers to Target – Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Fiers, Justin Masterson
CATCHER
Josh Phegley, Oakland A’s – What are they feeding their catchers in Oakland? Every year they seem to turn an average hitting catcher (John Jaso, Derek Norris, Stephen Vogt) into an All-Star. This year it’s Josh Phegley’s turn. Despite some impressive stretches throughout his career, J.A. Happ has yet to figure righties out and they continue to light him up. Phegley has been a beast against lefties this season (.340 BA, .397 OBP, .444 wOBA) and that should continue tonight in Oakland.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals – Minnesota Twins lefty Tommy Milone is a below average pitcher who struggles to retire hitters from the right side of the plate. Salvador Perez has been a very productive hitter versus southpaws in his career. Perez is inexpensive and he has home run upside in this game.
Other Catchers to Target – Matt Wieters, Welington Castillo, Jason Castro
FIRST BASE
Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers – Lind is swinging a hot stick for the Brew Crew with hits in 11 of his last 12 contests, including six multi-hit efforts. Michael Lorenzen has pitched well for the Cincinnati Reds this season, but lefties have been his kryptonite (.307 BAA, .413 OBP, .417 wOBA). Lind continues to feast on right-handed pitching and I love his upside in this matchup.
Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins – When was the last time you saw Joe Mauer in a GPP article? Unfortunately it is 2015 and not 2009, so we are not expecting a multi-homer game from Mauer. However, at his price across the industry, in the right matchup, he can still help your fantasy team. Kansas City Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie is a disaster versus left-handed hitters (.411 wOBA) and Mauer remains an on-base machine against righties. Mauer has hit Guthrie very well (9-26, .346 BA, .500 OBP with 3 homers) in his career and makes a great value play at first base.
Other First Basemen to Target – Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Adam LaRoche, Billy Butler
SECOND BASE
Scooter Gennett, Milwaukee Brewers – While I don’t like his spot in the batting order, I do love his elite contact rate versus right-handed pitching and his recent production. Gennett has five hits in his last two contests, including three extra base hits, three runs scored and four runs batted in. With Michael Lorenzen’s inability to get lefties out, Gennett should continue to stay hot.
Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks – Whether he is on the road or at home, Hill has destroyed Colorado pitching with a .340 career batting average. Kyle Kendrick is a Gas Can and Aaron Hill has hit him hard (.471 BA in 17 ABs) in a decent sample size. Hill is extremely inexpensive on most sites and is one of the top value plays at second base tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, Cesar Hernandez, Chris Owings
THIRD BASE
Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles – I can’t believe I got all the way to third base without picking on whipping boy John Danks. Machado has hits in 13 of his last 14 games, including seven multi-hit efforts. Right-handed hitters have haunted John Danks throughout his career (.331 wOBA) and I expect more of the same tonight at U.S. Cellular Field. Machado was absolutely locked in the entire month of June (.365 BA, .411 OBP with 7 doubles, 8 homers and 22 RBIs) and I see no reason to fade him in this one.
Luis Valbuena, Houston Astros – Valbuena can be a frustrating player to roster (.197 BA, 67 Ks in 71 GP), but he does have massive upside (19 HRs and 35 RBIs). Lefties have murdered Justin Masterson over the years, making Valbuena a great boom-or-bust option at the hot corner.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Todd Frazier, Jake Lamb, Brett Lawrie
SHORTSTOP
J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles – ALL the Baltimore Orioles’ right-handed hitters are in play tonight versus John Danks. Hardy is cheap and he has home run upside.
Xander Bogaerts, Bostin Red Sox – Bogaerts is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate and if he remains in the three-hole tonight, he should have plenty or RBI opportunities versus Dan Straily.
Other Shortstops to Target – Marcus Semien, Alcides Escobar, Nick Ahmed, Erick Aybar
OUTFIELDERS
Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox – Hanley has now hit safely in seven consecutive games, with four of those being of the multi-hit variety. Ramirez is in a groove and he should have another multi-hit game tonight.
Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals – Cain has six hits in his last three games and he has hammered left-handed pitching in 2015 (.341 BA, .420 OBP). Cain can get the job done with his bat and his legs, making him a jack-and-a-bag candidate tonight.
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks – I expect Kyle Kendrick to get smacked around pretty good tonight in Chase Field. David Peralta thrives against righties and I don’t think he will be all that popular in tournaments this evening.
Billy Burns, Oakland A’s – Burns has been very impressive atop the A’s batting order this season with a .320 batting average and a .361 on-base percentage. In his 54 games played, Burns has produced across the board offensively with 16 extra base hits and 16 stolen bases. Look for Burns to lead the Oakland A’s offensive attack with a multi-hit and multi-run game.
Other Outfielders to Target – Gerardo Parra, Nolan Reimold, Kole Calhoun, Adam Eaton, Jonny Gomes