MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, April 5th
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – Verlander showed us in the second half of last season that he still had plenty of gas left in the tank. After the All-Star break, the former M.V.P. and Cy Young Award winner posted a 2.80 ERA along with a .218 OPP BA. He also recorded seven or more punch-outs in nine of his last 14 starts. Facing an average offense at best in the Miami Marlins, and in a spacious ball park, Verlander has big game upside in tournament play.
Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays – Aaron Sanchez has one of the best young arms in baseball. He was dominant out of the bullpen for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015 and he will look to do the same in the starting rotation this year. Primarily using a mid-high 90’s sinker and four-seam fastball, Sanchez will generate plenty of strikeouts and ground balls. The 23-year-old California native had a very strong spring (posting a 19-3 K/BB ratio in 20 IP) and I think that carries over into this start. With his low salary across the industry, Sanchez is easily the best bang for your buck on the mound tonight.
Other Pitchers to Target – Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Michael Wacha, Jose Quintana
CATCHER
Derek Norris, San Diego Padres – Norris has been a beast against southpaws in his career, posting a .291 batting average and a .367 wOBA. He will square off against lefty Scott Kazmir tonight, who not only struggled in the spring, but also saw a dip in velocity. Norris has big potential in this matchup.
Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks – I plan to pick on Colorado Rockies’ starter Chad Bettis quite a bit tonight. Bettis is not a terrible pitcher, but he did post an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP above 1.50 last season. Not to mention, he was a reverse splits pitcher in 2015, getting hit much harder by right-handed batters. Most of the damage against him was done in Coors Field, but Chase Field is also a hitter’s paradise. Castillo has big game upside at a bargain price.
Other Catchers to Target – Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Iannetta
FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox – Playing on the West Coast in a spacious ball park should keep the ownership levels down on Abreu this evening. The White Sox slugger has thrived in the Major Leagues in his short career, doing more damage against righties than lefties. He won’t be cheap, but he makes a nice pivot off some of the more popular first baseman.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants – Slippin’ Jimmy (Nelson) was hit hard by lefties last season, allowing a .298 BAA and a .376 wOBA. Belt very quietly put up big numbers against right-handed pitching in 2015 and gets a nice ball park boost playing in Milwaukee tonight. Making him even more appealing, Belt is rarely popular in tournament play.
Other First Basemen to Target – Adrian Gonzalez, Wil Myers, C.J. Cron, Justin Bour
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners – After an awful start to the 2015 season, Cano picked up his offensive game big time, racking up 15 home runs and a .331 batting average after the All-Star break. The 33-year-old Dominican continued to rake in spring training, producing a .368 batting average with seven homers and 17 runs batted in. Many fantasy owners will ignore Cano due to the lefty-lefty matchup tonight, leaving him low percentage owned in large field tournaments.
Joe Panik, San Francisco – It might be too soon for the Milwaukee Brewers to hit the “Panik” button, but that is not the case for fantasy owners. Hitting in the two-hole, Panik should have another very productive game against Jimmy Nelson, who (as I mentioned earlier) struggles against left-handed batters.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Dee Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Scooter Gennett
THIRD BASE
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers – Most people thought the 36-year-old Beltre was washed up after an ugly start last year, but he actually salvaged his 2015 season with a big second half, batting .316 with 11 home runs and 61 runs batted in. Beltre may get overlooked in GPPs tonight because of the matchup, but he has hit Iwakuma quite well throughout his career (11-36, .306 BA, with a double and three homers).
Danny Valencia, Oakland A’s – Valencia had a career year in 2015, actually producing better number against right-handed pitching. Throughout his career though, he has done most of his damage against southpaws. If you are looking for salary relief at the hot corner, Valencia makes a nice option.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Jake Lamb, Nick Castellanos,
SHORTSTOP
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies – Story had a monster spring and he followed that up with a multi-homer game last night in Arizona. Batting near the top of the Rockies order, there is no denying Story’s upside and we are likely running out of days to get him cheap.
Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs – Right-handed hitters abused lefty Andrew Heaney last season and that means all the Cubs righties are in play this evening. Russell will bat at or near the bottom of the order, but the Cubs have a very deep lineup, providing him with run and RBI opportunities regardless of where he hits in the order. If you are looking for a shortstop punt, Russell is a fine candidate.
Other Shortstops to Target – Corey Seager, Brandon Crawford, Ketel Marte, Jedd Gyorko
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies – Shelby Miller is a very good young pitcher, but he still struggles versus left-handed hitters and Cargo mashes righties, posting a .415 wOBA in 2015. He had a monster second half last season and he is already off to a good start this season, producing two hits, including a home run on opening day. Gonzalez has multi-homer upside and he may not be that popular in GPPs due to the matchup.
J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers – Wei-Yin Chen is a fly ball pitcher who gave up a whopping 25 home runs to right-handed batters last season. Martinez has monster power and multi-homer upside despite the ball park.
Denard Span, San Francisco Giants – Span stuffed the box score (2-4, with two runs, a homer and 5 RBIs) on opening day, pacing the San Francisco Giants to a 12-3 win. The Giants’ leadoff hitter has a nice blend of pop and speed and he is another player that is rarely popular in tournaments. Span is an on-base machine and he has jack-and-a-bag upside in this matchup.
Other Outfielders to Target – Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, Gerardo Parra, Yasmany Tomas, Socrates Brito, Jorge Soler