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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 24th - Page Two

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-24 15:06:43

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Minnesota at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-240 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.390 0.352 34.2% 8.9% 13.7% 48.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.287 28.5% 7.1% 24.3% 46.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.346 32.6% 8.9% 17.6% 50.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.274 29.4% 6.5% 29.8% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.73 5.07 15.9% 8.4% 48.8% 31.0% 18.6%
2017 11 5.12 6.79 15.2% 10.1% 50.8% 39.5% 15.3%

If Kyle Gibson against the Indians sounds like deja vu to you don’t worry you aren’t going crazy. Gibson pitched against the Indians last Sunday. He didn’t pitch terribly allowing three runs in six innings with four strikeouts. Gibson certainly isn’t the type of pitcher we would use against the Indians though. He owns a 6.79 ERA, 15.2% K rate and 10.1% B rate on the season. The Indians own a 20.1% K rate, .333 wOBA and 105 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson’s low strikeout rate combined with the Indians low strikeout rate makes this an easy spot to avoid.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 44.5% 27.6% 19.9%
2017 9 3.34 4.15 30.0% 7.4% 44.8% 34.3% 22.4%

Corey Kuber is the one true ace going on the early slate and the top option for cash games and tournaments. Kluber owns a 30% K rate, 7.4% BB rate and 4.15 ERA through nine starts this season. He’s still getting ground balls at 44.7% but the one knock on Kluber this season is a hard contact rate of 34.3%. The Twins check in with a 21.9% K rate, .325 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber has the top K rate on the slate. He’s far and away the safest option even though you’l have to pay a premium for that safety. You can make a case for fading Kluber in tournaments. If you go that route, I think the best pivot is Jacob Faria who we’ll get to in a minute.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have the lowest implied team total on the slate. Corey Kluber owns a .288 wOBA vs. LH and .274 vs. RH hitters over the past two seasons. The only saving grace here is that Kluber is allowing 34.3% hard contact this season. This isn’t a spot where I have any interest but if I we’re forced to use anyone it would be Brian Dozier. He owns a .347 woBA vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.347 0.325 0.238 33.2% 9.5% 19.6% 37.5% 2B $2,800 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.343 0.391 0.137 34.7% 13.5% 15.3% 47.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.238 44.4% 11.2% 36.6% 33.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.324 0.215 35.5% 9.8% 18.2% 42.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.286 0.302 0.115 27.4% 5.4% 16.9% 38.6% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.322 0.288 0.202 33.7% 4.6% 23.2% 44.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.306 0.298 0.109 24.4% 7.8% 13.3% 36.0% SS $2,900 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.325 0.326 0.189 37.1% 12.6% 31.7% 41.3% C $2,600 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.162 23.2% 6.0% 35.5% 38.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest implied team total on the slate even though that’s partially based on Kluber pitching. This is still a good spot for hitters though. Kyle Gibson owns a .390 wOBA vs. LH and .340 wOBA vs. Rh hitters over the past two seasons. You can fire up an Indians stack with confidence today. That starts with: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis. They all hit RH pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.344 0.343 0.166 27.0% 9.0% 12.7% 45.8% SS $3,600 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.343 0.345 0.196 38.2% 9.2% 19.5% 37.4% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.363 0.340 0.174 28.0% 7.5% 9.7% 38.0% 3B $4,400 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.363 0.381 0.252 37.6% 10.9% 20.6% 38.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,400 1B $10,400
5 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.346 0.314 0.199 29.2% 5.3% 16.5% 34.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.374 0.398 0.264 37.5% 15.1% 16.9% 35.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.223 0.267 0.139 30.0% 5.1% 26.3% 39.1% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.320 0.331 0.118 32.1% 9.2% 19.5% 36.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.396 0.396 0.296 41.7% 12.9% 29.0% 42.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 4:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Miami
cubsmlb Jon Lester miamimlb Justin Nicolino
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.238 0.263 28.6% 3.9% 28.5% 53.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.303 24.4% 1.9% 11.3% 58.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.286 26.1% 7.9% 23.7% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.370 34.5% 8.1% 11.4% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 14 3.90 3.89 24.8% 8.1% 48.2% 26.3% 21.1%

Jon Lester is an interesting option today. He’s still priced like an ace somewhat based on last season. His numbers have held relatively steady at 24.8% K rate, 8.1% BB rate and 3.89 ERA through nine starts this season. He’s still generating ground balls at 48% which is a great skill to have. He’ll take on a Marlins offense that checks in at 20.3% K rate, .333 wOBA and 103 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: If the early slate contained more options, it would be easy to overlook Lester as he’s priced slightly higher than he should be. This slate really only contains one sure thing in Corey Kluber though. Lester is a viable pivot off Kluber and Jacob Faria in all formats.

Justin Nicolino
justin-nicolino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.11 4.99 10.7% 5.8% 46.6% 32.9% 15.4%
2017 3 4.96 4.15 15.5% 10.3% 56.1% 23.8% 9.5%

Justin Nicolino owns a 56.1% ground ball rate through three starts this season. That’s really all that he does well though. He has a 4.15 ERA, 15.5% K rate and 10.3% BB rate. As much as the Cubs offense has struggled this season, they’ve still been good against LH pitching. They own a 20.9% K rate, .347 wOBA and 112 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: There’s too much risk here to consider using Nicolino against a pretty potent Cubs offense.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Nicolino owns a .355 wOBA vs. RH compared to .299 vs. LH hitters. We\ll want to target Nicolino with Cubs RH hitters, anyone that avoids ground balls and those who hit LH pitching well. That list starts with Anthony Rizzo who owns a .374 wOBA against LH pitching and has been on fire from the leadoff spot. Kris Bryant is also an elite options as he hits LH pitching well with a .453 wOBA and owns a 31.2% ground ball rate. Wilson Contreras and Addison Russell also hit LH pitching well and provide a small amount of salary relief.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.374 0.350 0.231 25.6% 9.6% 12.5% 44.3% 1B $4,400 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.453 0.446 0.333 40.9% 18.5% 18.9% 31.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
3 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.358 0.333 0.178 30.1% 8.4% 18.2% 58.8% C $2,800 C $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
4 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.335 0.337 0.216 29.3% 12.9% 22.3% 38.8% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.262 0.152 0.182 18.2% 8.3% 45.8% 45.5% 2B $3,600 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
6 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.395 0.326 0.241 29.3% 7.4% 12.8% 46.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.353 0.322 0.206 32.4% 7.7% 21.1% 44.7% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,800
8 Jon Lester LEFT 0.195 0.211 0.048 26.7% 13.8% 34.5% 81.8% P $9,900 P $10,200 P $19,800
9 Mark Zagunis RIGHT OF $3,400 RF $6,800

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Wilson Contreras and Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Miami

The Marlins have the second-lowest team total on the early slate. They are a tough sell against Jon Lester as he owns a .238 wOBA vs. LH and a .291 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Giancarlo Stanton owns a .434 wOBA vs. LH pitching and hit a home run last night. He’s the one name I could trust here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.258 0.211 0.041 12.7% 1.9% 14.3% 63.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.438 0.400 0.131 36.1% 12.5% 10.6% 41.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.434 0.413 0.368 52.1% 14.7% 25.0% 46.8% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
4 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.311 0.325 0.120 28.4% 6.0% 20.6% 63.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
5 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.377 0.409 0.244 45.1% 9.2% 18.9% 40.6% OF $4,000 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
6 Justin Bour LEFT 0.410 0.351 0.301 36.2% 7.6% 32.9% 46.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.317 0.309 0.180 28.4% 8.7% 20.8% 44.1% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.273 0.217 0.086 24.0% 0.0% 30.6% 62.5% SS $2,400 SS $2,300 SS $4,400
9 Justin Nicolino LEFT 0.000 0.096 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 75.0% P $6,100 P $4,900 P $9,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy tampabaymlb Jacob Faria
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -146 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.325 31.8% 7.9% 16.3% 33.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.221 0.217 23.1% 5.3% 26.3% 69.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.316 28.8% 8.6% 24.0% 34.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.216 0.362 60.0% 6.7% 26.7% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 14 4.93 3.29 17.9% 7.4% 31.9% 33.3% 21.1%

Dylan Bundy has been one of the Orioles better pitchers this season. That says more about their lack of pitching than it does him though. He has a 3.29 ERA, 17.9% K rate and 7.4% BB rate through nine starts. The main problem with Bundy though is that he owns a 46.9% fly ball rate. He’s allowed 13 home runs on the seasons which is about one per start. Today, he’ll take on a Rays offense that owns a 24.9% K rate, .343 wOBA and 116 wRC+ against RH pitching. The Rays do own a .211 ISO which is best in the league against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy comes with a considerable amount of risk in this matchup. The Rays strikeout tendencies could help Bundy a little but when they get ahold of the ball it’s going to be hit far. Bundy is only a very deep GPP play.

Jacob Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 3.36 1.42 26.5% 6.1% 48.5% 45.5% 18.2%

Jacob Faria has seen his salary shoot up to over $8,500 after only three starts. Faria was billed as a top prospect coming out of the minors and he’s lived up to the hype so far. He owns a 26.5% K rate, 6.1% BB rate, and 1.42 ERA so far this season. He also owns a 48.5% ground ball rate. Essentially, Faria offers everything Jon Lester does except for name value. The Orioles check in at 22.8% K rate, .318 wOBA and 95 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Do not let the lack of name value fool you. Jacob Faria is an elite prospect and is worth this price. He’s a viable SP2 in all formats and a decent pivot off Corey Kluber on single-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

In his MLB career so far (three starts), Faria owns a .221 woBA vs. LH and a .216 wOBA vs. RH hitters. If taking a shot on the Orioles here, you want Rh hitters. They own a 60% hard contact rate in a small sampe. They also ground out far less than LH hitters have. That said, we really don’t know where Faria is most vulnerable as we haven’t seen enough of him yet at the MLB level. Someone like Seth Smith potentially has the power to take Faria deep but I personally will not own any Orioles in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.337 0.368 0.173 33.2% 11.0% 21.2% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.237 35.4% 6.7% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.339 0.195 32.2% 5.3% 16.2% 43.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.377 0.259 36.9% 8.6% 23.4% 39.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.411 0.376 0.272 36.5% 7.8% 26.7% 48.6% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.312 0.203 29.2% 3.4% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.142 33.2% 6.2% 26.6% 41.2% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.115 28.8% 9.2% 14.4% 51.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 IF/OF $4,800
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.152 0.241 0.042 15.8% 5.7% 20.8% 41.7% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay

Dylan Bundy owns a .319 wOBA vs. both LH and RH hitters. His 46.9% fly ball rate says we’ll see some long outs and likely a home run or two. You can hunt for a home run here with any of the Rays power hitters that hit RH pitching well. That starts with Logan Morrison who owns a 39.6% hard contact rate against RH pitching. Corey Dickerson and Evan Longoria also hit RH pitching well while Mallex Smith has been on fire lately.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.362 0.272 0.148 22.2% 10.1% 19.8% 61.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.354 0.322 0.271 32.8% 6.2% 21.8% 34.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.234 35.2% 6.1% 19.7% 35.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.245 39.6% 11.0% 22.9% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.329 0.205 32.3% 10.3% 30.8% 40.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
6 Shane Peterson LEFT 0.318 0.214 0.152 26.1% 2.9% 28.6% 39.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,100 LF $4,000
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.302 0.200 43.9% 4.4% 31.8% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.289 0.276 0.118 29.9% 9.5% 25.7% 52.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,000 LF $4,800
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.238 0.265 0.131 31.2% 6.7% 31.7% 33.7% C $2,400 C $2,400 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria and Mallex Smith

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.