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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 24th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-25 03:40:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Texas at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Texas NY Yankees
texasmlb Austin Bibens-Dirkx nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-145 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.367 33.3% 8.7% 6.5% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.337 40.2% 5.6% 16.8% 43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.325 41.0% 5.7% 18.9% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.340 29.4% 4.6% 15.0% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Austin Bibens-Dirkx
austin-bibens-dirkx-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 5.20 3.28 13.1% 7.1% 37.2% 37.2% 18.0%

Welcome to the MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today but how they are divided depends what site you are playing on. FanDuel has included the Yankees and Rangers with the other two games that start before 4:00 PM to form a Very Early only slate. They are starting their afternoon slate at 4:05. DraftKings left the Yankees and Rangers of everything except their all day slate. They are starting their afternoon slate at 2:100 though.

We’ll go ahead and dive right in. No matter what slate you are playing, you aren’t pitching Austin Bibens-Dirkx against the Yankees. He owns a 41.9% fly ball rate, 37.22% hard contact rate and 13.1% K rate. The Yankees own a 22.3% K rate, .355 wOBA and 121 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If this game is included in the slate you are playing, you’ll want to load up on several Yankees power hitters. Bibens-Dirkx can be ignored in all formats though.

Luis Cessa
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.42 4.35 16.1% 4.9% 43.2% 33.8% 16.2%
2017 0 5.19 5.40 7.7% 7.7% 45.5% 36.4% 0.0%

Luis Cessa will make a spot start for the Yankees. In nine starts last season, he showed great control with a 4.9% BB rate. He’s never been an elite strikeout arm though with a 16.1% K rate. The Rangers will help in the strikeout department though with a 23.4% K rate, .321 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given that this game is mainly offered only on FanDuel, I don’t see any reason to use Cessa. I would normally classify him as a low-end SP2 but that’s not necessary on FD. You could possibly use Cessa to load up on hitters on FD but he’ll cost you one Yankee bat as you can only have four Yankees total.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

We can attack Cessa with batters from either side of the plate. Luic Cessa is allowing a .327 wOBA to LH and .316 wOBA to RH hitters in his short MLB career. More importantly, he’s allowing 40.1% hard contact to LH hitters. Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo stand out as the best options here. We’ll call them elite options if you are playing the very early slate. Behind them, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor are acceptable plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.336 0.384 0.162 40.9% 13.1% 21.1% 47.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.317 0.140 26.9% 7.8% 14.3% 46.5% SS $2,900 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.336 0.190 31.0% 8.2% 18.9% 43.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.355 0.363 0.200 33.9% 6.5% 10.9% 40.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.334 0.299 0.248 34.8% 3.1% 22.4% 39.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.323 0.301 0.183 33.5% 9.1% 27.7% 41.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.351 0.336 0.173 30.4% 7.1% 14.6% 42.8% C $2,800 C $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.323 0.329 0.236 34.4% 9.5% 30.0% 36.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.319 0.322 0.289 41.8% 12.5% 38.9% 27.2% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $4,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees have one of the highest implied team totals on the entire. If you are plying the very early slate, this is the top offense. Bibens-Dirkx MLB numbers look impressive with a .274 wOBA vs. LH and .269 vs. RH hitters. The bulk of those numbers were achieved pitching in high leverage spots out of the bullpen. You aren’t going to get away with a 41.2% fy ball rate and 37.2% hard contact rate against this Yankees offense. The preferred options are the Yankees power hitters in Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. The latter two have a wOBA over .400 against RH pitching. Matt Holliday and just about everyone that makes the lineup today is also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.326 0.149 30.7% 12.2% 17.7% 47.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.342 0.311 0.168 26.5% 12.6% 18.1% 46.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.415 0.415 0.320 49.4% 12.5% 33.4% 38.0% OF $4,900 OF $5,700 N/A N/A
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.352 0.361 0.212 35.7% 9.8% 20.1% 49.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.336 0.311 0.181 31.8% 3.6% 18.9% 49.2% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.433 0.390 0.316 38.3% 9.0% 22.1% 47.8% C $3,800 C $5,000 N/A N/A
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.313 0.263 0.178 24.4% 3.1% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.334 0.347 0.242 39.3% 11.6% 34.4% 29.9% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.297 0.267 0.119 20.6% 3.2% 10.8% 51.3% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Oakland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Oakland Chicago White Sox
oaklandmlb Daniel Gossett whitesoxmlb James Shields
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS-105 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.370 55.6% 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.350 28.0% 11.6% 14.5% 43.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.615 0.515 57.1% 11.1% 11.1% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.360 38.8% 9.1% 19.3% 35.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Gossett
daniel-gossett-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 5.95 16.20 5.6% 5.6% 53.3% 56.3% 18.8%

The second game of the day, kicks off the afternoon slate on most sites. The table above is missing one of Gossett’s two starts this season. He was terrible in his first start against Miami allowing six earned runs in just 3.1 innings. He was able to handle the Astros powerful offense in the following start allowing just two earned runs in 6.2 innings. The book on Gossett is still open. In the minor leagues he showed great control with a 46.5% ground ball rate or higher at every stop. The strikeouts dipped to around 21% though as he rose through the ranks.

Quick Breakdown: Gosset comes with more risk than we really need to take on today. The White Sox are usually an offense we pick on with RH pitching as they own a 22.6% K rate, .301 wOBA and 84 wRC+. Gossett isn’t the type of RH pitcher we would ideally want though.

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.12 5.85 16.4% 10.0% 40.4% 33.8% 15.3%
2017 3 5.31 1.62 23.2% 14.5% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9%

James Shields is a tough pitcher to figure out. His 5.31 SIERA through three starts says he’s still the pitcher he was last season in 33 starts. The runs really haven’t been there this year though with a 1.62 ERA. It’s easy to see the reason though. Shields has a 98.2% left on base (LOB) rate this season. That number certainly isn’t going to hold up. He’s also allowing a .203 BABIP which is also going to regress. THe Athletics check in with a 25%K rate, .319 wOBA and 101 wRC+ for RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At some point, regression is coming for James Shields and he’s going to allow runs and home runs like he did last season. He’s certainly not a viable pitching option even against an Athletics team that will strikeout. Stacking against Shields or at least grabbing some Athletics power does sound like a good idea though.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Shields owns a .368 wOBA vs. LH and .370 wOBA vs. RH hitters the past two seasons. Matt Joyce has a .354 wOBA against RH pitching and usually gets a favorable lineup spot. He’s an excellent option here. You also can’t go wrong with Khris Davis and Yonder Alonso who both hit RH pitching well and generate hard contact at over 35%.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.354 0.368 0.215 37.6% 18.0% 22.0% 41.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
2 Matt Olson LEFT 0.238 0.262 0.038 22.2% 25.7% 22.9% 38.9% OF $2,200 OF $2,000 LF $3,900
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.326 0.328 0.136 32.4% 8.6% 16.6% 35.7% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.346 0.363 0.275 39.7% 7.3% 29.2% 42.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.339 0.369 0.168 34.8% 10.3% 16.3% 38.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.347 0.335 0.225 35.6% 4.0% 24.7% 39.9% 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.257 0.249 0.000 21.7% 9.4% 18.8% 56.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 CF $5,100
8 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.266 0.299 0.135 32.9% 3.9% 17.5% 35.4% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.286 0.257 0.179 31.5% 5.8% 31.4% 34.4% 2B $2,300 SS $2,400 3B $4,800

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis and Yonder Alonso

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox offer a sneaky value stack against Daniel Gossett. He’s shown some ground ball tendencies but he’s also been plenty hit able at the MLB level. The White Sox offer a sneaky source of value on the early slate. Gossett has only faced 44 MLB hitters but is allowing a .464 wOBA to RH and .214 wOBA to LH hitters. This is a great spot for Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia and Melky Cabrera.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.250 0.237 0.094 22.9% 3.4% 17.0% 48.5% 2B $2,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.329 0.329 0.132 29.1% 7.9% 10.1% 46.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.340 0.345 0.165 33.5% 6.0% 16.9% 45.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.326 0.330 0.165 32.4% 5.9% 24.5% 53.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.319 0.320 0.223 31.1% 10.0% 22.8% 38.8% 3B $3,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.354 0.309 0.323 50.0% 4.5% 44.7% 31.8% 1B $3,200 1B/3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.294 0.274 0.150 30.8% 3.0% 26.9% 50.7% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.270 0.298 0.029 14.3% 10.9% 12.5% 42.5% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.299 0.280 0.141 23.9% 4.9% 23.4% 40.3% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,800

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Avisail Garcia and Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Toronto at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Toronto Kansas City
torontomlb Marco Estrada kansascitymlb Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -101 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.276 27.9% 8.1% 24.2% 35.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.379 0.348 29.9% 2.6% 10.4% 35.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.323 33.9% 7.9% 23.9% 32.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.239 0.255 30.7% 6.5% 23.1% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 14 3.63 4.54 26.6% 5.8% 34.9% 30.2% 15.5%

This is the final game of the very early slate and is probably where you are getting your pitcher from. The sites have caught on to the idea that Marco Estrada is a solid pitcher but not quite an ace. He has a 26.6% K rate, 4.54 ERA and 5.8% BB rate through 14 starts this season. He’ll take on a Royals offense that owns a 21.1% K rate, .302 wOBA and 81 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is the best option for all formats on the FanDuel very early slate. He’s a solid SP2 on DK for the early slate that includes seven games. Estrada is a good enough pitcher to handle this Royals offense.

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.96 2.25 23.4% 6.4% 36.4% 33.3% 15.2%
2017 13 4.35 2.10 20.1% 5.6% 36.9% 30.1% 19.3%

Jason Vargas is really two different pitchers. Over the past two seasons he owns a .379 wOBA and 10.4 % K rate vs. LH hitting. Against RH hitting, he checks in at .239 wOBA and 23.1% K rate. Overall, Vargas has been decent this season with a 2.1 ERA and 20.1% K rate. The Blue Jays are not a terrible matchup for Vargas. They will probably only have two LH hitters in the lineup. Overall, they own a 21.6% K rate, .316 wOBA and .94 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Vargas is the second-best best pitcher on the very early slate but likely someone I would only consider in tournaments as an SP2 elsewhere on the larger slates.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

As I mentioned above, you want to target Vargas with LH hitters as he owns a .379 wOBA and 10% K rate. That really just leaves us with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Of the two, Morales is the better hitter against LH pitching with a .383 wOBA. You could also consider Josh Donaldson against any LH pitcher as he owns a .408 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.279 0.339 0.150 34.6% 14.0% 21.5% 43.6% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.316 0.361 0.163 45.5% 16.6% 29.4% 42.0% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.408 0.418 0.245 39.3% 19.0% 14.1% 33.6% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.338 0.362 0.175 34.2% 9.8% 15.7% 40.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.383 0.397 0.229 40.0% 4.7% 20.0% 38.9% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.304 0.317 0.146 30.4% 9.8% 15.0% 44.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.402 0.368 0.295 45.1% 11.8% 23.6% 36.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 1B $7,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.335 0.308 0.164 35.8% 3.7% 14.7% 36.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.304 0.290 0.082 25.4% 8.1% 18.0% 41.0% SS $2,200 2B/3B $2,300 2B $4,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Kansas City

The Royals are less exciting today against Marco Estrada. What we know about Estrada is that he is a fly ball pitcher who manages to generate a decent amount of soft contact at 15.5%. The Royals don’t necessarily have a lot of power though which is a big part of the reason why you can pitch Estrada today. You can hunt for a home run here with Jorge Bonifacio, Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas though

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.297 0.296 0.122 32.2% 4.6% 18.1% 42.0% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.351 0.364 0.236 34.0% 7.9% 24.3% 38.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.326 0.312 0.128 30.3% 7.4% 20.8% 48.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.351 0.357 0.168 34.4% 9.6% 18.4% 56.8% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.321 0.309 0.200 37.6% 3.4% 20.4% 33.8% C $3,300 C $3,900 C $7,800
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.364 0.370 0.277 35.7% 6.9% 15.5% 35.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.310 0.328 0.265 38.5% 9.2% 31.1% 26.2% 1B $2,300 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.257 0.248 0.079 22.8% 3.3% 16.7% 46.6% SS $2,600 SS $2,200 SS $4,100
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.292 0.327 0.149 35.8% 10.2% 26.4% 39.4% OF $2,200 OF $2,600 LF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jorge Bonifacio

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Cincinnati at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Washington
cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-155 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.420 0.403 51.5% 6.4% 21.3% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 0.357 35.0% 8.3% 18.9% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.295 14.3% 6.3% 26.6% 43.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.295 28.9% 4.1% 23.3% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%

Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season. He’s set to return from an elbow injury that limited him to just nine starts last season. It’s tough to know what to expect from Bailey in this spot. He had a 24.3% K rate, 6.3% BB rate, and 45.3% ground ball rate. At one point, Bailey was one of the Reds best prospects but we should keep our expectations in check here. The Nationals own a 19.4% K rate, .344 wOBA and 110 wRC+ versus RH pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey is only in play in the deepest of GPPs today as an SP2. Realistically, it’s best to simply take a wait and see approach here given the difficult matchup.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 8 3.98 6.39 22.2% 5.2% 39.0% 37.1% 21.4%

Joe Ross is also a tough pitcher to figure out. Throughout his career, Ross has always had a problem with LH hitters. He owns a career .366 wOBA vs. LH compared to .266 vs. RH hitters. That hasn’t changed this season and likely won’t in the future. The Reds are a somewhat difficult matchup for RH pitching with a 20.9% K rate, .332 wOBA and 101 wRC+. They also own a .191 ISO which is 10th best in the league.

Quick Breakdown: All things considered, this probably isn’t the ideal spot to roll out Joe Ross. The Reds have some dangerous LH power in their lineup. Ross can be considered in tournaments on DK at his bargain price though.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The ideal targets here are Reds LH hitters. That obviously starts with Joey Votto who owns a .423 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Scooter Gennett is also worth a look if he’s batting near the top of the order. He owns a .326 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Finally, Scott Schebler owns a .341 wOBA and is in play against someone like Ross who struggles against Lh hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.252 0.078 18.5% 8.9% 20.1% 47.5% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.326 0.292 0.175 31.3% 5.4% 20.1% 42.9% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.436 0.257 40.1% 17.3% 14.3% 37.2% 1B $4,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.326 0.253 36.6% 5.8% 27.0% 33.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.315 0.155 33.2% 8.2% 23.6% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.335 0.215 35.9% 7.9% 21.4% 49.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.298 0.297 0.198 22.1% 8.4% 18.9% 41.2% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.309 0.297 0.093 19.6% 1.8% 13.7% 43.7% SS $2,300 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.088 0.077 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 100.0% P $6,500 P $4,400 P $8,800

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Washington

Given that Homer Bailley only started nine games last season it is best to look at his career numbers. He owns a .333 wOBA vs. LH and .310 wOBA vs. RH hitters. He’s generally always hovered around a 45% ground ball rate and 20% K rate. Those numbers are nothing special but they are essentially league average for a SP. We can target Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy here as we would against any RH pitcher. I wouldn’t call them elite plays though. As far as the rest of the Nationals, this is more of a stack or nothing spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.329 0.232 30.8% 4.5% 18.3% 47.5% SS $4,200 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.317 0.264 0.224 33.3% 5.7% 25.7% 45.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.382 0.397 0.245 34.9% 18.3% 15.5% 39.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.331 0.341 0.198 36.4% 5.7% 23.0% 44.7% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.412 0.396 0.247 38.2% 6.7% 8.8% 35.9% 2B $4,100 2B $5,200 2B $10,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.343 0.344 0.189 34.8% 9.7% 17.8% 37.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.307 0.320 0.161 33.3% 6.4% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.284 0.273 0.167 31.6% 5.2% 31.6% 41.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.180 0.151 0.023 15.4% 2.2% 41.3% 76.0% P $7,900 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee at Atlanta – 4:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Atlanta
milwaukeemlb Matt Garza atlantamlb R.A. Dickey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-106 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.362 37.1% 10.3% 11.9% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.341 28.5% 9.9% 14.8% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.291 33.7% 4.9% 19.9% 53.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.348 30.5% 8.3% 17.0% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza
matt-garza-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 9 4.61 4.17 18.1% 6.8% 42.7% 36.4% 11.0%

Matt Garza has not been anything special through nine starts this season. He owns a 4.17 ERA, 18.1% K rate and 6.8% BB rate. Garza had shown excellent ground ball ability last season at 54.3% but that has dropped to 42.7% this year. He still has a problem with hard contact as well allowing 36.4%. The Braves check in at 19.5% K rate, .320 wOBA and 94 wRC+ vs. RH pitching. Those aren’t necessarily the type of numbers we want to target.

Quick Breakdown: Matt Garza is not a great option today as he only owns an 18.1% K rate and the Braves don’t really help out in that department as they check in at 19.5%.

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 13 5.43 5.35 13.3% 9.8% 49.6% 28.9% 25.0%

In two of his last three starts, R.A. Dickey has scored 28 or more DK points. While that sounds great, those starts were against San Francisco and Philadelphia. In the other start, he was dominated by the Nationals. This season, Dickey owns a 13.3% K rate, 5.35 ERA and 9.8% BB rate. He has a .343 wOBA vs. LH and .350 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Brewers are usually a team we target with RH pitching as they own 24.6% K rate, .328 wOBA and 96 wRC+. They do own a .192 ISO though which ranks ninth..

Quick Breakdown: I’m not letting two good starts against the Phillies and Giants fool me. R.A. Dickey offers almost no strikeout upside. He can be avoided in everything but the deepest of tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Given that Dickey has a wOBA over .340 to hitters from both sides of the plate, we shouldn’t be afraid to use a Brewers here. Eric Sogard and Eric Thames each own a wOBA over .425 against RH pitching. They are strong plays in this matchup. Travis Shaw is also worth a look although he’s less exciting. He does have one career home run in 14 at bats off Dickey.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.425 0.402 0.164 24.1% 18.1% 10.8% 37.9% 2B $3,600 2B/SS $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.432 0.373 0.348 43.2% 19.0% 22.6% 40.9% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,500 1B $8,700
3 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.339 0.175 35.2% 11.6% 31.4% 45.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.201 36.5% 8.7% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.316 0.298 0.167 31.2% 4.3% 18.4% 48.4% OF $3,200 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.195 26.6% 6.9% 17.2% 35.2% C $2,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.312 0.290 0.204 38.8% 9.2% 38.7% 43.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.122 25.7% 4.4% 21.6% 55.1% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.133 0.145 0.000 6.7% 6.5% 41.9% 91.7% P $7,500 P $5,700 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Eric Thames and Eric Sogard

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Atlanta

Matt Garza is best targeted with LH hitters. He owns a .353 wOBA and lowly 11.9% K rate over the last two seasons vs. LH hitters. The only issue is the Braves do’t have a lot to offer when t comes to LH hitters. Matt Adams stands out as the best option as he owns a .350 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Ender Inciarte is also worth a look but he offers almost no power with a .103 ISO vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.296 0.103 26.4% 8.3% 13.5% 42.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.330 0.306 0.128 28.6% 3.2% 12.2% 47.0% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.339 0.359 0.136 34.0% 11.4% 16.4% 43.5% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.340 0.352 0.217 36.8% 4.9% 23.9% 40.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.350 0.348 0.235 37.9% 8.4% 25.1% 33.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.367 0.343 0.155 41.8% 8.0% 25.1% 41.8% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.273 0.301 0.099 32.1% 10.1% 23.9% 49.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.242 0.258 0.115 27.8% 0.0% 33.3% 52.9% SS $2,600 3B $2,800 SS $5,400
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.114 0.135 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 76.5% P $7,200 P $5,300 P $10,400

Elite Plays – Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.