MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 12th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-09-13 20:27:28

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

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Kansas City at Baltimore – 1:05 PM EST

Kansas City					Baltimore
			Yordano Ventura					Chris Tillman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.694	0.306	21.4%	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.675	0.300	17.10%
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.685	0.306	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.759	0.330	16.60%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yordano Ventura

Ventura has been a serviceable pitcher this year, as well as recently. Over the last month, he has a SIERA of 3.39 with a solid strikeout rate of 29.7%. It will be tough to keep that up against the Orioles who are seventh in the league in team wOBA against right-handed pitching (.320). Regardless, he is one of the better starting options in the early afternoon slate. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,500 DK

Chris Tillman

Tillman is a serviceable real life starter, but not someone to focus much fantasy usage on. He comes into this game with a 4.62 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 16.3%. He has a tough matchup against the Royals today who have the lowest strikeout rate in the league (15.3%). Tillman should be avoided. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are in a great spot as they see a huge ballpark boost as well as a matchup against Tillman. Tillman has allowed a .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters this year putting Lorenzo Cain into an elite play as he has been hot recently with four home runs in the month of September.

Elite Plays:

Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.158

Secondary Plays:

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.193

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.168

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.181

Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles are in a decent spot, at home against Ventura. On the season, Ventura has allowed a .334 wOBA against left-handed hitters on the season. Chris Davis and Gerardo Parra in elite plays this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.322

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.189

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.202

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.217

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 1:05 PM EST

St. Louis					Cincinnati
			Lance Lynn					Anthony Desclafani
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-140)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.750	0.331	17.4%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.782	0.339	18.70%
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.633	0.282	25.5%	SP vs. Right	0.271	0.702	0.304	18.00%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn

Lynn was lit up in his last start against the Cubs and will look to fare much better against the Reds. While his statistics look solid over the last month, Lynn has struggled with a 5.02 SIERA and only a 15.7% strikeout rate. For his price tag, he would be an easy avoid, but there are very few options on the early slate putting him in play as a decent favorite in a game with a seven and a half total. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $10,200 DK

Anthony Desclafani

DeSclafani has actually pitched decently over his last month of play. During that six-game span, he has a SIERA of 3.48, while striking batters out at a 21.2% clip. At his price on FD, he could be a contrarian tournament play in the early slate that should go low owned. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $9,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals get a decent matchup this afternoon against DeSclafani. On the season, he has allowed a .329 wOBA to lefties, which puts Carpenter and Heyward into elite plays. Jhonny Peralta continues to be cheap in the cleanup spot over at FD.

Elite Plays:

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.223

Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.171

Secondary Plays:

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.113

Cincinnati

Lynn has struggled all season long with left-handed bats allowing a wOBA of .354. Joey Votto is a great play at the first base position, while Jay Bruce and the cheap Todd Frazier are also in play.

Elite Plays:

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.437 — ISO: 0.254

Secondary Plays:

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.226

Todd Frazier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.210

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Toronto					NY Yankees
			Marco Estrada					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.212	0.673	0.295	18.3%	SP vs. Left	0.234	0.649	0.280	21.80%
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.722	0.316	20.7%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.684	0.296	23.30%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada

Estrada has pitched very well for the Blue Jays. He has not allowed more than three earned runs over his last eight starts. The problem with Estrada is a combination of low strikeout rate (18.6%) and matchup against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium who are third in the league in team wOBA against righties (.322). Rating = 5

Salaries: $8,500 FD, $8,300 DK

Michael Pineda

Pineda has had an up and down season. Over his last ten games, he has allowed four or more runs in five of his starts, while allowing one earned run or less in four of those starts as well. He always has a high upside, but the matchup today is too tough to trust him. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

This Blue Jays offense is never one you want to ignore. Today they face Pineda who has allowed a .327 wOBA to right-handed bats. They are expensive as always, but do have a team total of 4.46. We saw them crush a Severino last night, and could see them get to Pineda today.

Elite Plays:

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.263

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.293

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.177

Secondary Plays:

Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.031

Chris Colabello
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.177

NY Yankees

Although Estrada has pitched well, the Yankees offense is in play at home with a team total of 4.04. Jacoby Ellsbury is a solid elite play for his price and Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner and Brian McCann are all solid secondary plays this afternoon.

Elite Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315— ISO: 0.108

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Beltran
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.204

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.237

Brett Gardner

Boston at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM EST

Boston					Tampa Bay
			Rick Porcello					Matt Moore
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (-104)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.774	0.336	16.5%	SP vs. Left	0.278	0.831	0.354	13.30%
SP vs. Right	0.271	0.712	0.312	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.339	0.922	0.400	13.20%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello

Porcello has pitched well for the Red Sox recently. Over the last two months, Porcello has posted a 3.40 SIERA as well as a solid 22% strikeout rate. He gets a solid matchup against the Rays today that continue to be in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties (.302). He makes a decent SP2 with a bit of risk attached. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8,200 FD, $9,600 DK

Matt Moore

Matt Moore brings his 8.04 ERA into an extremely tough matchup against the Red Sox. He has a bit of a benefit from pitching at home, but it should not be enough. Even if he pitches well, he has yet to hit the 90-pitch mark this season. Avoid him in all formats as he takes a Red Sox team that has a wOBA of .326 against lefties. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $5,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are in a great spot tonight against the Rays. Although it is not the best hitters park, they get to face off against Moore who has been crushed by righties on the season (.429 wOBA allowed). Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Xander Bogaerts are all elite plays.

Elite Plays:

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.222

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339— ISO: 0.192

Xander Bogaerts
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.109

Secondary Plays:

Rusney Castillo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.167

David Ortiz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.276 — ISO: 0.166

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay has continued to be a decent source of value. When they get a right-handed pitcher, Daniel Nava, Grady Sizemore and John Jaso are all decent, punt plays against Porcello who has allowed a .360 wOBA to lefties. It is tough to suggest them being elite plays as they are usually pulled before they can get a fourth at bat.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Nava
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.098

Grady Sizemore
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.159

John Jaso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.153

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM EST

Washington					Miami
			Tanner Roark					Jose Fernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA (-160)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.249	0.726	0.319	12.2%	SP vs. Left	0.250	0.678	0.300	26.90%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.626	0.274	20.9%	SP vs. Right	0.150	0.420	0.187	38.40%
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark

In Roark’s first start back, he was able to make it only 4.1 innings, but only allowed one earned run during that game. The upside is not there for Roark tonight, especially when facing Jose Fernandez tonight. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,700 FD, $5,400 DK

Jose Fernandez

He’s back…again. Fernandez gets to make only his eighth start of his injury ridden year. In the games he has pitched, he has been great with a 2.69 SIERA and an elite 31% strikeout rate. He has a decent matchup against the Nationals tonight and should be viewed as a top option just behind Syndergaard and Bumgarner. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $10,700 FD, $11,700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Jose Fernandez is not a pitcher that should be targeted against for daily fantasy purposes. He has allowed under a .299 wOBA from both sides of the plate this year. Avoid the bats against him unless you want to take a tournament play on Bryce Harper tonight.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Miami

The Marlins have a decent matchup against Roark this afternoon who is just coming back. Roark has allowed a .369 wOBA to left-handed bats this year, putting Justin Bour and Dee Gordon in an elite category.

Elite Plays:

Justin Bour
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.214

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.078

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.120

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