MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 6 - Page Two

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2015-09-06 13:50:27

Philadelphia at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Philadelphia					Boston
			Jerad Eickhoff					Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-185)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.333	1.067	0.448	0.067	SP vs. Left	0.29	0.933	0.394	0.184
SP vs. Right	0.136	0.338	0.149	0.289	SP vs. Right	0.232	0.646	0.285	0.174
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerad Eickhoff – Eickhoff has been solid in his first three major league starts, but his 4.18 SIERA shows to exercise caution when compared with his 2.84 ERA. He has a solid strikeout/walk ratio, but a high fly ball rate is going to get him into trouble at some point. A trip to Boston doesn’t seem like a good place for him, so I can’t recommend taking a chance on him today. Also, he spells his name JErAd, isn’t that supposed to be Jared? Seems sketchy to me. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 19 – SIERA: 4.18 – ERA: 2.84 – K%: 20.0% – BB%: 5.3% – HR/9: 0.95

Salaries: $5,200 FD, $5,300 DK

Eduardo Rodriguez – Rodriguez continues to put up respectable starts, despite below average peripherals. A strong but not elite ground ball rate with a league average walk rate has been enough for him to limit the damage on most days. But the strikeouts have not been high enough to give him any kind of upside, which makes him a tough play. The Phillies are not as bad an offensive team as people seem to think, so while a win is likely, I’m not looking to use Rodriguez. Pitcher Rating – 5.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 97 – SIERA: 4.25 – ERA: 4.25 – K%: 17.6% – BB%: 7.2% – HR/9: 1.11

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Rodriguez doesn’t have strong splits; he has actually allowed a much higher wOBA to left-handed batters, but that is mostly due to a high HR/FB rate. His stuff is just decent enough that I can’t consider any Phillies bats as elite plays, but I do expect them to put up some runs, so you can use them as fill ins as salary dictates.

Secondary Plays:

Darin Ruf – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .434 – OBP: .424 – ISO: .238 – wRC+: 178
Andres Blanco – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .416 – OBP: .417 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 166
Cameron Rupp – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .447 – OBP: .407 – ISO: .333 – wRC+: 187

Boston

It’s a very small sample size, but Eickhoff has looked bad against left-handed hitters with a .449 wOBA allowed. That is only based on 30 batters faced, so don’t put too much stock in the number, but it is certainly reasonable to expect the Red Sox left-handers to have success against him. He has struck out 29% of right-handed batters that he’s faced but is also allowing a 51.6% fly ball rate and 38.7% hard hit rate, making the right-handed batters tournament options.

Elite Plays:

David Ortiz – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .413 – OBP: .399 – ISO: .310 – wRC+: 163
Jackie Bradley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .308 – ISO: .264 – wRC+: 112

Secondary Plays:

Mookie Betts – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .191 – wRC+: 113
Travis Shaw – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .333 – ISO: .190 – wRC+: 116
Brock Holt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .101 – wRC+: 94
Xander Bogaerts – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .306 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .088 – wRC+: 88

Atlanta at Washington – 1:35 PM EST

Atlanta					Washington
			Manny Banuelos					Joe Ross
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-244)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.262	0.786	0.34	0.2
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.179	0.483	0.214	0.281
Batter Splits			ATL vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Manny Banuelos – It appears the Braves are going to give Banuelos another start, but it’s hard to figure why. He may still develop into a good major league pitcher, but he’s just not there yet. A low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a 5.50 SIERA are not good. Feel free to stack the Nationals, while staying away from Banuelos. Pitcher Rating – 2

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 24 – SIERA: 5.05 – ERA: 3.33 – K%: 14.8% – BB%: 10.2% – HR/9: 0.74

Salaries: $5,300 FD, $4,400 DK

Joe Ross – Ross has excellent overall numbers, but two of his last five starts have been very concerning, including his last outing at St. Louis. He walked six batters in less than three innings before being pulled. He has surpassed his career high in innings pitched and there is some concern that he’s wearing down. That being said, he was his usual self his previous two starts, allowing just one run in 13 innings, and today he faces a weak Braves lineup at home as a heavy favorite. I am personally going to stay away from him, but he is a reasonable play, and I wouldn’t try to talk you out of using him, especially in tournaments. You just have to decide if you’re willing to take the risk on his possible tired arm when weighing against his upside. Pitcher Rating – 7

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 69 – SIERA: 3.34 – ERA: 3.50 – K%: 24.2% – BB%: 6.1% – HR/9: 0.91

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $8,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Joe Ross has been outstanding against right-handed batters with a 28% strikeout rate and 61% ground ball rate, but he can be hit by lefties who have a .340 wOBA against him. I wouldn’t target them, as you shouldn’t expect a big game from this offense, but the left-handed bats can be sprinkled in where they are under-priced.

Elite Plays:

Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .380 – ISO: .231 – wRC+: 149

Secondary Plays:

Nick Markakis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .081 – wRC+: 117
A.J. Pierzynski – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .346 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .149 – wRC+: 119

Washington

In a small sample size, Banuelos hasn’t been good against either right or left-handed batters. All the Nationals batters are in play, and I would consider them a strong stack as they are likely to get to Banuelos early and then face a weak Braves bullpen. They have been hitting well recently; they come in with the second most runs scored over the past two weeks with a .392 team wOBA.

Elite Plays:

Ryan Zimmerman – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .430 – OBP: .364 – ISO: .360 – wRC+: 176
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .425 – OBP: .446 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 173
Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .365 – ISO: .080 – wRC+: 117
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .310 – OBP: .246 – ISO: .279 – wRC+: 97

Secondary Plays:

Yunel Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .302 – OBP: .322 – ISO: .081 – wRC+: 89
Ian Desmond – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .200 – wRC+: 107

Minnesota at Houston – 2:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Houston
			Tyler Duffey					Dallas Keuchel
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-230)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.365	0.968	0.422	0.2	SP vs. Left	0.197	0.499	0.224	0.256
SP vs. Right	0.149	0.543	0.246	0.189	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.635	0.282	0.19
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits			HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Duffey – Duffey’s first five starts show the ups and downs you get from a young pitcher. He clearly has some skills, but it’s going to take a while to reign them in at the major league level. A trip to Houston is not the place to take a chance on him. Pitcher Rating – 3.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 25 – SIERA: 4.74 – ERA: 4.56 – K%: 19.5% – BB%: 12.4% – HR/9: 1.05

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $6,100 DK

Dallas Keuchel – I’ll let you in a little secret; Dallas Keuchel is amazing. He has the fifth best SIERA among all starters, and his 62.5% ground ball rate is the second best number in the league. His swinging strike rate is up to 12% over the past month, which is a silly good number for someone with his ground ball ability. The Twins can be a tough team against left-handed pitching, but I see Keuchel as the top cash game play on the board today. I’m fine with using him in tournaments as well. Pitcher Rating – 9.5

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 192 – SIERA: 2.79 – ERA: 2.24 – K%: 23.0% – BB%: 5.6% – HR/9: 0.47

Salaries: $11,200 FD, $12,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

For the record, I am not in any way considering playing any Twins hitters against Dallas Keuchel. That being said, they do have a lot of skilled hitters against left-handed pitching, so I’ll mention Sano and Dozier as secondary plays, but you won’t see them anywhere near any of my rosters.

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .369 – ISO: .241 – wRC+: 149
Brian Dozier – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .216 – wRC+: 118

Houston

In a small sample size, Tyler Duffey has struggled with his command, leading to a rough 4.56 ERA. If you remove some fluky BABIP numbers on both sides, he has been the same pitcher against both right and left-handed batters. He has an above average ground ball rate, but not high enough to worry about. The Astros make for a good tournament stack, as if Duffey struggles early, they could really pile on.

Elite Plays:

Carlos Correa – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .335 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 122
Preston Tucker – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .320 – ISO: .246 – wRC+: 128
George Springer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .340 – ISO: .150 – wRC+: 107
Hank Conger – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .400 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .307 – wRC+: 158

Secondary Plays:

Colby Rasmus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .281 – ISO: .228 – wRC+: 100
Evan Gattis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .279 – ISO: .219 – wRC+: 101
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .307 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .106 – wRC+: 93

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST

Chicago White Sox					Kansas City
			Erik Johnson					Johnny Cueto
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-201)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.333	1.105	0.468	0.077	SP vs. Left	0.194	0.56	0.253	0.243
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.599	0.274	0.246	SP vs. Right	0.212	0.635	0.279	0.232
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R		Batter Splits			KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erik Johnson – Erik “with a K” Johnson makes his first start of the season. He has been excellent at AAA this season with 136 K’s in 132 innings, but in his brief past major league experience he was hit hard. He could have a future in the league, but coming up to face this difficult Royals lineup is not a place to take a shot on him. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 68 – SIERA: 4.69 – ERA: 4.50 – K%: 14.4% – BB%: 8.2% – HR/9: 1.06

Salaries: $4,600 FD, $4,200 DK

Johnny Cueto – The difficult matchups for Chris Archer and Madison Bumgarner appear to move Johnny Cueto towards the top of the list of cash game options today, but I’m not so sure that is correct. He has been hit hard for three straight starts, allowing 16 runs in his last 17 innings. His 3.61 SIERA (3.82 over the past month) shows that maybe he’s not quite the ace that his reputation suggests. I love the low walk rate, but that’s really the only thing about him that is elite. He does make a decent cash game play on sites where the win is worth paying for, but I’m not really considering him at all in tournaments. Pitcher Rating – 8

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 177 – SIERA: 3.61 – ERA: 3.04 – K%: 21.7% – BB%: 4.8% – HR/9: 0.81

Salaries: $10,900 FD, $9,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

As much as I’m not really a fan of Johnny Cueto, I can’t recommend playing hitters against him.

Secondary Plays:

Kansas City

The 10 major league starts from Erik Johnson in 2013-2014 showed very rough numbers against left-handed batters with a .447 wOBA allowed. He’s been so much better in the minors, that I don’t expect those sort of troubles long term, but Royals bats are definitely I play today, beginning with the lefties

Elite Plays:

Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .196 – wRC+: 152
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .348 – OBP: .357 – ISO: .176 – wRC+: 124
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .241 – wRC+: 146

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .405 – ISO: .188 – wRC+: 139
Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .342 – OBP: .349 – ISO: .145 – wRC+: 117
Salvador Perez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .302 – ISO: .191 – wRC+: 107

Arizona at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST

Arizona					Chicago Cubs
			Rubby De La Rosa					Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.305	0.897	0.386	0.147	SP vs. Left	0.255	0.712	0.31	0.178
SP vs. Right	0.23	0.669	0.294	0.215	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.64	0.285	0.194
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rubby De La Rosa – It’s been a wild ride with De La Rosa this season, he’s flashed his upside on multiple occasions, but also thrown 11 starts allowing four or more runs and has gotten into trouble with the home run ball. His big weakness is left-handed batters, and the Cubs have enough good ones, in addition to a bit of wind blowing at Wrigley Field, that he is an easy avoid today. Pitcher Rating – 4

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 167 – SIERA: 4.05 – ERA: 4.46 – K%: 18.7% – BB%: 7.1% – HR/9: 1.51

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $7,200 DK

Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks is a solid, yet unspectacular pitcher with an average strikeout rate and a ground ball lean. He fits into the “better in real life than fantasy” category. It’s been a while since he’s put up a start worthy of a play on a fantasy roster. You’re basically hoping for six innings, six strikeouts, three runs, and a win. With a little bit of wind blowing out to center and some better pitchers on the mound, he’s not high on my list. However, his price is pretty likable at most sites so he’s not completely off my radar as an SP2. Pitcher Rating – 6

Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 147 – SIERA: 3.57 – ERA: 4.15 – K%: 20.8% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 0.86

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Hendricks is a similar pitcher against both right and left-handed batters. He is not dominant but doesn’t have a big weakness either. I wouldn’t target these hitters heavily, but they don’t need to be completely avoided as their stronger hitters always carry significant upside.

Elite Plays

Paul Goldschmidt – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .408 – OBP: .433 – ISO: .235 – wRC+: 157
David Peralta – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .388 – OBP: .371 – ISO: .232 – wRC+: 144

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pollock – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .368 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .173 – wRC+: 130
Ender Inciarte – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .345 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .116 – wRC+: 114

Chicago Cubs

Rubby De La Rosa has some of the biggest splits you’ll see. He is allowing just a .261 wOBA to right-handed batters with a 23% strikeout rate and a 58% ground ball rate. However, against left-handed batters, he allows a .400 wOBA with a 15% strikeout rate and a 42% ground ball rate. That is a long way of saying you can play the Cubs left-handed batters today.

Elite Plays

Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .390 – OBP: .379 – ISO: .270 – wRC+: 148
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .352 – ISO: .211 – wRC+: 124
Dexter Fowler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .333 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .182 – wRC+: 109
Miguel Montero – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .331 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .189 – wRC+: 108

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .373 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .214 – wRC+: 137

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