NBA Preseason: Saturday, October 15th
Greetings Grinders! The NBA Preseason rolls on tonight with an action-packed seven game slate. Before we dive into the slate I wanted to say that Inspyr has been doing a great job on his write ups this week. I’ve managed to cash in each of the slates I’ve played using mostly his analysis. Hopefully I can continue the string of great advice.
If you haven’t been playing preseason, I’ll mention some general strategy thoughts. The pricing has been very soft on FanDuel, so you want to simply play guys who will score the highest number of points. You shouldn’t have a lot of slaary remaining on FanDuel unless you are intentionally trying to be different.
Over on DraftKings, the pricing has been slightly sharper. You’ll need at least a couple punt plays. Below, I mostly mention those type of punt plays. I’m hoping you can select the stars you want to play and hopefully, I’ve given you enough value to make it work. If you want to do some of your own research, I’m providing a copy of my NBA Preseason Google Doc. If you click on that link, you can make yourself a copy which will allow you to sort and filter. The second tab also include Defense versus Position (DVP) data for the current preseason.
Without further ado, let’s get right into it. We have a lot to cover. If any major news breaks, I’ll try to update this article as soon as possible. The best way to get last-minute news quickly is to follow me on Twitter. I’ll retweet any relevant news I see on that site.
Washington at Sacramento
Wizards
Sacramento DVP: PG (15), SG (2), SF (16), PF (9), C (10)
Injuries: Ian Mahinmi (O), Bradley Beal (O), Jason Smith (O), Otto Porter (O)
Projected Starters: John Wall, Tomas Satoransky, Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
Elite Plays: John Wall, Kelly Oubre
Secondary Plays: Tomas Satoransky
The Wizards will be without both Otto Porter and Bradley Beal tonight. John Wall is expected to play 20-24 minutes in his return to Kentucky. No, that isn’t a typo. The game is being played in Lexington, Kentucky. I don’t love Wall’s price, but I’m expecting him to put on a show for the fans. Wall has only played two games this preseason (16 and 19 minutes), and he’s scored 18.75 and 32.5 FDP. Wall isn’t my top guy, but he’s an option.
The guy I really love here is Kelly Oubre. He’ll draw the start at SF. He’s played over 24 minutes in every single game. He’s only had one dud game (13.1 FDP against PHI) the rest he’s scored 20 or more. He’s an easy plug-and-play at SF tonight.
The other player I have interest in tonight is Tomas Satoransky. He’s a secondary play because I’m expecting him to start at SG. His minutes have been all over the place at 31, 40, 18, and 12 through four games. In the two higher minute games he scored 23 and 29.2 FDP. The other two games he scored 12 and 10 FDP.
Kings
Wizards DVP: PG (6), SG (14), SF (28), PF (12), C (13)
Projected Starters: Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Gay, Demarcus Cousins, Kosta Koufos
Injuries: N/A
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: DeMarcus Cousins, Darren Collison, Arron Afflalo,
It’s really tempting to chase the big games several Kings posted on Thursday. Darren Collison scored 36.3 FDP, Rudy Gay 45.3 and Anthony Tolliver 31.2. All three of those guys played over 30 minutes in that game with Gay playing 37. The Kings oddly used just nine players and of course DeMarcus Cousins sat out. Assuming Cousins plays tonight, it changes the entire outlook. I’m happy to let others chase points here. For example, Afflalo seems unlikely to play 38 minutes and take 11 shots. I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t alert you to what happened Thursday, but that doesn’t make me want to use the Kings in this matchup. That was the Lakers, and these are the Wizards.
Detroit at Philadelphia
Detroit
Philadelphia DVP: PG (26), SG (19), SF (20), PF (27), C (15)
Injuries: Reggie Jackson (O)
Projected Starters: Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris, Henry Ellenson Andre Drummond
Elite Plays: Andre Drummond, Ish Smith
Secondary Plays: Tobias Harris
This is one of the better games to target tonight. The 76ers allow the most total fantasy points per game and offer a plus matchup at pretty much every position. The Pistons rested several of their starters on Thursday which means they should be at full strength tonight. Coach Van Gundy has not been shy about riding his guys heavily in preseason. Andre Drummond played the most minutes of any player last preseason, and in the two games he’s played this year, he was on the floor for 24 and 36 minutes. Ish Smith has also played plenty with 27, 25, and 30 minutes through three games. Tobias Harris even has a similar minute pattern with 27, 30 and 32 minutes played.
The reason I made Harris a secondary play above is that he’s more expensive than Oubre. That makes him an excellent GPP pivot, though. Smith is an elite play because of his cheap price and because the Pistons are pretty limited at PG with Reggie Jackson out. Drummond is an elite play because he always destroys Philadelphia. In four regular season games against the Sixers last year, his DK points were: 51, 54, 37, 41.8. He only played between 26 and 32 minutes in those games, and he could actually see similar volume tonight.
Philadelphia
Detroit DVP: PG (18), SG (10), SF (15), PF (18), C (16)
Injuries: Nerlens Noel (O), Ben Simmons (O), Jahlil Okafor (O), Jerryd Bayless (O)
Projected Starters: Sergio Rodriguez, Gerald Henderson, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
Elite Plays: Joel Embiid, Sergio Rodriguez
Secondary Plays: Richaun Holmes
The 76ers announced this morning that Sergio Rodriguez will start at PG instead of T.J. McConnell. Coach Brown said the move is strictly so that he can evaluate Rodriguez with the starters. That’s enough of a bump for Rodriguez to make him an elite play. He’s just $4100 on DraftKings. Rodriguez’s minutes have fluctuated through five games, but he hasn’t played fewer than 18 in any of them. In the game the played the most minutes (27 at Cleveland), he scored 33.4 FDP. The others were rather disappointing totals of 11.4, 14.3, 8.4, and 10.9. This play comes with some risk, but there’s certainly upside.
Rodriguez isn’t the top play in this game, though. That honor goes to Joel Embiid. The 76ers announced that they will increase his minutes limit to 18 tonight. Embiid has been highly effective so far this preseason, playing around 13 minutes per contest. In his last three games, he scored 27.4, 20 and 16.8 FDP. He’ll allow you to fill your center spot on DraftKings for just $4700 tonight.
As far as the rest of the 76ers go, I mostly just have interest in Richaun Holmes. That’s strictly for “Narrative Street” purposes; today is Holmes’s birthday. He’s obviously just a secondary play, though, as the 76ers are starting to get people back and Holmes price is getting too high.
Boston at New York
Boston
New York DVP: PG (1), SG (30), SF (14), PF (28), C (8)
Injuries: Kelly Olynyk (O)
Projected Starters: Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, Al Horford
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: Jaylen Brown
The Celtics are always a tough team to predict. In every game this preseason, they’ve used at least 14 players. The only player to even reach 28 minutes was Avery Bradley and that only happened once. The Knicks are not a bad matchup at all though. The usage is just too tough to predict. If I were to play one of the starters, it would be Al Horford. He has 28.1 and 26.8 FDP in his last two games. The problem is that Joakim Noah will make his Knicks debut, so I have to downgrade Horford here.
That mainly leaves me looking at the bench for production. The one name that stick out is Jaylen Brown. He has played at least 21 minutes in every game. He had one bad game (12.1 FDP) but the rest have been clustered between 17 and 19. He’s nothing special, but he’ll let you fill SF for just $4400 on DraftKings.
Knicks
Boston DVP: PG (8), SG (26), SF (4), PF (19), C (17)
Injuries: Derrick Rose (O)
Probable Starters: Brandon Jennings, Courtney Lee, Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis
The Knicks will be without Derrick Rose again tonight, as he’s in Los Angeles sorting out a lawsuit. Joakim Noah is expected to make his Knicks debut tonight, though. In general, I don’t like using players against a full-strength Celtics team. The only Knicks that really interest me are Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. I’d mostly only play them on FanDuel, though, as their prices on DraftKings are about $1,000 too high in this matchup. They are always capable of going off, but we can get the same expected production elsewhere for a lot less.
Minnesota at Miami
Minnesota
Miami DVP: PG (14), SG (16), SF (9), PF (30), C (2)
Injuries: Nikola Pekovic (O)
Projected Starters: Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns
Elite Plays: Zach Lavine
Secondary Plays: Karl-Anthony Towns, Shabazz Muhammad
This game is being played in Louisville, Kentucky. There’s some possible Narrative Street here for Towns, who went to college at the University of Kentucky. At his last job in Chicago, Coach Tom Thibodeau was known for running his players into the ground. So far, Thibodeau has played his Timberwolves starters 20-28 minutes. I’m sure I’ll see some love for Karl-Anthony Towns across the industry. Miami has the second-best DVP to centers so far this preseason. Oddly, they are the worst against PF. I think they are vulnerable inside, but it’s hard to stomach $8400 on DraftKings when I could have Drummond for pretty much the same price.
If I’m using TimberwoIves, I would rather stick to the players who have been getting consistent minutes. Zach LaVine has played 24, 24, and 28 minutes and scored 17.9, 34.3, and 21.5 FDP. He gets elite status partially because of expected high ownership and partially because he’s unlikely to let you down in a big way. Shabazz Muhammad is a secondary play because of other options at SF. He’s very cheap at just $4500 on DraftKings. He’s played at least 20 minutes in every game and scored 17, 21.2, and 22.9 FDP. He’s unlikely to put up a win-you-a-GPP score, but he offers a relatively safe floor.
The last name I’ll mention here is Kris Dunn. He’s been absolutely pathetic in preseason shooting under 25%. He’s still managed to score 14.4, 21.3, and 21.3 FDP in 16, 26 and 24 minutes. If his shot ever starts falling, he could put up a nice score. He’s not even a secondary play tonight though because he’s a $5000 PG on DraftKings, and on FanDuel, several options will have a higher raw score.
Miami
Minnesota DVP: PG (5), SG (28), SF (2), PF (22), C (19)
Injuries: Josh Richardson (O), Josh McRoberts (O), Luke Babbitt (O), Willie Reed (O), Beno Udrih (O), Hassan Whiteside (O), Goran Dragic (O), Udonis Haslem (O), Tyler Johnson
Projected Starters: Briante Weber, Dion Waiters Justise Winslow, Derrick Williams, Keith Benson
Elite Plays:
Secondary Plays: Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow
Update: Tyler Johnson is out
Update: Whiteside, Dragic and Haslem will rest tonight. I’m expecting Weber to start at PG but I think that Tyler Johnson will see some minutes there. I like Johnson quite a bit, Waiters is a slightly better play now, and Justice Winslow gets a slight bump as well.
We have to be extremely careful with the Heat tonight. This is the second night of a back-to-back, and their beat writer has already indicated that some starters could sit. I’m sure I’ll have to revisit this once we get confirmation of who is/isn’t playing. When we do find out, it should also change things on the Timberwolves’ side of this game a well. If several players sit, whoever is left standing may instantly vault to elite status.
If no one sits, I’m mostly just interested in Tyler Johnson. He had a huge game last night with 15 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists. That effort was off the bench with Waiters starting. That’s what I would prefer to see again tonight. The secondary plays above are based on players that could possibly play when others sit. Once I get a better idea who is in, I’ll update the logic behind playing Winslow, Waiters, Dragic, or Whiteside.
Memphis at Houston
Grizzlies
Houston DVP: PG (3), SG (21), SF (3), PF (6), C (5)
Injuries: Chandler Parsons (O), Tony Allen (O), Brandan Wright, Jarell Martin
Projected Starters: Mike Conley, Vince Carter, James Ennis, JaMychal Green, Marc Gasol
Elite Plays: Mike Conley, Marc Gasol
Secondary Plays: Zach Randolph,
If you care about preseason stats, these two teams allow the second-fewest and fourth-fewest points per game. I can believe that Memphis has a good defense, but I have a hard time believing Mike D’Antoni has suddenly convinced the Rockets that defense is important.
What I like about the Grizzlies tonight is they are priced affordably. Mike Conley has played 17, 22, and 26 minutes and scored 19, 33.4, and 31.9 FDP. As long as he gets a full complement of minutes tonight, he’s a great option on DraftKings, where he’s just $6600. I even like him a little bit on FanDuel because his raw point total should be higher than most of the punt plays.
With Marc Gasol, we also need to make sure he’s looking at 25+ minutes. Through four games, he’s played 13, 15, 20, and 25 minutes. In those games, he’s scored 11.9, 15.7, 28.4, and 38.9. The latter two games were against PHI and OKC. Those are teams that should play at a similar pace to Houston this year.
Zach Randolph gets secondary play status tonight. The Grizzlies plan to use Randolph off the bench this season, which oddly might make him more playable. He’ll have higher usage off the bench and theoretically get a better matchup. In his last two games, he played 17 and 23 minutes and scored 28.1 and 17.6 FDP. The price is just a little too high here to make him an elite play.
Rockets
Memphis DVP: PG (10), SG (9), SF (25), PF (3), C (22)
Injuries: Patrick Beverly (O)
Projected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela
Elite Plays: James Harden
Secondary Plays: Trevor Ariza
The Rockets are a pretty easy team to predict. Their offense runs through James Harden. On FanDuel, there’s no reason not to play James Harden. His worst game so far was 30.2 FDP in 24 minutes. On DraftKings, $10,500 is a lot to pay, but you know you are getting close to 30 points. Whether or not I play Harden will depend how comfortable I am with the value plays on this slate, but it’s certainly doable.
As much as I want to find another Rocket to play, the rest either don’t consistently play enough minutes or are priced way too high. I wouldn’t mind Ryan Anderson, but he’s priced like he still plays for the Pelicans and Anthony Davis is out. I also don’t mind Trevor Ariza, but we honestly don’t need any more SF options. Ariza has played 20, 27, 34, and 22 minutes. He’s never been a really strong DFS option in heavy minutes though. His totals in those four games were 15.7, 20.4, 14.1 and 17.8
Chicago at Milwaukee
Chicago
Milwaukee DVP: PG (22), SG (15), SF (8), PF (23), C (7)
Injuries: Jimmy Butler (O), Dwyane Wade (O), Tony Snell (O), Denzel Valentine (O), Taj Gibson, Rajon Rondo
Projected Starters: Isaiah Canaan, Jerian Grant, Paul Zipser, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez
Elite Plays: Nikola Mirotic,
Secondary Plays: Spencer Dinwiddie, Bobby Portis, Isaiah Canaan, Paul Zipser
The Bulls are playing the second half of a back-to-back tonight and plan to sit their starters except for Robin Lopez. I’m expecting Isaiah Canaan to start in place of Rondo, but it could also be Spencer Dinwiddie. It has already been announced, though, that Paul Zipser will start at SF. If you are trying to fit in James Harden, the Bulls should offer plenty of cheap options.
Nikola Mirotic is my top option for the Bulls. Mirotic had a pretty terrible game last night but still managed to eclipse 20 fantasy points. The Bulls need someone to score, and Mirotic has taken at least seven shots in every game. We saw last Saturday what Mirotic is capable of when he scored 32.8 FDP in 26 minutes versus the Pacers.
I’m aware that Paul Zipser went absolutely nuts last night with 18/5/2 in 26 minutes. He’s an option on DK for the absolute minimum of $4000, but I have some concerns that the Bucks starters will have no issue shutting him down.
By my count, the Bulls have about 10 players available tonight. Everyone who is available is worth a look as a secondary play with the exception of Robin Lopez, who I don’t expect to play heavy minutes.
Milwaukee
Chicago DVP: PG (28), SG (12), SF (7), PF (17), C (26)
Injuries: Matthew Dellavedova, Rashad Vaughn
Projected Starters: Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo, John Henson, Thon Maker, Jabari Parker
Elite Plays: Jabari Parker, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays: Thon Maker, Greg Monroe
Bucks Coach Jason Kidd is sometimes known to do strange this with his rotations. If you play any Buck other than Parker or Antetokounmpo, make sure to check their status. As long as the Bucks starters are expected to get 25 minutes, I absolutely love them against the Bulls backups. If you look at the Bulls’ DVP above they weren’t exactly stingy even with the starters on the court.
Antetokounmpo is an elite play but there is all kinds of value at SF tonight. That makes his price of $8900 on DraftKings very hard to stomach. Fire away on FanDuel, though. Jabari Parker on the other hand fills a PF position that is a bit thin. $6500 on DraftKings is a fair price to play for Parker. He’s played 24+ minutes in every game and has FDP totals of 26.3, 31.2 and 17.
Last but not least, Thon Maker and Greg Monroe deserve a look. I’ll caution that when Thon Mkaer started the last game Greg Monroe saw just five minutes. In the two games before that, Monroe played 17 and 19. If Monroe is looking at 20+ minutes he should obliterate the Bulls’ backups. If Thon Maker starts I have some interest, but he’s scored just 4.9 and 13.8 FDP in the two games he played (19 and 21 minutes).
Golden State at Los Angeles Lakers
Warriors
Lakers DVP: PG (7), SG (17), SF (26), PF (14), C (28)
Injuries: Andre Iguodala, David West
Projected Starters: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia
Elite Plays: N/A
Secondary Plays: Klay Thompson, Patrick McCaw
This game presents a slight problem for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Every other game starts at 8:30 ET or sooner. This game starts at 10:00 ET. The Warriors are playing the second night of a back-to-back. They also played their starters more than normal last night in Denver. As of right now, the Warriors have only ruled out Andre Iguodala and David West. I’m expecting more starters to get ruled out or the starters to end up playing 20 minutes or less. The problem here is that if you use a player in this game and they get ruled out your only swap options are also in this game. I might be willing to pay “(player-popup)Klay Thompson”:/players/klay-thompson-13315’s price but it’s difficult to use either Curry or Durant knowing that if you swap them out you’ll have to leave quite a bit of salary remaining.
Until we get clarity on how much the starters will play I don’t see any elite plays here. As I mentioned above I don’t mind Klay Thompson though as a secondary play. He’s played 21, 25 and 19 minutes in three games and scored 31.2, 17.4, and 17 FDP. If several starters get ruled out I like Patrick McCaw. In the one game he played over 22 minutes he scored 26 FDP. In the other two (16 and 19 mintes) he scored 10.7 and 7.5. There’s obviously risk here but if you need someone to swap in he’s an option.
Lakers
Golden State DVP: PG (2), SG (18), SF (22), PF (1), C (30)
Injuries: Lou Williams (O)
Projected Starters: D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Luol Deng, Julius Randle, Timofey Mozgov
Elite Plays: DeAngelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson
Secondary Plays: Julius Randle
What the Warriors do with their starters will ultimately change our outlook for the Lakers as well. With that said, it’s not a huge difference. I like D’Angelo Russell regardless of what happens. He’s taken at least 14 shots in every single game except the first. Two of his five games were 16 FDP or under but the other three were 31.3, 42.7, and 50.7. He has the upside tonight and you know he’s not scared to shoot the ball.
With Lou Williams out I also like Jordan Clarkson. four of his five games have been over 20 FDP with a high of 27.4. The Warriors are 18th against SG this preseason. The other Laker I like is Julius Randle. He has played 28, 35, and 32 minutes in the Lakers’ last three games. He has 27.3, 36.1 and 23.5 FDP in those games.