NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 15
We crushed the analysis last week, but I had only a mediocre DFS day in tournaments. My main lineup flopped, while all other lineups managed to cash. My main regrets were: 1) Not mentioning we should upgrade running options due to the snow in Buffalo. 2) Not having Jamaal Williams on 100 percent of my lineups, as a post-hindsight obvious smash play, despite whispers from beat writers implying otherwise.
Week 15 is a very tough slate on paper, with a ton of different offenses and players to like. I had a tough time writing this article, feeling there were so many players in a similar value tier I could have written about instead. So rather than just write up two players at each position and adding a longer update as I usually do, I decided to cover more ground writing featuring more players in general but keeping things more concise. As always, I’ll try to answer all of your questions in the comments section up until Sunday morning.
Excluding the Saturday, Sunday night, and Monday night games, here are some of my favorite tournament plays this week:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Quarterback is an especially tough position on the main slate. I don’t see much value outside of Nick Foles but there are a number of equally great plays among the higher-priced tier. Here are the players and games I’ll be targeting:
Tom Brady [DK: QB1, FD: QB1] / Ben Roethlisberger [DK: QB5, FD: QB6] – Brady averages 324.7 passing yards, 3.14 passing touchdowns, and 0.0 interceptions over his last seven games against Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense is reeling following the losses of Joe Haden (game-time decision) and Ryan Shazier (out), ranking fifth-worst against expectation to opposing quarterbacks over their last five games. I’m hoping Brady draws low ownership after last week’s primetime dud, but I’m not banking on it. All of Roethlisberger’s 10 highest-scoring games have come at home since 2014, and he improves by +8.6 fantasy points per game and +20.2 in passer rating in home games over this stretch. He’s finished as a top-two quarterback in each of his last three home games, while New England ranks fourth-worst to quarterbacks over expectation this year. Pace is especially strong in this game as well, considering the Patriots rank second in total plays per game. I imagine the bulk of money will be spent on these quarterbacks and their weapons this week.
Russell Wilson [DK: QB2, FD: QB4] / Jared Goff [DK: QB9, FD: QB8] – On paper, the Rams don’t stand out as good matchup for Wilson, ranking fifth-best against expectation to the quarterback position this season. Still, matchups are apparently irrelevant at this point for fantasy’s highest-scoring player, after Wilson just posted a top-five week against Jacksonville. This could be one of the highest-scoring game of the week, considering the Rams and Seahawks both rank top-five in points scored since Week 5, and pace of play should be excellent. Jared Goff is also in play, though I question whether he has tournament winning-upside. He gets his top weapon in Robert Woods back, while an already ailing Seattle defense lists all of Bobby Wagner (LB), K.J. Wright (LB), Michael Bennett (DE), Kam Chancellor (SS), Nazair Jones (DT), and Earl Thomas (FS) as non-practice participants as of Thursday. He’s also fantasy’s No. 3 quarterback since Week 9.
Cam Newton [DK: QB7, FD: QB7] / Aaron Rodgers [DK: QB4, FD: QB3] – The Packers rank fourth-worst in opposing passer rating this season and fourth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation over their last five games, and are now down to third and fourth-string cornerbacks as starters. Still, if rostering Newton, it’s not for what he does as a passer. He’s eclipsed over 200 passing yards just once in his last six games, despite facing some of the league’s softest pass defenses over this stretch. Rodgers has the benefit of being one of the greatest real-life and fantasy quarterbacks of all-time, but I’m cautious regarding his upside in his first game back following a broken collarbone. I could see the team limiting him as a runner and outside of the pocket, and instead leaning heavily on Jamaal Williams. I like this gamestack significantly less than the first two.
Drew Brees [DK: QB6, FD: QB4] – The Jets rank worst over expectation to opposing quarterbacks this season, as well as ranking worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback. Looking back at the history of quarterbacks when favored by 16 points or more, it seems likely Brees will either bust or throw for something like 220 yards and four touchdowns. Given the success of New Orleans’ running game this season, I’m more inclined to think it’s the former.
Case Keenum [DK: QB10, FD: QB12] – Keenum ranks fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game since Week 8, and gets set to face off against a Bengals defense that has been getting gashed lately, and has Vontaze Burfict (LB), Dre Kirkpatrick (CB), and Darqueze Dennard (CB) all listed as questionable for Week 15. The Bengals rank second-worst over expectation to opposing quarterbacks over their last five games, surrendering better than expected days to all of Marcus Mariota, Brock Osweiler, Ben Roethlisberger (on the road), Deshone Kizer, and Mitchell Trubisky. Kyle Rudolph is unlikely to play, but this should keep targets concentrated to his wide receivers. I suspect I’ll have heavy exposure to either Adam Thielen or Latavius Murray on a large percentage of my lineups.
Jimmy Garoppolo [DK: QB8, FD: QB14] – Garoppolo ranks as our fourth-highest-graded passer over the past two weeks, and ranks sixth in total passing yards over this stretch. He draws a Tennessee Titans defense ranking third-worst in fantasy points per dropback allowed, and is a home favorite. Still, due to a lack of red zone weapons outside of Carlos Hyde on the ground, I’m skeptical regarding his touchdown-upside.
Nick Foles [DK: QB15, FD: Min. Price] – The Giants rank third-worst in opposing passer rating and fifth-worst in fantasy points per dropback. The Giants also lead all defenses in plays of 30 or more yards surrendered to opposing receivers, with seven more than the next-closest defense. New York will still be without top-graded cornerback Janoris Jenkins and likely Eli Apple. Slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie played on just 40 percent of the team’s snaps in Week 15, and their top-graded defender in coverage (safety Landon Collins) is doubtful. In a week where it’s tough to find value outside of the running back position, I can see myself having heavy exposure to Foles given the matchup and quarterback-whisperer Doug Pederson’s excellent gameplanning this season.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell [DK: RB1, FD: RB1] – If forced to choose, and I’m sure I’ll have to, I like Bell more than Antonio Brown or any other high-priced option this week. He’s averaging 22.4 expected fantasy points per game, which is the most of any player this past decade. The Patriots are allowing the most yards per carry and the fifth-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. In their last game, Bell saw a carry on six of his 11 snaps before exiting with an injury. Prior to that, he averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game against New England, despite not scoring a touchdown in either of those two games.
Mark Ingram [DK: RB5, FD: RB5] – I’ve lost some money fading Alvin Kamara in recent weeks, but still would prefer to roster Ingram this week. Ingram ranks third among running backs in fantasy points since Adrien Peterson’s departure, and totals 10 of the team’s 12 running back opportunities inside the five-yard-line over this span. The matchup looks tough on paper, but I think that matters little when a team is favored by 16 points.
Todd Gurley [DK: RB4, FD: RB4] – Gurley has a brutal matchup against the Seahawks, but Gurley also leads all running backs in fantasy points per game, and just totaled 28.5 against the defense ranking second-best in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. He’s not a better play than Bell, but is still a strong play when factoring in ownership this week.
Leonard Fournette [DK: RB6, FD: RB6] – Fournette’s health is a concern, but if he plays, he seems poised for a monster game. The Jaguars are 11.5-point favorites against a Houston defense allowing 4.91 yards per carry (most) to opposing running backs over the past five weeks. Over his last two games, Fournette has seen 44 carries and 10 targets, while hitting season-highs in snap share. With the injury concerns, I’m dropping Fournette down a tier. If he’s out, Chris Ivory is a fine salary saver, and should see the majority of the work.
Injury-Related Values – Assuming Damien Williams, Joe Mixon, or Ameer Abdullah are inactive, Kenyan Drake, Gio Bernard, and Theo Riddick are amazing plays. I’ll edit later when given more clarity. With Adrien Peterson on I.R., Kerwynn Williams should be locked in to 16 to 20 carries against a Redskins defense surrendering the ninth-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. He’s a good, but not exceptional play, due to the state of the offense as a whole and minimal receiving work.
Mike Davis [DK: RB39, FD: RB28] – Davis has played in three games this season, but just nine full quarters, having to leave two games early due to injury. Per four quarters, he’s averaging 15.4 carries, 3.6 targets, and 100.0 total yards, with the bulk of this coming in tough matchups against Philadelphia and Jacksonville. If he’s fully healthy this week, he’s a great play up against a Rams defense allowing the second-most yards per carry and third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Samaje Perine [DK: RB21, FD: RB11] – Byron Marshall was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, joining fellow running backs Chris Thompson, Rob Kelley, and Keith Marshall. Perine was already averaging 14.9 expected fantasy points per game over the last four weeks (sixth-most at the position), but should begin serving in an even greater bell-cow capacity following Marshall’s injury. He draws a tough matchup this week, but should be held afloat by positive gamescript (favored by 4.5 points) and heavy usage. He’s a terrific play on DraftKings this week.
Jamaal Williams [DK: RB7, FD: RB7] – Since Week 11, Williams ranks third in actual fantasy points per game (23.5) and second in expected fantasy points per game (20.4), running back snap share (96 percent), and running back touch share (92 percent). The matchup is tough and he’s now more appropriately priced, but I suspect Williams sees a large workload again, remaining somewhat cautious in Aaron Rodgers’ return to action. He’s still a value this week.
Latavius Murray [DK: RB19, FD: RB17] – Remember that injury-plagued Cincinnati defense we brought up earlier? They rank worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing running backs over their last five games. They’ve also been more susceptible to running backs on the ground (rather than through the air) in recent weeks, giving up the fourth most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs in Week 9. Over that span, Murray has seen eight of the team’s nine carries inside of the five-yard-line, which bodes well for him in a game Minnesota is favored by 11.0 and projected to score the fourth-most points of the week.
Rex Burkhead [DK: RB8, FD: RB13] – Burkhead has quietly assumed what looks to be 100-percent of the Mike Gillislee role (goal-line back) and about 70 percent of the James White role (passing-down back). Since Week 8, Burkhead leads all New England running backs in targets (27) and red-zone opportunities (14) and ranks second in carries (49). Over the last five weeks of the season, Burkhead ranks seventh among all running backs in both expected and actual fantasy points per game, as well as third in expected touchdowns (4.5). With the second-highest implied point total, up against a Steelers defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing running backs over their past five games, he’s still a strong value despite the recent price increase.
Alex Collins [DK: RB17, FD: RB12] – Collins has been one of the league’s most efficient running backs in the league this season, ranking third-best in yards per carry, seventh-best in elusive rating, and eighth-best in PFF grade. Volume has been strong as well, averaging 17.3 carries and 2.8 targets per game since Week 11. While Cleveland ranks second-best in yards per carry allowed, Collins should have plenty of positive gamescript to run behind (as 7.0-point favorites) as well as plenty of scoring opportunities thanks to Cleveland’s stumbling and turnover-prone offense. My concern with Collins is that he’s seen just 23 percent of the team’s running back opportunities inside the 10-yard-line this season, with that number improving to just 40 percent over the team’s last six games.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown [DK: WR1, FD: WR1] – Brown is on pace for a season that would rank third-best all-time in receiving yards and eighth-best among wide receivers in fantasy points. Though the narrative is that the Patriots sell out to stop an opposing team’s top offensive weapon, Brown averages 17.2 fantasy points per game in his career against New England. He’s still far-and-away the top receiver in my projections this week.
Adam Thielen [DK: WR3, FD: WR6] – The case for Thielen is an easy one, ranking top-seven in targets per game, expected fantasy points per game, and actual fantasy points per game. Cincinnati’s slot cornerback Darqueze Dennard and left cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick are questionable for Week 15, which is where Thielen runs 67 percent of his routes, and tight end Kyle Rudolph (5.5 targets per game, 1.15 red zone targets per game) is doubtful. It’s also worth noting Kendall Wright ran 74 percent of his routes from the slot last week against the Bengals, and turned 10 targets into 10 catches for 107 yards, after averaging 28.5 yards per game heading into the week.
Jordy Nelson [DK: WR12, FD: WR12] – We’ve had a lot of success in this column going out of our way to prioritize historic quarterback to receiver splits over recent production, and that will be no difference this week. Outside of Week 2, when Nelson played on just seven snaps, Nelson averages 19.2 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons in games Rodgers has started and finished (Davante Adams averages 15.3), which trails only Antonio Brown over this stretch. Adams is still a fine play, but I’ll take a stand and roll with Nelson this week. Carolina is also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers over the past six weeks.
Brandin Cooks [DK: WR5, FD: WR8] – Pittsburgh is giving up the most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing wide receivers over their last five games, and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on deep targets since losing Joe Haden. This bodes especially well for Cooks, who ranks fourth in deep targets per game.
Robert Woods [WR: DK19, FD: WR20] / Cooper Kupp [WR: DK14, FD: WR23] – Over Seattle’s last four games, they’re allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers and the second-most fantasy points per game to right wide receivers. Over their last eight games, that moves to still 10th- and fourth-most, respectively. Kupp runs 60 percent of his routes from the slot, while Woods runs 57 percent of his routes from Jared Goff right. While both are in play, I’d lean Woods, who ranks 14th at the position in fantasy points per game.
Jamison Crowder [DK: WR20, FD: WR17] – Crowder feels like one of the safest plays of the slate, with Ryan Grant questionable and Patrick Peterson likely shadowing Josh Doctson. Crowder is already averaging 9.2 targets per game over his last six games, and runs 75 percent of his routes from the slot, where the Cardinals are surrendering the 10th-most fantasy points per game.
Josh Gordon [DK: WR8, FD: WR7] – Gordon was mega-chalk last week, but shouldn’t be neglected this week despite the price hike. While the matchup looks tough on paper, the Ravens will be without our No. 13-graded cornerback Jimmy Smith. Baltimore ranks fourth-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation surrendered to opposing WR1s over their last five games, and Antonio Brown just torched Baltimore to the tune of 213 yards last week.
Devin Funchess [DK: WR10, FD: WR9] – While I don’t think Funchess is the priority play some are making him out to be, he does rank 10th in fantasy points per game since Week 9 and gets set to face a Green Bay defense ranking second-worst over expectation to opposing WR1s.
Marquise Goodwin [DK: WR15, FD: WR22] – Goodwin has cemented himself as the team’s WR1 under Garoppolo. Over the past two weeks, he totals 19 targets (10 more than the next-closest receiver), 14 receptions, and 205 yards. This week he draws a Tennessee defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s.
Dede Westbrook [DK: WR26, FD: WR35] – Westbrook ranks 14th among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game since his NFL debut, totaling 17.7 expected fantasy points more than Lee over this stretch. Westbrook also totals four more deep targets than Lee over this span, while Houston is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on deep targets.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski [DK: TE1, FD: TE1] – By all measures Gronkowski has a very difficult matchup this week, but it is worth noting two things. 1) He averages 25.5 fantasy points per game in five career games against the Steelers – almost just as good as Julio Jones’ ridiculous splits against Tampa Bay. 2) He’s Rob Gronkowski, and in a game the Patriots are projected to score 28.25 points.
Delanie Walker [DK: TE4, FD: TE4] – Last week was Walker’s first under 60 receiving yards since Week 6, and could draw low ownership in what looks like a tough matchup on paper (by fantasy points per game allowed), but hasn’t been as tough since San Francisco lost primary tight end defender Jaquiski Tartt. Walker has firmly cemented himself as the team’s primary receiver, and ranks second among all tight ends in expected fantasy points per game over the last five weeks of the season. Relative to recent opportunity and production, he’s still too cheap on both sites.
Zach Ertz [DK: TE2, FD: TE2] – Ertz draws the ultimate tight end flowchart defense in the Giants, who are allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Ertz totals 267.6 fantasy points over his last 16 games, which would have ranked third-best among all receivers last season. Of course, this was with an entirely different quarterback under center, and the change certainly dents his projection, but this has already been reflected in his Week 15 pricing on DraftKings, and maybe too much so. While I like Ertz, much of my exposure will hinge on Landon Collins’ Week 15 status (currently doubtful).
Jimmy Graham [DK: TE5, FD: TE3] – Graham will continue to be what he’s been all season – a low-floor, high-ceiling tournament play with heavy touchdown-upside (second among all receivers in expected touchdowns) but little else to offer. With that in mind, he’s probably still a little too cheap on DraftKings, relative to upside in what’s at worst a neutral matchup.
Charles Clay [DK: TE15, FD: TE13] – While I doubt I’ll personally go this route, if desperate for some savings in salary I’m fine with Clay up against a Miami defense ranking third-worst against expectation to opposing tight ends. While it’s already close, if DeAndre Hopkins sits out, Stephen Anderson clearly becomes my top value tight end yet again. UPDATE: With Jermaine Gresham out, I now have Ricky Seals-Jones well ahead of Clay and Anderson. He’s a great tournament play.