NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16
Don’t ask me how, after tinkering down to zero Todd Gurley come Sunday morning, but I won over $1,700 on $700 in entries in tournaments across both sites last week. I’ll take it.
At first glance this slate doesn’t appear to offer me a massive edge. I want to pay up at running back and down at wide receiver and tight end, but so will everyone else.
I usually only put about $350 in play on both sites, but this week I’m much more heavily invested with about $3,000 in play (tournaments only) across both sites. Again, nothing about this slate stands out as offering a massive edge, but I still think I have one this week. I expect most DFS players will be preoccupied with winter holidays this week, while I (unapologetically) have no life, and refuse to let Christmas get in the way of my DFS research.
Excluding the Saturday and Monday games, here are some of my favorite tournament plays this week (in no particular order, seriously):
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All references to team fantasy points allowed over expectation are based on this chart.
Note 3: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott [DK: QB11, FD: QB10] – If left tackle Tyron Smith is active (knee), Prescott quickly becomes my top quarterback play of the slate. Seattle has given up 72 points over the past two weeks. This is the most they’ve surrendered over any two-game stretch since 2010. It makes sense too, when looking at their injury report and seeing names like Nazair Jones, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, and Michael Bennett dealing with injuries (and, of course, Richard Sherman on IR). Prescott also gets Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup, which should help, considering Prescott has averaged only 12.8 fantasy points per game in his absence. While Elliott was in the lineup, however, Prescott had finished as a QB1 in nine of his previous 10 games, and top-three in three of his last four games.
Matthew Stafford [DK: QB9, FD: QB6] – Cincinnati ranks second-worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing quarterbacks across the last five weeks of the season. While they also rank dead-last to opposing running backs over this stretch, Detroit has also had no running game to speak of all season.
Cincinnati has three linebackers and four members of their secondary listed on their injury report this week, while Stafford ranks fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game since Week 6. I like Stafford’s wide receivers quite a bit this week, but haven’t yet figured out which one I prefer.
Other: Russell Wilson is always in play, and by all measures this matchup is more “good” than even “neutral”… Cam Newton draws a Buccaneers defense allowing the most points per game on the road this season, and is averaging 61.4 rushing yards per game since Week 6, which would rank 17th among running backs. He’s been far less efficient through the air over this stretch, but Tampa Bay also leads the league in passing yards allowed (while also giving up the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks). He’s probably the best quarterback play on DraftKings… Drew Stanton is definitely in play this week, at home up against a Giants defense ranking worst in opposing passer rating and second-worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback. He’s minimum priced on both sites and hit at least 15 fantasy points in his two starts. If New York’s highest-graded coverage defender (Landon Collins) is out this week, I like him even more… Philip Rivers is in the same spot Drew Brees was last week. Gamescript doesn’t work towards his favor, but otherwise the matchup looks strong with the Jets ranking third-worst over expectation to quarterbacks and bottom-five in opposing passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. Like with Brees last week, Rivers’ yardage total should be low, but his touchdown-upside remains high…
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara [DK: RB3, FD: RB3] – Kamara’s 2017 season is possibly the most-efficient running back season of all-time, ranking first of 315 qualifying running back seasons in yards and fantasy points scored per touch. While fantasy analysts have been calling for a regression all season, it hasn’t come yet, and is unlikely to come this week. Kamara leads all running backs in receiving fantasy points and would rank 23rd among all wide receivers. Atlanta is allowing the 3rd-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs after allowing the most last season.
Kareem Hunt [DK: RB2, FD: RB5] – Hunt saw a season-high in expected fantasy points last week with 29.6. Since Andy Reid relieved himself of play-calling duties, Hunt is averaging 19.8 expected fantasy points per game (fourth-most among running backs), after averaging just 13.7 across his prior 11 games. He’s also our third-highest-graded running back this season, and ranks third in missed tackles forced per touch. The Chiefs are favored by 10.0 at home, and Miami is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs.
Todd Gurley [DK: RB1, FD: RB1] – Gurley leads all players in fantasy points this season, and is on pace for the 19th-most by any running back all time. He totals 315 yards and six touchdowns over the past two weeks, against two teams ranking top-five in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Without even looking at who he is up against (oh okay, the Titans who are allowing the fifth-most receiving fantasy points to opposing running backs), he should be the top player in everyone’s projections this week in terms of raw points.
Ezekiel Elliott [DK: RB5, FD: RB5] – At the time of his suspension, Elliott ranked fourth among running backs in routes run per game, second in touches per game, sixth in expected fantasy points per game, and second in actual fantasy points per game. The aforementioned injury-decimated Seahawks have surrendered 384 total yards and five touchdowns to opposing running backs over the past two weeks. Dallas is favored by 4.5 at home this week, and Elliott has the benefit of fresh legs (something that matters to me quite a bit at this point in the season) against a clearly beat-up defense.
Leonard Fournette [DK: RB7, FD: RB8] – The Jaguars are the league’s most run-heavy team in the league this season, while the 49ers have been run on at the highest rate in the league for three consecutive seasons. They rank last in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing running backs, after allowing the most fantasy points to the position in each of the two seasons prior. In Fournette’s last two healthy games, he saw career-highs in snap share and totaled 44 carries and 10 targets. He’s coming off of an injury-related absence, which makes him a little risky, but is still one of the top running back plays of the slate.
Melvin Gordon [DK: RB8, FD: RB3] – Gordon ranks fourth among running backs in expected fantasy points over the past four weeks (18.8), and is one of only two running backs (the other being Todd Gurley) to top at least 16.0 expected fantasy points in each of these weeks.
The Jets have been tough against the run this season, but could be without Leonard Williams (their No. 3-graded run defender) and Gordon will benefit from good gamescript, favored by 6.5 against the Bryce Petty-led Jets. That said, Austin Ekeler’s status (hand) will have a significant impact on my exposure to Gordon this week. If he’s active, I’ll pivot off of him some to a few of the other running backs listed above.
Dion Lewis [DK: RB14, FD: RB14] – Lewis is our fourth-highest-graded running back this season and ranks third-best in elusive rating. He’s also been our most difficult runner to bring down on first contact. While efficiency has been good all season, it should be good again this week against a Buffalo defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Volume should improve too with Rex Burkhead out, although it’s not a lock that Mike Gillislee doesn’t come in and vulture goal-line work and James White doesn’t assume all of Burkhead’s passing down work. If Gillislee is inactive, Lewis becomes probably my top value running back play on the slate. If Gillislee plays, I’ll pivot down some, and may even take some YOLO shots on him as a punt-play. While he still wouldn’t be a play I’d recommend to others (despite the revenge game narrative), it would allow me to regain some bragging rights over Evan Silva if I won a few thousand with him on one of my lineups.
Other – That’s it. No really, that’s it… Mike Davis is still probably one of my favorite value plays, for many of the same reasons I liked him last week, but it’s hard to get too excited after his eight-touch performance last week… Theo Riddick is a strong play if Ameer Abdullah is inactive, but that looks unlikely… One of Samaje Perine or C.J. Anderson may prove to be a strong value depending on which way gamescript goes, but it’s not something I’ll be chasing… Kenyan Drake remains in play, but I’m still looking for assurance from beat writers that he will remain in a bell cow workload following Damien Williams’ return from injury… Christian McCaffrey is improving in volume and efficiency, but I’m not trying to chase last week’s points, when he faced a Green Bay defense surrendering the most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (Tampa Bay ranks 19th)… Devonta Freeman is only in play (and would be a great play) if Tevin Coleman is out, but that’s unlikely… I can make a case for LeSean McCoy, but it’s hard to push him ahead of any of the running backs above for any reason other than projected ownership… Peyton Barber could be a value based on recent volume, but matchup and gamescript is enough for me to look elsewhere… Kerwynn Williams could be in play, favored at home against a Giants defense that has given up the most rushing yards to running backs this season, but he also hasn’t practiced all week. If he’s out, this could push one of his backups into contention, but it’s hard to get too excited about whichever third-stringer it might be…
Wide Receivers
High Priced Wide Receivers – It’s really hard to find a high-end wide receiver worth paying up for, but here are the ones I’m considering: Michael Thomas has seen nine, 14, and 11 targets and totals three touchdowns in the three games New Orleans has been without Coby Fleener. Fleener is on IR and Ted Ginn is still questionable for Week 16, while Thomas 26.5 fantasy points per game in three career games against Atlanta… Keenan Allen ranks second among wide receivers in fantasy points and targets since Week 11, and could see a target-bump with Hunter Henry out. No team has surrendered fewer fantasy points to slot wide receivers than the Jets over the past five weeks of the season, but I’m more inclined to chalk this up to variance than view Buster Skrine as a legitimate threat… Doug Baldwin draws a Dallas defense allowing the most fantasy points to slot wide receivers since their Week 6 bye. He’s a strong play, but matchups have been wholly irrelevant for him throughout his career… From 2015 up to Drew Stanton’s first start of the 2017 season, Larry Fitzgerald accounted for 40 percent of his passing yards and 100 percent of his passing touchdowns. Across his two starts this season, Fitzgerald has accounted for 30 percent of his pass attempts. Despite grading among our top-20 cornerbacks for four consecutive seasons, Giants slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has played on just 48 percent of the team’s snaps the past two weeks. The Giants rank bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to slot wide receivers over the course of the full season and over the last five weeks of the season… These are the higher priced wide receivers I’m looking at, but it’s doubtful I’ll be heavily invested in any of them…
Mike Evans [DK: WR11, FD: WR13] – Carolina is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers since Week 8, and rank fourth-*worst over expectation to WR1s over their last five games. We expect James Bradberry to shadow Evans this week, but Bradberry has surrendered the third-most yards of any cornerback this year. Evans has been more hit-or-miss this season, with lower volume than typical, but could be in for a larger workload with O.J. Howard out and DeSean Jackson not yet practicing this week (as of Thursday).
Robert Woods [DK: WR9, FD: WR21] – Woods is priced as a low-end WR2 on FanDuel, but has scored at least 16.0 fantasy points and has averaged 23.2 fantasy points per game over his last four games. He’s clearly cemented himself as the WR1 on his team, totaling 44.7 expected fantasy points over his last three active games (next-closest, Cooper Kupp, totals just 23.6), while Tennessee ranks worst in fantasy points per game over expectation to opposing WR1s.
Jarvis Landry [DK: WR13, FD: WR17] – Landry runs 64 percent of his routes from the slot, while Kansas City is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers. He’s priced as a mid-range WR2 on FanDuel, but ranks fourth among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game. That’s right, fourth among all wide receivers. He’s a legitimate tournament option this year, and not just the cash game-only play we’ve become accustomed to, leading all wide receivers in targets inside the 10-yard-line.
Josh Gordon [DK WR13, FD: WR11] – Last week, Gordon ran 68 percent of his routes from DeShone Kizer’s right, while Chicago is allowing the most fantasy points per game (and the second-highest percentage of) to right wide receivers.
Gordon is averaging 15.7 expected fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, which would rank eighth-most among wide receivers if over a full season.
Dede Westbrook [DK: WR17, FD: WR30] – It feels gross going back to the well on Westbrook this week, after scoring just 4.1 fantasy points last week, while Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens (who?) combined for 53.7. Still, he’s a strong start on FanDuel at likely low ownership up against a San Francisco defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most fantasy points per target to outside wide receivers. With Marqise Lee out of the lineup, Westbrook should see a larger workload, and outside of last week, he was seeing the typical workload of a mid-range WR2 (13.6 expected fantasy points per game).
Devin Funchess [DK WR7, FD: WR13] – Despite Funchess’ disappointing Week 15 (one catch for 19 yards) and Greg Olsen’s re-emergence onto the fantasy scene (12 targets and 26.6 fantasy points), I’m still high on Funchess’ Week 16 potential. Prior to last week, Funchess had seen at least six targets in 12 consecutive weeks. The matchup is strong as well. Last week, Funchess ran 68 percent of his routes from Cam Newton’s left, while Tampa Bay is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to left wide receivers, and also the third-most over expectation to WR1s.
Mohamed Sanu [DK: WR20, FD: WR30] – It’s hard to get excited about Julio Jones, who is likely to draw shadow coverage from rookie phenom Marshon Lattimore (our No. 4-graded cornerback). Jones was held to just 14.8 fantasy points on 11 targets the last time these two teams faced off, and Lattimore ranks top-five (among 60 qualifying cornerbacks) in fantasy points per target and fantasy points per route allowed to opposing wide receivers, despite shadowing names like Jones, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and Robby Anderson. The last time these two teams faced off Sanu totaled 20.3 fantasy points on eight targets. The matchup looks even softer this week, with primary slot defender Kenny Vaccaro recently placed on IR. This play definitely makes sense, but Sanu is also dealing with a knee injury that may have played a role in his 23-yard dud last week.
Sterling Shepard [DK: WR8, FD: WR19] – Excluding Week 14, when dealing with injury, Shepard is averaging 11.3 targets per game, 17.4 expected fantasy points per game (third-most if over a full season), and 19.9 actual fantasy points per game this season with Eli Manning starting and Odell Beckham Jr. out of the lineup. Shepard also runs 83 percent of his routes from the slot, avoiding Patrick Peterson, and where the Cardinals are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game.
Kendall Wright [DK: WR43, FD: WR49] – Wright has seen 22 targets over the past two weeks (fourth-most among wide receivers) and 36.4 expected fantasy points (10th-most), while the next-closest receiver on the team has seen only 11 targets and 19.2 expected fantasy points. He also has the best matchup of Chicago’s receivers, running 61 percent of his routes from the slot over this stretch, while Cleveland ranks worst in fantasy points per target and ninth-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot wide receivers this season. Roger Lewis is another strong salary saver for similar reasons, but he’ll be running about half of his routes against Patrick Peterson, which has me giving the edge to Wright.
Other – I’m not sure there’s too many more wide receivers I’m interested in this week, but I’ll keep this as a place-holder in case there’s anyone else I’m forgetting… Looks like I forgot Demaryius Thomas who has seen at least eight targets in eight consecutive games. Brock Osweiler has favored him more (and Thomas has been more productive with Osweiler) than Trevor Siemian. I’ll up exposure if Osweiler starts, and even more so if Sanders (currently questionable) is out…
Tight Ends
Cameron Brate [DK: TE14, FD: TE16] & Antonio Gates [Min. Price] – Nothing about Brate or Gate’s recent usage or matchup stands out as being especially attractive, but both are far too cheap relative to the uptick in volume we can expect following season-ending injuries to Hunter Henry and O.J. Howard. Brate is battling hip and knee injuries, but should play, and did rank fourth among tight ends in fantasy points over the first eight weeks of the season. Gates is cheaper and a little more boom-or-bust, relying mostly on touchdown upside at this stage of his career. He ranks third among all receivers in expected touchdowns per target.
Travis Kelce [DK: TE2, FD: TE2] – Kelce draws a Miami defense that ranks third-worst to tight ends in fantasy points per game over expectation. Over the past five weeks of the season, he’s averaging 16.2 expected fantasy points per game, or +2.0 more than the next-closest tight end. He also ranks, among all receivers, ninth in targets, fifth in red zone targets, 19th in deep targets, and eighth in expected fantasy points over this stretch.
Notes: Rob Gronkowski is also in play, because, well, he’s Gronk… Greg Olsen feels like chasing points, but last week was enough to vault him back up into the top-five of my rankings, and he might still be a little too cheap on DraftKings… Ricky Seals-Jones should be locked in for another six targets if Jermaine Gresham is out again. While he did little with it last week, he gets a dream matchup against a Giants defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, and could be without their highest-graded coverage defender and primary tight end defender (Landon Collins). That said, the quarterback-change (we saw a strong rapport with Blaine Gabbert, but nothing with Drew Stanton) has me nervous enough to not be too invested…