NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 2
Well, we crushed it last week. Yeah, yeah, yeah… Blah, blah, blah… Nobody reads the intros.
Here are my Week 2 main slate plays for DraftKings and Fanduel:
Note 1: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Check back Saturday for the updates. I’ll see you in the comments section.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB12] & Ben Roethlisberger [FD: QB6]
Most of my quarterback exposure will be tethered to the Kansas City @ Pittsburgh game, which sports the highest over/under of the week (53.5, highest by 4.5-points) and presents some shootout potential with a spread of 4.5-points. Both teams ranked top-10 in points scored last year and came into the season with a bottom-10-ranked (projected) secondary. (Starting CB Joe Haden is also questionable for the Steelers.)
Since 2014 (including postseason), Roethlisberger averages 24.0 fantasy points per game at home and only 14.7 fantasy points per game on the road. That might be the craziest stat in all of fantasy football, and significant too, over a whopping 65-game-sample. He also averages 1.7 more fantasy points per game more when Le’Veon Bell has been inactive over this stretch (14 games). He’s banged up but I’m not terribly concerned (neither is Vegas, with their total climbing in recent days) and actually hoping that might depress ownership. Over this span, he averages 23.0 fantasy points per game when listed on the injury report (five games).
Mahomes has been a top-four-graded quarterback in each of his two career starts. He also has some underappreciated upside as runner, totaling 12 carries across these two starts and 22 rushing touchdowns in his final two years of college (more than DeShaun Watson).
Other Quarterbacks & Notes: I also like the Alex Smith and suspect the San Francisco/Detroit game is going overlooked. UPDATE: Bortles is a strong play on FD, averaging 4.5 more fantasy points per game with Leonard Fournette off the field last year. I like Jimmy Garoppolo quite a bit and the stacks look obvious. I think that game goes well above the O/U and would bet Matthew Stafford draws almost zero ownership. Really, I just think I’m going to have one of Roethlisberger or Mahomes in 70 percent of my lineups. On the other 30 percent I’ll just get weird with various stacks. From what I’ve seen, everyone’s lineups look the same and they all look really great.
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon [DK: RB5, FD: RB5] (@ Bills)
Last year, Gordon averaged 19.4 expected fantasy points per game in weeks off of the injury report (which would have ranked behind only Le’Veon Bell). Earlier in the offseason, Chargers HC Anthony Lynn told ESPN reporter Dan Graziano that one of his biggest regrets of 2017 was “not getting Gordon more work in the passing game.” Lynn quickly rectified that error in Week 1, targeting Gordon 12 times – and Gordon too delivered, totaling 102 receiving yards. (He was also handed 15 touches on the ground.) On this sort of workload, Gordon should be closer to neck and neck in pricing with Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley rather than the $1,800+ differential we find on DraftKings.
When factoring in the matchup, Gordon’s value becomes all the more apparent. The Chargers are favored by 7.5-points against a Bills team that lost by 45 points in Week 1. Over Buffalo’s last 10 games, they’ve allowed 33.2 fantasy points per game (most) to opposing running backs as well as 4.82 yards per carry on the ground (most). The only concern is this game getting too out of hand to quickly and Austin Ekeler coming in too early in relief. UPDATE: Read this thread. Unlike with Gurley, Los Angeles has been quick to take out Gordon in blowouts. I think this is a legitimate concern for Gordon this week but I still don’t think it will have any significant impact on my ownership percentages.
Christian McCaffrey [DK: RB6, FD: RB8] (@ Falcons)
McCaffrey’s Week 1 volume may have seemed disappointing against the pace-sucking Cowboys but McCaffrey actually ranked top-five among running backs in expected fantasy points per snap and expected fantasy point market share. Per HC Ron Rivera, the ideal plan this week is still to give McCaffrey between 21 and 30 touches. Since Week 1 of last season, McCaffrey ranks 17th among all players in targets (122). He’s arguably the best pass-catching running back in the league, and now he draws the perfect matchup for a pass-catching running back.
Since 2016, Atlanta has surrendered 13.6 receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (most by +1.5). They’ll also be without LB Deion Jones and S Keanu Neal. Atlanta saw a league-high 132 targets last season, and either Jones or Neal were the primary defender (in coverage) on 47 percent of those targets. McCaffrey also benefits from Greg Olsen absence. Last year, he averaged 12.6 expected- and 12.7 actual fantasy points per game with Olsen on the field, but 16.3 and 16.1, respectively, with him out of the lineup.
James Conner [DK: RB8, FD: RB9] (vs. Chiefs)
Conner saw terrific volume in Week 1, playing on 100 percent of the team’s snaps and totaling 31 carries with five receptions (on six targets). For perspective, there were only five instances of a player totaling at least 36 touches in a single game last year, and two of those were from Bell. Conner was also terrific on those touches, scoring 35 fantasy points, or second-most among running backs. Week 1 was a tremendous follow-up to a great preseason from Conner, when he ranked as our highest-graded running back of 133 qualifying.
I suspect Conner’s price-tag should be much closer to Le’Veon Bell himself than to where he ranks in Week 2 – primarily because there’s been almost no difference between Bell and his back-ups over the past four years. Over this span, Bell has averaged 23.3 fantasy points per game and 26.7 touches per game. In the 16 games Bell has been inactive, his primary backup has averaged 22.0 fantasy points per game and 23.5 touches per game. Both of those numbers would have ranked top-three at the position last year.
For all of the reasons I like Roethlisberger’s matchup, I also like the matchup for Conner, who should continue to be used heavily as a pass-catcher.
Injury-Related Values
Tevin Coleman is an exceedingly strong play with Devonta Freeman out. The matchup doesn’t look great but offers one of the best touch-per-dollar values on the slate. Freeman played on just three snaps between Weeks 9-11 last year. In those three games, Tevin Coleman averaged 19.7 carries, 1.0 targets, 81.0 total yards, 1.3 total touchdowns, and 16.8 fantasy points per game. The pass game volume was bizarre and I’m not sure what to make of that, but he’s still a great play.
If Rex Burkhead and/or Sony Michel are out for Week 2, that would also make James White one of the best plays of the slate. New England’s wide receivers draw a brutal matchup against the best cornerback duo in the league (Jacksonville), which should funnel more targets to White. White saw a target (eight total) once every four routes during the preseason. In Week 1, he led the team in targets with nine.
If Leonard Fournette is out, T.J. Yeldon is a good (but maybe not as great) play. In the 2.25 quarters Jacksonville was without Fournette last week, Yeldon saw all 13 of the team’s running back carries and all five of the team’s running back targets. If over a full game that extrapolates to 23.1 carries and 8.9 targets. Still, he’s the most expensive of the three and this will be a game-time decision for a 4:25 PM game. He’ll be more of a late-swap option for me than someone I’ll be jamming into lineups on Sunday morning.
Other Running Backs & Notes – I also think people are over-looking Dalvin Cook and Adrian Peterson this week and I like Kareem Hunt as a leverage play / insurance policy to the majority of my Week 2 lineups. UPDATE: Not much has changed here. I still really like my main three running backs, Coleman, and Yeldon. It’s looking like Michel and Burkhead will play for New England, though White is still sort of in play. I really like Dion Lewis too, in a game I think Houston smashes (much more so than Vegas). Lewis out-snapped Lewis Derrick Henry 49 to 20 last week, drawing 16 carries and eight targets, with all of that coming in the final three-quarters of the game. Peterson is still going unfairly overlooked in a game Washington is favored by 6.0. Last week Peterson saw 26 carries, three targets, and all of the team’s three running back opportunities inside the 10-yard line. That’s rock-solid RB1 volume.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown [DK: WR1, FD: WR1] (vs. Chiefs)
Okay, clearly, I like the Pittsburgh game stack. However, if I’m wrong and Roethlisberger is actually sort of banged up, and not playing up his injury, it might be worth upping some exposure to Kareem Hunt as a leverage play.
Anyway, I do think Brown is worth forcing into lineups. DeAndre Hopkins averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game in 2017, which is the most by any non-Antonio Brown wide receiver over the past two seasons. Okay, keep that in mind. Now, over Brown’s last six full games, he averages 32.4 fantasy points per game. In the 14 games Bell has missed since 2015, he averages 28.1 fantasy points per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ran 86.7 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 1, suggesting a tough draw this week against Kendall Fuller, our No. 1-graded slot cornerback from a season ago. Antonio Brown’s matchup on the perimeter looks much softer, however. Kansas City’s starting perimeter cornerbacks are Steven Nelson and Orlando Scandrick, who are both not good (each ranking bottom-20 of 124-qualifying cornerbacks in yards allowed per route in coverage last season) and playing out of position. Both have spent at least two thirds of their snaps lined up in the slot over the past two seasons. Brown could be a slate-breaker this week.
Of course, I also like running it back with Tyreek Hill, who actually isn’t even expensive from a projected volume standpoint this week. Since the preseason, Hill is being targeted on one-third of his routes and represents 50 percent of Mahomes’ touchdowns and 56 percent of his yardage over this stretch. CB Joe Haden’s absence could be another big boost for him this week.
Jarvis Landry [DK: WR15, FD: WR21] (@ Saints)
Landry is only a decent value if he was still being used in the low-upside / low-aDOT role he saw in 2017 (when he still managed to finish fourth-best at the position in fantasy points per game). However, his usage looks to be far better this year. In Week 1, Landry totaled 27.9 expected fantasy points, 185 yards in air, and four deep targets in Week 1. His 2017 highs in each stat were 24.7, 124, and two, respectively. (He also led the team in expected last week with 0.7.) The rapport between he and Taylor, that had been hyped up all offseason, appears to be real, and now he’s being used in a role that’s closer to how new OC Todd Haley used Antonio Brown in 2017 than how he’s ever been used in the past.
The matchup works more towards his favor as well. WR Josh Gordon projects to be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore who struggled in Week 1 but was our No. 8-graded cornerback in 2017. Somehow Landry is being overlooked this week, despite New Orleans allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to post 417 passing yards and four touchdowns on 28 attempts in Week 1. Editors Note: Josh Gordon has been ruled out for Week 2
Cheap Wide Receivers
There are really a ton of cheap wide receivers to like this week. Right now, it’s looking like all of Dante Pettis, Chris Godwin, Quincy Enunwa, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, Devin Funchess, Nelson Agholor, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders are all solidly in play on at least one of the two sites. I’ll update on Saturday with my favorites after more injury news comes out.
Other Wide Receivers & Notes: UPDATE: Josh Gordon is out for Week 2. I’m honestly not sure how much that boosts Landry, if at all, but I already loved him this week – and especially on FanDuel… If Darius Slay shadows Pierre Garcon (probably a 65 percent chance he does) that would make Pettis easily one of the best value plays of the slate (at any position)… DeSean Jackson is likely to play on Sunday, which pushes Godwin back out of contention… I really like Enunwa who saw a whopping 10 of Darnold’s pass attempts last week. Jermaine Kearse returns this week. He’s J.A.G. and not a big concern to me, other than the fact that he might push Enunwa back out of the slot (where he scored 80 percent of his fantasy points in Week 1)… If Aaron Rodgers plays, Cobb and Allison are tremendous plays, and it’s hilarious no one is on them. In contrast to PFF’s WR vs. CB Matchup Chart, I do think Xavier Rhodes shadows Davante Adams if he’s healthy. We know Rodgers is apt to write off a wide receiver as dead if they’re in a bad cornerback matchup. Rodgers will be in shotgun all day on Sunday, and Cobb is Rodgers’ most-targeted wide receiver from the shotgun (third-most from under center.)… In five games without Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen last year, Funchess totaled 39 targets, 405 yards, and four touchdowns. Funchess disappointed last week with a 3-41-0 line on five targets. However, that looks a good deal better when considering QB Cam Newton attempted only 26 passes and Funchess had a league-high four targets called back due to penalty… Agholor has averaged 7.8 targets per game across his last nine games (including postseason). This week he gets set to face a Buccaneers secondary we had ranked as our second-worst and who just lost Vernon Hargreaves to IR and have fellow starter Brent Grimes questionable. Hargreaves was the team’s starting slot cornerback, which is where Agholor ran 53 percent of his routes last week… Demaryius Thomas is cheaper than Emmanuel Sanders on DraftKings and Sanders is cheaper than Thomas on FanDuel, though they’re both a bit too cheap on both sites. Sanders dominated preseason usage with Keenum (which is partly why we were all-in on him last week) and out-scored Thomas in Week 1, though Thomas trumped Sanders in expected fantasy points (18.9 to 16.5) and expected touchdowns (0.5 to 0.1) last week. Sanders has the slightly better matchup but it’s soft all around… Keenan Allen is in play this week and probably every week moving forward, and I think makes sense as leverage off of Gordon… Corey Davis would be a smash play if he wasn’t hurt and his QB wasn’t hurt, but both of those things are true this week…
Tight Ends
There’s an embarrassment of value at the tight end position this week which makes landing on just one guy pretty tough.
George Kittle [DK: TE10, FD: TE9] (vs. Lions)
After totaling 90 yards on 9 targets in Week 1, George Kittle projects to be one of the most-highly owned tight ends of the week, and it’s not without good reason. Yes, he benefited from a Marquise Goodwin injury (he played on only 25 percent of the team’s snaps) and Pierre Garcon drawing shadow coverage from Xavier Rhodes, but his Week 2 matchup is nearly identical. Goodwin is still seriously banged up, Darius Slay is then likely to shadow Pierre Garcon, and Detroit’s defense just let the youngest starting quarterback ever score 48 points in his debut.
Jared Cook [DK: TE11, FD: TE16] (@ Broncos)
Oakland’s offense was weird in Week 1. Oakland’s tight ends totaled 15 targets and 31.0 fantasy points. Oakland’s running backs totaled 15 targets and 19.0 fantasy points (through the air). Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson combined for seven targets and only 7.2 fantasy points. Cook totaled 180 yards and led all tight ends in both expected- and actual fantasy points in Week 1. Is he now the focal point of this Raiders offense? I think not.
Over the past four seasons, Cook has been the NFL’s single-least-efficient tight end, totaling 58.2 fantasy points below his expectation. I think what we really learned this week is Los Angeles is a top “tight end funnel” defense – a defense with strong cornerbacks but weaker linebackers that funnels targets to the tight end position. Indeed, Los Angeles’ three starting cornerbacks all graded out top-15 last season.
That said, like with Kittle, it’s nearly the same matchup this week. Denver was the second-most “tight end funnel matchup” last year, surrendering 29.2 percent of their receiving fantasy points to tight ends in 2017 (second-most) and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Ricky Seals-Jones [DK: TE24, FD: TE14] (@ Rams)
I don’t think I’m over-reacting to a weird Week 1 here when I say, I do think the Rams are going to be the best matchup for fantasy tight ends all year. That pushes Seals-Jones in play for Week 2. He saw a 17.6 percent target market share and ranked fifth at the position in expected fantasy points in Week 1. The offense as a whole is a concern but he should be peppered with targets in this contest. UPDATE: The Rams also sorely missed ILB Mark Barron last week, and he’ll be out again this week. TE Jermaine Gresham is also again out for Arizona.
Jordan Reed [DK: TE5, FD: TE5] (vs. Colts)
After debating Reed vs. Jack Doyle for close to an hour, I think I’m leaning more towards Reed, who has out-scored Rob Gronkowski and puts up mid-range WR1 numbers when fully healthy since 2015. He ran a route on only 60 percent of Alex Smith’s routes in Week 1. That number was at about 83 percent when fully healthy in 2016. We knew coming into the week he’d be on a snap count but still delivered with a 4-48-1 line on five targets. His snap count was also further hampered by a game that got out of hand quickly – the Redskins were up 21 points at the half and Reed ran just six routes in the second half. No active quarterback has targeted tight ends as frequently as Alex Smith throughout his career, and the matchup looks strong against what’s probably the worst secondary in the NFL.
Other Tight Ends & Notes – Jack Doyle, Ben Watson, and David Njoku to far lesser extents. UPDATE: Man, tight end is so tough. I love all of the above tight ends as well as Jack Doyle, and can make a case for Jonnu Smith. Doyle struggled last week and in the preseason but volume was just as good as we expected it to be. Washington surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. Njoku is now in play as well with Gordon out, drops be damed. I wish I had a stronger read (pun unintentional) on the position but I just don’t.