NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 6
On a slate with a ton of options to like, I’m going to keep the intro short and conserve all of my energy for player analysis.
Focusing on only the main slate (excluding Sunday night), here are my favorite plays of the week:
Note 1: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Note 2: All numbers in parentheses refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Quarterbacks
Kevin Hogan [DK: QB35, FD: QB33] – Hogan is far too cheap, and has an attractive ceiling and floor thanks to his ability as a runner. Including preseason statistics, he’s running at the second-highest rate in the league over the past two seasons – ahead of names like Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, and Tyrod Taylor. He gets set to face a primarily man coverage defense in the Texans. Mobile quarterbacks typically have more productive games on the ground against man defenses, because it’s much easier to run on a defense when their defensive backs have their backs turned to a quarterback. This season (preseason included), on 70 attempts, Hogan has gone deep 16 times, or on 22.9 percent of his attempts, while the league average rate is at only 12.0 percent. This bodes especially well for him considering the Texans are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game on deep targets. The Texans are also allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, facing Blake Bortles, a pre-Bill Lazor Andy Dalton, Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota / Matt Cassel, and Alex Smith, and will be without J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus, and possibly Jadaveon Clowney for Sunday’s contest. This game total has jumped +2.5 points since it opened, and now sits tied for fifth-highest of the week.
Stacking Options: Given Hogan’s run-first deep-ball approach, I’m mostly off of Duke Johnson, given the superior volume Andre Ellington has at a better pricetag. Hogan has also been far less willing to target Johnson than Kizer when on the field. Hogan has instead locked eyes on Ricardo Louis, who he likely has plenty of rapport with, after two years of second-string practice reps. This season, Hogan has targeted Louis on 28.6 percent of his attempts (would be sixth-most in the league), accounting for 57.7 percent of his total air yards (would be most in the league). Louis leads the team in snaps and targets (by double the next-closest wide receiver) over the past two weeks and Kenny Britt is questionable to play this week. Houston is also far more susceptible to the deep ball, which is where Louis (4.43 forty-yard-dash time in 2016) excels. The play may be naked Hogan, but I’ll certainly have some exposure to Louis at a near-minimum price-tag and ownership.
DeShaun Watson [DK: QB6, FD: QB7] – The Texans have seen their implied point total jump by +1.5 points, and now have the third-highest total of the week. Watson leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and has a dream matchup against a pass funnel defense in the Browns. The Browns rank second-best in running back yards per carry allowed, but dead-last in opposing passer rating. The Browns are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, despite not facing a single quarterback ranking top-15 in fantasy points scored. The Browns also, embarrassingly, rank first in blitzes per dropback (a staple of Gregg Williams’ defensive teams), but last in pressures per dropback (granted, the majority of this was without Myles Garrett). I can’t stress the importance of this one statistic enough. This should be a big boost for Watson, considering his offensive line ranks last in pass blocking efficiency, but also should create plenty of opportunities for DeAndre Hopkins, who Watson always trusts to win a 1v1 battle, and for Will Fuller, who could easily burn this defense for multiple deep scores if they’re not bringing extra safety help over the top. Watson ranks top-five in passer rating against the blitz (121.6), and leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He should have plenty of room to break loose for a long run if he manages to escape the pocket on a blitz.
Stacking Options: DeAndre Hopkins is always in play given ridiculous volume. He ranks first in target market share (40 percent, 6.5 percent more than the next-closest player), which isn’t even including a league-leading 11 targets called back due to penalty. Still, he has a sneaky-tough draw in Jason McCourty, our third-highest-graded cornerback this season, who shadowed A.J. Green on 97 percent of his routes in Week 4, holding him to just 31 total yards. Will Fuller should spend his day against Jamar Taylor, our 18th-worst-graded cornerback, who is surrendering a passer rating of 140.8 when targeted (second-worst of 109 qualifying). Ryan Griffin has seen 19 targets over the past three weeks and draws a Cleveland Browns defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends in each of the past two seasons.
Carson Palmer [DK: QB14, FD: QB12] – As Pat Thorman has already written (and more articulately than I could), this should be a pass-heavy pace-heavy affair between two defenses far more susceptible against the pass than the run. Arizona has seen their total jump one point since it opened, and on Friday Tampa Bay listed the following defensive starters as out or questionable for Sunday: Kwon Alexander (LB), Robert Ayers (DE), Lavonte Davis (LB), and Keith Tandy (S). The main draw for Palmer is a number of stacking options to love. Larry Fitzgerald ranks eighth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game, and Tampa Bay is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers out of the slot. He draws our third-worst-graded cornerback in Robert McClain. John Brown is mispriced and has seen between seven and nine targets and at least one end zone target in every game he’s played. Tampa Bay is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers. Over the past three weeks, Andre Ellington ranks seventh among all players in expected fantasy points and fifth in targets. Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The arrival of Adrian Peterson could be a concern in terms of usage, but likely not to anyone who has watched him (or either of these two teams’ pass defenses) play in recent weeks.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt [DK: RB2, FD: RB1] – Hunt is our highest-graded running back this season, and is nearly double the next-closest running back in raw grading. He’s putting together one of the greatest/most-efficient rookie running back seasons of all-time. He also draws an ideal run funnel defense in the Steelers, who rank fourth-best in opposing passer rating, and fourth-worst in yards per carry allowed. After drawing the Texans last week, who allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, the Steelers are allowing the fourth-most.
Todd Gurley [DK: RB5, FD: RB7] – Gurley draws a Jaguars run-funnel defense that ranks second-worst in yards per carry allowed, but best in opposing passer rating. Guley ranks third-best among all players in expected fantasy points per game. He’s seen 82 percent of his team’s opportunities inside the five-yard-line and 65 percent inside the 10, both of which lead the league. Even if the Jaguars stack the box against Gurley, he should be held afloat by receiving work, leading all running backs in receiving fantasy points per game with 12.8, which would even rank 23rd among wide receivers.
Leonard Fournette [DK: RB3, FD: RB3] – The Jaguars are running the ball 55.34 percent of the time, which would be the most by any team since 2009. Fournette ranks third among running backs in both expected and actual fantasy points per game. He ranks top-four in carries inside the five-, 10-, and 20-yard lines. In recent years, Wade Phillips’ defenses have sold out to stop the pass, leaving themselves more vulnerable against the run. That trend is no different this season, with the Rams ranking eighth-best in opposing passer rating, but allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The concerns with Fournette are a 3.5 yards per carry average outside of last week’s long run, and that Phillips may adjust his scheme to account for Jacksonville’s one-dimensional offense. Fournette also has a much lower ceiling as a receiver, which makes me like him slightly less than Gurley or Hunt.
Mark Ingram [DK: RB39, FD: RB24] – Ingram currently ranks 19th among running backs in expected fantasy points. As the 39th-most expensive running back on DraftKings, he was already my second-best value play on the site (in terms of expected fantasy points per DraftKings salary), but that wasn’t even including the now vacant vacant 4.1 expected fantasy points per game of Adrian Peterson – that Ingram should absorb the far majority of. Alvin Kamara is currently drawing all of the attention from DFS touts, against a Lions defense slightly more susceptible to running backs against the pass. Still, the Saints are 4.5-point favorites at home, and though Kamara has six more targets than Ingram (26 to 20), he is being out-carried by Ingram 42 to 15. Ingram is $100 more-expensive than Kamara on FanDuel and $100 cheaper on DraftKings. I prefer him to Kamara on both sites, and suspect lower ownership as well.
Javorius Allen [DK: RB18, FD: RB26] – Chicago will likely be without linebackers Jerrell Freeman, Nick Kwiatkoski, Danny Trevathan, John Timu, and Willie Young. These players accounted for 98 percent of Chicago’s linebacker snaps last season. When you have a team decimated by linebacker injuries like Chicago, your best bet is to attack them on the ground, hoping your running back can break through to the second-level. Or, you attack them with your receiving running back through the air. Allen fits both roles especially well. He ranks 12th among running backs in targets and 13th in expected fantasy points per game. With Terrance West out, Allen could be used in an even larger capacity this week. So far, Allen is averaging 18.7 carries per game and 4.0 targets per game in victories, and 5.0 carries per game and 6.0 targets per game in losses. Vegas suspects the Ravens to win this game easily, as 6.5-point home favorites. If Vegas is right, Allen should be an equally strong play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and I especially like pairing him with Baltimore’s defense against a rookie quarterback in his second-ever NFL start.
Wide Receivers
Antonio Brown [DK: WR1, FD: WR1] – Brown currently leads all players in expected fantasy points, targets (61), and air yards (926, by +141 more than next-closest). Last season the Chiefs allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers running routes from their quarterback’s left, and are allowing the third-most there this season. This is where Brown typically runs 53 percent of his routes, and could spend even more time there this week, avoiding Marcus Peters’ side of the field. Last season, in two games, Brown totaled 10 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns on 16 targets against the Chiefs.
Julio Jones [DK: WR2, FD: WR3] – Mohamed Sanu is out for Week 6, leaving behind the 6.7 target per game average he saw when healthy. The Dolphins rank fourth-worst in opposing passer rating, but fifth-best in yards per carry allowed. There’s definitely a possibility Jones is more hurt than he’s letting on, or Atlanta dominates and Matt Ryan takes his foot off the gas in the second-half — like we saw against Green Bay – (and it’s worth adding Devonta Freeman exposure in case that happens again), but Jones always has monster upside and could come in at low ownership this week. Jones had just 30 total receiving yards in his last game. Last season, Jones had just five games of 60 yards or less. In each of the following weeks, he put up 48.0, 26.9, 25.1, 18.3, and 22.6 fantasy points.
Adam Thielen [DK: WR23, FD: WR25] – The last time Thielen played Green Bay, he caught 12 passes (on 15 targets) for 202 yards and two touchdowns. In Week 5 of last season, when Diggs sat out due to injury, Thielen caught seven passes (on eight targets) for 127 yards and a score. I am of the belief that Thielen is one of the better receivers in the league, putting together an all-time season in depth-adjusted yards per target last year, and ranking top-three again this year. He graded out 14th-best among wide receivers last year, and ranks eighth-best this season. Oh, and he’s also an athletic freak of nature. Volume has been attractive as well, ranking 12th-best at his potion in expected fantasy points per game and 10th-best in total targets, both well above his current price-tag. Green Bay is giving up the second-most fantasy points per target to opposing slot wide receivers, and Thielen gets set to face off against our fourth-worst-graded cornerback in Quinten Rollins. Among 107 qualifying cornerbacks over the last two seasons, Rollins ranks worst (and by a sizeable margin) in opposing passer rating (137.8) and fantasy points allowed per target (2.41). Don’t overthink this.
Chris Hogan [DK: WR9, FD: WR10] – Hogan ranks 10th among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game, while fellow wide receiver Brandin Cooks ranks just 37th. Hogan has seen two targets inside the 5, five targets inside the 10, and nine targets inside the 20-yard line, ranking top-five among all receivers in each category. Hogan has also seen six end zone targets thus far, which ranks fourth-most among all receivers. Cooks has drawn the tougher cornerback matchup in most weeks, being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore in Week 2 and James Bradberry in Week 4. Week 6 should be no different against the Jets. Morris Claiborne (4.50 forty-yard-dash at the Combine, but 4.39 at his Pro Day) has shadowed in each of his last four games (Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker, Marqise Lee, and Ricardo Louis), and ranks 13th-best (of 80 qualifying cornerbacks) in fantasy points allowed per route in coverage. On the opposite side of the field, Buster Skrine ranks seventh-worst in fantasy points allowed per target.
DeSean Jackson [DK: WR26, FD: WR28] – Jackson ranks 23rd among wide receivers in targets per game, third in air yards per game, first in deep targets per game, and fifth in end-zone targets per game. For three consecutive weeks Mike Evans has drawn one of the tougher cornerback matchups in the league, while Jackson has drawn a much softer matchup. Week 6 is no different, with Evans guaranteed to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson, while Jackson draws a slow-footed Justin Bethel (4.58-second 40-yard-dash) for the majority of the game. Bethel has surrendered 77 fantasy points into his coverage thus far, which ranks fourth-most among all cornerbacks, and would rank seventh-most among all wide receivers. It seems every week Jackson has been just inches away from one or two 10+ fantasy point plays. Rapport should improve with Jameis Winston as the season progresses, but I’m guessing it starts this week.
Other Wide Receivers – Garcon and Hilton have had brutal cornerback matchups to start the year, and both did well last week in much softer spots. Both again draw soft matchups against a Josh Norman-less Washington Redskins (also a revenge game) and a San Francisco defense whose three starting cornerbacks all grade out among our 16-worst (of 170 qualifying). Jarvis Landry ranks sixth among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (just ahead of A.J. Green), should draw more targets with DeVante Parker out, and gets an Atlanta defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers over the past two seasons. Michael Crabtree is egregiously priced on DraftKings, despite leading all wide receivers in fantasy points per snap and fantasy points per target. My more-knowledgeable boss Jeff Ratcliffe disagrees, but I suspect Casey Hayward shadows Amari Cooper, leaving Crabtree in the easier matchup. Robby Anderson easily leads his team in air yards and deep targets. The Jets should be trailing throughout, and New England is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers on deep targets and fourth-most on intermediate targets. I like his tournament potential at a low-price and low-ownership. Devante Adams is in a dream matchup against Trae Waynes, with Jordy Nelson likely to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes – but you don’t need my analysis to tell you why he’s a great play.
Tight Ends
I’m bad at tight ends.