NFL Grind Down: Week 11
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Tennessee Titans | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.8 | 13 | 27 | 8 | Offense | 20.8 | 19 | 11 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 24.1 | 23 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | Tennessee Titans | 18 | 11 | 24 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 62 | 36 | 2 | 513 | Brown | 101 | 60 | 3 | 882 | |
| Decker | 44 | 28 | 1 | 266 | Smith-Schuster | 43 | 29 | 5 | 521 | |
| Davis | 28 | 13 | 0 | 149 | Bryant | 41 | 21 | 1 | 276 | |
| Walker | 63 | 43 | 0 | 458 | James | 30 | 20 | 2 | 193 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
TEN Matchup Rating: 3.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 6.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: The first page of games this week is downright brutal, so this is going to go quite quickly when it comes to writing them up. This game is the highest projected scoring game on this first page, and it has a relatively meager total of 44 points. The Titans have a tough draw on a short week against the Steelers, especially since they will be playing this game on the road. Marcus Mariota appeared to be nearing full health before last week’s game, but he did get banged up a good bit against the Bengals. It sounds like he will be good to go for this game, but it’s a tough sell in the difficult matchup. If you didn’t use Cam Newton on the Monday/Thursday slate, you could potentially spring for Mariota, but I will be avoiding him on the full week slates.
Running Backs: DeMarco Murray just won’t go away, and Derrick Henry is going to suffer the consequences. That certainly isn’t going to change after Murray piled up a three touchdown performance against the Bengals last week. He ran for two scores early in the game and added a receiving touchdown in the second half. Murray has now played on more than 70% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, so this is his job until proven otherwise. His salary tag is still remarkably affordable on almost every site, so don’t hesitate to give Murray a look in the mid range. I likely won’t roster him, but he has proven me wrong here over the last few weeks, and Pittsburgh isn’t a “must avoid” matchup for an opposing runner. There’s some merit to it at Murray’s current salary.
Pass Catchers: The snap count continues to rise for Corey Davis, as he soared to an 87% snap rate a week ago. He also saw a healthy 10 targets, and he should have had a touchdown catch if not for the silly reaching for the pylon/fumble/touchback rule that seems to be happening all over the place these days. I’m not bitter or anything. Delanie Walker also seems to be getting healthy and had a solid game a week ago, The problem is that the Steelers have been stout against tight ends this year. It’s hard to get excited about anyone outside of Davis in this group.
The Takeaway: In cash games, the safest play on this team is probably DeMarco Murray, as weird as that is to say. In GPPs, the upside of Corey Davis is very intriguing. Outside of those two players, I’m not jumping for a whole lot. The Titans have a meager 18 point implied team total in this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The numbers simply haven’t been there for Ben Roethlisberger this season. He has just 12 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions through nine games, and his current 61.1% completion percentage would be his lowest mark since 2008. In the twilight of his career, Roethlisberger simply isn’t a quality fantasy option. Like Mariota, you can consider him if you still need a Monday/Thursday quarterback, but I would avoid Big Ben on the full week slates. If you are looking to choose between the two, Roethlisberger gets the slight nod because he’s playing at home and has a few more weapons around him.
Running Backs: Le’Veon Bell remains the same steady option that we have always come to count on. The Steelers are 6-0 this year when he gets at least 25 carries, and they are 1-2 when he gets less than 20 carries. That math is pretty simplistic, but it paints a picture that the Steelers win when they give Bell the football. That game plan is not going to change. The problem is that the struggles of Roethlisberger have allowed teams to stack the box a little bit more, which has made production harder to come by for the running game. Tennessee is also a difficult matchup, as they are allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this year and have allowed just four rushing touchdowns. Bell is obviously a safe play and is the safest play from this entire game, but he’s not a must roster at his high salary.
Pass Catchers: Roethlisberger’s struggles haven’t really affected emerging rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster, who just continues to produce on a weekly basis. He has now grabbed touchdown passes in three straight games and has 290 receiving yards over the last two. These factors have combined to hurt Antonio Brown, who has been virtually silent in each of the last two contests. A breakout game is likely coming at some point, but Brown remains over-priced based on prior production. With the way this passing game is currently operating, it is difficult to pay the premium for Brown. If you believe in the breakout from Smith-Schuster, his price is still affordable. If you think this is a flash in the pan, he’s probably priced out for you. Tennessee is very vulnerable through the air, so these two clear-cut starting wide receivers are definitely in play. Martavis Bryant played on 56% of the snaps last week as the third receiver, and he’s a risk/reward GPP option only. There’s too much risk for me on the full week slates.
The Takeaway: There are some solid plays on this squad, but nobody really qualifies as a must have in my opinion. Bell and Brown are very pricey. While Bell is always the safer of the two, he also draws the tougher matchup in this game. Brown has been subdued a bit via the struggles of Ben Roethlisberger combined with the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, and JuJu remains priced in the mid-range on all sites. You can avoid the team if you wish if you are playing Thursday start contests, or you can lock in one of the key pieces on the Steelers team. They are good, but not necessarily elite, options.
| Detroit Lions | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 42 | 22.5 | 3 | 42 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.1 | 6 | 6 | 28 | Offense | 16.7 | 28 | 31 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 13 | 11 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 20 | 26 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 20 | 14 | 5 | Detroit Lions | 14 | 24 | 20 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Tate | 71 | 56 | 3 | 659 | Inman | 12 | 8 | 0 | 97 | |
| Jones | 64 | 34 | 5 | 537 | Wright | 42 | 27 | 1 | 305 | |
| Golladay | 18 | 9 | 2 | 166 | Bellamy | 24 | 12 | 1 | 171 | |
| Ebron | 39 | 20 | 2 | 234 | Sims | 18 | 9 | 1 | 113 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
DET Matchup Rating: 5.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.5
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: It was a rocky start for Matthew Stafford last week, but he eventually got the engines going and finished with a solid game against the lowly Browns. He is now averaging 336 passing yards per game with eight total touchdown tosses over his last four games. That’s a pretty solid month for any quarterback. The schedule has been somewhat favorable, but he did put up solid numbers against a couple of good defenses in that stretch. This week’s matchup is less appealing on the road against a solid Bears pass defense, and the Bears will also try to shorten the game with their ground and pound style. Now that Stafford’s price is quite elevated based on his recent performances, this is a very logical spot to pass. Let someone else take on the high salary this week.
Running Backs: The Lions are definitely not a run-first team, which is part of the reason why Stafford is able to put up consistently solid numbers. Ameer Abdullah handles a slight edge in snaps and touches in games where the Lions are leading, while Theo Riddick plays in more of the passing situations. With this being a game with only a three point spread, it’s tough to guarantee one way or the other. Both players have relatively low floors, and the ceilings aren’t all that high with Detroit putting so much emphasis on the passing game. I’m not really interested here.
Pass Catchers: Golden Tate continues to put up rock solid numbers on a weekly basis, and it is clear that he has a nice rapport with Matthew Stafford. He has cleared 85 receiving yards in four straight games and has at least six catches in all those contests, as well. He’s a super safe option on full PPR sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft. Marvin Jones will continue to be hit-or-miss, and calling the fade on him was probably my biggest victory of last week. Tate is my preferred play in both cash games and tournaments. It’s still impossible to trust Eric Ebron even though he managed to fall into the end zone last week. My interest here starts and ends with Tate.
The Takeaway: Like the other games on this page, this does not profile as a shootout-type game. It’s going to be a chilly November Sunday in Chicago, and this is the perfect time to jump off the Stafford bandwagon. If I have interest in one player from this Detroit squad, it would be the ever-consistent wide receiver Golden Tate. The other options feel a bit over-priced or their roles are too insecure for my liking.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky finally had a solid game last week, as the Bears finally unleashed him a little bit. A lot of that was due to game flow, but it was encouraging to see him throw for almost 300 yards, especially since he had not topped the 200 yard mark in any of his previous starts. I want to see him do this again a time or two before buying in for DFS purposes, so I will abstain from taking him in Week 11. The Lions’ defense is no joke, and given Trubisky’s limited weapons, it will likely be difficult for him to establish week-to-week consistency.
Running Backs: John Fox made a ridiculous challenge last week that cost Jordan Howard a chance at a touchdown and may have cost the Bears the game. Instead of getting a first and goal from the one yard line, Fox challenged the call claiming a potential touchdown. In reality, Benny Cunningham fumbled while reaching for the pylon, and the result was a touchback for the Packers. It would have been first and goal from the one, John! Fantasy owners everywhere were crying in their drinks after that one. Howard is a game flow dependent option who isn’t involved in the passing game, and he played on less than 50% of the snaps last week. In a fairly difficult matchup, I’ll pass this week.
Pass Catchers: This is one of the worst groups of receivers in the NFL, though Dontrelle Inman breathed some life into the group with six grabs for 88 yards against the Packers. He also played on a whopping 95% of the offensive snaps, so he is likely looking at a role as an every down receiver. He’s a reasonable punt option, though the Bears likely won’t pass the ball as much this week. Be aware of the risk if you take the chance here. Nobody else in the group is really even in the conversation.
The Takeaway: You can consider Dontrelle Inman as a punt play at wide receiver. The rest of the team is bereft of fantasy options these days, and there’s no reason to take the chance on playing some Bears players against a decent defense.
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 37.5 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 37.5 | 15 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.1 | 9 | 28 | 1 | Offense | 15.9 | 31 | 24 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 28 | 15 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 14.6 | 1 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 26 | 8 | 10 | 30 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1 | 18 | 1 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Lee | 69 | 38 | 2 | 493 | Coleman | 13 | 6 | 1 | 62 | |
| Westbrook | Louis | 51 | 25 | 0 | 307 | |||||
| Cole | 34 | 14 | 0 | 219 | Britt | 31 | 12 | 2 | 166 | |
| Lewis | 31 | 12 | 4 | 183 | DeValve | 38 | 21 | 1 | 264 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Allen Hurns (JAX WR) – Out (Ankle)
JAX Matchup Rating: 5.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 2.0
THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE – Heavy winds are forecasted for this game. Bump Blake Bortles down significantly as a QB option, and the Cleveland defense even enters the picture as a viable punt defense if Kevin Roth’s weather forecast holds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: This might sound crazy, but it’s not that far-fetched of an idea to consider Blake Bortles in DFS formats this week. The Browns have a strong rush defense and a bad pass defense, and that doesn’t quite play in to what Jacksonville generally likes to do, which is running the football. There is certainly a fair amount of risk with this play, especially since Bortles has just one multi-touchdown game all season. However, there’s also an interesting amount of upside against a team that has allowed 19 touchdown passes and a 104 quarterback rating to opposing signal-callers this year. If you need to grab a quarterback on the cheap this week, there are worse options than Bortles. I’ll leave it at that, as opposed to giving a ringing recommendation for a bad quarterback.
Running Backs: I’m not sure what the deal is with Leonard Fournette at this point. Perhaps he is still being “punished” by the team, as he barely played on 50% of the offensive snaps a week ago. At his elevated price point, he is completely out of play for me this week. The Browns are no joke when it comes to rush defense, and Fournette simply carries too much risk for the potential payoff. If you want a high dollar running back that will be low owned in a GPP, you can maybe look here, but it’s not that interesting for me.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns has already been ruled out for this week, so that means Marqise Lee will step into a clear #1 receiver role for the Jaguars in a favorable matchup. Although he may well see plenty of top Cleveland corner Jason McCourty, the opportunity as the clear top receiver is too good to ignore. Dede Westbrook is going to be activated for this game, but it sounds like his role will be somewhat limited in his first game back. Keelan Cole is an interesting risk/reward punt in tournaments if you’re looking for a really cheap option. It’s too difficult to trust Westbrook until we see how he looks on the field.
The Takeaway: The way to attack the Browns is via the pass, which means we might see the first good game from Blake Bortles in a while. He’s a risky QB option but can be considered in GPP contests. The injury to Allen Hurns will open up opportunities for Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole to have bigger games. With Cleveland being strong against the run and Leonard Fournette seeing his role scaled back a bit, there isn’t a lot of appeal to paying up for him this week.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The Browns have had a revolving door of quarterbacks all year long, and they’ve all been pretty much terrible. The team is winless, and now they have to face a Jaguars team that has the best pass defense in the NFL. This doesn’t require a whole lot of analysis. Just say no.
Running Backs: In theory, this is the place where you can get to the Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks just 30th in DVOA against the run, and they are allowing 4.6 yards per carry on the year. The Browns gave Isaiah Crowell a surprisingly heavy dose of work last week, which is probably no coincidence given the fact that Cleveland was competitive or leading for a full three quarters against the Lions. However, despite the fact that Crowell received 16 carries, he still played on just 44% of the overall snaps. Basically, he got the ball when he was on the field. His 90 yards rushing marked his highest total of the year, and he has scored just two touchdowns on the season (one in each of the last two games). There’s no reason to get excited here. Duke Johnson carries some very interesting PPR appeal if the weather necessitates a lot of short passes.
Pass Catchers: See the quarterback section above and repeat the mantra: just say no. Even though the Browns are getting Corey Coleman back this week, let’s not get cute and start him right out of the gate. Wait for a better matchup before going here.
The Takeaway: Don’t play anyone from this Browns team. The Jaguars are your top overall defensive option in Week 11, though they will be popular and also carry a hefty price tag. You can certainly play the GPP fade and hope that a defensive touchdown isn’t in the works.
| Baltimore Ravens | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 37.5 | 19.75 | 2 | 37.5 | 17.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.1 | 18 | 32 | 10 | Offense | 22.7 | 14 | 20 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.9 | 22 | 21 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 7 | 2 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 15 | 22 | 28 | 1 | Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 19 | 2 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 42 | 27 | 3 | 310 | Nelson | 53 | 33 | 6 | 358 | |
| Wallace | 35 | 20 | 2 | 267 | Adams | 72 | 42 | 6 | 494 | |
| Perriman | 27 | 7 | 0 | 54 | Cobb | 47 | 36 | 1 | 371 | |
| Watson | 49 | 38 | 2 | 261 | Kendricks | 14 | 9 | 1 | 135 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Aaron Jones (GB RB) – Out (Knee) / Ty Montgomery (GB RB) – Out (Ribs)
BAL Matchup Rating: 4.0
GB Matchup Rating: 3.5
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Even as a Baltimore supporter, there’s no way I can justify Joe Flacco for any fantasy format. He has completed just ten passes for 20+ yards this season (in nine games). He has just eight touchdowns and ten interceptions. His 5.33 yards per attempt is dead last among qualified quarterbacks — lower than Jay Cutler and DeShone Kizer. Yeah, it’s been a rough year for the Baltimore passing game. As I have said before, don’t play Joe Flacco.
Running Backs: Right when I started to get excited about Alex Collins, he played on merely a third of the Ravens’ offensive snaps heading into the bye week in Week 10. There is also a slight chance that Danny Woodhead might return this week. It’s hard to figure out how the workload will get split between two players here, let alone a potential third wheel in Woodhead. If Woodhead is out, Alex Collins and Javorius Allen get a slight bump upward in their projections, but this is a Baltimore offense that we have gotten away with fading all year long. That doesn’t change now.
Pass Catchers: Baltimore’s leading receiver on the year has 310 receiving yards this season. Yes, you read that correctly. This is their tenth game of the year. There are some receivers who can put up that kind of production in two games, let alone nine. This passing game is a dumpster fire, and even though the Packers don’t necessarily possess a fearsome defense, who exactly do you want to trust in this group of players with the corpse of Joe Flacco throwing the football to them? That’s a rhetorical question. Pass.
The Takeaway: This game seems like a likely snooze-fest, with a Vegas total of just 38 points projected. Don’t bother with anyone from this Baltimore offense, as the production is never centered around one player, and the weapons are mediocre at best. Even though they aren’t the most talented unit, Green Bay’s defense is actually a sneaky play this week if you’re looking for an under the radar option.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Brett Hundley did make two very nice throws last week, and it seems like he is getting more and more comfortable with each game. Last week was a definite step in the right direction. I’m still not ready to trust him for DFS purposes against a Baltimore defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the pass, though. The Packers are going to be extremely short-handed in this game and are actually home underdogs to a team led by Joe Flacco. Yeah, that’s not good.
Running Backs: This position all comes down to injury status. Aaron Jones is definitely out, and Ty Montgomery is currently not practicing due to his nagging rib injury. If both of them are forced to the sidelines this week, it will be tough to ignore Jamaal Williams as a value play in the backfield — even in a difficult matchup against the Ravens. I’ll keep an eye on this situation and update as we get closer to game day.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Jones and Montgomery are both out. Williams is a viable play despite the difficult matchup, but his price is not as cheap as I would have liked (particularly on DraftKings). Throw Williams into the value RB mix.
Pass Catchers: The production has dipped for this entire group with Hundley under center, which is obviously no surprise. Green Bay will likely look to control the clock via the running game, especially since that’s generally been the better way to attack the Ravens this year. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams are always capable of big games and are live GPP options, but the risk is definitely elevated given the state of the offense. There is no need to force anything here.
The Takeaway: Again, this game is likely to be a bit of a snooze-fest. Fire up the defenses on either side and watch the sacks and turnovers roll in. Seriously, though, keep an eye on the status of Ty Montgomery. If he is forced to miss this game, Jamaal Williams becomes a very interesting value play at running back.