RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 12
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
| Tennessee Titans | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.5 | 8 | 21 | 3 | Offense | 15.7 | 31 | 20 | 20 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 19 | 10 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 23 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 15 | 3 | 32 | 9 | Tennessee Titans | 24 | 8 | 27 | 23 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 66 | 45 | 6 | 605 | Royal | 42 | 32 | 2 | 375 | |
| Sharpe | 65 | 34 | 2 | 453 | Meredith | 45 | 33 | 2 | 430 | |
| Wright | 36 | 25 | 3 | 376 | Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0 | 35 | |
| Walker | 68 | 46 | 5 | 607 | Paulsen | 9 | 3 | 0 | 15 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (CHI QB) – Doubtful (Shoulder) / Eddie Royal (CHI WR) – Questionable (Toe)
TEN Matchup Rating: 7.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: His performance last week was a bit of uneven, but that’s not enough to slow the momentum down for Marcus Mariota. He still finished the day with 290 passing yards, 29 rushing yards, and a pair of touchdowns. That almost feels like a floor right now. He has been sensational since the early portion of the season, logging multiple touchdowns in seven straight games. Though his price is on the rise, he is still squarely on the quarterback radar for all formats this week.
Running Backs: Tennessee should be able to control the time of possession in this game. The Bears have all sorts of issues with injuries on their offense, and Tennessee has been installed as a five point road favorite. This is good news not only for Mariota, but for the running game and DeMarco Murray. Despite dealing with a lingering toe injury, he still out-snapped Derrick Henry 70 to 3. I think it’s safe to say that Murray is fine. His numbers on the ground were limited last week as Tennessee fell into an early 21-0 hole, but he did put up a touchdown in the passing game. The workload should be there in a favorable matchup this week, and the Bears rank just 22nd in DVOA against the run. Murray is a top play on the Sunday slate.
Pass Catchers: Even though he didn’t find the end zone last week, the beat goes on for Rishard Matthews. He caught nine passes for 122 yards against the Colts and saw 13 targets in the process. His snap count has been on a steady rise for weeks now. He was at 40% in Week 6, 67% in Week 7, and 82% in Week 10 before reaching a season high of 93% a week ago. He’s not the most talented receiver in the league, but Mariota clearly likes throwing him the ball. His price tag is still very fair, especially on FanDuel, making him a fine play once again here. Outside of him, the only Tennesee pass catcher we can trust is Delanie Walker, who remains a steady, safe option at the tight end spot. He is a reasonable play against the Bears, who have allowed a touchdown to tight ends in each of their last two games.
The Takeaway: Tennessee should be able to run plenty of offensive plays in this one, as the Bears will have trouble maintaining possession and mounting drives. Mariota, Murray, Matthews, and Walker are all solid plays with Tennessee sitting as a solid road favorite against a team that has given up on the 2016 season.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Things are not going well in Chicago. A week after they lost Alshon Jeffery for four weeks thanks to a PED suspension, they lost Jay Cutler to a torn labrum. Backup Brian Hoyer is on injured reserve with a broken arm. That leaves Matt Barkley to handle the quarterback duties to go along with the depleted receiving corps. To make the answer short: don’t play Matt Barkley.
Running Backs: Chicago has one chance to hang in this game, and that will be via their running game. Tennessee ranks in the middle of the pack in rush defense, but this is Chicago’s only hope. Jordan Howard has been their best offensive player this season, and he should get every opportunity to produce in this one. He out-snapped Jeremy Langford 46 to 17 last week despite missing a few plays due to injury, so the workload shouldn’t be a question. The one red flag is Tennessee possibly stacking the box in an attempt to force Barkley to throw. Howard is still worth a look at a reasonable price tag of $6,800 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings.
Pass Catchers: Let’s count the positives for the Bears here. (Pause) Now that the crickets have spoken, let’s get to the negatives. Alshon Jeffery is suspended. Zach Miller is out for the season with a broken foot. Matt Barkley is the quarterback. I suppose you could target Cameron Meredith or Eddie Royal as a punt play at wide receiver, but that approach didn’t work last week against the Giants with Cutler under center. It’s hard to imagine the Bears logging more than 200 yards through the air with all their injuries and suspensions.
The Takeaway: The Bears have been ravaged by offensive injuries more than any other team in the league, and it’s hard to see them having much success with reserves taking over at virtually all the skill positions. Jordan Howard can definitely be considered as a running back option, and he presents the best opportunity for the Bears to move the ball in this game. Outside of him, there isn’t much to like. Tennessee’s defense is also in play and will have an opportunity to create havoc against the passing game, even though they aren’t the most talented unit.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 45.5 | 19 | -7.5 | 45.5 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.3 | 27 | 19 | 26 | Offense | 25.3 | 10 | 32 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.5 | 12 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 26.5 | 25 | 4 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 11 | 14 | 11 | 17 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 15 | 9 | 11 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Robinson | 101 | 51 | 6 | 567 | Woods | 60 | 42 | 1 | 493 | |
| Hurns | 69 | 34 | 2 | 465 | Harvin | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Lee | 63 | 42 | 1 | 544 | Goodwin | 40 | 18 | 3 | 316 | |
| Thomas | 51 | 30 | 4 | 281 | Clay | 53 | 34 | 0 | 306 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Mike Gillislee (BUF RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Robert Woods (BUF WR) – Out (Knee) / Charles Clay (BUF TE) – Questionable (Knee) / LeSean McCoy (BUF RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Thumb) / Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Foot)
JAX Matchup Rating: 4.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 6.0
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles simply cannot avoid the big mistakes. He threw two costly interceptions against the Lions on Sunday, and one of them was run back for a touchdown. That was the tenth pick six of Bortles’ career, and he has only been in the league for 2 1/2 years. He generally still manages to pull decent fantasy numbers out by the end of games, primarily because of garbage time, but I can’t trust him on the road against a halfway decent team. Buffalo ranks 15th in DVOA against the pass, and they aren’t bad enough to tempt me into Bortles here.
Running Backs: The problems that the Jaguars have on the offensive end are not only due to the struggles of Bortles. Their complete inability to establish a run game is a major problem, too. Chris Ivory had just 39 yards on 17 carries last week, and he lost a fumble in Detroit territory. Jacksonville ranks 26th in the league with just 88 team rushing yards per game, and Denard Robinson got in the mix after T.J. Yeldon left with an ankle injury. You can safely avoid this unit in all game types.
Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson had a poor start to the year, but he had been coming on strong thanks to a string of double-figure target games. The targets were necessary because Bortles is not efficient with them; it’s not uncommon to see his wide receivers catch less than 50% of the balls thrown their way. Well, Robinson saw just seven targets against Detroit, and he only caught three of them. That’s the risk inherent in targeting these guys. He did score a touchdown, and Robinson is a major threat in the red zone. That said, he is a GPP-only option at this point. None of the other pass catchers are consistent enough to trust, though Marqise Lee has been playing well of late. He still has a very low floor, though, and can’t be used in cash games. His snap count generally hovers around 70%, so he can be considered in GPPs.
The Takeaway: I have little interest in this Jacksonville offense. They have a low team total and a tough road matchup in Buffalo. It’s getting cold in that part of the country, and weather may be a factor. Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee are worth a head nod look in GPPs, but there isn’t much else to get excited about. There is always the threat of a pick six with Bortles at quarterback, so I wouldn’t mind using the Buffalo defense if that’s something you are interested in.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: It seems strange to consider Taylor as a limited upside guy, as he is generally known as a GPP-only option thanks to his rushing ability. However, it’s hard to trust a guy who is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game on the year. He also hasn’t logged more than two total touchdowns in any game this season. Throw in a matchup against a Jacksonville team that has a under-rated pass defense, and you have an easy pass on Taylor this week. Buffalo lives and dies by their run game and defense, and this week will be no different.
Running Backs: The Bills are relentless with their usage of LeSean McCoy. Even if he is hurt, it seems like the team presses him to play. He left last week’s game early with a dislocated thumb, but he had surgery shortly thereafter and is expected to play in this one. He’s a little pricey for my liking, and I prefer David Johnson, DeMarco Murray, or Melvin Gordon if spending up at running back this week. I just don’t trust a beat up McCoy right now. However, the matchup is favorable, and I wouldn’t talk you off him if you want to go there.
Pass Catchers: Robert Woods looks unlikely to play this week with a knee injury. Sammy Watkins might return, but he is going to be limited in his first game back. Justin Hunter has failed in several career chances at relevance. There isn’t enough volume to go around, either. I’ll take a hard pass on the Buffalo passing game in this one.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Watkins is still on track to play. Woods has been ruled out.
The Takeaway: There isn’t much to love in the passing game against an improving Jacksonville secondary, so it’s LeSean McCoy or bust in the Buffalo offense. McCoy doesn’t come cheap, so a full fade of the Buffalo offense is a reasonable option — even though they are sizable home favorites in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
| Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 40.5 | 18 | -4.5 | 40.5 | 22.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.9 | 25 | 12 | 12 | Offense | 19.9 | 25 | 15 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.7 | 5 | 7 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 22.6 | 17 | 14 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 12 | 2 | 26 | 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | 27 | 22 | 5 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 100 | 66 | 4 | 964 | Wallace | 82 | 48 | 4 | 735 | |
| LaFell | 55 | 33 | 4 | 419 | Smith | 63 | 44 | 3 | 516 | |
| Boyd | 50 | 33 | 1 | 349 | Aiken | 34 | 19 | 0 | 206 | |
| Eifert | 25 | 16 | 1 | 244 | Pitta | 71 | 49 | 0 | 405 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Giovani Bernard (CIN RB) – Out (Knee) / A.J. Green (CIN WR) – Out (Hamstring)
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: I am going to repeat the same mantra for both quarterbacks in this game. At the end of the week, how many times this year have you said to yourself “Imagine what I could have won if I only would have played Andy Dalton this week!” The answer to that is most likely zero. He has 11 passing touchdowns on the season in ten games. Aim higher with your quarterback spot. Fading Dalton on the road isn’t going to be what costs you a GPP win in Week 12.
Running Backs: Both Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green are out extended periods, which will make moving the ball much more difficult. However, it will drastically improve the outlook for Jeremy Hill. He will no longer have to suffer through a 50/50 time share, and that’s great news for him. Rex Burkhead will steal some passing down work, but he is unlikely to get as much of a role as Bernard had. Hill’s power running style isn’t a great fit against a Baltimore defense that stymied Ezekiel Elliott last week and leads the league in DVOA against the run, but the price is simply too cheap given Hill’s newfound opportunity. He is playable in any format on DraftKings at a bargain price tag of $3,900, while he is more of a GPP option on FanDuel at $5,900.
Pass Catchers: The loss of A.J. Green is going to open up copious amounts of targets for the rest of the Cincinnati pass catchers. The most logical upgrade will go to Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd, as they should see plenty of opportunity as the two starting receivers out wide. LaFell is a better play on FanDuel, while Boyd is a better play on DraftKings given their respective price tags. However, it might be Tyler Eifert who gets the biggest bump; he could become the primary read on a lot of plays. Eifert is in play on both sites at the tight end position. Baltimore can be exploited via the pass, so I don’t mind targeting one of these guys. I wouldn’t go overboard, because as I mentioned above, you can’t expect a massive game out of Andy Dalton.
The Takeaway: This isn’t a good spot for the Bengals, as they have to travel to face a tough Baltimore squad without two of their top offensive weapons. That does open up some value, however. Jeremy Hill, Brandon LaFell, and Tyler Boyd all draw some intrigue as value plays this week. Tyler Eifert is one of the top tight end options on the slate. I probably won’t roster more than one Cincinnati player on any individual roster, though.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: I told you it was coming. At the end of the week, how many times this year have you said to yourself “Imagine what I could have won if I only would have played Joe Flacco this week!” The answer to that is most likely zero. He has ten passing touchdowns on the season in ten games. Baltimore should try to lean on their ground game in this one, and, as with Dalton, you’re not likely going to regret a decision to fade Flacco.
Running Backs: Kenneth Dixon is slowly picking up a few more snaps each week, and he saw just three fewer snaps than Terrance West against the Cowboys. This spot is tough to peg from a fantasy perspective in what is becoming a 50/50 time share, but this is a good matchup against a Cincinnati defense that ranks a meager 26th in DVOA against the run. Both West and Dixon cost $4,000 or less on DraftKings, making both of them interesting FLEX options over there. On FanDuel, Dixon is the more appealing option as he is $1,300 cheaper than West. Neither guy is a must play on the full Sunday slate, but there should be opportunity and a lot of carries here.
Pass Catchers: Since Flacco is so difficult to trust, it’s hard to rely on any of the Baltimore receivers. None of them are consistent. Mike Wallace is a big time deep threat and always has some appeal in GPPs, but he can never be trusted in cash games. The safest cash game target is Steve Smith, who seems healthy again and put up a solid 8/99/1 line against Dallas. Dennis Pitta has struggled of late and isn’t on the fantasy radar at tight end these days.
The Takeaway: This game has one of the lowest totals of the week at just over 40 points, so there’s no reason to get super excited for players on either side. The Baltimore running game draws a nice matchup here, but we have a virtual time share with Kenneth Dixon and Terrance West. Neither player is a must roster, but both can be considered as cheap options this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
| Arizona Cardinals | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 50 | 23 | -4 | 50 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 18 | 6 | 13 | Offense | 32.0 | 1 | 2 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.3 | 29 | 31 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 10 | 1 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 32 | 30 | 29 | 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 107 | 75 | 5 | 754 | Jones | 97 | 61 | 5 | 1,105 | |
| Floyd | 54 | 26 | 3 | 379 | Sanu | 59 | 39 | 3 | 430 | |
| Nelson | 36 | 18 | 2 | 243 | Hardy | 13 | 10 | 2 | 83 | |
| Gresham | 27 | 17 | 1 | 176 | Hooper | 20 | 15 | 2 | 249 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Floyd (ARI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring)
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 6.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Arizona is coming off a disappointing loss to the sliding Vikings, and it was mistakes that did them in. Carson Palmer threw a pick six in the red zone, and Minnesota returned the opening kickoff of the second half for a score. The offense has struggled to move the ball at times, and Palmer failed to top 200 passing yards against the Vikings. Pegging his decline was my proudest call of this season. Needless to say, I am not jumping on the bandwagon even in a favorable matchup.
Running Backs: The bandwagon that I can jump on belongs to David Johnson. He racked up 160 total yards last week and scored twice against a good Minnesota defense, and he is basically matchup-proof at this point. That doesn’t matter against an Atlanta defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against the run. With Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott off the weekend slate, Johnson is the clear cut #1 overall running back option. If you can fit him on your roster, by all means go ahead and do it.
Pass Catchers: Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, the entire Arizona receiving corps has disappeared. Michael Floyd is a shell of his former self, and he predictably went back in the dumps last week after one big game. J.J. Nelson caught one pass for zero yards against the Vikings and has been a disappointment since being named a “starter” two weeks ago. John Brown didn’t catch a single pass last week, and his deep threat ability is gone with the 2016 version of Carson Palmer throwing the ball. The only option we can trust is Larry Fitzgerald, who continues to put up steady performances each and every week and remains a bona fide red zone target. I will probably avoid everyone here, but Fitzgerald is in play if you want to target someone.
The Takeaway: Even in a favorable matchup, it’s hard to trust anyone outside of Larry Fitzgerald in the passing game. David Johnson is the easy choice as the #1 overall running back on the weekend slate, and he can confidently be used in any format in a great matchup against the Falcons poor rush defense.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: You wouldn’t expect this, but this game actually has the highest Vegas total of any of the weekend games. Atlanta is projected for just over 27 points here, which is a very high total for a team going up against the Arizona defense. Part of this is a testament to how good of a season Matt Ryan is having. He is only 30 yards behind Drew Brees for the league lead in passing yards, and he has a 24/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Arizona ranks 3rd in DVOA against the pass, so this is an interesting matchup. I think Ryan will go under-owned this week, so I really like him in GPPs. I will probably look elsewhere in cash games, however.
Running Backs: The dual monster is back in Atlanta. Tevin Coleman is practicing in full this week and will be ready to rock coming out of Atlanta’s bye week. On the surface, this would seem to be a big downgrade for Devonta Freeman. However, he seemed to play more effectively when he was splitting time with Coleman, so it might not be the worst move. Freeman is just a little too expensive for my liking given all the other running back options out there, and I might take a wait and see approach to see how this backfield plays out. Coleman is an interesting risk/reward GPP option, and his price tag is pretty cheap on most sites right now. Just double check to make sure that he is going to get his normal allotment of work before you finalize your roster.
Pass Catchers: You can count on Julio Jones seeing plenty of Patrick Peterson in this game, so it will be interesting to see how the Falcons approach it. Jones has been a fantasy beast over the past month and a half outside of a poor game in Green Bay (which is the week where he was the highest owned). You have to pay quite the premium to roster Jones in a tough matchup ($8,700 on FanDuel; $8,500 on DraftKings), and Peterson did a good job of shutting Stefon Diggs down last week. In my opinion, there are better ways to use your salary this week, but Jones is certainly capable of a big game. Perhaps Mohamed Sanu sees a benefit of more coverage rolling Jones’ way, and his price tag is very appealing on most sites. Don’t forget that it was Sanu who stepped up when Jones struggled against the Packers.
The Takeaway: Although we tend to avoid teams that are facing the Cardinals, it’s hard to ignore the high team total that the Falcons bring to the table here along with the fact that this game has the highest total of any game not played on Thursday. Part of that is a testament to how challenging this weekend’s slate is. In any case, we would be remiss to completely avoid the Falcons here. There are questions, though. How much work will Tevin Coleman get in his first game back? Can Julio Jones do enough damage to pay off his hefty price tag, even against Patrick Peterson? Will a reliable second source of targets step up? There are risks here, but the running backs (both Freeman and Coleman) and wide receivers (both Jones and Sanu) are in play, along with Matt Ryan.