NFL Grind Down: Week 12 - Week Three
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
| Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 4:05 p.m. | Levi Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10.5 | 45 | 27.75 | 10.5 | 45 | 17.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | Offense | 13.9 | 32 | 31 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.2 | 23 | 28 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 21.6 | 13 | 7 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 28 | 31 | 28 | 15 | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 14 | 9 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 98 | 73 | 7 | 926 | Boldin | 61 | 36 | 2 | 465 | |
| Floyd | 46 | 27 | 5 | 432 | Smith | 38 | 19 | 2 | 402 | |
| Brown | 57 | 40 | 4 | 627 | Patton | 31 | 19 | 1 | 249 | |
| Fells | 18 | 13 | 3 | 185 | McDonald | 20 | 13 | 1 | 129 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Michael Floyd, John Brown (ARI, Questionable), Chris Johnson (ARI, Probable), Carlos Hyde (SF, Doubtful)
ARI Matchup Rating: 9.0
SF Matchup Rating: 1.5
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: This game could get really ugly, really quickly. We’ve seen Carson Palmer (FD $8,100, DK $7,100) post solid fantasy numbers despite limited attempts in blowouts previously this year, and he’ll need to work that magic again in a game where his team is favored by double-digits. Palmer has been on fire lately, with 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns in his last three starts, but all of those games were at least somewhat competitive. Last time out against San Francisco, the Cardinals won by 40, and Palmer threw only 32 passes. Palmer is viable for tournaments, as he could throw the four or five touchdowns the Cards score early to start the blowout, but he could also hand the ball off 30+ times and only score once or twice.
Running Game: Chris Johnson (FD $6,800, DK $4,600) continues to lead the way out of the backfield for the Cardinals, and if he gets another 18+ touches (something he’s done for four straight games), he should have a solid fantasy outing. The Niners rank 30th in DVOA against the run and second in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs, and have allowed 120 or more yards and a touchdown to runners in three of their last four games. No other back in this offense sees enough volume to be played in daily fantasy, as the Cardinals seem to be content letting Johnson shoulder the offense, even in blowouts.
Pass Catchers: Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $7,400) has rebounded from a bit of a cold streak to post 8+ receptions for 80+ yards in each of his last three outings, and he’s back to getting double-digit targets every week as well. The Cardinals have been dealing with injuries at wideout, and as a result, the veteran is seeing his responsibilities increased to compensate. Michael Floyd (FD $6,400, DK $3,800) and John Brown (FD $5,700, DK $5,000) are both likely to return to action this weekend, but in what should be an easy win, they are the top candidates to get limited reps should the score get out of hand. However, unless someone is deemed inactive, it’s too risky to dig into the backup wideouts to find value. Fitzgerald is the only Arizona wideout I trust this week, and even then, he carries the same caveat as Palmer. He could be limited due to the score getting out of hand early on, and he’ll need to get his production in early to be fantasy relevant.
The Takeaway: Chris Johnson is viable for cash games, as he’ll receive a ton of carries against a bad defense, while the passing game are limited to tournament status due to blowout concerns. The Arizona defense is a top play this weekend, as they generate turnovers and should keep the 49ers to a very low point total.
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: The Cardinals rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, but even if they ranked 24th, I couldn’t recommend Blaine Gabbert (FD $6,000, DK $5,000). He hasn’t been as bad as he could be through two starts, but he’s got such limited receiving options and is just not a very good player.
Running Game: Shaun Draughn (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) will likely start again for the Niners, who are in no rush to bring back a promising young back like Carlos Hyde (FD $6,000, DK $3,800) to play in such a lost season. Draughn has looked pretty good as a receiver out of the backfield for the 49ers, and the Cardinals are vulnerable to backs in the passing game (as Gio Bernard showed last week), so I could see using him in a PPR format. He’s the lone San Francisco player worthy of selection this weekend in DFS.
Pass Catchers: Anquan Boldin (FD $5,700, DK $4,000) is as consistent and reliable of a receiver as you’ll find, but he’s limited by injury and his quarterback, so there are better places to invest your salary this weekend. The Cardinals rank in the top six in DVOA against WR1 and WR2, and have mainly been burned by quicker receivers like Martavis Bryant, Doug Baldwin and Tavon Austin. No other SF pass catcher is worthy of consideration in such a tough matchup.
The Takeaway: Shaun Draughn is viable as a PPR tournament play, and Anquan Boldin has very, very limited potential, but otherwise, steer clear of an offense expected to be held well under 20 points at home against a superior division rival.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 44.5 | 20.25 | -4 | 44.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 12 | 11 | 6 | Offense | 22.8 | 16 | 26 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.2 | 7 | 2 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 19.1 | 5 | 29 | 5 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 2 | 3 | 29 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 | 1 | 29 | 28 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 114 | 79 | 5 | 1169 | Baldwin | 56 | 44 | 3 | 539 | |
| Bryant | 42 | 22 | 5 | 461 | Kearse | 38 | 25 | 1 | 382 | |
| Wheaton | 32 | 16 | 1 | 273 | Lockett | 34 | 25 | 3 | 314 | |
| Miller | 50 | 34 | 1 | 345 | Graham | 66 | 44 | 2 | 530 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Thomas Rawls, Doug Baldwin (SEA, Questionable), Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Out)
PIT Matchup Rating: 3.5
SEA Matchup Rating: 5.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: There is no tougher decision in fantasy sports than deciding between the elite offense or the elite defense. Ben Roethlisberger (FD $7,800, DK $6,700) has proven to be one of the top fantasy (and reality) quarterbacks when healthy, but the Seahawks rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing passers and are top ten in pass defense rankings by both Football Outsiders and numberFire. Seattle will be playing at home, where they’ve shut down lesser quarterbacks but did allow three touchdown passes to Carson Palmer. Roethlisberger is much closer to Palmer than he is to Jimmy Clausen, and he has the weapons to succeed against any defense. He’s in play for tournaments, but don’t go crazy.
Running Game: Opposing runners average 3.7 yards per carry against the Seahawks, and only two backs have found the end zone this season against Seattle. No back has 100 yards rushing in a game, but a couple have totaled 100 scrimmage yards thanks to catching a few passes. The path to a good game against the Seahawks as a running back is to get goal-line carries and receptions, which are two things DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,100, DK $5,700) does as the lead back for the Steelers. He’s incredibly risky, as Seattle has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this year, but he has the skills to piece together a decent game. If you trust the Pittsburgh offense to put points on the board in this one, I think you have to lean toward the passing game, but it’s possible that DeAngelo could recreate what his former teammate Jonathan Stewart was able to do against Seattle, and find the end zone a couple of times and provide a nice return at a very low ownership.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown (FD $9,000, DK $8,700) is obviously the top option for the Steelers, but as such, he’s likely to be shadowed by Richard Sherman. Sherman isn’t shutting down receivers left and right, but he is severely limiting production on a per-route basis, according to Pro Football Focus. Based on the way the two have performed this year, it’s easy to argue that Brown is the “better player” and will get the advantage in this matchup, but that will still require accurate throws and opportunities near the end zone to produce a fantasy outing worthy of his price tag. Any of the other elite WR options (Hopkins, Jones, Beckham) are preferred over Brown, but will also have higher ownership numbers. He’s a flier for tournaments. And while Martavis Bryant (FD $6,700, DK $5,600) will see more favorable matchups, he’ll also be limited from making many (if any) huge plays over the top of the defense by Earl Thomas. The only pass catcher not named Brown that I’m considering for the Steelers is Heath Miller (FD $5,300, DK $3,100), as the Seahawks are weak against tight ends (third in points allowed, 31st in DVOA against TE), and Roethlisberger has targeted Miller on 40 of his 211 pass attempts this year, second to only Antonio Brown. If Big Ben stays true to that ratio of targets, Miller should see at least six passes thrown his way, and against the Seahawks, that’s enough for a big day for a tight end.
The Takeaway: Heath Miller is arguably the top option for the Steeler offense, while Big Ben and Brown are viable in tournaments.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: The Steelers have been surprisingly good on defense this year, with most of their success coming against the run. They’re not bad against the pass (16th in DVOA, 15th in fantasy points allowed), but it’s definitely the way to attack their defense. Even Johnny Manziel was able to rack up 372 yards and a touchdown against their secondary. Russell Wilson (FD $7,600, DK $6,000) may have turned his season around against San Francisco last week, or he may have just taken advantage of one of the worst defenses in the league. Prior to his three-score outing against his division rival, Wilson had thrown only one touchdown in eight of nine games. He has yet to rush for a score, and he’s probably due for a rushing touchdown as well, so there might be some positive regression and improvement on the way for Wilson. He’s a decent mid-range QB option for any format.
Running Game: The Steelers are 30th in points allowed to opposing running backs this season, and sixth in DVOA against the run. But Thomas Rawls (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) has been on fire, rushing for 100 or more yards in three of his four games with 16 or more rushing attempts. The Steelers did allow big games to Justin Forsett and Charcandrick West, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Rawls to have a big game, but his expectations should be tempered just a bit by looking at the other rushing stat lines produced by Steeler opponents. Runners are averaging 3.8 yards per carry against Pittsburgh this year, and running backs have scored only two touchdowns on the season against the Steelers. Rawls is viable for cash games, but the more I dig into the numbers, the more I prefer the less proven backs in better matchups (Yeldon and Allen). On DraftKings, you can choose all three, and get 60+ carries at a cheap combined price, but on FanDuel, you have to make a choice, and I think I’ll be sitting Rawls in favor of the other two.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) is the only Seattle wideout to see double-digit targets in a game since Week 1, but he’s also been known to receive three or four targets in this deep Seahawk offense. He has plenty of PPR potential, but not a very good PPR floor. Tyler Lockett (FD $5,600, DK $3,000) did catch two touchdown passes last week, but his workload has been so insecure this season that he is a very, very risky play in daily fantasy. Jimmy Graham (FD $5,500, DK $4,800) is the safest bet among pass catchers for Seattle, as he has eight or more targets in five games this season, and the Steelers have allowed the fourth-most points to opposing tight ends this year. But even still, these players are all secondary tournament options, and Russell Wilson can be used without a stack in GPP due to the uncertainty of this receiving corps.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson and Thomas Rawls are the top plays for Seattle in what could be a surprisingly high-scoring game considering the teams involved, but there’s a lot of risk and uncertainty. There are safer cash game options in other games, so reserve Steelers and Seahawks for your GPP lineups.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
| New England Patriots | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.3 | 2 | 1 | 28 | Offense | 22.2 | 19 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 18.2 | 1 | 24 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 17 | 1 | 12 | New England Patriots | 13 | 6 | 27 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| LaFell | 38 | 17 | 0 | 306 | Thomas | 111 | 71 | 2 | 875 | |
| Amendola | 60 | 49 | 2 | 531 | Sanders | 85 | 46 | 4 | 639 | |
| Dobson | 21 | 13 | 0 | 141 | Latimer | 10 | 5 | 1 | 57 | |
| Gronkowski | 82 | 51 | 8 | 843 | Daniels | 51 | 28 | 3 | 314 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Danny Amendola, Keshawn Martin (NE, Questionable), Owen Daniels, Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, Questionable), Peyton Manning (DEN, Out)
NE Matchup Rating: 6.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The Patriots may be undefeated, but they’re not flawless. Tom Brady (FD $9,000, DK $8,000) had his worst game of the season in Week 11 against the Bills, as he was chased around and under pressure, and throwing to a depleted corps of pass catchers. The worst may be yet to come, however, as the Broncos host the Patriots this week, and welcome them into their home stadium to face their elite defense. The Broncos have not allowed a 300-yard passer, nor have they allowed more than 2 passing touchdowns from a single QB this season. Brady really needs to hit both thresholds to be viable at his prices, and considering his hurting skill position players, lacking offensive line, and tough matchup, I’m inclined to fade Brady, even if I believe the Patriots find a way to win despite these seemingly major matchup concerns.
Running Game: The Broncos have the best DVOA pass defense in the NFL, but are just ninth against the run, and are in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed to opposing runners. Running backs have scored 12 times so far this season against Denver, including six in the last four weeks. LeGarrette Blount (FD $7,300, DK $5,100) will likely see his fair share of carries, but he’s a very limited player who doesn’t really pose a huge threat to a talented defense like Denver’s. James White (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) doesn’t see a ton of touches, but is a better receiver out of the backfield than Blount, and that could open up opportunities if Blount is regularly stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Blount is still the most likely player to score, and the Patriots will find ways to move the ball, and in goal-line situations, Blount will get his number called. He is a very weak tournament option.
Pass Catchers: The status of Danny Amendola (FD $6,100, DK $4,700) will really dictate how to handle the Patriots receiving situation. Amendola is a top play once again if he’s active, as he’ll see a ton of targets as the team’s best healthy receiver. He’ll have a nightmare of a matchup with Chris Harris, but so will every other wideout for New England, as the Broncos have the best secondary in the league. Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $7,900) is always in play, and especially against Denver, who rank a modest 16th against tight ends in DVOA despite elite rankings against every other position. If Amendola is out, the Patriots will have to find a way to get the ball to Gronk, and even if Danny suits up, Gronkowski needs to be involved for the Pats to move the ball reliably. Brandon LaFell (FD $6,900, DK $4,300) will struggle to get open against the elite corners for Denver, but is still in play thanks to his quarterback. If Amendola is out, Keshawn Martin (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) (if he plays) and Chris Harper (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) are the players likely to move up the depth chart into bigger roles.
The Takeaway: Rob Gronkowski is the top play for the Patriots, while Brady, LaFell, Amendola and Blount are all viable but risky options. The Patriots are going to score points, but how they manage to score them, and whether they’re enough to pay off the high price tags for daily fantasy purposes remain the big questions ahead of this weekend’s NFL action. I will be exercising caution with the New England offense.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) will get another start under center for the Broncos, and he’ll go up against a New England defense that has been average against the pass this year. Tyrod Taylor was kept out of the end zone, but prior to that game, the Pats allowed multiple passing touchdowns to Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, and Taylor in the Bills’ and Patriots’ first matchup. Osweiler looked decent against a poor Bears defense, but playing the Patriots in a pivotal AFC matchup is a totally different situation. There are safer bargain plays at QB, so reserve Osweiler for your super-contrarian tournament lineups, or just leave him on the bench.
Running Game: The Patriots have a top-ten run defense by both DVOA standards and fantasy points allowed standards, as they’ve given up only five touchdowns to running backs this season. However, they’ve also faced the second-fewest rushing attempts in the league, which helps keep the volume of yards and potential touchdowns low. They’re still a good per-attempt defense (DVOA takes that into account, and their yards per attempt allowed sits at 3.9, better than league average), which means it won’t be an easy matchup for the Broncos. But Denver may be afforded the luxury of running against the Patriots more often than the average team, as this game should stay competitive, and Denver will want to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Osweiler’s hands as much as possible. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,300, DK $4,000) and C.J. Anderson (FD $5,800, DK $3,500) could both see 10+ touches, but as long as Hillman continues to get more opportunities (as he did last week), he’ll be the preferred option. Hillman is risky, but he’ll also be very low owned, and has the potential for 20+ touches and a majority of the red zone work.
Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $7,400) and a healthy Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,500, DK $6,800) are obviously the two top options in the Denver passing game, but with good corners on the other side of the ball in this game, it will be tough to trust either one. Osweiler has good rapport with Thomas, and the duo could combine for a touchdown in this one, but he’s very risky as the team’s obvious top option which the Patriots will look to neutralize. Sanders, if healthy, will be incredibly low owned, but his chemistry with his new QB and his ability to play at full speed against a good secondary are big questions that may not be worth risking that much salary for answers. And according to Football Outsiders, it has been WR1 who have done the best against the New England secondary this year, while third and fourth options have also succeeded. But since the other wideouts for Denver are scattered and unreliable, I’ll stick with Thomas if I’m rostering any Denver pass catcher.
The Takeaway: The Broncos don’t have the league’s most prolific offense, but the Patriots aren’t a defense to fear. This should be a low-scoring, competitive affair, but there’s potentially a nice fantasy day to be had by Thomas or Hillman.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
| Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 17 | 9 | 22 | Offense | 18.6 | 28 | 6 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.7 | 30 | 25 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 20 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 12 | 25 | 25 | 19 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 | 9 | 30 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Aiken | 66 | 37 | 3 | 456 | Benjamin | 82 | 48 | 4 | 729 | |
| Givens | 25 | 13 | 1 | 193 | Hawkins | 43 | 27 | 0 | 276 | |
| Brown | 30 | 14 | 0 | 112 | Hartline | 44 | 22 | 2 | 259 | |
| Gillmore | 42 | 29 | 4 | 385 | Barnidge | 74 | 48 | 7 | 667 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Taylor Gabriel, Andrew Hawkins (CLE, Questionable)
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Even in a great matchup, I don’t trust Matt Schaub (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) as a daily fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t have any good weapons in his receiving corps, and he hasn’t started a game in two years, when he was last seen throwing two picks in a 16-10 loss to the Titans. It’s entirely possible that he could reclaim the form he had several years ago with the Texans, when he was one of the better mid-tier passers in the NFL, but I’ll take the chance of missing out on the first week of that process.
Running Game: Javorius Allen (FD $6,300, DK $4,600) has been waiting for his chance with this Baltimore offense, sitting behind Justin Forsett and getting a decent amount of reps for a backup, and now he has his shot. His stat line against the Rams wasn’t all that impressive, but the Rams are one of the best defenses in the league, while the Browns rank 29th in run defense DVOA and eighth in points allowed to opposing RBs. Seven different backs have gone over 90 yards rushing against the Browns, and several runners have had nice days as receivers against Cleveland, as well. Allen is capable as a runner or in the passing game, and is the only show in town in the backfield for Baltimore, so expect 20+ touches in a premier matchup. He’s a solid play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Matt Schaub always had good production when throwing to tight ends in Houston, so Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) is in play as a tight end, otherwise known as the backup quarterback’s best friend. He’s the only player in the passing game I can trust, as Kamar Aiken (FD $6,100, DK $4,900) mainly drew his value from Flacco’s ability to get him the ball, and we can’t be sure Schaub will have the same chemistry or ability to throw Aiken open. Gillmore is a GPP play, while Aiken and Givens are very, very speculative tournament options you can throw into a cheap lineup and hope for the best.
The Takeaway: The Ravens offense will likely run through young Buck Allen this weekend, as he’s experienced in the offense and capable as a runner and receiver. The passing game is risky, as Schaub could continue his trend of throwing crippling interceptions near the end of his Houston career, but Crockett Gillmore is as safe as you can get in a Schaub-led offense.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The Browns are going with a backup quarterback, as well, but in this case, Josh McCown (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) has proven to at least be fantasy relevant, even if he’s not a great real-life QB. Apart from a game against a tough St. Louis defense, McCown had multiple touchdown passes in every game in which he threw more than eight passes, including a 450-yard, three-total-touchdown effort against this same Baltimore team. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. McCown is dirt cheap and well worth a spot in your lineup, in cash games or tournaments.
Running Game: The Ravens are better against the run than they are against the pass, ranking 15th against the ground game according to Football Outsiders, and fifth according to numberFire. However, in these two teams’ previous matchup, Duke Johnson (FD $6,000, DK $3,900) hauled in six passes for 55 yards from McCown, something he could do again with his preferred quarterback back under center. He’s only in play on PPR sites, but if he manages six catches and 60 yards through the air, he won’t need much more to hit value. However, due to the tough matchup, I’ll be avoiding Isaiah Crowell (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), who has not topped 50 yards rushing since Week 4 (which came against the league’s worst run defense).
Pass Catchers: Of the 254 passes thrown by McCown this season, 110 have been nearly evenly split by Gary Barnidge (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) and Travis Benjamin (FD $5,900, DK $5,300). Duke Johnson comes in third, as the only other player to receive more than 30 targets when McCown is throwing the ball. These are the three players to focus on when stacking this offense for tournaments, and Barndige is a safe play apart from McCown in any format. The Ravens have a very low points allowed total against tight ends, but according to DVOA, they’re below average against the position. They were torched by Barnidge earlier this year, and have faced a pretty easy tight end schedule for most of this season. McCown and Barndige have a good chemistry, and that should connect for a touchdown against the Ravens. Benjamin has been quiet since his four touchdowns in three games to start the season, as his volume dropped off in Week 7, only to return last time out against the Steelers. McCown is the better QB for Benjamin, as he’ll be throwing more often, and with more accuracy than Manziel. Look for the speedster to break a big play against the Baltimore defense, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wideouts this year.
The Takeaway: McCown and Barndige are the top plays and the top stack for this Cleveland offense, while Johnson (in a PPR) and Benjamin are solid tournament plays. The Cleveland defense is a GPP option, as Schaub’s ability to throw pick sixes is unmatched in the NFL. It’s tough to predict defensive touchdowns, but Schaub provides better odds than most other quarterbacks.