NFL Grind Down: Week 12

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2016-10-20 20:22:31

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.

Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans

New Orleans Saints						Houston Texans
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	47.5	22.25				-3	47.5	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.5	7	2	17		Offense	20.8	25	8	29
Opp. Defense	22.8	15	5	20		Opp. Defense	31.5	32	31	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	18	22	5	10		New Orleans Saints	32	28	22	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cooks	80	50	6	709		Hopkins	135	76	9	1,045
Snead	64	42	3	632		Washington	61	30	3	456
Colston	48	33	1	393		Shorts	57	31	2	392
Watson	58	46	3	551		Fiedorowicz	14	11	1	119

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Mark Ingram (NO, Probable), Brian Hoyer (HOU, Probable),

NO Matchup Rating: 7.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 7.5

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: It’s really easy to think of the Texans as a joke of a team, especially if you watched them earlier this season. But those who have been paying attention to the terrible AFC South know that Houston is a real playoff contender, and that their defense has taken a big step forward in recent weeks. During their three-game winning streak, they’ve allowed point totals of 6, 6 and 17. They have not allowed over 300 total yards in any of those games, after allowing at least 300 in every game through Week 7, and their seven turnovers forced in weeks 8-11 are more than the six forced Weeks 1-7. So if you were ready to blindly throw Drew Brees (FD $8,200, DK $7,300) into your lineups, might I suggest you think twice about this decision? Brees has always been a less productive player away from home, and a road game against an on-fire defense seems like a terrible spot to roll out Brees in any sort of cash game or high-dollar GPP. He is always capable of a big game, but against a defense that is trending toward a top-ten finish in Football Outsiders’ DVOA against the pass and in numberFire’s pass defense rankings, I’m not going to invest heavily in that possibility.

Running Game: The Houston defense has buckled down in recent weeks against running backs, but using the full season as our sample size, we should look to the running game if we expect regression on Sunday against New Orleans. The Texans rank 19th in DVOA and 24th in numberFire’s rankings against the run, and have allowed the 11th most FanDuel points to the position this year. Their play against opposing runners has been up and down all season, and so has the play of Mark Ingram (FD $7,400, DK $6,400). Prior to Week 10’s odd five-carry performance, Ingram received 16 or more touches in four straight games, and in eight of his first nine starts. He should be good for a return to 16-20 opportunities in this one, but that’s not a given, nor is any sort of good production on those touches. He’s tournament-only for me, but a strong enough option there to consider him a top tournament option.

Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $7,300, DK $6,400) continues to provide the most consistent source of volume on the New Orleans offense, even if he hasn’t done a whole lot with that volume so far. The Saints know he’s the sort of player who can turn the simplest of plays into a long touchdown, and rely on him on a regular basis. He has five or more targets in every game this season, with eight or more in seven of ten starts. Cooks plays all over the formation, as do all New Orleans wideouts (according to PFF), meaning his snaps against Jonathan Joseph will be random enough to not consider individual matchup as an issue when rostering the speedy Saints receiver. Willie Snead (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) saw his role fall off the map last time out, but did struggle with injuries heading into that game. He’s going to be under-owned after such a big letdown game, but is risky in a game against a solid pass defense. Benjamin Watson (FD $5,400, DK $4,000) has at least five targets in each of his last six appearances, and is a top red zone threat for Drew Brees, but the Texans rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends and don’t seem to be the right team to inspire anyone to heavily invest in Watson.

The Takeaway: This game opened with a higher total than is currently available, and I might still take the under. The Texans are playing great defense recently, and the Saints aren’t in their friendly home confines, so this one could be a total fantasy disappointment. Keep Saints out of your cash games, and stick to GPPs for Brees, Ingram, Cooks and Snead.

Houston Texans

Quarterback: In a game featuring Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Brandin Cooks, would you ever expect Brian Hoyer (FD $7,100, DK $5,000) to be the top play? Hoyer has been dealing with some scary head injuries, but is apparently looking good to go for Sunday, and if he starts, he’s one of the best plays of the weekend. Prior to his injury-shortened Week 10 game against the Bengals, Hoyer had multiple touchdown passes and at least 230 yards passing in each of his last five games, two of which were relief appearances. He has four games with a 100+ passer rating on the season, and will face a defense this week which has allowed the highest passer rating against in the entire NFL by a wide margin. The Saints have allowed the most passing touchdowns, have grabbed the fewest interceptions, and have a .5 yard lead on the field in yards per attempt allowed. This is a terrible pass defense that will be easily broken down by Hoyer, who is a competent quarterback with a superstar wideout and more than enough talent to throw for three touchdowns and 250+ yards at a bargain price. Hoyer is viable in all formats on all sites, and is arguably the best play at QB on this slate.

Running Game: The running back situation for Houston is not so clear, nor is the matchup quite as favorable. Yes, the Saints are not a great run defense, but they’re not as historically bad as their pass defense. Last time out, the Texans split opportunities across three backs, and while Jonathan Grimes (FD $5,200, DK $3,000) had the best numbers, he also saw limited work. Grimes appears to be stuck in a role as a change of pace when compared to the plodding Alfred Blue (FD $5,900, DK $4,500), but there is reason for optimism for the Houston running backs. In Week 10, the Saints allowed 104 rushing yards to the previously invisible Alfred Morris, and in Week 9 they gave up 88 yards rushing to Antonio Andrews. This defense has been known to make otherwise mediocre (or worse) players relevant for fantasy purposes, so tossing Blue onto a GPP lineup, or using Grimes on a PPR site, could pay big dividends if you’re passing on Hoyer.

Pass Catchers: I don’t want to insult your intelligence as a reader, but I have to mention that DeAndre Hopkins (FD $9,400, DK $9,100) is a great play this weekend. Hopkins has seen 11 or more targets in every game this season, and that sort of volume against the league’s worst pass defense is a definite recipe for success. Hopkins will be covered by the talented Delvin Breaux, but I’m only going to allow that to serve as an ownership level reduction for Nuk, who will still get 10-15 passes thrown his way, and has the skill and a competent enough quarterback to haul a few of those in, with the possibility for a big play or two. Breaux will more than likely follow Hopkins around, which will leave the absolutely terrible Brandon Browner and whichever other corners the Saints find hanging around their practice field this week against Nate Washington (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) and Cecil Shorts (FD $5,600, DK $3,600). Both are great tournament plays, especially in a stack with Hoyer. I would favor Washington, who plays outside more often and will see Browner on a more regular basis. The Saints have been terrible against tight ends this season, as well, and Ryan Griffin (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) appears to be the tight end of choice for Houston. He could get five targets against the worst tight end defense in the NFL, so you could do worse as a minimum-priced punt.

The Takeaway: Hoyer, Hopkins and Washington are the top plays for Houston, with Shorts, Blue, Grimes and Griffin all representing decent options as well. This Houston offense should score 3-4 times against the Saints, and has upside for more, as New Orleans has allowed some huge point totals in recent weeks. You’ll want to invest in this offense in some way, shape or form this weekend.

St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals

St. Louis Rams						Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Paul Brown Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	42	16.5				-9	42	25.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	17.9	31	32	7		Offense	26.6	5	10	12
Opp. Defense	18.6	4	17	13		Opp. Defense	19.9	10	8	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cincinnati Bengals	7	12	13	14		St. Louis Rams	2	20	4	12
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	39	18	1	341		Green	92	59	4	848
Austin	55	31	6	551		Sanu	35	24	1	360
Quick	15	4	0	51		Jones	67	39	3	518
Cook	47	26	0	321		Eifert	64	43	11	482

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Case Keenum (STL, Questionable), Stedman Bailey (STL, Suspended)

STL Matchup Rating: 2.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 5.5

St. Louis Rams

Quarterback: Case Keenum (FD $5,800, DK $5,000) was terrible in his first appearance this season for the Rams, but St. Louis is so committed to keeping Nick Foles on the bench that Keenum was allowed to play through a concussion. He should return to action this week, but even if he doesn’t, you don’t want to target this passing game. The Bengals are a top-ten pass defense, and apart from Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer, quarterbacks just don’t score fantasy points against this defense this year. Don’t try to get cute. There are countless other QB options.

Running Game: The Bengals have only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season, and only one 100+ yard rusher. Todd Gurley (FD $8,800, DK $7,500) is obviously a special player, and one that you don’t want to completely ignore, as he’s scored a touchdown in five straight games and gets 20+ touches nearly every time out. But this is a tough matchup with a very low total for the Rams, so there are a lot of red flags for a player priced as highly as Gurley. I will use Gurley in tournaments and may find room for him in cash games, but this seems like a week to go cheap at RB (there are several bargain options in great spots) and spend up at wide receiver for head-to-head and 50/50 games.

Pass Catchers: Only four receivers have gone for more than 70 yards in a game against the Bengals this year, and the Rams are the least likely candidates to add a fifth to that list. No player is seeing consistent volume, the quarterback play is terrible, and the matchup isn’t favorable at all. There is no reason to spend any fantasy salary on any Rams passing game options this weekend.

The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is always in play, as the rookie running back has unique talent and a secure workload. Otherwise, steer clear of the Rams, who will struggle to score 17 points against a tough Cincy defense.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback: The Rams are an elite defense against all phases, ranking third in DVOA against the pass and run. This makes the decision to roster Andy Dalton (FD $7,900, DK $6,100) quite difficult. Dalton bounced back from his huge letdown game against Houston to play well against Arizona in a loss, giving us a reason to be optimistic about him, even in a tough matchup. But only two quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against the Rams this year, and only one has thrown for 300 yards. Dalton has earned enough respect to say he’s not totally out of consideration, but against a team that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, he’s a very risky option.

Running Game: Jeremy Hill (FD $6,500, DK $4,700) had yet another game in which he was not particularly effective, but he punched in goal-line carries and paid off for his fantasy owners. Giovani Bernard (FD $6,300, DK $4,500) continues to be the better all-around back, but the duo will split time, and Hill will get goal-line touches even when Bernard sees most of the “red zone” work. The Rams are an elite run defense, but Kendall Langford, Buck Allen, Duke Johnson and Le’Veon Bell all had success as receivers against this team, and I think Bernard can follow in their footsteps. The Rams rank 14th in points allowed to opposing running backs thanks in large part to points allowed via the passing game, so fire up Bernard in GPPs, and fade Hill in a very tough “between the tackles” matchup.

Pass Catchers: The Rams rank fourth and third against number one and number two wideouts, respectively, according to Football Outsiders, and have generally kept wideouts from scoring all season. Even for a superstar like A.J. Green (FD $8,200, DK $7,400), this is a matchup to worry about. Green has one of the more inconsistent workloads for a superstar receiver, and while he’s never out of the picture for tournaments, he’s not in a great spot this weekend. The other Bengal wideouts are in even worse spots, as the Rams are solid across the board in the secondary. They have struggled a bit against tight ends this year, having allowed three 100+ yard performances to the position, meaning Tyler Eifert (FD $6,200, DK $5,800) is definitely in play. The Bengals are going to score a couple of touchdowns at the very least, and Eifert is among the most likely to be involved.

The Takeaway: Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard are the top options for the Bengals, and both make for excellent tournament targets against a Rams defense that most people will know to avoid. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to like in this matchup.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons

Minnesota Vikings						Atlanta Falcons
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Georgia Dome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		2	45.5	21.75				-2	45.5	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.1	23	30	3		Offense	25.0	8	5	13
Opp. Defense	21.4	12	14	1		Opp. Defense	18.4	3	6	17
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Atlanta Falcons	5	30	2	25		Minnesota Vikings	9	7	12	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	52	28	1	324		Jones	134	89	6	1189
Diggs	56	36	2	592		White	39	21	1	254
Wright	31	17	0	273		Hankerson	46	26	3	327
Rudolph	47	29	4	288		Tamme	56	39	1	446

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Hankerson, Devonta Freeman, Matt Bryant (ATL, Out)

MIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 4.5

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: The Falcons have a respectable pass defense, but so do the Packers, who allowed Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,500, DK $5,000) to score a season-high 20 FanDuel points last weekend. Bridgewater has been incredibly mediocre this season, playing like an upside-free Alex Smith clone, and it took a blowout loss to a division rival to get him to the 20-point mark in daily fantasy football. The Falcons play slow, as do the Vikings, and this game shouldn’t get out of hand, so I have no interest in Bridgewater this weekend.

Running Game: With touchdowns in his last three, and 100 or more rushing yards in three of his last four, Adrian Peterson (FD $9,000, DK $7,300) is a rare example of consistency at a running back position lacking in reliable options this year. He’s priced accordingly, and won’t always get the desired return on investment, but no back has higher upside, and no back has a more secure role. The Falcons rank fourth in fantasy points allowed to opposing backs, and while a lot of that is propped up by touchdowns and passing game involvement, and doesn’t represent the whole body of work for the Atlanta defense, Peterson is more than capable of a “fluky” touchdown or a catch out of the backfield that goes the distance. Truth be told, Atlanta is a mediocre matchup for backs, but that doesn’t really limit the upside for AD. Peterson is, as always, a top option this weekend.

Pass Catchers: According to Pro Football Focus, the Falcons play sides with their corners, and the Vikings typically line up their wideouts on the same swides, meaning we can get a good idea of the individual matchups in this one. Stefon Diggs (FD $6,600, DK $4,800) plays over 60% of the time on the offensive left, meaning the right corner for Atlanta (Robert Alford or Jalen Collins) will cover the surprisingly good rookie receiver. This puts Mike Wallace (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) across from Desmond Trufant more often than not, and Trufant is one of the league’s elite corners. That should make the choice easy for you if you’re investing in an ATL wideout, although I wouldn’t, as the Falcons have allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points to opposing receivers this year. They have struggled at times against tight ends, but Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,400) is more hype and potential than actual production, and is very, very difficult to trust. Ryan Griffin is a better bargain TE for contrarian tournament lineups.

The Takeaway: The Vikings have one of the most lackluster passing games in the NFL, but do have a Hall of Fame running back who has a good enough matchup.

Atlanta Falcons

Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $7,900, DK $6,900) threw a season-high three touchdowns to go with his season-high three interceptions last time out, and picked up only 280 yards on 46 passing attempts. Ryan has been one of the biggest disappointments this season, as he’s been a letdown in some good spots and generally failed to live up to the expectations he set by throwing 5% of his passes for touchdowns from 2009 to 2012. He’s statistically the same quarterback he’s always been apart from this drop in touchdown efficiency (he’s throwing a TD on 3.7% of his attempts this year, the lowest of his career), which could mean positive regression is coming, or it could mean he’s just not the same player we saw a few years ago. The Vikings have a pretty good pass defense (15th in DVOA) that has been very tough from a fantasy points allowed perspective (25th in FanDuel points per game allowed), and despite a big loss last week, they still largely held Aaron Rodgers in check. Ryan is not on my radar this week for any format.

Running Game: If Devonta Freeman (FD $8,900, DK $8,300) is unable to suit up for the Falcons this weekend, that opens up a solid value play in Tevin Coleman (FD $6,200, DK $4,300). Coleman was on everyone’s radar in Week 1, but got hurt early in the season and watched from the sidelines as Freeman started going nuts, scoring touchdowns on every other drive. Coleman is a talented rookie who has shown flashes of brilliance, and would face a defense ranked 28th in DVOA against the run, but 27th in points allowed to the position. Coleman might be more popular than his chances of a good game would suggest, but his price is great for a player likely to see 20 touches. He’s not a must-play, but he’s an appealing GPP piece if Freeman is ruled out.

Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,300, DK $9,400) will line up against a defense that has allowed 133 yards and two scores to Keenan Allen and 116 yards and a touchdown to Alshon Jeffery this season, as well as two 80+ yard, one-touchdown games to Calvin Johnson. The Vikings don’t have an answer for star number-one wideouts, and Jones certainly qualifies as one of those. Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman aren’t matchups to fear for an elite player like Julio, and he can be used in any format, as is normally the case. Leonard Hankerson (FD $5,400, DK $3,700) and Roddy White (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) both saw a healthy amount of targets in their last game, but with Hankerson out this year, White will need to help fill the void. Whoever fills in for Hankerson will get the tougher matchup inside against Captain Munnerlyn, so White is the way to go in a contrarian GPP lineup. Jacob Tamme (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) is also an appealing option with Hankerson out, as he’ll assume some “possession receiver” duties. And if you’re checking last week’s box score and notice Patrick DiMarco (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) scoring two touchdowns, note that he 1. is a fullback 2. had seven targets coming into last week and 3. is not worthy of your DFS consideration.

The Takeaway: The Falcons face a Minnesota defense that has appeared to be overachieving all season, but Atlanta might not be the team to expose any of their weaknesses. Julio Jones should have a good game, but otherwise, this offense lacks in appealing options.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

New York Giants						Washington Redskins
Sunday – 1 p.m.						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	46.5	24.5				2.5	46.5	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.3	4	14	26		Offense	22.1	20	20	24
Opp. Defense	25.3	24	12	30		Opp. Defense	25.3	24	32	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	23	19	24	8		New York Giants	31	23	20	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Beckham	104	63	8	866		Garcon	71	46	3	473
Randle	55	39	3	475		Jackson	20	10	1	146
Harris	40	25	4	315		Crowder	56	43	1	409
Donnell	41	29	2	223		Reed	66	47	6	443

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Larry Donnell (NYG, Doubtful)

NYG Matchup Rating: 6.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 4.0

New York Giants

Quarterback: Eli Manning (FD $7,700, DK $6,500) had two touchdowns against Washington the first time these teams met this season, and since then, Manning has five multi-touchdown outings in seven games. Eli has all the upside in the world, but also has the potential for a total letdown, as he showed in Philly against a poor Eagles pass defense in Week 6. Washington ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass, and has allowed 13 passing touchdowns in their last five games. I will never be able to trust Manning in cash games, but he is certainly a tournament option this weekend.

Running Game: The season high for carries by a Giants running back is 14, and the season high for rushing yards by a New York RB is 63. This running game is entirely avoidable, even in a matchup with a mediocre Washington run defense.

Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,100, DK $8,700) is a superstar, and is in play any time he suits up for the Giants. He had a decent performance in his first game against Washington this season, totaling 79 yards and a touchdown. He’ll see coverage from the capable Bashaud Breeland for quite a few of his snaps, but will otherwise be covered by Will Blackmon, or whoever else Washington calls on to replace the injured Chris Culliver. Culliver was among the worst corners in the league, but it’s unlikely that Washington has a player sitting around who is “better.” Beckham is always in play, and I think this is an above-average matchup for the sure-handed wideout. According to DVOA, opposing WR2 have great success against Washington, meaning this could also be a Rueben Randle (FD $5,600, DK $3,800) week. His workload has been suspect (four or five targets in three of his last four), but the touchdown upside is always there, and he’s a streaky player who has the talent to break out of a slump at any time. He had the better game against Washington last time out, and could be in line for a big game once again. Slot corners don’t have any noteworthy performances against this defense, so Dwayne Harris (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) isn’t a serious option this week. And with Larry Donnell dealing with a long-term injury, the tight end situation for the Giants is one to avoid.

The Takeaway: Odell Beckham Jr. is a top option in this game, while Eli Manning and Rueben Randle are solid tournament plays. The Giants scored 32 points in their last meeting with Washington, and could easily produce a repeat performance with multiple touchdowns through the air.

Washington Redskins

Quarterback: There have been a couple of spikes in the recent performance of Kirk Cousins (FD $6,700, DK $5,400), but in between his three and four-touchdown games, he reverted to his “one score per game” form against New England and Carolina. Other than breakout games against the terrible Saints and bad Bucs defenses, Cousins has thrown just one touchdown pass in every game, and has averaged an interception per start this season. The Giants don’t have a great pass defense (21st in DVOA, ninth in yards per attempt allowed), which leaves the door open for another “You like that?!?!” performance from the Michigan State product, but it’s not something I would bank on. He’s playing at home, which helps, but he’s facing a team that has seen its pass rush revitalized by the return of Jason Pierre-Paul. Cousins is terrible under pressure, and if his line can’t keep JPP out of the backfield, I have no doubt the Washington QB will have a poor game. There’s upside here for Cousins, but there are better cheap options at quarterback.

Running Game: The Washington running game hit a brick wall last week against Carolina, but flourished in Week 10 against the Saints. The Giants are somewhere in the middle in terms of run-stopping ability, and with unclear volume for the Washington backs, it’s tough to figure out a reason to put them in your daily fantasy lineups. Alfred Morris (FD $5,100, DK $3,800) has 6, 4, 15 and 2 carries in his last four games, while Matt Jones (FD $5,900, DK $3,900) has slightly more consistent volume and passing game involvement. And there’s always Chris Thompson (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) hanging around on third downs to snag a few passes himself. This running back situation isn’t quite as bad as the one on the other side of the ball in this game, but it’s not a great one for fantasy purposes. I’m going to pass entirely in a matchup with a middle-of-the-road run defense (17th in DVOA), but I can’t blame you for going with Jones or Thompson in PPR formats in a cheap tournament.

Pass Catchers: DeSean Jackson (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) has returned and worked his way back into form, and reminded everyone what he’s capable of with a touchdown against a tough Carolina defense last weekend. He was absent from the first meeting between these two teams, but was held in check in two games last season against the Giants (four catches for 24 yards across both meetings). New York has two talented corners on the outside, and while there’s big game upside (Evans, Jones, Colston and Boldin all had over 100 yards in matchups with the Giants), there’s also the potential for a total letdown, especially if Cousins is under pressure all game. Both Jackson and Pierre Garcon (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) are too risky for me, even in tournaments. Jordan Reed (FD $5,800, DK $5,100) is dealing with a slight injury, and that’s about the only reason you should consider not rostering him this weekend. The Giants have allowed the second-most points to tight ends this season, and rank 22nd in DVOA against the position this year. There are a couple of good tight end options on this weekend’s slate, and Reed might be the best of them all. He’s worthy of a roster spot in any format.

The Takeaway: Jordan Reed is a top option at tight end, but the rest of the Washington offense can be ignored outside of speculative tournament lineups. Jay Gruden’s team are home underdogs in a pivotal divisional matchup, and I struggle to see a way they prevail in this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers						Indianapolis Colts
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Lucas Oil Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	46.5	21.75				-3	46.5	24.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.6	12	25	2		Offense	22.4	18	17	20
Opp. Defense	24.8	19	27	21		Opp. Defense	25.4	26	13	14
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	25	21	23	24		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21	11	14	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Evans	93	44	2	727		Hilton	91	45	3	724
Jackson	46	25	3	375		Johnson	50	25	3	301
Humphries	23	16	0	158		Moncrief	74	44	5	470
Seferian-Jenkins	10	7	2	139		Fleener	55	36	2	325

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Doubtful), Andrew Luck (IND, Out), Frank Gore (IND, Probable)

TB Matchup Rating: 5.5
IND Matchup Rating: 5.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback: Jameis Winston (FD $7,300, DK $5,500) had a huge game a week ago, opening up discussions about how high his fantasy ceiling could be after spending the first half of the season in the mid teens in fantasy points per game. The Buccaneers want to keep the ball on the ground, as they showed against the Eagles, and Winston’s volume will be limited whenever they get the chance. He threw only 29 passes in his five-touchdown outing, his fifth start with fewer than 30 pass attempts. His price is still cheap, and he gets a matchup with a mediocre pass defense (21st in fantasy points allowed, 17th in DVOA this season), but there’s reason to believe his huge fantasy point total against Philly was a bit of an outlier. He has proven he can consistently scrape together value for cash games, but I don’t want to chase points in tournaments.

Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) was a couple more broken tackles and touchdowns away from having the best fantasy football performance for a running back since… Doug Martin a few years ago. The explosive Tampa Bay back is fully “back” this year, running hard and breaking tons of tackles behind an improving, but not great, offensive line. Martin is splitting time at running back, but he’s the leader in carries by a wide margin, and the Bucs are committed to keeping the ball on the ground as often as possible. Martin is going to be incredibly popular this week, and both numberFire and Football Outsiders rank the Colts as the 11th-best run defense. They’ve allowed quite a few fantasy points to backs this year (ninth-most to RBs), boosted by allowing over a touchdown per game, but there’s reason to be cautious in regards to Martin. He’s a secondary cash game option, but a fade in tournaments, as he’ll be on at least a quarter of the rosters in big GPPs, but doesn’t have a 25% chance of having a huge game again this week.

Pass Catchers: With Vincent Jackson (FD $6,400, DK $4,700) back, the value for Mike Evans (FD $8,100, DK $7,400) takes a bit of a hit. The 10+ targets per game won’t be there anymore for Evans, as the Bucs don’t throw that often, anyway, and when they do, they’ll spread the ball around between their top two wideouts. DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall have succeeded in their matchups with the Colts this season, and on the whole, Indy has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing wideouts. Vontae Davis is no longer a player to fear, and, therefore, there’s no need to fade top wideouts against Indy. If Jackson were still out, Evans would be a cash game play, but as it stands, both Jackson and Evans are viable in tournaments only.

The Takeaway: Jameis Winston is unlikely to reproduce his fantasy heroics from a week ago, and Doug Martin will struggle to recreate his strong Week 11 performance, as well. The Bucs should be able to move the ball against the Colts, but their balanced offense makes it tough to single out any particular player as a good daily fantasy play. Winston and Martin are cash-game viable, while Evans and Jackson are tournament fliers.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: The Bucs have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in six of their last seven, and 21 passing touchdowns on the year. Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,400, DK $5,400) has two passing touchdowns in his last two games, and will dink and dunk the ball around against a weak Tampa Bay pass defense. The Bucs rank 20th against the pass in DVOA, and 23rd in numberFire’s rankings, meaning this is a favorable matchup, but there’s just not a lot of upside from a veteran backup quarterback like Hasselbeck. He may get 200 yards and a couple of touchdowns, but there’s virtually no upside here. You can do better if you’re going cheap at QB this weekend.

Running Game: The Bucs have a strong run defense, allowing only 3.7 yards per attempt on the year and ranking 23rd in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. The backfield situation for the Colts is unclear, as Frank Gore (FD $6,400, DK $4,600) is dealing with an injury, and Ahmad Bradshaw (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) is waiting in the wings to cover for his fellow veteran back. Gore looks likely to play, but could be held back a bit to make sure he’s healthy for the stretch run. A tough matchup and uncertain workloads for the backs in Indy leaves me without much desire to roster these players.

Pass Catchers: Donte Moncrief (FD $5,900, DK $4,400) out-targeted T.Y. Hilton (FD $6,900, DK $5,700) last time out, but check the game logs, and you’ll see a roller coaster of target totals for the top wideouts. The Bucs don’t have a noteworthy weakness in their secondary, as their general level of talent at defensive back is low, rather than one corner or safety being a true liability. That makes it very tough to target either Moncrief or Hilton in cash games, but both are very much in play for tournaments against a team that has allowed five 100-yard receivers on the season. Coby Fleener (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) is in play, as well, as the Bucs struggle to defend the middle of the field, and Matt Hasselbeck generally prefers Fleener (20 targets from Hasselbeck) over any of the other tight ends (four combined targets).

The Takeaway: The Colts aren’t going to throw the ball 50+ times and score a ton of fantasy points like they did for most of last year with a healthy Andrew Luck at the helm, but there’s potential for one of the three top pass catchers on this team to have a nice game. Moncrief would be the preferred option thanks to his affordable price, while Hilton and Fleener (especially on DraftKings) are worthy of a spot on a roster or two as well.

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