NFL Grind Down Week 13 - Page Two

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-12-04 18:20:59

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Carolina Panthers						New Orleans Saints
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-7	49	28				7	49	21
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30.2	3	29	4		Offense	23.7	13	3	21
Opp. Defense	30.8	32	30	30		Opp. Defense	18.6	3	6	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	32	28	20	32		Carolina Panthers	5	15	8	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	28	17	3	262		Cooks	88	55	6	744
Ginn	67	30	4	500		Snead	72	46	3	682
Funchess	39	18	2	285		Colston	52	36	1	431
Olsen	92	53	6	788		Watson	67	50	3	604

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Brown, Ted Ginn (CAR, Probable), Willie Snead (NO, Questionable)

CAR Matchup Rating: 9.0
NO Matchup Rating: 4.5

Carolina Panthers

Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $9,000, DK $7,400) is a prime example of how rushing yards and rushing touchdowns boost the floor of a quarterback in fantasy football. Last week, Newton threw for only 183 yards and no touchdowns, but his 45 rushing yards and rushing touchdown helped him earn nearly 18 FanDuel points. This was still a fairly disappointing result for the expensive and previously rewarding fantasy option (Newton had 30+ FanDuel points in two of his previous three starts), but not the end of the world on a slightly odd Thanksgiving slate. On this weekend’s massive main NFL slate, however, Newton doesn’t have that sort of margin for error. Thankfully, he also has a premier matchup against the worst defense in the NFL.

The Saints rank last in numberFire’s overall defensive ratings, numberFire’s pass defense ratings, Football Outsiders’ pass defense rankings, FO’s weighted defense rankings, and in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and tight ends. This is truly a terrible pass defense, and Newton proved that in his first start against them, picking up over 10 yards per attempt and throwing two touchdown passes. (He also added a rushing score, bringing his total to just under 30 points.) Newton is a top option in any format at QB this weekend, as he should be able to throw until the Panthers have a comfortable lead, and then help them run out the clock against an overmatched New Orleans team. And should this game somehow be more competitive than the odds suggest, added throws in higher leverage situations against this defense will only lead to more points for Newton.

Running Game: The Panthers have a rare asset at running back, as Jonathan Stewart (FD $7,200, DK $5,300) is one of only a few backs who can truly be referred to as a workhorse running back. Stewart has 20+ carries in seven straight games, and while those touches haven’t translated to touchdowns (partially due to Newton’s role as a goal-line runner), it’s still volume we don’t see from many (if any) other backs in the league. The Saints are almost as bad against the run (29th in DVOA, third in fantasy points allowed) as they are against the pass, allowing a league-high 4.9 yards per attempt to opposing runners this season. If you’re not rostering Newton, Stewart is a great option, and the Panthers may score often enough for both Newton and Stewart to play well and justify use in a “stack” in a GPP.

Pass Catchers: No team has allowed more points to tight ends than the Saints, and no team ranks worse in DVOA against the position. Greg Olsen (FD $6,600, DK $6,400) is the best healthy tight end on this weekend’s slate, and has the best matchup. His price isn’t ideal, and the merits of paying up for a tight end are debatable, but if you can make a lineup work with Olsen at TE, it’s a wise move in any type of contest. Olsen torched the Saints in the last meeting between these teams, and we can expect more of the same this week. Devin Funchess (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) has played well over the past month on limited volume, and would be appealing if the Panthers’ wideouts weren’t seemingly back to full strength this week. The lack of clear roles among receivers means none of them are very attractive for DFS.

The Takeaway: The Panthers are in a great spot against a terrible New Orleans defense. The fact that Carolina is on the road should only help encourage a bit more offense as the Saints may hang around long enough to keep it competitive until the end. Newton, Stewart and Olsen are elite options in any format.

New Orleans Saints

Quarterback: It’s no secret that Drew Brees (FD $7,700, DK $6,900) plays better at home. This season, his two best fantasy outings have come at home, while he’s posted some really disappointing numbers on the road. But is “playing at home” enough to justify paying for Brees against one of the league’s best pass defenses? Josh Norman and company have helped Carolina to a second-place ranking in DVOA against the pass and in numberFire’s pass defense rankings, and a ranking of 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Aaron Rodgers threw for four touchdowns against the Panthers, but all other quarterbacks have combined for just ten total touchdowns in ten games. Brees is a “sneaky” “tournament” play, because his ownership will be down, but so will his expectations. I’ll not be rostering the New Orleans signal caller at all this week.

Running Game: The Panthers are very good against the run, as well, coming in at number three in the DVOA rankings. Doug Martin ran for 106 yards and a touchdown against Carolina in Week 4, and Ryan Mathews followed that up with 97 yards and a touchdown in Week 7. Otherwise, no back has rushed for more than 70 yards in a game against the Panthers, and over the past four weeks, the highest rushing total for a single back was 39. There have been a few successful runners in the passing game this year against Carolina, which provides a small bit of hope for Mark Ingram (FD $7,200, DK $6,400) as a PPR play, but there are such better running back options available elsewhere.

Pass Catchers: Brandin Cooks (FD $7,100, DK $6,300) is the premier pass catching threat for the Saints, and as such, he’ll be covered by Josh Norman any time he lines up on the outside. Norman doesn’t venture into the slot, so when Cooks is running routes from an inside position, he’ll stand a much better chance of getting open and doing some damage. Marques Colston (FD $5,100, DK $3,200) is the player set to see the most snaps against the weak link of the Carolina defensive backfield (slot corner Bene Benwikere), but he has failed to produce outside of his huge game against the Giants. The Panthers are ranked in the top ten of DVOA against all positions in the passing game, and there’s just not anything to like about this matchup.

The Takeaway: There will be some daily fantasy football players who roll with a Saint or two in their lineups since they’re playing at home, but as we’ve seen this season, that doesn’t translate into automatic production. The Panthers have an elite defense, and the Saints are big underdogs, even at home. I’m fading them this weekend.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

Seattle Seahawks						Minnesota Vikings
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Mall of America Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	41.5	20.75				0	41.5	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	8	21	2		Offense	21.0	24	31	1
Opp. Defense	17.6	2	4	20		Opp. Defense	20.2	8	11	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Minnesota Vikings	6	5	11	18		Seattle Seahawks	9	3	6	28
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Baldwin	64	50	6	684		Wallace	52	28	1	324
Kearse	43	29	3	429		Diggs	60	40	2	623
Lockett	37	28	0	352		Wright	33	19	0	286
Willson	18	12	1	152		Rudolph	57	36	4	341

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jimmy Graham (SEA, Out)

SEA Matchup Rating: 3.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 3.5

Seattle Seahawks

Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $7,800, DK $5,600) has eight touchdowns in his last two games after starting the season with eight one-touchdown performances in nine outings. This recent boost in production will draw plenty of attention, but a matchup against the Vikings may then drive that attention away again. In Thursday contests on FanDuel, Wilson was owned on under 2% of tournament lineups, which is one of the lowest totals you’ll see for a player who threw five touchdowns in his last start. The Vikings have been tough on QBs from a fantasy perspective, and this is a matchup of two very slow teams, but the upside for Wilson is too good to ignore, especially at this low of an ownership level. The Vikings have yet to allow a quarterback to score more than two touchdowns in a game, and are slightly above average in nearly every pass defense category. This isn’t an optimal matchup, but if only 2% of players will own Wilson this weekend, he should be on more than 2% of your lineups, just so you have leverage in case he has reclaimed his old form and is on a mission to get the Seahawks back into the discussion as a top team in the NFL.

Running Game: When Thomas Rawls (FD $7,000, DK $5,400) gets the start for the Seahawks, he takes over the Marshawn Lynch role for the offense and carries the running game on his shoulders. He has 51 carries in his last two outings, and should see another 20+ in a matchup with a confusing Minnesota run defense. The Vikings rank 23rd in DVOA against the run, and 15th in numberFire’s run rankings. However, they rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position. They’ve done a good job of keeping backs out of the end zone, but have still allowed 4.3 yards per rushing attempt this year, which is among the ten most favorable numbers from an opponent’s perspective. Over the past two weeks, both Eddie Lacy and Tevin Coleman have rushed for over 100 yards against the Vikings, and if Rawls can continue that trend and punch in a touchdown, he’ll make daily fantasy players very happy. Rawls is a viable tournament option, and is in consideration for cash games thanks to his volume and red zone opportunities.

Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $6,200, DK $3,800) went crazy in his last game against the Steelers, scoring three times on six catches and picking up well over 100 yards. He won’t have that great of a matchup this week, however, as the slot receiver in opposing offenses line up against Captain Munnerlyn, whom PFF deems to be one of the top players at his position in the NFL. If I’m stacking a SEA WR to go with Wilson, I would prefer Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,600, DK $3,400) or Tyler Lockett (FD $5,300, DK $3,000), with a preference for Kearse, who should see more of the poor coverage of Xavier Rhodes. The Vikings have allowed 65 or more receiving yards to tight ends three times over the past couple of months, and have benefitted from a fairly easy tight end schedule so far this season. They rank 25th in DVOA against the position, and could be picked apart by Luke Willson (FD $4,800, DK $2,500), who will step into a bigger role with Jimmy Graham out. Not every TE snap and target once held by Graham will go to Willson, but he should see a small boost in volume, and for such a cheap salary in a favorable matchup, he’s worthy of a flier in a tournament.

The Takeaway: Rawls is a solid play at running back, while Wilson, Willson and Kearse are viable GPP options.

Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) doesn’t throw the ball often, doesn’t pick up big yardage totals, and doesn’t score touchdowns. The line for this game suggests that the Vikings will score 20 or more points, but I have a hard time imagining Bridgewater will be heavily involved in any of that scoring. He’s not a fantasy football option until he proves otherwise, and a game against the eighth-ranked DVOA defense of the Seahawks doesn’t seem like the right spot for that sort of breakout.

Running Game: It’s certainly not impossible to run the ball against Seattle, as the Panthers were able to punch in two scores with their veteran running back Jonathan Stewart, so there’s hope for Adrian Peterson (FD $9,100, DK $6,600) and company this weekend. Peterson is the unquestioned top runner in the NFL, and has 100 or more yards in four of his last five starts. He also has five touchdowns over that span, including 125 yards and a score against the highly-ranked St. Louis run defense. Peterson is never out of the picture on a daily fantasy NFL slate, and if the Vikings want to have any success against the Seahawks, they have to figure out a way to get Peterson running in space to pick up first downs, or long scores. His price on FanDuel is obviously tough to work with, but that only makes him more contrarian and appealing for GPPs, as his ownership will be lower this week than in any other for the rest of the season, assuming continued health.

Pass Catchers: The Vikings have one good receiving option, Stefon Diggs (FD $6,200, DK $4,700), and he’ll likely be followed by Richard Sherman. Mike Wallace (FD $4,900, DK $3,300) might as well be demoted to the practice squad, while Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,100, DK $3,700) has been impossible to figure out all season. If I was forced to play a Minnesota pass catcher, it would be Rudolph, as the matchup for tight ends against Seattle is surprisingly good. But there’s not going to be a lot of production to go around in this passing game, and it’s best to sort through other games to find pass catchers on this weekend slate of games.

The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is always in play, and Kyle Rudolph has a good personal matchup despite a tough task for his teammates. Otherwise, steer clear of the Vikings, who may find a way to win this one, but are unlikely to do so in fantasy-friendly fashion.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

Houston Texans						Buffalo Bills
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Ralph Wilson Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3	41.5	19.25				-3	41.5	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.1	23	13	19		Offense	24.2	9	27	5
Opp. Defense	23.4	15	18	14		Opp. Defense	21.3	13	3	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Buffalo Bills	16	18	24	8		Houston Texans	12	20	5	7
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Hopkins	143	81	9	1081		Watkins	49	31	5	526
Washington	65	33	3	499		Woods	62	36	2	383
Shorts	61	34	3	430		Hogan	41	29	2	364
Fiedorowicz	16	13	1	139		Clay	69	46	2	453

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: DeAndre Hopkins, Alfred Blue, Brian Hoyer (HOU, Probable), Karlos Williams (BUF, Out)

HOU Matchup Rating: 4.0
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0

Houston Texans

Quarterback: The Texans gave up 44 points to the Dolphins on October 25th and fell to 2-5, but have ripped off four straight wins since, allowing just 35 points in those four contests. What does this have to do with their quarterback? It got rid of one of his most valuable assets: garbage time. Brian Hoyer (FD $7,000, DK $5,000) has thrown 264 passes this year, and 128 of those have come with the Texans down ten or more points. On those 128 double-digit-deficit throws, Hoyer picked up eight touchdowns and only one interception. That means on his other 136 throws with a smaller losing margin, or with a tie or the lead, Hoyer has thrown seven touchdowns and four interceptions. His splits by final margin of victory/defeat are quite glaring, as well. In games decided by seven points or fewer, Hoyer has three touchdowns and three interceptions this year (three games), whereas in five games decided by eight or more points, Hoyer has 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. Hoyer has done most of his damage when his team is trailing by a decent margin this season, which is something we probably won’t see against the Bills. In addition, Buffalo is middle of the road against the pass by virtually every measure, with the only outlier favoring the homestanding Bills, as numberFire ranks them sixth against opposing passing games. Hoyer is clearly capable of throwing touchdowns and getting yards, and we can still play him in games his team might actually win, but as we saw last week, the Texans aren’t going to give him the volume and opportunities we saw earlier this year when the team was getting blown out when the team is actually in contention. As such, Hoyer is just a tournament option for me.

Running Game: The Bills rank 30th in DVOA against the run, and 27th in numberFire’s rankings at defending opposing ground games. yet they’ve allowed an average of just over 21 FanDuel points per games to running backs, which is right around league average. Why such a disparity? First, Buffalo has faced a relatively small number of passes to running backs, limiting points for receptions, yards and touchdowns through the air. Similarly, the Bills have been run against only 218 times by running backs, which is fifth-fewest in the NFL. Runs against the Bills result in a slightly-better-than-average 4.2 yards per carry, and have led to nice performances from T.J. Yeldon (20/115/1) and Spencer Ware (19/114/1), so there’s definitely hope for Alfred Blue (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) to have a solid game in this matchup. Blue has very strong volume over the past four games, with 19, 13, 24 and 17 touches in those outings. He has touchdowns in back-to-back games, and has racked up a healthy team lead in red zone carries despite only starting a handful of games. He gets the opportunities, and he gets them in the right parts of the field, so against Buffalo, that’s a recipe for success. He’s a strong tournament play many will ignore, as he’s not a particularly great player with limited upside. But if he punches in a couple of touchdowns, he’ll blow by his value thresholds and give a solid return at a very low ownership percentage. And there’s a decent chance he punches in a couple of touchdowns this week.

Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins (FD $8,900, DK $8,800) let down a lot of fantasy players last weekend, and his ownership in Thursday contests represents a pretty notable drop in trust from the daily fantasy public. This week’s game against a talented Bills’ secondary isn’t a great matchup, and routes run against Stephon Gilmore or Ronald Darby don’t really spark any excitement when setting lineups. But since Week 2, Hopkins has either 150+ yards receiving or 50+ and a touchdown in all but two games, and has huge upside, even in tougher matchups. This game is unlikely to be an easy victory for the Texans, which was the main reason for Hopkins’ low volume last week against the Saints. Continue to use Nuk in tournaments, but there are better plays for cash games this weekend. Buffalo slot corner Nickell Roby is the weakest of the cover men the Texans will face, which means Cecil Shorts (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) holds some appeal this week. Eric Decker, Danny Amendola and Jarvis Landry all had respectable PPR performances against the Bills this season out of the slot, and Shorts is involved in the Houston offense when healthy (seeing rushing attempts and even throwing passes on top of a handful of targets per game). He’s a GPP play in PPR formats. The Bills have been strong against tight ends this year, even those named Gronkowski (on one occasion), so it’s unlikely that one named Ryan Griffin (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) will have a big game.

The Takeaway: It’s tough to love Hoyer this week, as the Texans won’t fall way behind in this game, which is where he’s done most of his damage this season. However, the passing game could still hold some potential if he can connect with Hopkins or Shorts. However, I think the Bills defense is due for a bit of regression, and Alfred Blue is my top Texans play this weekend.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: If you’re wondering how the Texans went from one of the weakest opponents in the league to one of the top defenses seemingly out of nowhere, the most obvious change has been their ability to generate turnovers on defense. In the first five games, Houston had only two takeaways, while they’ve generated 12 in the last six outings. They were 1-4 in those first five contests, and are 5-1 since. Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,400, DK $5,200) hasn’t been particularly prone to turnovers this season, throwing only four picks and losing just one fumble in nine appearances. But he will be throwing into the teeth of a defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the pass, and fourth in numberFire’s rankings, but will run against a defense that allowed 76 yards and a touchdown to Cam Newton, 37 yards to Blake Bortles, and 30 yards to Andy Dalton. Taylor has nice upside as a runner in this matchup, but his passing numbers should suffer, making him a risky tournament option. Even though rushing numbers add up quickly, we’ll still need 200+ yards and a score or two through the air for Taylor to hit value.

Running Game: There are a few reasons to like LeSean McCoy (FD $7,800, DK $5,700) this week, but also a couple of things to worry about. Shady has 16 or more carries in every game since Week 6, and has a big role in the passing game, as well. He has scored four touchdowns in his last six starts, and has gone over 100 total yards five times over that span. The Texans haven’t faced a running back who has carried the ball more than nine times over the past three games, but did allow three different backs to catch five or more passes for 40 or more yards in those three contests. Prior to that, Houston had allowed a huge game to Lamar Miller, and solid outings to Frank Gore and the Falcons running backs in a Week 4 blowout. The defense for the Texans is playing much better, allowing under four yards per carry and giving up only one rushing score since the blowout against Miami, but McCoy is the sort of player who could flip that script with his ability to break off big plays, even in tough matchups. I don’t think you can trust McCoy in a cash game given the recent play of the Houston defense, but he’s certainly viable in tournaments thanks to his high upside and consistent volume.

Pass Catchers: I have never been able to figure out Sammy Watkins (FD $7,000, DK $5,600). The Clemson product was not a player I liked coming out of college, but he then merited the use of two first round picks by the Bills. He has since been up and down in his NFL career, with flashes of brilliance and profound disappointments scattered through his game logs. I was high on him against the Patriots, and off him against the Chiefs, which was the exact opposite of how his performances actually went. Against Houston, Watkins will face a defense that has a decent number one corner in Johnathan Joseph, but according to PFF, Watkins and Joseph normally play on opposite sides of the field from one another. This would match Watkins up with the more average starting corner on the other side of the formation, Kevin Johnson, which should present a more appealing matchup on most routes run. Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton and Allen Robinson all had decent performances against the Texans as WR1s, and Watkins has the upside to do the same. He’ll likely want to get back to work after a fantastic first half and invisible second half last weekend, and will somehow come with a relatively low ownership figure if Thursday contests are any indication. Robert Woods (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) has only 69 yards on seven catches over his last 18 targets, and doesn’t seem to be producing well enough to justify a spot in a DFS lineup. And the Texans have been tough against tight ends all season, so the inconsistent Charles Clay (FD $5,100, DK $3,500) holds even less appeal.

The Takeaway: Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins all have different levels of potential in this contests, but all are viable in the right format, on the right site. The Bills are unlikely to score a ton of points in this game, but if they score any, it’s likely to filter through these offensive stars.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens						Miami Dolphins
Sunday – 1 p.m.						Sun Life Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	43	19.5				-4	43	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.5	15	11	18		Offense	20.5	27	12	27
Opp. Defense	26.1	27	21	32		Opp. Defense	25.1	24	25	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	26	30	27	16		Baltimore Ravens	28	7	29	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Aiken	76	43	4	536		Landry	112	77	5	923
Givens	28	14	1	243		Matthews	61	43	4	666
Butler	10	8	0	93		Stills	46	20	2	343
Gillmore	46	32	4	405		Cameron	55	25	2	302

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Stills (MIA, Questionable), Rishard Matthews (MIA, Out)

BAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5

Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback: The Dolphins have one of the NFL’s worst defenses, ranking 28th in weighted DVOA (which favors recent results over those from earlier this season, meaning not even a coaching change has prompted an improvement on defense from the Fins). They’re just as bad against the pass as the run according to Football Outsiders, ranking 27th and 25th, respectively. Miami allowed four touchdown passes to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, their fourth game giving up three or more touchdown passes this year. That seems like a ceiling Matt Schaub (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) is ill-equipped to reach, but it does prove how kind this matchup can be for opposing passing games. Schaub doesn’t lose any more points for an interception than any other quarterback, so even when considering his two picks thrown last time out, he had a somewhat decent fantasy performance. If he can keep the turnovers down, or can pick up more yards or touchdowns, he’ll be a solid GPP play, but those are risky things to bank on from the veteran quarterback with no strong options in his receiving corps.

Running Game: Javorius Allen (FD $6,800, DK $5,400) didn’t quite see the volume we all expected last week, as Terrance West (FD $4,800, DK $3,800) cut into his carries in a big way. However, the Ravens should spend the rest of this season seeing what Allen has to offer, and since he’s capable as a runner and a receiver, he can stay on the field no matter the score or situation. He may not be in line for 20+ touches per game as we expected, but at his still reduced price, 100 total yards and a score would be a great game. The Dolphins have allowed backs to reach 100 yards from scrimmage ten times this season, and have allowed 13 touchdowns to opposing runners, so the odds are in Allen’s favor to hit both thresholds this weekend.

Pass Catchers: According to DVOA, the Dolphins are weakest against WR1 (last in the NFL) and WR2 (29th), which is easy to see when scanning their game logs against (with big games from Watkins, Robinson, Marshall (twice), Washington and Edelman). Unfortunately, the Ravens lack in a “WR2,” and really have a WR1 in role alone, as Kamar Aiken (FD $6,100, DK $4,800) is hardly a top receiving talent. He’s still seeing healthy volume, which was good enough for Nate Washington in this matchup, so it could be good enough for Aiken, as well. Schaub trusted his young wideout in his first start, and the UCF product didn’t really give his QB a reason to stop throwing him the ball. Don’t worry about Brent Grimes, who is having a down year at the tail end of his career, and roll out Aiken in any format this week as a bargain play in a good matchup. The Dolphins have allowed a handful of big games to tight ends, including two 100-yard outings, but touchdowns have been hard to come by. That means Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,600, DK $3,600) is in play, but not quite as safe, especially when considering Miami’s better-than-average DVOA when it comes to defending tight ends. Aiken, Gillmore and Allen should consume around two-thirds of the targets in this offense, and I’m not interested in any other pass catchers this week, mainly due to a ton of uncertainty about volume and roles for the other wideouts. Chris Givens (FD $4,500, DK $3,400) has big play potential, but is virtually impossible to play if he’s not on the same page as Schaub (which may be proven by the three targets against Cleveland).

The Takeaway: Buck Allen and Kamar Aiken are the preferred plays for Baltimore, while Gillmore, Schaub and Givens are less appealing but still somewhat viable.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: It is never easy to click the name of Ryan Tannehill (FD $7,300, DK $5,300) when setting a DFS lineup, but so far this season, it’s been a decent play more often than not. Tannehill has two or more touchdown throws in all but three starts this season, and while his volume is inconsistent (he’s thrown anywhere from 19 to 58 passes in a game), he still seems to scrape together a decent point total, even if he has a letdown game. In this week’s game against the Ravens, Tannehill and company will likely need to keep the ball in the air, as the Ravens have a fairly tough run defense, and a very bad pass defense. Baltimore ranks fourth in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, but 26th to running backs. DVOA suggests a similar gap in quality between the Ravens’ run and pass defenses. Other than Case Keenum and Michael Vick, the Ravens have allowed multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 1, meaning eight of the 11 teams they’ve faced have scored multiple passing TDs. They’ve also allowed 300+ yards five times, which comes with an attractive bonus on DraftKings.

Running Game: Things aren’t quite as great for running backs against the Ravens, as Baltimore has the fifth-lowest yards per attempt allowed to opposing runners this year. They have generally kept backs as receivers in check, as well, giving up only 460 yards on 57 completions and one touchdown to RBs on pass plays. All of these numbers are average or worse from an offensive perspective. Lamar Miller (FD $6,700, DK $5,800) is a talented player who doesn’t touch the ball nearly enough, but I’m not sure this is the week when we should bank on big volume and production from the Miami back. Yes, the Dolphins just fired another coach, possibly because that coach wasn’t using Miller well (or just for coaching an offense that has been so frustrating this season), but that doesn’t modify the matchup, nor does it guarantee increased volume for anyone. Miller is a speculative GPP play, but we’ll need to see consistent volume before we can start playing him in DFS with that volume in mind.

Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,400, DK $6,700) is coming off of the best game of his career against the Revis-less Jets, and now faces a tougher matchup in what should be a more competitive game against the Ravens. Landry benefitted from his team’s incredible total of pass attempts, hauling in a season-high 13 passes on a season-high 16 targets, numbers he’s unlikely to repeat, but could approach, even if the Dolphins dial back the passing plays. Landry will face a legitimate slot corner in Ladarius Webb this weekend, which isn’t the end of the world, but is enough cause for concern to maybe drop upside expectations. Landry’s FanDuel ownership on Thursday was surprisingly low, and he could be a sneaky play there in a GPP, but I’m sure his popularity in DraftKings’ PPR format games will be higher. He’s a potential tournament fade on DK (tougher matchup, higher expectations, expected high ownership), but still viable in cash, and he’s worthy of a roster spot in any format on FD. DeVante Parker (FD $5,200, DK $3,300) and Kenny Stills (FD $4,900, DK $3,200) were the other wideouts to see decent volume last time out, and while both offer big play potential, one is a veteran with very spotty volume (Stills) while the other is a young talent finally finding a role in the offense (Parker). Both players will spend a decent amount of snaps against the poor perimeter corners of the Ravens, and both are sneaky GPP options. If Stills sits out with a tweaked ankle, Parker gets a big boost as the team’s primary outside threat.

The Takeaway: The Dolphins will likely have to keep the ball in the air against the Ravens, who have allowed a ton of fantasy points to quarterbacks and wideouts this year. Tannehill, Landry, Parker and Stills all merit varying degrees of interest in this weekend’s contests.

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