NFL Grind Down: Week 13
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
New York Jets at New York Giants
| New York Jets | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2 | 45 | 23.5 | 2 | 45 | 21.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.7 | 7 | 20 | 13 | Offense | 26.1 | 5 | 10 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.8 | 22 | 32 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 9 | 14 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 30 | 23 | 19 | 31 | New York Jets | 11 | 6 | 23 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 117 | 71 | 9 | 931 | Beckham | 122 | 72 | 9 | 1,008 | |
| Decker | 85 | 51 | 8 | 700 | Randle | 61 | 40 | 4 | 511 | |
| Kerley | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | Harris | 45 | 27 | 4 | 344 | |
| Cumberland | 13 | 5 | 0 | 77 | Donnell | 41 | 29 | 2 | 223 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eric Decker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brandon Marshall (NYJ, Probable), Larry Donnell (NYG, Out)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 7.0
NYG Matchup Rating: 4.5
New York Jets
Quarterback: This week we have the extremely rare double home game, as the Giants “host” the Jets in the team’s shared stadium. The setting will be comfortable and familiar for both teams, and should lead to plenty of fantasy point opportunities as well. For the Jets, Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $7,500, DK $5,200) and company will square off against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most points to opposing QBs this season, and ranks 25th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and 27th in “weighted DVOA,” which considers overall defense with a bias toward more recent results. This is a poor defense that isn’t holding up as the season goes along, and the Jets should be able to take advantage. Fitzpatrick threw for four touchdowns last week, and has multiple scores in his last six full appearances, and in all but one game this season which featured more than five pass attempts. Add in the two or three points you get from his rushing efforts, with the potential bonus of a rushing touchdown, and he’s a safe option at QB with very high upside against a defense that allowed seven passing touchdowns in a game already this season.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $7,100, DK $5,900) is a stereotypical NFL running back in 2015, as he’s been productive at times, frustrating at others, and occasionally just invisible and excluded from the offense. He had back-to-back monster games against Miami and Washington earlier this year, and has a pair of two-touchdown outings, but otherwise has a scattered game log with as many disappointments as serviceable stat lines. This week he’ll face a Giants defense that has allowed the 11th-most points to opposing backs, yet is not a defense that appears to be particularly bad at stopping the run. Doug Martin was bottled up against the Giants, while Karlos Williams and LeGarrette Blount failed to get much going against the run stoppers from Tom Coughlin’s team. But Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray and Carlos Hyde all had big games against the G-Men. Ivory is an inconsistent back facing an inconsistent run defense, and is, therefore, viable in tournaments. He has great upside, but isn’t trustworthy enough for cash lineups, especially with better values available elsewhere at the position.
Pass Catchers: According to Pro Football Focus, the Giants’ top two corners have spent an average of 5% of their snaps in the slot this season, and have not notably shadowed receivers moving inside to run their routes. This means Eric Decker (FD $7,200, DK $6,300) will get the most favorable matchup of the New York pass catchers, as he’ll see slot snaps against Trevin Wade when he moves inside, which is a much more favorable situation than running routes against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie or Prince Amukamara. Marques Colston (who runs a similar amount of his routes from the slot) had a huge game against the Giants already this year, while Anquan Boldin, Danny Amendola, Leonard Hankerson and other slot receivers had good (or at least respectable) outings against the Giants in 2015. The Jets slot receiver has seven or more targets in his last seven games, and has caught a touchdown in all but two appearances this season. Decker sets up as one of the top options at the WR position this weekend. Brandon Marshall (FD $8,100, DK $7,100) will see tougher matchups playing on the outside against the more talented corners of the Giants, but has the size and skill necessary to overcome these sorts of matchups. He has double-digit targets in seven games already this year, and has never seen fewer than seven looks in the passing game. He has five touchdowns in his last four games, and is an elite tournament option, despite what should be a fairly high ownership percentage. The Jets offense runs through these two players, and they will remain the focal point in a favorable matchup against a defense that has allowed the 12th-most points to opposing wideouts this season. No other pass catcher for the Jets merits consideration, as the volume is so focused on those two wideouts.
The Takeaway: The Jets have a pair of talented wideouts who are both great options this weekend, with Eric Decker standing out as a consistent player in a great matchup who can be targeted in all formats. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chris Ivory and Brandon Marshall are better suited for tournaments, but could all provide a nice return on investment for DFS players.
New York Giants
Quarterback: The Jets have a talented defense with skilled players at every level, but enter this weekend with injury concerns that leave them more vulnerable than usual. Darrelle Revis is slowly recovering from a concussion and his Week 13 status is still up in the air, while his fill-in, Marcus Williams, has a knee injury and is unlikely to feature this week. Defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson is dealing with an injury, and Antonio Cromartie has been playing through injuries and appearing generally ineffective. There are still very good players lining up in white and green on defense, but not enough to completely exclude Eli Manning (FD $7,600, DK $6,500) from consideration. Manning has 12 touchdown passes in his last four games, and has multiple TD tosses in all but two games this season. He could always have a total letdown game, as 195 yards and no touchdowns is well within his range of possible outcomes, but his upside (even against good defenses) is always 300/3/0 or better. With the injuries to the NYJ defense, Manning makes for a preferred GPP QB option this weekend.
Running Game: No Giants back carried the ball more than six times last week, and none of the backs saw more than five targets out of the backfield. This is a situation to avoid, especially against an elite run defense.
Pass Catchers: With Darrelle Revis ruled out, Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,400, DK $8,900) will be the top option at receiver this weekend. No one for the Jets can keep up with Beckham when Revis is sidelined, and in recent weeks, the Giants have been more committed to getting their star wideout involved in the offense. After three straight single-digit target games in Weeks 6-8, Beckham has seen 17, 12 and 18 looks in the passing game over his last three starts. He has five touchdown receptions in his last four games, and will likely add to that total against a hurting secondary for the Jets. Rueben Randle (FD $5,800, DK $3,900) is always a secondary tournament play, but never appealing enough to target heavily. Dwayne Harris (FD $5,100, DK $3,200) is a better target than Randle, as he’ll face a defense that allowed big numbers to slot receiver Jarvis Landry just last week, and has given up decent outings to other slot receivers (Walters, Amendola, and Michael Crabtree, who is a part-time slot receiver). His volume isn’t consistent, but in a game where his quarterback may throw 50 times instead of handing off against an elite run-stopping defense, he could see six or seven looks and find the end zone. Tight ends not named Gronkowski have not had noteworthy success against this defense, so Will Tye (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) is an unnecessary risk this weekend.
The Takeaway: Beckham is a top play in all formats, while Manning and Harris are preferred tournament targets, and Randle is a secondary play at best.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
| Arizona Cardinals | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | Offense | 16.9 | 31 | 32 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.9 | 11 | 8 | 21 | Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 10 | 10 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis Rams | 4 | 22 | 3 | 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 8 | 12 | 9 | 13 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 112 | 83 | 7 | 992 | Britt | 50 | 24 | 1 | 404 | |
| Floyd | 48 | 28 | 5 | 446 | Austin | 61 | 37 | 7 | 647 | |
| Brown | 64 | 45 | 4 | 726 | Quick | 20 | 6 | 0 | 59 | |
| Fells | 18 | 13 | 3 | 185 | Cook | 53 | 30 | 0 | 379 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Johnson (ARI, Out), Andre Ellington (ARI, Doubtful), Michael Floyd (ARI, Questionable), Case Keenum (STL, Questionable), Stedman Bailey (STL, Out)
ARI Matchup Rating: 6.5
STL Matchup Rating: 2.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Two of the league’s top defenses take to the field in this NFC West rivalry game, but only one team features one of the league’s better offenses. The Cardinals are vastly superior to the Rams when possessing the ball, and have been virtually unstoppable this year on offense. No offense has more points, yards, first downs, or net passing yards per attempt this season than the Cards, who have scored 30 or more points in seven games this year. They did stumble against the Rams in the last meeting between these two teams, and will travel to the midwest for this contest, but Carson Palmer (FD $7,900, DK $6,700) and company still are worthy of a spot in your tournament lineups. The Rams have allowed seven passing touchdowns in their last three games, and seem to be slipping a bit after a strong start to the season defensively. Meanwhile, Palmer has three or more passing scores on six occasions this year, threw for 352 yards against this defense in their first meeting. If he’s able to more efficiently turn those yards into meaningful gains and touchdowns this time around, he’ll be a top-scoring quarterback with lower ownership than he deserves.
Running Game: If you read any daily fantasy articles this week, you’ll be presented with countless reasons to roster rookie running back David Johnson (FD $5,900, DK $3,400). With injuries to the veteran backs previously ahead of him on the depth chart, you don’t need to think very long about why to plug him into your lineups. But allow me to present the reasons why you may think twice before clicking on Johnson’s name. This season, Johnson has not carried the ball more than eight times in a single game, yet he already has three fumbles. He has scored quite a few touchdowns, but his ratio of touches to scores is incredibly unsustainable. And it’s not as if he’s the only show in town, as Stepfan Taylor (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) and Kerwynn Williams are both hanging around and have experience as runners in this offense. Williams was boosted from the practice squad and will likely handle a few touches after some impressive appearances last year, including 75 yards on 15 carries against the Rams. If you’re confident that Johnson will see a 100% boost in touches, continue to score at a somewhat decent pace, and keep the ball from hitting the turf, he’s a top value this weekend. I just think there are reasons to pause before assuming the Arizona back is a must-play in Week 13. Williams, Rawls, and Allen are among the other affordable runners who have much more clear paths to success on this slate.
Oh, and the Rams rank fifth in DVOA against the run, and have allowed only four touchdowns to running backs since Week 3. One of those was to Johnson, who holds more appeal on DK thanks to his role in the passing game, but I still think there are better ways to go (especially on FanDuel) at running back this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Only six teams have faced fewer pass attempts this season than the Rams, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to wideouts, and third in DVOA against the pass. And while I trust Carson Palmer to deliver, even in a tough matchup and against tough opponents, this matchup and likely low volume situation for the Arizona passing game makes it tough to pick out a receiver to like. Last time these teams met, Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,300, DK $7,400) and John Brown (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) both picked up seven receptions, but either found the end zone. Since then, no wideout has caught more than six passes in a game against the Rams, none have gained more than 77 yards through the air, and only four different wideouts have scored touchdowns since that Week 4 meeting between those two teams. Fitzgerald remains the most consistent wideout for the Cards, with double-digit targets in each of his last four, and would be the top play if you’re stacking Palmer with a wideout. Brown and Michael Floyd (FD $5,900, DK $3,800) are secondary options at best, as they are unlikely to see a big role in the offense, and have fairly tough matchups against the outside corners for the Rams, who PFF grade as Pro Bowl-caliber players.
The Takeaway: Johnson is going to be popular, and worthy of a spot in a few of your lineups just in case he keeps up his incredible scoring pace, but I prefer Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, even in what seems like a tough matchup. The Arizona defense is always a great play, especially against an offense that has really struggled to move the ball in recent weeks, and has nine turnovers in the past three games.
St. Louis Rams
Quarterback: Case Keenum (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) will start if he passes the concussion tests, while Nick Foles (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) will start if he doesn’t. I don’t see a reason why you’d want to roster either one. Foles had his best game of the season against the Cardinals in Week 4, but other than that game, STL QBs have scored only six touchdowns this year, and have not gone over 300 yards passing in a game. Avoid this situation entirely.
Running Game: Todd Gurley (FD $8,400, DK $7,300) is incredibly talented, and had his breakout game against this Arizona defense, but he can’t overcome his offense’s incredible lack of production on his own. Arizona is a top-10 defense against the run by nearly any measure, and Gurley has been held under 70 yards rushing in his last three games. He’s always in play in a GPP format, and is really the only Ram worthy of a spot in your lineups, but the range of outcomes is very, very wide.
Pass Catchers: Tavon Austin (FD $6,100, DK $4,300) had a great game against the Cardinals back in Week 4, and has continued to score touchdowns and get somewhat reliable touches in an otherwise struggling offense. He moves all over the formation, so trying to figure out who will “cover” him is a tough task, but you can bet that the Cardinals will try to get Tyrann Mathieu or Patrick Peterson will be lined up against him on passing downs as often as possible if the Cardinals have their way. The Rams will still get him the ball, and it’s impossible to rule him out entirely, but he’s not a great option outside of a speculative GPP dart throw. No other active STL WR has scored a touchdown since Week 2, so you can safely ignore all of the other options in this passing game.
The Takeaway: Todd Gurley is a mediocre tournament option with high upside, and Tavon Austin is a very risky play, but you can otherwise avoid the Rams in this one.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Raymond James Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 46 | 22.25 | -1.5 | 46 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 14 | 6 | 15 | Offense | 22.5 | 18 | 26 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 25 | 13 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 21.3 | 13 | 9 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 21 | 9 | 17 | 19 | Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 32 | 2 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 141 | 94 | 6 | 1,245 | Evans | 103 | 49 | 2 | 791 | |
| White | 47 | 27 | 1 | 314 | Jackson | 56 | 29 | 3 | 451 | |
| Hankerson | 46 | 26 | 3 | 327 | Humphries | 26 | 18 | 0 | 178 | |
| Tamme | 62 | 44 | 1 | 515 | Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 7 | 2 | 139 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Leonard Hankerson (ATL, Doubtful), Devonta Freeman (ATL, Probable), Vincent Jackson (TB, Questionable), Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TB, Doubtful)
ATL Matchup Rating: 5.5
TB Matchup Rating: 5.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $7,400, DK $6,700) threw for nearly 400 yards and two touchdowns in his last game against the Bucs, in what was arguably his best overall game of the season. The Falcons still lost the game, and he waited until late in the game to finally start throwing touchdowns. Ryan has been all over the map this year, and the Bucs, while slightly below average at defending the pass, are looking better than the team that allowed eight combined passing touchdowns to Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota during the first couple of months of the season. Some less-than-great passers have done well against the Bucs this season, but they’ve been generally limiting damage over the past few weeks. Ryan is a tough player to trust, but has upside in a favorable matchup against a defense that is hardly great against the pass.
If Gerald McCoy misses out, it would be a big boost for Ryan, who would then have all day to throw against a weak Tampa Bay pass rush. Consider Ryan a much better target if the defensive tackle for the Bucs is sidelined.
Running Game: It is looking more and more likely that Devonta Freeman (FD $9,000, DK $8,000) will play in this matchup, but is that a good thing? The Atlanta back had a five-game streak with ten touchdowns earlier this year, but has scored only one touchdown in his other five appearances. His volume is fairly safe, as he is the lead back for the Falcons when healthy, but he’s had some disappointing performances, and faces a tough test this week. Freeman rushed for 88 yards against the Bucs in the last matchup between these two teams, which is the second-highest rushing total Tampa Bay has allowed this year. Outside of a plodding 31-carry, 139-yard game from Alfred Blue, the Bucs have yet to allow a back to gain triple-digit yards on the ground, and haven’t given up a rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 3. The Bucs rank second in DVOA against the run, and fifth in numberFire’s run defense rankings. I plan to totally avoid Freeman this weekend, even if McCoy is out, as he’s not the only player stopping the run for the Tampa Bay defense.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,200, DK $9,000) lived up to his fantasy superstar status in the last meeting between these two teams, scoring a touchdown while hauling in an incredible 12 of 13 targets for 162 yards. There is no one in the Tampa Bay defensive backfield who can come close to defending Jones, and the defense is often soft and easy to pick apart, which means the Falcons can simply ask Julio to sit down in open space, receive passes, and then try to use his speed to break away once he grabs hold of the ball. Jones had a letdown game last weekend after three straight games with 135+ yards, and he should bounce back quickly in this favorable matchup. Roddy White (FD $5,400, DK $3,200) has 17 targets over the last two weeks, and with Leonard Hankerson seeming doubtful to play, White is going to continue to soak up targets despite lacking in explosiveness after years in the NFL and countless injuries. Hankerson’s absence also opens up room over the middle for Jacob Tamme (FD $5,200, DK $3,700), who was second on the team in targets the last time these sides met, and grabbed 10 passes for 103 yards and a score. Jones and Tamme are both viable in cash games and strong options for tournaments, while White is more of a GPP flier.
The Takeaway: The Falcons passing game isn’t a guaranteed success, but this is as good of a situation as any for fantasy production from Matt Ryan and company. Consider Jones and Tamme in all formats, and Ryan and White in tournaments only.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: The recent game log for Jameis Winston (FD $7,200, DK $5,300) is quite interesting, as the Tampa Bay quarterback has passing touchdown totals of 1, 0, 0, 5, and 1 in his last five starts. Those first three starts all came with rushing touchdowns which helped boost his floor on otherwise disappointing stat lines, but it’s been tough to expect much out of Winston except in the best of matchups. With the way quarterbacks are priced and producing lately, Winston’s 30-35 attempts at with a 55% completion percentage and under 7 yards per attempt with limited touchdown upside just doesn’t cut it. Even for cash games, you can get better value multipliers elsewhere. The Falcons have been tough on opposing QBs from a fantasy perspective this year, and held Winston to under 200 yards passing in Week 8. I’ll pass on the FSU product in all formats.
Running Game: Doug Martin (FD $7,600, DK $5,900) appears to be fully healthy and enjoying his role as the lead back for the Bucs yet again, a post he relinquished early in his second season and struggled to regain until now. Martin is breaking tackles and making players miss while running hard and picking up consistent yardage for an offense that does not want to throw the ball often. Martin has 18 or more carries in seven games this year, including in the last meeting between these teams. The problem with Martin is the lack of touchdowns and limited involvement in the passing game, which leave him as just a tournament option. Still, he’s a strong GPP play against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing runners this season, fresh off of a 158-yard, two-touchdown game from Adrian Peterson. The Falcons have been particularly bad defending backs in the passing game, as well, and since Charles Sims (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) sees 3-5 targets per game plus a handful of carries, he’s a decent punt in PPR formats.
Pass Catchers: The return of Vincent Jackson (FD $6,300, DK $4,700) has given Winston one more target to spread the ball to in the Tampa Bay offense, which really reduces the floor of a suddenly quite unreliable Mike Evans (FD $7,900, DK $7,300). Evans has been dropping passes left and right this year, and Jackson’s return gives Winston a chance to target another player when Evans isn’t open, or when he loses faith in his second-year wideout. And with Austin Seferian-Jenkins still sidelined, the two towering receivers will be the main attractions in the passing game, but don’t forget about Cameron Brate (FD $4,900, DK $2,500). The Harvard product was a skilled pass catcher in college and impressed me when I got a chance to watch him in training camp last year, and has back-to-back games with a touchdown, and an increased workload over the past month. Brate scored his first touchdown of the season against the Falcons, and could find the scoreboard again at the minimum salary on DraftKings. That’s a great deal for a tournament lineup.
The Takeaway: Martin is the preferred option for the Bucs, while Cameron Brate and Charles Sims are DraftKings punt options. Jackson and Evans are tough to trust with a split workload in a matchup with a team with a shutdown corner manning one half of the field, so pick the one you trust more for the occasional tournament lineup, or just avoid them altogether.
