NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Three
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46 | 23 | 0 | 46 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.6 | 20 | 16 | 27 | Offense | 22.9 | 16 | 13 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 30 | 26 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 26 | 29 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 24 | 16 | 28 | Indianapolis Colts | 26 | 20 | 29 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 108 | 54 | 5 | 855 | Robinson | 124 | 65 | 11 | 1080 | |
| Moncrief | 84 | 53 | 5 | 617 | Hurns | 81 | 48 | 7 | 758 | |
| Johnson | 56 | 28 | 3 | 367 | Lee | 16 | 6 | 0 | 97 | |
| Fleener | 66 | 43 | 2 | 372 | Thomas | 56 | 31 | 4 | 298 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Phillip Dorsett, Matt Hasselbeck (IND, Probable), Allen Hurns (JAC, Questionable)
IND Matchup Rating: 5.5
JAC Matchup Rating: 5.5
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck (FD $6,600, DK $5,200) is probably a couple of years too old to be standing behind the offensive line of the Colts, trying to run the offense in place of the injured Andrew Luck. He suffered multiple injuries last week, but none of them appear to be serious, and he’ll give it another shot this week against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. The Jaguars rank 31st against the pass in DVOA, and have allowed the second-most points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. They’ve allowed three or more touchdowns from quarterbacks in three of their last four games, and let Hasselbeck throw for a respectable 282 yards and a score last time these teams met. Hasselbeck would likely do a bit better on 47 attempts against this Jacksonville team in a rematch, but his ability to make it through the game in one piece is reason for concern. The veteran signal caller is a tournament option with high upside against a very bad defense. 
Running Game: The Jaguars have one of the best yards per attempt allowed figures in the NFL, but have given up 11 touchdowns on the ground and appear to be weakening against the run as the season goes on. The Titans were able to run well against them a week ago, and the Colts will look to mix in a running play or two as they toss the ball around against their poor pass defense. Frank Gore (FD $6,100, DK $4,300) will carry the ball out of the backfield and handle most of the passing game duties for the rest of the year, and he’s an appealing option, even in a tough matchup. He’s extremely affordable, and has a pretty consistent level of volume, with 25, 29, 19, 21, and 16 (in a blowout loss) touches in his last five games. This won’t be a blowout loss, and while 20 touches against the Jacksonville run defense isn’t ideal, it could still lead to a touchdown and a few receptions, making Gore a solid GPP play.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,000, DK $5,900) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) are the guys Hasselbeck will look to in the passing game, setting aside last week’s disaster against the Steelers as a rare instance of Griff Whalen (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) getting some run in the offense. Hilton and Moncrief are first and second on the team in targets, and have 10 combined touchdowns. One or both should add to that total against the Jaguars, who have allowed 13 touchdowns to wideouts this season, including three in the past two weeks. According to DVOA, the Jaguars are weakest against tight ends and secondary and tertiary receiving options, so Moncrief is the top play, while Coby Fleener (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is interesting in tournaments. Hilton is a great play, as well, especially on non-PPR sites, where his big play ability will be rewarded more heavily should he breakaway for a long touchdown.
The Takeaway: The Colts are in a good spot to score a bunch of points against the Jaguars, who appear to be regressing as a run defense and continuing to struggle against the pass. Hasselbeck and Moncrief are the top plays, while Hilton, Gore and Fleener are solid choices as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles (FD $7,700, DK $6,000) has been one of the most prolific passers in the NFL this season, and while his interceptions and accuracy often leave fans of the Jaguars wanting more from their quarterback, his multi-touchdown upside means fantasy football players are happy more often than not with the UCF product. Bortles had five touchdown passes last week, and faces a defense that has allowed three or more touchdown passes in three of their last seven games. The odds are fairly good for Bortles to toss three or more scores in this one, as the Jaguars try to keep up with an offense that may score often against their struggling defense. Bortles has a higher floor than a lot of other quarterbacks in his price range, as he throws a touchdown in every game and has some rushing ability, as well. He’s viable in cash games and an attractive GPP option in what should be a high-scoring game to help figure out the AFC South.
Running Game: The Colts have bottled up opposing rushing attacks a couple of times this season, but have generally been average against the run. They rank 12th in fantasy points allowed, 12th in DVOA, and 12th in numberFire’s metrics against the run, and face a very pedestrian Jacksonville rushing attack this week. T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,400, DK $4,900) finally found the end zone as a runner this past weekend, but generally is good for 15-20 touches and 3-4 yards per rushing attempt, with upside for a nice day as a receiver. The Colts rank 12th (shocking, right?) at defending backs in the passing game, and are not a favorable matchup for such an average rushing attack.
Pass Catchers: Allen Hurns (FD $6,600, DK $5,500) appears ready to return to the Jacksonville lineup, taking away a bit of the upside we saw Allen Robinson (FD $8,500, DK $8,000) flash last weekend, when he scored three touchdowns and had a career game. Robinson is still capable of that on any given weekend, but Hurns’ presence means there’s another quality receiver running routes and getting open for touchdowns. The Colts rank second in fantasy points allowed to receivers, meaning this is a great matchup for the duo of Allens, who combined for 27 targets last time these teams met. Hurns had the better numbers in that meeting, and will likely avoid Vontae Davis (who isn’t playing all that well, but he’s much better than any other Indy defensive back), giving him a slight edge, but both players are great options this weekend. Julius Thomas (FD $5,900, DK $4,200) has touchdowns in three straight appearances, and has higher upside than most other tight ends, and is viable in an average tight end matchup (IND ranks 13th in points allowed and 18th in DVOA against tight ends).
The Takeaway: Bortles and Hurns are the top stack for the Jaguars, while Robinson remains a great option every weekend, and Thomas is a solid play, as well. This should be a high-scoring game, and you’ll want to get exposure to it somehow.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
| San Diego Chargers | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.5 | 45.5 | 17.5 | -10.5 | 45.5 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.6 | 25 | 3 | 30 | Offense | 26.8 | 5 | 26 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 7 | 17 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 29 | 14 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 6 | 31 | 1 | San Diego Chargers | 13 | 28 | 7 | 20 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Floyd | 49 | 23 | 3 | 436 | Maclin | 94 | 66 | 5 | 862 | |
| Johnson | 65 | 45 | 3 | 497 | Wilson | 37 | 21 | 1 | 292 | |
| Inman | 39 | 21 | 2 | 301 | Thomas | 24 | 17 | 2 | 174 | |
| Gates | 61 | 39 | 4 | 421 | Kelce | 81 | 56 | 4 | 731 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stevie Johnson, Dontrelle Inman (SD, Questionable)
SD Matchup Rating: 3.0
KC Matchup Rating: 6.5
San Diego Chargers 
Quarterback: Just a couple of months ago, a matchup with Kansas City was a must-play situation for the San Diego passing offense. But as the Chargers have lost talent at receiver and on the offensive line, and as the Chiefs have improved on defense, this has instead changed into a matchup to avoid. Over the past seven games, quarterbacks have combined for nine touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Philip Rivers (FD $7,600, DK $6,000) has three games with one touchdown or fewer in his last four outings, and has only one 300-yard effort over that span. The Chiefs have evolved into a top-five pass defense, and should be respected at home against a sputtering pass offense.
Running Game: Melvin Gordon (FD $5,300, DK $3,800) cannot hold onto the football, nor can he score when he does manage to hold the ball securely, so even in a good matchup, he wouldn’t be a viable fantasy option. Danny Woodhead (FD $5,400, DK $4,400) will likely see a healthy amount of responsibility in the offense moving forward, but Kansas City has limited runners and receivers out of the backfield all season. This isn’t a situation to invest in for daily fantasy purposes.
Pass Catchers: When teams find success through the air against the Chiefs this season, it is normally by way of a star wideout (Cobb, Watkins, Hopkins, Sanders, Diggs, Brown, Thomas). The Chargers don’t have one of those, and are incredibly thin at the receiver position heading down the stretch. Kansas City has an elite pass defense against tight ends (fewest fantasy points allowed, second in DVOA), which rules out either of the San Diego tight ends. Don’t waste time looking for a San Diego pass catcher in this matchup.
The Takeaway: The Bolts are going to struggle to score against Kansas City, who have been very good on defense in recent weeks. Avoid Charger offensive talent in daily fantasy this weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The last time these teams played, Alex Smith (FD $6,800, DK $5,100) didn’t need to do much in a big win for Kansas City. The Chiefs raced out to a big lead and didn’t require their quarterback to throw downfield or run all that often, and he failed to find the end zone despite good per-attempt passing numbers. This time around, it could be Smith who is integral in the team’s scoring ahead of a likely blowout scoreline, but it’s tough to predict just how big of a fantasy score he’s capable of producing. Smith needs to run to truly have a breakout fantasy game, as his 250-yard, two-touchdown passing ceiling leaves a lot to be desired. But if he can combine that with 50 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground, he’ll win a tournament or two for those who roster him. His floor isn’t as safe as a lot of other quarterbacks, but at home against the 29th ranked pass defense (per DVOA), I am willing to take a chance on him in all formats, but prefer him in tournaments.
Running Game: Spencer Ware (FD $5,800, DK $4,500) punched in two touchdowns the last time these teams met, which helped earn him a spot in the regular running back rotation for Kansas City moving forward. Both he and Charcandrick West (FD $5,800, DK $5,100) should see a healthy amount of looks against the league’s second-worst DVOA run defense, but neither looks to be an obviously better play than the other. Both are viable in tournaments, and it may come down to scoring systems (Ware preferred in non-PPR formats, West in PPR scoring games) as to which one you play in a GPP.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,900, DK $5,500) and Travis Kelce (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) dominate the targets in the Kansas City offense, as they are the only players to see more than 40 passing looks so far this season. The duo are the only Kansas City pass catchers with more than one receiving touchdown, and with more than 300 yards through the air. The Chargers rank 31st in defending opposing tight ends per DVOA, and 24th at defending opposing WR1. And while Maclin will see a healthy amount of in this matchup, that doesn’t preclude him from a big game. It just means Kelce is the preferred daily fantasy asset, and is viable in all formats, while Maclin is more of a GPP play.
The Takeaway: Smith and Kelce are your top options for a Kansas City offense that should roll against a struggling San Diego defense. Ware, West and Maclin are all viable in tournaments. The Kansas City defense is worth a look as a top play in all formats, as they’ve been generating lots of turnovers in recent weeks, have good pass rushers, and should keep the points allowed to a minimum this weekend.
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
| Washington Redskins | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Soldier Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.4 | 21 | 20 | 25 | Offense | 20.9 | 24 | 24 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 18 | 2 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 17 | 11 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 16 | 9 | 12 | 3 | Washington Redskins | 14 | 16 | 20 | 12 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 31 | 18 | 3 | 292 | Jeffery | 80 | 47 | 2 | 690 | |
| Garcon | 84 | 54 | 3 | 562 | Royal | 36 | 26 | 1 | 170 | |
| Crowder | 64 | 48 | 1 | 450 | Wilson | 51 | 28 | 1 | 464 | |
| Reed | 83 | 58 | 6 | 574 | Bennett | 80 | 53 | 3 | 439 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Chris Thompson (WAS, Doubtful), Martellus Bennett (CHI, Out), Marquess Wilson (CHI, Questionable)
WAS Matchup Rating: 3.0
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: The “You like that!” era for Kirk Cousins (FD $7,000, DK $5,100) has seemingly ended before it ever began, as the Washington QB has thrown just one touchdown pass in each of his last three games, and in ten of his 12 starts this year. Cousins has been a fairly accurate thrower all season and has posted some decent yardage totals, but he’s simply not scoring the two or three touchdowns per week we look for out of quarterbacks in daily fantasy. This week he’ll face a much improved Chicago defense, which has not allowed more than two touchdowns to a passer since Week 6. The Bears now rank 13th in DVOA against the pass and are generally a subpar matchup for opposing quarterbacks, so the average (at best) Cousins isn’t worthy of serious consideration this week.
Running Game: Matt Jones (FD $5,100, DK $3,600) saw a big boost in carries against the Cowboys, but according to Jay Gruden, Alfred Morris (FD $5,500, DK $3,500) is still the starter. Neither back should be on your radar on most weekends, as the duo have been held to just two touchdowns (both from Jones) since Week 2. In fact, Jones has the team’s only rushing touchdowns from a running back, and one of their two receiving scores from backs. But at a rate of four scores in 11 games, that’s not a skill we can bank on. The Bears have a poorly ranked defense (32nd in DVOA, 31st in numberFire’s rankings), but they have managed to hold opposing backs to reasonable fantasy point totals (rank 16th in the league against RBs). This is mainly due to the four rushing touchdowns allowed despite giving up over 1200 yards on the ground to backs on just 272 carries. Washington doesn’t score often, especially on the ground, and the Bears don’t allow scores often on the ground. That’s a good enough reason to avoid this situation, but if you want to bank on some regression, Jones would be the player to choose, as he has a better track record of finding the end zone and holds an advantage in red zone carries.
Pass Catchers: Young Kyle Fuller and veteran Tracy Porter have been playing better than expected for Chicago this year, and both grade out as difficult matchups according to Pro Football Focus. They’re a big part of the reason why Chicago is not a joke of a pass defense that is a no-brainer to target in daily fantasy football. That duo will spend most of their time lined up against DeSean Jackson (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) and Pierre Garcon (FD $5,400, DK $4,000), who both saw seven targets last week, and have both been spreading the wealth since Jackson’s return from injury a few weeks ago. Neither player sees enough volume to be a top play, but Jackson always has the ability to get behind a defense for a long touchdown, and is therefore theoretically in play. I just don’t want to chase the one TD Cousins is likely to throw, and hope it will be a long one. Jordan Reed (FD $5,900, DK $5,100) is the best Washington pass catcher, and is always a solid choice at a tough position. The Bears rank 24th in DVOA against tight ends, so despite seemingly tough numbers in the DvP department, Chicago is an easy enough matchup to trust the Washington tight end.
The Takeaway: Jordan Reed is the top pick for a Washington offense that’s unlikely to score often against an improving Chicago defense. Matt Jones and DeSean Jackson are the other players worth considering.
Chicago Bears 
Quarterback: If we throw away the performance of Matt Cassel, the Washington defense has allowed multiple touchdown throws in previous six games, and in eight of their last nine. Jay Cutler (FD $6,700, DK $5,100), on the other hand, has been held to just one touchdown over his last three starts, including a real letdown game in what looked like a great spot against the Niners last week. Cutler does have five multi-touchdown games this year, but has otherwise been fairly limited, as the Bears have scored on the ground nearly as often as they have through the air. Cutler is not a cash game option, but this matchup does present the possibility for three touchdowns and 300 yards at a very low ownership level, so don’t ignore Cutler in tournaments.
Running Game: The Washington run defense has allowed some respectable rushing performances so far this season, and with the Bears leaning toward the run in recent weeks, this could be a good situation to target. Matt Forte (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) led all Chicago backs with 26 targets against the 49ers, while Jeremy Langford (FD $5,400, DK $4,400) had 12 and Ka’Deem Carey (FD $4,600, DK $3,200) frustratingly had five, including a touchdown. We can expect that touchdown to go to Forte or Langford in most instances in the future, which is good news, because both players looked pretty good in their new, more “limited” roles. Forte still had 26 touches despite coming off the field more often than normal (he was playing 70 snaps per game prior to his injury, and has been in the mid-30s to mid-40s in the two games since his return), and would be the back to target against Washington. The Giants were unable to get anything going against the Washington defense (which is no surprise), but among teams with decent running backs, the track record against Jay Gruden’s team is pretty encouraging. Prior to Darren McFadden, who scored a touchdown on 14 carries, there was a 102-yard plus a receiving touchdown outing from Jonathan Stewart, a five-carry, 77-yard appearance in a blowout win for Mark Ingram, and four-straight 100-yard rushing performances from Devonta Freeman, Chris Ivory, Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount in Weeks 5-9. Touchdowns haven’t been all that frequent against the rushing defense of Washington, but Forte is still the team’s leading rusher and is third in red zone targets despite missing time. If anyone is going to score this week for the Bears, it’s likely to be Forte.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,500, DK $6,900) has only played in seven games this season, and still has the team lead in targets and red zone targets. When he’s playing, he’s the guy Jay Cutler looks for when dropping back to pass. Alshon’s 12 targets did only turn into four catches last week against San Francisco, which should turn around this week against a Washington defense that has allowed some big games to opposing WR1s. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall all have 100+ yard, one-touchdown performances against Washington, and Jeffery should be able to match that feat if he sees another 12 targets against this defense. And with Martellus Bennett out for the year, more red zone responsibility will shift to Jeffery, increasing his touchdown upside against a defense that has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns to wideouts this year. Bennett’s absence also brings Zach Miller (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) into play at the tight end position, as he was seven targets with Bennett sidelined in week 12. Washington ranks 21st in DVOA against the position, and Miller has four red zone targets in limited playing time already this year.
The Takeaway: Cutler, Forte, Jeffery and Miller are all viable in tournaments, but tough to trust elsewhere due to the inconsistencies in the Chicago offense in general. Jeffery is the best cash game option thanks to his consistent volume, but even then, there are plenty of great wideouts with high volumes available this week.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
| Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 46.5 | 19.25 | -8 | 46.5 | 27.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.3 | 14 | 6 | 16 | Offense | 31.1 | 3 | 27 | 3 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.3 | 9 | 9 | 2 | Opp. Defense | 21.4 | 12 | 8 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 8 | 15 | 11 | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 32 | 2 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 158 | 102 | 6 | 1338 | Brown | 32 | 19 | 3 | 269 | |
| White | 51 | 30 | 1 | 347 | Ginn | 77 | 35 | 6 | 580 | |
| Hardy | 15 | 11 | 0 | 100 | Funchess | 42 | 19 | 3 | 298 | |
| Tamme | 66 | 47 | 1 | 541 | Olsen | 104 | 62 | 6 | 917 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jacob Tamme (ATL, Questionable)
ATL Matchup Rating: 3.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $7,100, DK $6,100) has yet to put it all together and post a great fantasy score, as his most prolific outing (against the Colts) was also his most wasteful in terms of turnovers. Outside of that game, Ryan has been extremely mediocre, never scoring more than two touchdowns and rarely providing big yardage numbers. He hasn’t taken advantage of favorable matchups (295/2 against the Saints, 363/1 against the Giants), and just generally seems to be a low-ceiling player despite having the one of the best receivers in the league. This week’s game against the Panthers, who have one of the best defenses in the league, rules Ryan out of consideration completely. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers at home are the only quarterbacks to score more than two times against the Panthers, and most passers wind up throwing more picks than touchdowns against this team. Ryan likely has a 250/2/2 type of stat line on deck, and you don’t want to pay for that in daily fantasy football.
Running Game: Outside of his incredible five-game stretch earlier this year in which he scored ten touchdowns, Devonta Freeman (FD $8,700, DK $7,700) has scored only once on 115 touches. He does have some solid performances as a receiver, but has struggled as a runner in recent weeks, especially in his last two full appearances (12/12/0 against SF, 14/47/0 against TB). The Panthers rank third in DVOA against the run, and have not allowed a single back to rush for more than 60 yards since Week 8. Freeman is still priced like a two-touchdown-per-week fantasy superstar, and he doesn’t appear to be that player anymore. 
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $8,800, DK $8,900) has spoken out about his role in the Atlanta offense, and for good reason. After staring off the year on record-setting pace, he was hobbled by injury and struggled to get back into the offense. But I’m going to set aside “squeaky wheel” narratives against Josh Norman. Norman is the league’s best corner, and will line up toe-to-toe with Jones for most of this contest. Jones is one of a select few capable of getting open and finding success against Norman, but not at a rate that we can bank on for daily fantasy purposes. With Leonard Hankerson done for the year, the other targets in the passing game seem to be spread out among a handful of players, with Jacob Tamme (FD $5,200, DK $3,400) and Roddy White (FD $5,500, DK $3,200) leading the way. These veterans are unlikely to do anything special against an elite pass defense, especially Tamme, who faces a Carolina team that ranks first in TE defense, according to DVOA.
The Takeaway: The Panthers have an elite defense, and survived a road game in New Orleans with their undefeated record in tact. A home game against the Falcons should be a return to normal for the Carolina defenders, and a low-scoring day for Matt Ryan and company is likely on the way.
Carolina Panthers 
Quarterback: Cam Newton (FD $9,200, DK $7,500) has been a part of 32 touchdowns so far this season, meaning he’s averaging nearly three scores per game. He has been throwing the ball very well lately, with 100+ passer ratings in four of his last five, and three games with 3+ passing touchdowns over that span. He also has three rushing touchdowns and three 45+ yard rushing performances over the pas five weeks. A disappointing outing against Dallas is the only blemish on the past month of starts for Newton, who will now turn his attention to a division rival that ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 20th in numberFire’s metrics. The Falcons rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, but that number seems to disagree with their advanced metrics. Opponents complete passes at a high rate against Atlanta (ninth-highest opponent completion percentage), but don’t do much with those passes. That’s partially due to an elite corner in Desmond Trufant helping shut down top pass catchers, but also likely due to some combination of good coaching and good fortune. Newton is on a roll, and is the kind of player we can bank on to break through against an over-performing defensive team. He’s in play in all formats thanks to his high floor (rushing yards, volume) and high ceiling (multi-touchdown potential, rushing touchdowns worth more points).
Running Game: Another reason why the Falcons may be allowing so few fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks is because running backs have been able to do so well against them this year. Opponents have rushed for 15 touchdowns against Atlanta this year, and while they haven’t done so at an impressive yards-per-attempt clip, the volume and touchdown upside are all there. Also, backs have seen a league-high 110 targets and 90 receptions against the Falcons, who rank 30th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. The news about touchdowns is great for Jonathan Stewart (FD $7,200, DK $5,800), but the passing game news isn’t as big of a deal for the veteran back. Stewart does see a couple of targets per game, but nothing to bank on for daily fantasy purposes, especially with Mike Tolbert (FD $4,600, DK $3,000) and others lurking to take those opportunities. But Stewart is the team’s top option in the red zone, with 44 carries, more than 20 more than any other Panther, and half of the team’s overall rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. The Panthers love to run the ball the closer they get to the end zone, with nearly 60% of their red zone snaps resulting in a carry, so look for Stewart to find the end zone against a touchdown-friendly Atlanta defense.
Pass Catchers: Desmond Trufant plays his side in the Atlanta defense, meaning we don’t have to worry about any one player being taken away by one of the league’s elite young corners. We do have to worry about Ted Ginn (FD $6,000, DK $3,700) dropping perfect passes, and about Jerricho Cotchery (FD $5,300, DK $3,200) and company seeing enough volume to be worth it for daily fantasy. Ginn is the only wideout to trust, as he sees volume despite his brutal lack of consistency, and could break a big play against a non-Trufant defender at any time. But as is normally the case for the Panthers, the top pass catcher is tight end Greg Olsen (FD $6,600, DK $6,900). His price is starting to creep up a bit on some sites, but he still represents a safe play at a position filled with tough-to-trust players with uncertain roles and volume. He’s the primary target when the Panthers decide to throw in the red zone, and faces a defense that’s allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season. That’s a recipe for touchdown upside, which we need from such an expensive player at the position.
The Takeaway: Newton, Stewart and Olsen are the top picks from a Carolina offense that should have a less stressful outing against the struggling Falcons. Ted Ginn Jr. is also in play, but is always a risk due to his inconsistency.
