NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-12-10 15:27:57

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Redskins						Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		0	47	23.5				0	47	23.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.3	10	2	10		Offense	22.3	19	25	11
Opp. Defense	20.4	10	14	15		Opp. Defense	24.6	20	20	22
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	12	9	26	2		Washington Redskins	18	28	14	21
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jackson	74	39	3	644		Matthews	89	57	3	686
Garcon	85	59	2	714		Agholor	56	31	1	287
Crowder	84	58	7	767		Green-Beckham	64	33	2	359
Reed	81	59	5	630		Ertz	67	47	2	452

Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Reed (WAS TE) – Questionable (Shoulder) / Ryan Mathews (PHI RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Knee) / Jordan Matthews (PHI WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle) / Dorial Green-Beckham (PHI WR) – Questionable (Abdomen)

WAS Matchup Rating: 6.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.0

Washington Redskins

Quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins didn’t have his best game in a tough matchup against Arizona in Week 13, throwing for 271 yards and one touchdown with one interception. He did add a touchdown on a quarterback sneak, which helped his fantasy output. We obviously can’t count on him for that going forward. He has another tough matchup this week against a good Philadelphia pass defense that is allowing 245 yards per game through the air and ranks 4th in DVOA against the pass. I must say, though, that it seems strange how cheap he is on both sites given his performance over the past month. He is very affordable at $7,600 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings, and the Eagles haven’t been quite as good defensively of late. If you want to play the trends, with this game basically being a pick-em in Vegas, Cousins is an awfully sneaky play in this spot.

Running Backs: Rob Kelley continues to play the lead back role in Washington, garnering most of the early down and goal line work. Chris Thompson gets the majority of the passing downs, as Kelley is definitely not an asset in the pass catching department. The Redskins are a middle of the pack rush offense, and the Eagles are a middle of the pack rush defense. Kelley is still very cheap on DraftKings, but he carries less value there with his limited pass catching. I will likely avoid this situation entirely in Week 14, though I see the possible appeal with Kelley where he is more affordable. Again, there aren’t a lot of reliable cheap plays on this slate, so we have to consider the value plays that are available.

Pass Catchers: Some folks might play up the revenge angle for DeSean Jackson, but is that really still a thing for him? Some will argue that it’s not a thing at all. To each their own, right? In any case, Jackson is what he is: a boom/bust option that is dependent on the big play. He made a few of them on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys and had a big day. He made one last week, but that was his only catch (a 59 yarder that did not go for a score). As you know, you can only consider Jackson in GPPs. Jamison Crowder is a bit banged up right now, so Pierre Garcon is a reasonable low to mid range cash game target at receiver, though his upside is limited. He has played on at least 68% of the snaps in every game this season. Keep an eye on the status of Jordan Reed. If he sits out again, Vernon Davis could be a viable low-cost target at tight end.

The Takeaway: The Redskins would appear to be the better team, which is why this game has a pick-em line despite Washington being on the road. I don’t love anyone from the Redskins here, but you could squeeze some value out of a guy like Robert Kelley, Pierre Garcon, or Vernon Davis (if Jordan Reed is out). Kirk Cousins is a sneaky play at quarterback given his cheap price tag and recent play, especially since the Eagles have been a little leakier on defense of late.

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterbacks: The Eagles offense has been a sputtering unit of late, and they haven’t scored more than 24 points as a team since Week 3. That pretty much fits the definition of a team with capped offensive upside. They were down 19-0 at halftime against the Bengals last week, so Carson Wentz was forced to throw the ball a whopping 60 times in the game. This helped inflate his yardage numbers, but he had just one touchdown to three interceptions in that game. He has just five touchdowns and ten interceptions over his last seven games. Washington doesn’t have a strong defense, but they are more vulnerable against the run, and this is a game that — in theory — the Eagles should be able to be competitive in. Assuming they keep it close throughout, I don’t expect Wentz to chuck the ball a ton in this game. Obviously, there are better fantasy quarterbacks out there in Week 14.

Running Backs: This area is generally where we can take some players against the Redskins, but… it’s the Eagles backfield. Do I need to say anything else? We haven’t been able to trust anything Doug Pederson says regarding the usage of his backs. When he praises Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles becomes the lead guy. When he finally admits that Sproles is the man, Mathews gets involved again. When someone gets hurt, it’s Wendell Smallwood. The Eagles have done nothing on the ground over the last two games with Mathews sidelined, and he is expected to return this week. I have absolutely no idea who to target here. Sproles gets the general nod from me in PPR formats, and he is a reasonable play at $4,400 on DraftKings. Nobody is safe here, regardless of what the head coach tries to tell you.

Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews missed a couple of games for the Eagles, and the coaching staff has finally soured on the disappointing Nelson Agholor. This ended up making Dorial Green-Beckham a very popular value play a week ago, and he didn’t make much of the opportunity. He had just four catches for 29 yards on ten targets, and he left the game early after taking a shot to the stomach from Vontaze Burfict. His status is still unclear for this week. Matthews is expected to return, and he will likely see a lot of Josh Norman in this game. Zach Ertz is coming off a 9/79/1 performance last week and is a fine tight end target here, while Paul Turner could draw some value intrigue if Green-Beckham doesn’t play. Turner had a solid 6/80 line last week on eight targets.

The Takeaway: The Eagles haven’t been great offensively of late, and they have quite a few moving parts in their offense with two players likely to return this week. The running game is frustrating to figure out, and Darren Sproles (in PPR formats) seems like the best target of the group. That is far from a ringing endorsement, however. If Dorial Green-Beckham is forced to sit out, Paul Turner and Zach Ertz get some added value in the passing game, and Ertz is coming off a 15 target performance last week. Unfortunately, it’s still hard to trust the passing game with a scuffling Carson Wentz at quarterback.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

Arizona Cardinals						Miami Dolphins
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	43	21				-1	43	22
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	23.0	17	4	17		Offense	21.3	22	27	8
Opp. Defense	23.2	18	12	30		Opp. Defense	20.9	11	3	11
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	29	15	17	25		Arizona Cardinals	4	2	12	1
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	122	89	5	885		Landry	103	75	2	822
Floyd	67	31	4	428		Parker	68	44	3	583
Nelson	42	21	3	315		Stills	56	28	5	501
Gresham	43	27	2	263		Sims	25	18	1	206

Notable injuries and suspensions: John Brown (ARI WR) – Questionable (Illness) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Back)

ARI Matchup Rating: 6.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterbacks: The ghost of Carson Palmer showed up last week, as he torched the Redskins for 300 yards and three touchdowns while avoiding the turnover bug. Perhaps he can keep the momentum going against a Miami team that ceded 381 passing yards to Joe Flacco of all people a week ago. Of course, you all know my feelings on Palmer at this point, and Miami generally doesn’t have that poor of a defense. They rank 13th in DVOA against the pass and 11th in terms of yardage in that department, even after that debacle against the Ravens. I will stick to my guns and not play Palmer, but part of that is because I am stubborn. I get the appeal at his value price tag, especially if you are still a supporter of his ability to perform in this offense. It does help that he has the most electric running back in the league playing on his side.

Running Backs: What else can we say at this point? David Johnson is the best player in fantasy football. Period. He has logged at least 33 fantasy points on DraftKings in each of the last three games, an insane figure for any player. He’s 33rd in the league in receiving yards, as a running back. He’s 3rd in the league in rushing yards. Miami ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run, so the matchup is fine. If you can fit Johnson into your lineup, do it. It’s that simple at this point.

Pass Catchers: Michael Floyd is on the downside of his career, but he keeps on re-appearing when we think he’s done for. J.J. Nelson became a thing for a while, but he disappeared as quickly as he busted onto the scene. David Johnson, as mentioned above, catches a lot of passes. We can’t really rely on anyone here outside of the ever-consistent Larry Fitzgerald. He remains a fine red zone target and caught ten balls last week against Washington. If you are fading David Johnson because of price or game theory reasons, you can certainly swerve to Fitzgerald, especially in a tournament format. He should be fine against a defense that got torched a week ago.

The Takeaway: David Johnson is mighty good, and that helps the prospects for this whole offense. Defenses have to key in on Johnson, which gives Carson Palmer more room to operate even though he is on the decline. Larry Fitzgerald gets a boost as well, though the rest of the receiving corps is frustratingly inconsistent. Stick with the known quantities on this team, as they will give you the most reliable production. Johnson and Fitzgerald are those safe options.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterbacks: The Dolphins were generally disregarded in terms of being a good team despite their six game winning streak heading into last week’s game in Baltimore, and it looks like there was good reason for that skepticism. Outside of the Steelers, they didn’t beat a single team with a winning record in that stretch of games. Ryan Tannehill saw his performance take a step backwards against the Ravens, and he draws another tough matchup against an Arizona defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the pass. The matchup does get an upgrade if Tyrann Mathieu happens to sit out for another week, but that’s not enough to interest me in Tannehill here. Look elsewhere for your DFS quarterback option this week.

Running Backs: We all keep waiting for the big games to come again for Jay Ajayi, but they just haven’t been there of late. Last week’s game can be chalked up to game flow, as he actually did run well when he got the ball in that contest. They also have Laremy Tunsil back, which should help Ajayi’s outlook moving forward. His current discount makes him more appealing on a week where value is hard to come by, and Arizona is more vulnerable via the run than the pass. Give Ajayi a look this week if you need a mid-range running back option, as the Dolphins should look to establish the run game against at home against Arizona.

Pass Catchers: It looked like DeVante Parker was going to miss last week’s game, but he ended up giving it a go against the Ravens, and he actually scored the team’s only offensive touchdown. Despite Parker’s presence, we saw Jarvis Landry have the type of game we all expected him to have early in the season — a PPR-machine type game with 11 catches for 87 yards. He gets a boost if Mathieu happens to sit this week, and he is in play on full-PPR sites like DraftKings if that is the case. The big play threats in Parker and Kenny Stills carry more appeal on FanDuel. Arizona does a great job at defending the tight end position, but that doesn’t matter against a Miami team that rarely uses the tight end position.

The Takeaway: This is a difficult matchup for the Dolphins, and I expect them to try and establish the run after getting pounded by the Ravens a week ago. With Laremy Tunsil back in action and the rest of the offensive line healing, this could be the opportunity for Jay Ajayi and the running game to get back on track. The passing game is of less interest to me, though Jarvis Landry gets a boost on PPR sites if Tyrann Mathieu sits out for another game. There’s no need to go overboard on the Dolphins in this spot, even though they are at home.

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers

San Diego Chargers						Carolina Panthers
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		1	48	23.5				-1	48	24.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.8	4	8	21		Offense	23.6	14	18	13
Opp. Defense	26.8	28	32	8		Opp. Defense	26.6	27	26	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Carolina Panthers	25	11	29	29		San Diego Chargers	15	28	11	22
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Benjamin	65	42	3	546		Benjamin	95	50	5	754
Williams	89	53	6	837		Ginn	67	41	3	569
Inman	67	40	3	576		Funchess	45	20	3	329
Gates	61	34	5	327		Olsen	97	61	3	820

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

SD Matchup Rating: 7.0
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5

San Diego Chargers

Quarterbacks: The Carolina team is in disarray, so that makes this matchup a little more appealing for Philip Rivers and company. The west-to-east trip from San Diego to Carolina is generally a concern, but the fact that they are facing a scuffling team alleviates that to some degree. The Chargers aren’t afraid to let Rivers sling the ball around, so they will likely look to take advantage of a Carolina pass defense that is tied with New Orleans as the second worst team in the NFL against the pass, allowing 277 yards per game through the air. Rivers is slightly over-priced for my liking, but he definitely has some appeal if he fits your roster build.

Running Backs: Melvin Gordon finally rediscovered the end zone last week, and he reminded us of his week to week stability with his current unquestioned lead back role. He plays as many snaps as any running back not named Le’Veon Bell, and he also led the team in receiving a week ago. He totaled 138 total yards against the Bucs, and he is in play even though this isn’t the best matchup for the running game. There are plenty of high-end running backs in play this week, so I will likely look to the plethora of other options. That said, Gordon is an interesting game theory play in GPPs, as his ownership will likely be around 10% or less in most formats.

Pass Catchers: Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin have both battled injuries for the last month or two, and it has hindered the production for both guys to an extent. Williams had been playing well, but he struggled playing through a shoulder injury last week. Though he scored on one of his catches, he caught just two passes for 47 yards. With both Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates in the fold at tight end and Dontrelle Inman picking up his play, there are simply too many available pass catchers for us to be able to trust any of them on a week by week basis. Inman is the safest cash game target at this point, but he doesn’t come cheap. Assuming Williams is healthy, he would be my preferred play against a leaky secondary that has really been struggling this year. Keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week to see if we can gain any clarity here.

The Takeaway: Philip Rivers should have a nice game against a beatable secondary, and he is in play for all formats if you are searching for a mid-range target at quarterback. The key is finding the right weapon to pair him with in a GPP. Tyrell Williams is my preferred target if healthy, and we might have to wait until closer to game day for an update on his shoulder injury. Melvin Gordon is as safe as they come thanks to his reliable workload, but he isn’t my favorite option in the crowded upper tier of running backs this week.

Carolina Panthers

Quarterbacks: The Panthers are an absolute mess right now. For reasons unknown to most of mankind, Ron Rivera claims to have benched Cam Newton to start last Sunday night’s game as punishment for not wearing a tie at some point last week. Whether that’s true or not, it’s most definitely strange. Most football players have done things far worse without getting any sort of punishment. It was just a strange way to send a message to the team, let alone the star player. Of course, Derek Anderson poetically threw an interception on the first play from scrimmage. That’s awfully poetic. I can see this game going one of two ways. Either Newton and the Panthers just pack it in and keep playing terribly, or they come out with some purpose in this one and play great. Their recent performance doesn’t inspire confidence, and Newton remains over-priced given his play this season. He is a risk/reward, GPP-only option at this point.

Running Backs: Jonathan Stewart was a low-upside guy even when this team was rolling last year. Now, there is pretty much no reason to even consider him. He doesn’t have a single 100 yard rushing game this year, and he only has worthwhile fantasy performances on the rare occasion when he manages to find the end zone. In a strange twist, he has touchdowns in just four games this year, but he has two touchdowns in three of those four games. He isn’t cheap enough to entice me at $5,400 on DraftKings and $6,500 on FanDuel. Then again, I can’t remember the last time I have rostered Stewart, so I must admit that there is a little negative bias here on my behalf.

Pass Catchers: Ted Ginn has busted a long touchdown reception in each of the last two games, and this feels like the definition of the word “trap.” He’s as boom or bust as it gets, which relegates him as yet another GPP-only option. In addition, he is going to be over-owned this week after those last two performances. I’ll be looking elsewhere. It would be nice if he saw some Casey Hayward coverage, too. If you are looking for a leverage play off Ginn, you could consider Kelvin Benjamin, who has disappointed since the first game of the year. Greg Olsen is generally one of the safest plays at tight end, but he hasn’t cleared 50 yards in any of the last four games.

The Takeaway: Will the “old” Panthers show up at all for the rest of the year, or has this team packed it in? That’s the big question you have to answer for yourself before you decide how to attack this team. Vegas has given the Panthers a fairly decent 24 point team total here, so they at least expect the team to show up to some degree. Cam Newton and one of his receivers might be an interesting GPP pairing this week, but Newton is far too inconsistent to trust in cash games at this point. Will this be the week Greg Olsen gets on track? I prefer taking a shot on Olsen or Benjamin as opposed to the over-owned Ted Ginn here.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati Bengals						Cleveland Browns
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	43	24.25				5.5	43	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	20.4	23	5	14		Offense	16.4	31	20	27
Opp. Defense	29.3	31	18	31		Opp. Defense	21.6	14	15	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Cleveland Browns	31	30	28	28		Cincinnati Bengals	23	24	4	32
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Green	100	66	4	964		Pryor	114	62	4	855
LaFell	71	41	5	552		Coleman	44	20	3	308
Boyd	65	42	1	477		Hawkins	44	25	3	257
Eifert	38	23	3	337		Barnidge	62	40	1	468

Notable injuries and suspensions: A.J. Green (CIN WR) – Out (Hamstring)

CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
CLE Matchup Rating: 5.0

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterbacks: Does anyone really care about this game? Andy Dalton was surprisingly good against the Eagles a week ago, throwing for 332 yards and a pair of scores on the day. He has a good chance to keep things rolling against Cleveland’s poor defense, though injuries have limited the overall upside of the offense. I don’t like chasing points, but this is a great matchup against a bad defense, and Dalton remains cheap on almost every site. I probably won’t play him in cash games, but he is on the GPP radar.

Running Backs: Unfortunately, the relative discount on Jeremy Hill is now gone. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have hiked his price a bit heading into this favorable matchup against the Browns. He has struggled on a per-touch basis in difficult matchups over the last two weeks, but that shouldn’t happen here. Hill also hasn’t been playing a full complement of snaps, as Rex Burkhead has taken on a similar role to Giovani Bernard since Bernard went down. I think Hill will play well in this game against a Cleveland defense that ranks just 29th in DVOA against the run, but he is definitely not a must play at his current price tags.

Pass Catchers: Even though Andy Dalton was really good last week, none of his receivers had massive days. Nine different players caught passes, and nobody had more than five catches. Brandon LaFell played on 94% of the offensive snaps, while Tyler Boyd logged a 66% snap rate. Cody Core ranked third amongst the wide receivers at 47%. Both LaFell and Boyd are still very affordable on FD and DK, and they are fine value plays once again this week. LaFell is the safer cash game option, while I like Boyd’s upside in GPPs. Tyler Eifert is a fine tight end play, too. He should have the opportunity to find the end zone for a third straight week.

The Takeaway: Cleveland’s defense is pretty much bad at every level, so feel free to target some Cincinnati skill players here. It helps that all of them are relatively affordable, especially with A.J. Green likely to sit out for at least one more week. Andy Dalton is in the value discussion at quarterback, Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd are great values at wide receiver, and Jeremy Hill has a great matchup at running back. To round things out, you can consider Tyler Eifert as a fine play at tight end.

Cleveland Browns

Quarterbacks: The Browns remain winless, and coming out of the bye week they have given FOUR quarterbacks first-team reps in practice – Robert Griffin, Cody Kessler, Josh McCown, and Kevin Hogan. It sounds like Griffin is going to get the start in this one, but he hasn’t played in months. It makes no sense to take the risk with a guy who has never been able to stay healthy throughout his career, especially since he is quarterbacking a winless squad.

Running Backs: Isaiah Crowell has played on 54% of the snaps this year, while Duke Johnson has played on 48% of the snaps. This is a dead even time share for a winless team that is averaging just 90 team rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL). In a word: no.

Pass Catchers: Terrelle Pryor remains the clear #1 receiver on the Browns, and he has seen a total of 51 targets over the team’s last five games. The touchdowns have been hard to come by for a winless team, but the volume is there. I am a little worried about how he will perform with Griffin back under center, so Pryor is a GPP-only option at this point. Nobody else is even worth considering.

The Takeaway: Hey, it’s Cleveland. Don’t bother with anyone outside of Terrelle Pryor, and even he carries plenty of risk with Griffin likely back under center in Week 14. However, I must admit that I won’t be surprised if the Browns win this game. This is the most winnable game on the rest of their schedule. However, it must be noted that the Bengals have been playing much better defense of late; they are a decent defensive option this week.

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