NFL Grind Down: Week 2 - Page Two
Jump to Page 1 2 3 4
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
| New Orleans Saints | New York Giants | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 53 | 24.25 | -4.5 | 53 | 28.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 34.0 | 5 | 1 | 19 | Offense | 20.0 | 21 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 10 | 12 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 35.0 | 29 | 24 | 32 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 30 | 25 | 24 | 31 | New Orleans Saints | 32 | 30 | 26 | 32 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 9 | 6 | 2 | 143 | Beckham | 8 | 4 | 0 | 73 | |
| Snead | 9 | 9 | 1 | 172 | Shepard | 4 | 3 | 1 | 43 | |
| Coleman | Cruz | 4 | 4 | 1 | 34 | |||||
| Fleener | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | Donnell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Delvin Breaux (NO CB) – Out (Fibula) / Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG DE) – Questionable (Shoulder)
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 9.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: Drew Brees was absolutely magnificent in last week’s contest, becoming the first player in modern history to throw for 400+ yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions despite his team losing a game. That speaks to how awful the Saints defense is, and that’s going to have them playing catch up in a lot of games. That means a lot of pass attempts for Brees, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have one of the best fantasy seasons of his career this year. This is a favorable matchup against the Giants, who have improved this year, but still ranked dead last in the league against the pass. We generally prefer rostering Brees at home, but it’s certainly not the worst play in the world to give him a look in this game.
Running Backs: The Giants defense did a decent job of containing Ezekiel Elliott last week, and their improvements on the defensive side of the football should keep their run defense respectable this year. It was assumed that Mark Ingram would be the workhorse for the Saints this year, especially with C.J. Spiller on his way out. However, the Saints did work Tim Hightower and Travaris Cadet in for some snaps last week, and they will continue to have a role going forward. This offense should run through Brees once again, and Ingram isn’t cheap enough to be on my radar this week.
Pass Catchers: If the Saints continue to be forced into a pass-happy mode, expect Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead to shine. Both were fantastic a week ago, with Cooks hauling in a 98-yard touchdown and Snead grabbing all nine of his targets and parlaying those into 172 yards and a touchdown. Snead is a big time bargain on DraftKings at $5,800, while the pricing on FanDuel seems pretty fair for both of them. Coby Fleener had just one catch last week, and perhaps the rumors were true about him struggling to learn the offense. I will stick with the wideouts in this one.
The Takeaway: The poor Saints defense is going to force them to come from behind in a lot of games this year. That means good things for Drew Brees and his receiving crew. Willie Snead could be a breakout star of 2016 and remains far too cheap on DraftKings, while Brandin Cooks is also primed for a great season. This projects to be the highest scoring game of the week, so expect some fireworks.
New York Giants
Quarterback: The Saints defense was widely expected to be one of the worst in football this season, and now they have lost their best defensive back in Delvin Breaux for an extended period. This is going to be a unit we can pick on for a long time. Derek Carr ripped right through this defense in the opener, and the Giants have the highest projected team total on the board at 29 points. Eli Manning is a bit expensive for my tastes despite the favorable matchup, and he has made a career out of disappointing us in the best of spots, but he should be fine against a legitimately terrible defense.
Running Backs: The Giants have eschewed their three-man committee, leaving just Rashad Jennings and Shane Vereen in the backfield. Their usage will depend on game flow, as Jennings is the early down and goal line guy while Vereen plays in passing downs and hurry up situations. If the Giants happen to fall behind against an explosive Saints offense, Vereen could have a massive game — especially in full PPR formats. If the Giants get ahead, Jennings could have a big day. Hitting this correctly could be the key to GPP success for the week, but both guys are fairly priced and in play against the Saints. Everyone is going to be “priced up” a bit against the Saints for the foreseeable future.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham is going to be somewhere between 45 and 60 percent owned this week. There is simply nobody on this Saints defense that can slow him down, and it would not surprise me if he cracked 200 yards in this game. If you take him and he goes off, you are almost a lock to win your 50/50 contests (assuming he is around 50% owned). He is unlikely to kill your roster with a complete dud. Just play him in cash and don’t think twice. In GPPs, there really is a game theory angle to fading him, but I don’t want to be watching the game and hoping for a dud. That will be an excruciating three hours. It’s hard to see Beckham not finding the end zone here. If you are looking for a GPP zag, Sterling Shepard is much cheaper and also has a good chance for a nice day. It is the Saints, after all.
The Takeaway: Against the worst defense in the league, expect some points out of the Giants. Odell Beckham will be the highest owned player of the week at any position. Can you stomach a fade in GPPs? Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Sterling Shepard, and Eli Manning are also in play. Heck, even Larry Donnell might be an option against a team that was terrible against tight ends last season and hasn’t gotten any better overall.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
| Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 41.5 | 17.5 | -6.5 | 41.5 | 24 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 10.0 | 29 | 28 | 27 | Offense | 23.0 | 14 | 15 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 19 | 16 | Opp. Defense | 12.0 | 5 | 16 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 13 | 9 | 19 | 7 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 31 | 22 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Landry | 10 | 7 | 0 | 59 | Edelman | 7 | 7 | 0 | 66 | |
| Parker | Amendola | 4 | 3 | 0 | 48 | |||||
| Stills | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | Hogan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 60 | |
| Cameron | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | Gronkowski | |||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: Arian Foster (MIA RB) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Jordan Cameron (MIA TE) – Questionable (Thigh) / DeVante Parker (MIA WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Chris Hogan (NE WR) – Questionable (Shoulder) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable (Hamstring)
MIA Matchup Rating: 4.0
NE Matchup Rating: 6.5
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: The Dolphins had a golden opportunity to steal a road win in Seattle, but their offense left them just a bit short against a very good Seahawks defense. In what has to be the toughest schedule of the early season, Miami now has to fly all the way across the country to New England to take on the Patriots. New England is coming off a shocking road win over the Cardinals, and their defense is going to lead the way in the absence of Tom Brady. The Patriots ranked in the top ten in pass defense last year, and they have an above average secondary. This is not the spot to endorse Ryan Tannehill, even though he could be forced to the air plenty in this game.
Running Backs: Jay Ajayi was a surprise inactive in the backfield last week, and the snaps were dominated by Arian Foster. He played on 87% of the offensive snaps and is going to be a fantasy factor as long as he stays healthy. Though he had just 38 rushing yards against the Seahawks, Foster led the team in receiving with three grabs for 62 yards. As long as he is dominating the touches, he is worth a look as a mid-range running back. With Miami only projected to score 17 points in this game, it isn’t a “must play” spot, though.
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry is going to be a super safe pick in PPR fantasy formats all year long. He’s not a big playmaker, but he caught seven passes on ten targets against Seattle. Though he only parlayed that into 59 receiving yards, he was clearly Tannehill’s favorite target. The other wide receivers and tight end Jordan Cameron only had 12 targets combined. Don’t bother with DeVante Parker (if he returns), Kenny Stills, or Cameron, as they are clearly behind Landry in the pecking order. Landry is a decent cash game option based on volume, but he lacks monster upside for GPPs.
The Takeaway: My Miami exposure will be limited to some DraftKings exposure to Arian Foster and Jarvis Landry, where the two get a boost in a full-PPR setting. They are reasonable mid-range plays for cash games, but Miami’s limited projection this week takes most of their players out of consideration in GPP contests.
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The internet is a crazy resource. Of course, after Jimmy Garoppolo had ONE good game as a starting quarterback, the world was saying he might supplant Tom Brady as the starting quarterback in New England. Let’s not worry about Brady being one of the best quarterbacks of all time — this is Garoppolo’s team now! (Sarcasm meter). This is no cupcake matchup against a Miami defense that may be better than everyone expected this year. I still expect the Patriots to allow Garoppolo to manage games. He won’t be throwing for 300 yards every week. He isn’t a horrendous play, but I won’t be overpaying for him this week.
Running Backs: As has been the case for many years, it comes down to game flow with the New England running backs. They got out to a solid lead against the Cardinals, so LaGarrette Blount was tasked with carrying the ball 20+ times. If there happens to be a game where the Patriots fall behind, James White will get more work. Blount and White are both more affordable on DraftKings, while they are priced quite a bit higher on FanDuel. If I had to choose one this week, I would opt for Blount again in the assumption that New England will be playing with a lead as a six point home favorite.
Pass Catchers: A lot of the discussion depends on whether or not Rob Gronkowski plays. If he goes, he is obviously in play for GPPs. He would be a risky cash game start unless we get news that he is close to 100% and will not have any restrictions. Assuming he sits, there isn’t a clear beneficiary. Nobody got more than seven targets last week, though Julian Edelman caught all seven balls that were thrown his way. Edelman is a decent cash game target if Gronkowski is out, though I won’t get too excited here, either.
The Takeaway: I am not enamored with the Patriots in this spot. While I do expect them to win somewhat comfortably, the production is often too spread out for my liking. Jimmy Garoppolo seems like a bit of a trap, running back usage depends on game flow, and the passing game is unsettled as long as Rob Gronkowski status is unknown.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
| Kansas City Chiefs | Houston Texans | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 43.5 | 20.5 | -2.5 | 43.5 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 33.0 | 6 | 4 | 20 | Offense | 23.0 | 14 | 20 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 14.0 | 7 | 11 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 22 | 15 | 30 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Houston Texans | 6 | 10 | 4 | 22 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4 | 3 | 20 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 7 | 5 | 1 | 63 | Hopkins | 8 | 5 | 1 | 54 | |
| Wilson | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | Strong | |||||
| Conley | 7 | 4 | 0 | 43 | Shorts | |||||
| Kelce | 7 | 6 | 0 | 74 | Fiedorowicz | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jamaal Charles (KC RB) – Doubtful (Knee)
KC Matchup Rating: 4.0
HOU Matchup Rating: 4.5
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Chiefs had an incredible come-from-behind victory over the Chargers in their opener, winning on a shocker-of-all-things read option play from Alex Smith. Alex Smith! Alex Smith is the classic case of a real life quarterback that is better than a fantasy quarterback. He is often a game manager, but he has shown an improved ability to make plays when required. Things will be much tougher this week on the road against J.J. Watt and the swarming Texans defense. I’ll give a hard pass to Smith in this one.
Running Backs: Spencer Ware was one of the most popular value plays of the first week, and he paid off his owners handsomely. Despite some concerns over how much he would be involved in the passing game, he was actually much more effective in that department than any other Kansas City player. His final line included seven catches for 129 yards to go along with 11 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown, while Charcandrick West had just three carries for a loss of one yard. Ware is clearly ahead of West in the pecking order. Jamaal Charles is not going to play this week, which gives Ware at least one more week as the unquestioned lead dog. He is no longer a value play, and this is a difficult matchup, but he’s in play based on his effectiveness last week and clear role with Charles out.
Pass Catchers: Despite Alex Smith lack of volume, there is good news. Jeremy Maclin is the undisputed top target at wide receiver, and Travis Kelce is the secondary option at tight end. Nobody else outside of the running backs is even worth considering, especially in a difficult matchup. Those two pass catchers are always in play for cash games, but I will definitely look elsewhere in GPPs with the Texans on the docket.
The Takeaway: I don’t have too much interest in the Chiefs, as they draw a much tougher matchup this week. Spencer Ware, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce are in play based on their clear roles and volume, but they certainly aren’t must plays. This is especially true of Ware, whose price tag has risen as much as any other player from Week 1 to Week 2.
Houston Texans
Quarterback: It was a bit of a lumpy start for Brock Osweiler, but he ended up having a solid game against the Bears with 231 yards passing and a pair of touchdowns. The Chiefs have a solid all-around defense that ranked in the top ten against the pass last year, so I am not overly interested in Osweiler in this game. This game has a projected total in the low-40’s, and it projects to be one of the bigger defensive battles of the week.
Running Backs: As long as he stays healthy, it would not surprise me if Lamar Miller led the NFL in total touches this season. He was always effective on a per-touch basis in Miami, but he never got this kind of workload. Bill O’Brien does not shy away from using a workhorse, and Miller got 28 carries against the Bears. He also chipped in with four catches on four targets. Despite a tough matchup, he is a fine volume-based target this week. The Chargers did have some success running the ball against Kansas City last week, as Melvin Gordon scored a pair of first half touchdowns. Miller will likely get overlooked in this matchup, too. He’s the most attractive fantasy target in this game for me.
Pass Catchers: DeAndre Hopkins is a budding star, and rookie Will Fuller stole the spotlight in the first game. He caught five (of 11) targets and racked up 107 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Bears. He is a big play threat that will often break one, especially if teams focus their coverage on Hopkins. This doesn’t seem like the best spot to pay for Hopkins’ safe floor. If I go anywhere, it will be for the risk/reward upside of Fuller in a GPP.
The Takeaway: Lamar Miller is a decent target based on volume alone, while Will Fuller big play upside is intriguing, too. Both guys are likely better suited for tournament play in a game that will likely feature a lot of defense.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
| Tennessee Titans | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 47 | 20.5 | -6 | 47 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.0 | 24 | 13 | 27 | Offense | 39.0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 35.0 | 29 | 31 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 25.0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 21 | 20 | 15 | 28 | Tennessee Titans | 28 | 5 | 21 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | Tate | 7 | 7 | 0 | 41 | |
| Sharpe | 11 | 7 | 0 | 76 | Jones | 10 | 4 | 0 | 85 | |
| Wright | Boldin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 35 | |||||
| Walker | 5 | 3 | 0 | 42 | Ebron | 5 | 5 | 1 | 46 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kendall Wright (TEN WR) – Out (Hamstring)
TEN Matchup Rating: 8.0
DET Matchup Rating: 6.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: I love this spot for Marcus Mariota. He had an average performance in the opener against the Vikings, but he now draws a Detroit defense that is fresh off allowing 385 passing yards to Andrew Luck. They were a middle of the pack pass defense a year ago, and this is far from an imposing matchup. Mariota will be largely ignored in the mid range of quarterbacks this week, and he will likely be forced to the air a lot with the Titans checking in as six point underdogs. If you are looking for a sneaky quarterback that has big upside this week, especially for your GPP rosters, give Mariota a long look.
Running Backs: Derrick Henry got a lot of preseason buzz, but the Titans did not spend money on DeMarco Murray for nothing. Murray is a fine fit for this offensive system, and he played on 76% of the offensive snaps last week. He is also a capable pass catcher, as he hauled in 5-of-7 targets against the Vikings. His price tag is affordable in the mid range, and he is a decent option in this game. You could even pair him with Mariota as an under-owned QB/RB stack in hopes of a touchdown connection via the air.
Pass Catchers: This is where things get a little dicey. Tajae Sharpe was anointed (loosely) as the #1 wide receiver heading into last week, and he did see 11 targets in the game, finishing with a modest 7/76 line. He’s basically going to be a poor man’s Jarvis Landry. He will be a target machine that will likely not average much more than 10-12 yards per catch. Don’t expect more than five touchdowns or so over the course of the year. That safety has value, though, especially as long as he remains ridiculously cheap. Delanie Walker is the best bet in this receiving corps for a touchdown on a weekly basis, and he is also in play.
The Takeaway: I am sure that I am much higher on the Titans this week than the majority of the fantasy community. That is not usually the case, so it feels a little weird. Perhaps you should take this write-up of the Titans with a grain of salt. Mariota and Murray are fine GPP options, while Sharpe and Walker remain cash game viable at very affordable price points. I expect the Titans to move the ball effectively against Detroit.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford is more than capable of putting up very fantasy-friendly numbers, especially in games where his defense forces him to play catch up. Last week’s game with the Colts was back-and-forth the whole way, and Stafford put up a fantastic stat line. He completed 31-of-39 passes in the game while adding 340 yards and three touchdowns. Tennessee did boast a quietly good pass defense last year, but Stafford remains a bit too cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t love the matchup and think he might be a bit over-owned, but Stafford is a steady cash game option this week. I will likely look elsewhere in tournaments.
Running Backs: This looks like a pretty even timeshare between Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah, with Dwayne Washington vulturing a goal line carry here and there. It will generally be a frustrating group to target week in and week out, but you can bet that people will flock to Riddick after his big game against the Colts — especially since he remains pretty affordable on almost every site. This might be a risky fade, but I’m currently leaning toward taking that route. It’s been a long time since Detroit has had a fantasy-relevant running back, and I am not ready to go all in on Riddick after one week where he only played on 37% of the snaps.
Pass Catchers: Despite Stafford’s big day, all of the wide receivers underwhelmed in the opener. The three touchdown passes went to Riddick, Abdullah, and tight end Eric Ebron. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate will have their days, though. Jones caught just four of ten targets in the game, but he still led the team with 85 receiving yards. Tate caught all seven of his targets, but he only logged 41 yards receiving. He is more of a possession guy, with Jones possessing the big play ability. Expect both to play a bit better this week.
The Takeaway: Theo Riddick will likely be over-owned this week, and I am not sold on a guy with a history like his as long as he is playing less than 40% of the snaps. Matthew Stafford will be highly owned as well, but he is a safe cash game option these days. I am more interested in the wide receivers Tate and Jones, as they will likely go under-owned after disappointing many fantasy players last week. I expect this game to be a fairly high scoring, close contest, so there should be some fantasy goodness to go around on both sides.
