RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down: Week 2
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
| New York Jets | Buffalo Bills | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | 0 | 40.5 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.0 | 18 | 27 | 4 | Offense | 7.0 | 31 | 32 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 13.0 | 6 | 16 | 12 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 16 | 30 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Buffalo Bills | 19 | 15 | 25 | 5 | New York Jets | 9 | 2 | 18 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Marshall | 8 | 3 | 0 | 32 | Watkins | 6 | 4 | 0 | 43 | |
| Decker | 7 | 2 | 1 | 37 | Woods | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20 | |
| Enunwa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 54 | Goodwin | |||||
| Davis | Clay | 3 | 2 | 0 | 40 | |||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: Sammy Watkins (BUF WR) – Questionable but likely to play (foot)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.5
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fine real life quarterback, but he is rarely a fantasy option. A look at his stat line from Week One features no surprises: 19-for-35 with 189 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. You will see plenty of those type of lines from him all season, limiting his appeal in daily formats. He’s cheap, but I only like taking cheap quarterbacks in prime matchups. This isn’t a prime matchup against a decent Buffalo defense on the road. There are better options out there.
Running Backs: The original thought was that the Jets would use Matt Forte and Bilal Powell in some sort of even split, but that did not happen in the opener. Forte carried the ball 22 times for 96 yards and also caught five passes out of the backfield. His 29 combined carries plus targets far trumped the eight for Powell. As of now, it looks like Forte is the bellcow in New York. He is viable in this game, especially in full PPR formats, if he is going to get that kind of workload. Buffalo ranked just 16th against the run a year ago, though they allowed just 3.0 yards per carry in the opener against Baltimore.
Pass Catchers: Even though Fitzpatrick doesn’t have a lot of 350 yard games in his arm and the Jets don’t throw 40 times a game, his pass catchers are still fine fantasy targets. Most of the fantasy production falls to Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, though Quincy Enunwa managed to find the end zone last week. They surprisingly combined for just five catches in the opener, but they did see 15 total targets. Things should get better in this game, but they still don’t come cheap. I wish we got more of a discount and will probably pass in this spot. Decker is cheaper on both FD and DK and would likely be my preferred option if I had to pick.
The Takeaway: The Jets are projected for right around 20 points, which isn’t a total we need to get excited about. Matt Forte is the player I am the most interested in, and he is a fine target that gets added value in PPR formats, as long as he continues to dominate the snaps. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are in play, but I don’t see much value in their price tags. If Sammy Watkins sits out for the Bills, you can upgrade the Jets defense, too.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: A lot of smart people expected the Bills to win on the road in Baltimore last week, and all they did was put up their worst offensive performance in terms of yards since 2006. Sammy Watkins is clearly far less than 100%, and that directly affects the viability of Tyrod Taylor. Even though Watkins says he wants to play through his painful foot injury, he might be doing a disservice to the team in doing so. There simply aren’t a lot of weapons on the outside, and I would be absolutely terrified to roll Tyrod Taylor out there this week.
Running Backs: The best weapon the Bills have right now is LeSean McCoy, and they will likely use him extensively in this contest. Unfortunately for them, this is a difficult matchup against one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Jets held Cincinnati to 57 rushing yards a week ago, while Cincinnati moved the ball quite effectively through the air. It’s a bad matchup for this Buffalo team, especially if Watkins sits out. McCoy does still have some value as a volume rusher and a pass catcher, and I wouldn’t mind considering him for cash games based on volume alone. In GPPs, I’ll look elsewhere for upside, especially since these Thursday players tend to be over-owned.
Pass Catchers: Even if he goes, there’s no way I can depend on Sammy Watkins for fantasy points. There’s too much risk of an early exit. Robert Woods had just 20 receiving yards last week. It’s not a great situation, though Charles Clay might be a viable tight end option. C.J. Uzomah had a 54 yard grab last week and should have had another long gainer if not for an errant throw. I think the fantasy community is over-rating Darrelle Revis’ decline a bit — A.J. Green can make cornerbacks look bad often — but I will no longer be actively avoiding receivers against him. Unfortunately, Watkins is hurt.
The Takeaway: A lot of this depends on the healthy of Sammy Watkins. If Watkins is out, I’ll look to Charles Clay as a cheap tight end pick. If Watkins plays, I’ll avoid all the pass catchers. LeSean McCoy is a decent cash game play based on his projected volume, but his upside is somewhat capped for GPPs. Don’t bother with Tyrod Taylor right now.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
| San Francisco Niners | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 45.5 | 16.25 | -13 | 45.5 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | Offense | 20.0 | 21 | 25 | 2 | |||||
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 4 | 27 | Opp. Defense | |||||
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 13 | 14 | 11 | San Francisco Niners | 15 | 32 | 17 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Smith | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | Benjamin | 12 | 6 | 1 | 91 | |
| Patton | 5 | 5 | 0 | 60 | Ginn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Ellington | Funchess | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |||||
| McDonald | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | Olsen | 9 | 7 | 0 | 73 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jonathan Stewart (CAR RB) – Questionable (Ankle) but fully expected to play
SF Matchup Rating: 2.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.0
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Well, that was an interesting Monday Night game, wasn’t it? The 49ers manhandled the Rams 28-0, though it wasn’t really a function of Blaine Gabbert dominance. He threw for just 170 yards in the game, though he did add 43 yards on the ground. If you think lightning is going to strike twice, this time in a road game in Carolina against one of the best teams in football, I have some beach-front property in California for you to take a look at. It will be a snap back to reality for this San Francisco offense.
Running Backs: The one true weapon the 49ers have is at running back, where Carlos Hyde ran the ball 23 times for 88 yards and a pair of scores against the Rams. The bad news is that Shaun Draughn was mixed in for seven carries and logged a touchdown of his own, and Draughn is generally regarded as the passing down back. If the 49ers fall behind in a game, you could see Draughn log almost as many snaps as Hyde. Due to the difficult nature of this matchup, I will pass on the San Francisco backfield.
Pass Catchers: Jeremy Kerley was efficient with a 7/61 line last week, as was Quinton Patton with a 5/60 performance. Those two safety valves will be primary targets for Gabbert, as deep threat Torrey Smith is in a black hole with Gabbert at the helm. Kerley and Patton are still mega cheap on almost every site since pricing was released prior to Monday’s game. The Panthers will be able to be attacked in the secondary a bit this season, and San Francisco will be playing catch up in this game. If you need a punt value play, you could do worse than one of those two. I won’t be boarding the Vance McDonald train with so many other options available for value at tight end.
The Takeaway: Say no to Gabbert and Hyde this week, and Torrey Smith might not catch more than four passes in a game all season. Jeremy Kerley and Quinton Patton are the only viable targets for San Francisco, as they should see plenty of passes come their way and both are basically minimum salary on most DFS sites.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton wasn’t at his best in the opener, but he showed off his immense fantasy floor in the game. Despite going just 18-for-33 through the air and throwing for just 194 yards, he managed one touchdown pass while also rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown. That could very well be his worst game of the season, and he still inched his way over 20 fantasy points. The impact of his rushing ability cannot be overstated. This is a difficult matchup against a 49ers defense that was surprisingly good in their opener, but a road game against Carolina is a far stiffer challenge than a home game against the laughable Rams. By all means, feel free to use Newton in this matchup if you wish.
Running Backs: Workload isn’t a concern for Jonathan Stewart, but getting vultured by Cam Newton is a concern. Stewart is the clear leader of this backfield, but he loses red zone work to his quarterback. This limits his upside unless everything breaks his way, because Stewart is not the type to be breaking off 40 yard touchdown runs. That said, this does project to be a game where the Panthers will be killing clock in the second half. I am decidely neutral on him this week.
Pass Catchers: Kelvin Benjamin will never be the most efficient receiver in the league. He has long struggled with drops, but it’s clear that Cam Newton loves throwing to him, and the talent is obvious. Just look at his touchdown catch from the opener. Benjamin saw 12 targets against Denver, while the rest of the wide receivers (Corey Brown, Devin Funchess, and Ted Ginn) combined for just seven targets. This was even with Benjamin on a loose “snap count.” He’s the only viable option besides reliable tight end Greg Olsen, and both are certainly in play here.
The Takeaway: My preferred looks would be Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin, and Greg Olsen (if you are spending up at tight end). If you subscribe to Carolina winning this game with ease — as Vegas does — you can give a long look to Jonathan Stewart in cash games. Carolina is a two touchdown favorite and should “get right” after struggling to a road loss against Denver.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.0 | 23 | 21 | 15 | Offense | 16.0 | 24 | 7 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 38.0 | 31 | 23 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 11 | 10 | 21 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Washington Redskins | 22 | 19 | 30 | 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 10 | 28 | 6 | 1 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | Jackson | 10 | 6 | 0 | 102 | |
| Williams | 4 | 3 | 0 | 34 | Garcon | 6 | 6 | 0 | 51 | |
| Beasley | 12 | 8 | 0 | 65 | Crowder | 10 | 6 | 0 | 58 | |
| Witten | 14 | 9 | 0 | 66 | Reed | 11 | 7 | 0 | 64 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tony Romo (DAL QB) – Out (Back) / Josh Doctson (WAS WR) – Questionable (Achilles)
DAL Matchup Rating: 8.5
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.0
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Dak Prescott was better last week than fantasy players would have you believe. He also wasn’t as “great” as some non-fantasy analysts would have you believe. He was efficient with the short routes to Cole Beasley and Jason Witten, and he was clearly more comfortable throwing those. He never got on the same page with Dez Bryant, which should remedy itself as Prescott gains experience. I expect a better performance in this one, and we will be able to get Prescott at a very low ownership as everyone over-reacts to last week’s box score dud.
Running Backs: There is some legitimate reason to be concerned about Ezekiel Elliott. He didn’t look great against New York, and Alfred Morris was in for more than a handful of snaps. Dallas also worked Lance Dunbar in for some passing downs. It’s a tough balance between over-reacting to the first game and re-evaluating pre-season expectations, but I am a little nervous about Elliott here. He is certainly in play for GPPs against a Washington defense that got abused by DeAngelo Williams, but he isn’t a cash game play this week.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown abused Breshaud Breeland on Monday, and whoever stays away from Josh Norman’s coverage is certainly in play. The problem is that we don’t know how Dallas or Washington will line up with absolute certainty. Cole Beasley seems like a safe bet to avoid Norman for the most part, and Witten obviously will too. Conveniently, those two were Prescott’s top targets last week. I will avoid Dez Bryant at his high price tag until we see some chemistry there, and Terrance Williams is a non-factor — especially since he might draw Norman an awful lot.
The Takeaway: Dak Prescott should put up a better line this week and is an interesting risk/reward QB play against a porous Washington defense that may not be as good as I thought they would be before the season started. Ezekiel Elliott is a GPP-only play with some upside, but he isn’t a cash game option as long as Alfred Morris continues to see plenty of snaps. In the receiving game, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten appear to be Prescott’s favorite targets. In addition, they will both avoid Josh Norman’s coverage for the most part, and they are both cheap almost everywhere you look.
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: In last week’s Grind Down, I mentioned that I expected Cousins to regress this year, though I didn’t expect that to happen over the first few weeks. Well, perhaps I was partly right and partly wrong, as Cousins was not good against a Steelers team that no longer possesses an elite defense. He did not throw for a touchdown and had two interceptions in the game, and his lofty yardage total was simply a result of the Redskins being in come-from-behind mode. Dallas has a sneaky good pass defense that ranked 5th in the league last year, and I am off Cousins for now.
Running Backs: We weren’t able to get much clarity on the Washington backfield, except to remove Rob Kelley from the mix. He did not receive a single touch against Pittsburgh. That leaves Matt Jones as the early down guy and Chris Thompson as the passing-down back. Thompson ran for a short touchdown last week, but he received just two targets in the passing game. Thompson did see 36 snaps compared to just 19 for Jones, but a lot of that was attributable to game flow. There’s too much risk to trust either guy here in a game that should stay close throughout. Avoid.
Pass Catchers: DeSean Jackson showed off his upside with a flashy 6/102 performance against Pittsburgh, and he is always squarely in play for GPPs because of his big play ability. Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon both played well, and they each saw 40+ snaps in the game. Garcon caught all six of his targets, while Crowder caught six of ten. Jordan Reed forced more missed tackles than any other tight end last week, but his final line was rather empty. He should still be a fine target in the coming weeks. The quantity of receiving options will make this a tough week-to-week situation, but someone should do well almost every week. It’s a matter of figuring out who that will be. Jackson is the GPP guy, while Crowder and Garcon are reasonable low-cost plays. I will probably avoid Reed this week and save money at tight end.
The Takeaway: I’m not a big believer in Cousins long-term, especially against a quietly good pass defense. The running back situation is still a mess. Your best angle is possibly a pass-catcher here, but there aren’t enough targets to go around for Jackson, Reed, Crowder, AND Garcon every week. Jackson is always a GPP play with plenty of upside, while the other two wideouts are decent values. This isn’t a spot I am getting overly excited about.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 48 | 22.25 | -3.5 | 48 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 14 | 3 | 29 | Offense | 38.0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.0 | 8 | 26 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 22.0 | 15 | 6 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 18 | 4 | 28 | 19 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 17 | 11 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Green | 13 | 12 | 1 | 180 | Brown | 11 | 8 | 2 | 126 | |
| LaFell | 4 | 4 | 0 | 91 | Wheaton | |||||
| Boyd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 24 | Coates | 3 | 2 | 0 | 56 | |
| Eifert | Green | |||||||||
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Out (Ankle) / Markus Wheaton (PIT WR) – Questionable (Shoulder)
CIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
PIT Matchup Rating: 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: These Bengals/Steelers games are known for being defensive slugfests, but we might see a bit of a shootout in this one. Neither team is as strong defensively as they used to be, and the Steelers are vulnerable through the air. They were 30th in pass yards allowed last year, and Kirk Cousins cracked the 300 mark against them last week (though, as mentioned above, a lot of that was attributable to game flow). Andy Dalton looked very good against the Jets in Week One, though he doesn’t have much for reliable targets outside of A.J. Green. I can see playing him as a low-owned GPP option, if you want to be sneaky here.
Running Backs: This remains a situational-based time share between Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Hill had a powerful touchdown run against the Jets, but he catches virtually no passes. Bernard is a viable commodity in games where the Bengals fall way behind. I don’t expect that to happen in this game, but Hill carries his own share of risk. Hill is priced out of my range on FanDuel, while Bernard doesn’t carry as much appeal there with the 1/2 PPR scoring. On DraftKings, however, both of them are very, very cheap. If you want a value RB or FLEX play over there, it’s certainly not the worst play in the world.
Pass Catchers: A.J. Green is going to be a target machine for this team for as long as Tyler Eifert is out. Brandon LaFell has always been inconsistent, and rookie slot man Tyler Boyd saw just three targets last week despite Andy Dalton attempting 30 passes. It’s Green or bust in this receiving corps, and he is a fine pairing with Andy Dalton in what could be a high-scoring game. Green is coming off a 12 catch, 180 yard performance against Darrelle Revis where he looked like the best wide receiver in the game, and he put up 11/118/1 and 6/132/1 in two regular season meetings against the Steelers last year. His line wasn’t great in the playoff game, but he had A.J. McCarron throwing to him and still managed a touchdown catch in that one.
The Takeaway: Play A.J. Green. Don’t play much of anyone else, though you could perhaps a look at Giovani Bernard or Jeremy Hill on DraftKings or Andy Dalton as a GPP option to pair with Green.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger is a good NFL quarterback, and he finds ways to get the ball to his playmaker in Antonio Brown. He threw for 300 yards in a game the Steelers had in hand by the early portions of the fourth quarter. The Bengals’ defense still has a reputation as an elite unit, but they ranked 20th against the pass last season and are clearly worse without Vontaze Burfict, who remains suspended. The Steelers have a 26 point team total this week, which is one of the highest on the slate. Roethlisberger is definitely in play if you want to spend up at QB.
Running Backs: DeAngelo Williams is going to get as much work as he can handle for as long as Le’Veon Bell remains out, and he saw a whopping 35 total carries plus targets last week (26 carries, 9 targets, 6 catches). He parlayed those touches into 171 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. Oh, and his price hasn’t adjusted yet because last week’s game was on Monday. At $7,600 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, expect Williams to be one of this week’s most highly owned players. If you play the game theory approach, perhaps fading him in GPPs is the right call.
Pass Catchers: We all know how good Antonio Brown is, so I don’t need to spend much time there. He has the safest weekly floor of any wide receiver in football given his role in this offense. The more interesting discussions revolve around rising slot man Eli Rogers and tight end Jesse James, who I believe played every single snap last week. The Bengals can be vulnerable to tight ends, making James my favorite value play at the tight end position this week. Rogers, like many of the others, remains cheap and will also be highly owned.
The Takeaway: Since this week’s prices were released before the Steelers played on Monday, we still have plenty of value here. Eli Rogers and Jesse James are fantastic value plays, while DeAngelo Williams remains about $1,000 under-priced. Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger are in play on the high end, as always. Almost everyone on this offense is in play.