NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Page Four
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
| Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | Sun Life Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 29.5 | 4 | 24 | 3 | Offense | 18.5 | 26 | 7 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 16.5 | 5 | 16 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 27.0 | 24 | 31 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 12 | 6 | 20 | 12 | Buffalo Bills | 29 | 9 | 28 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Watkins | 11 | 6 | 1 | 60 | Landry | 22 | 16 | 0 | 183 | |
| Harvin | 10 | 9 | 1 | 142 | Jennings | 8 | 3 | 0 | 29 | |
| Woods | 5 | 5 | 1 | 87 | Matthews | 13 | 10 | 1 | 149 | |
| Clay | 10 | 7 | 1 | 62 | Cameron | 11 | 7 | 0 | 135 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Lamar Miller (MIA, Ankle, Questionable), Jordan Cameron (MIA, Groin, Questionable)
BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,000, DK $5,800) is the quarterback Rex Ryan has always wanted, if you believe what Rex Ryan has to say. The mobile Virginia Tech product has been a true dual threat in his first two games as the Bills’ starter, rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown while throwing for 437 and four scores. He’s thrown a few interceptions but has otherwise been fairly efficient as a passer, keeping things short and simple and taking a few shots down the field from time to time. He doesn’t seem overly phased by pressure, as Pro Football Focus notes his completion percentage is over 70% with or without defenders pressuring him, and his yards per attempt actually go up when under duress. It’s a small sample size, but an encouraging note for a relatively new starter playing a road game against a team with a pretty good pass rush. He’ll be called upon to score points for the Bills in a game the Dolphins should win, so expect something in between his conservative Week 1 performance and his big numbers from Week 2. He’s playable in cash games against a Miami defense that has doesn’t allow many big games to opposing quarterbacks, but that does allow plenty of “usable” performances to the QB position, including last week’s 273-yard, two touchdown performance from Blake Bortles.
Running Game: LeSean McCoy (FD $7,500, DK $6,100) has the most carries and yards for the Bills, but hasn’t found the end zone despite five rushing attempts inside the opponent’s 20. He’ll eventually find his way to pay dirt, and that first score may come against Miami. The Dolphins aren’t a defense to be feared against the run, having allowed a big game to Alfred Morris to start the season, and McCoy is trending in the right direction to finally punch in a touchdown in this successful Bills rushing offense (most yards per attempt rushing in the NFL). He’s a secondary cash game option and a tournament target for this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Tyrod Taylor has been a fun quarterback to add to the mix this fantasy season, but his presence has altered the way we have to look at the Buffalo wideouts. Sammy Watkins (FD $6,800, DK $6,100) leads the team in targets thanks to a good workload last week, while Percy Harvin (FD $5,600, DK $4,400) has seen a nice share of looks in the passing game as well, but both are relegated to tournaments thanks to the low overall volume in the passing game. LeSean McCoy has actually be one of the leading receivers, further boosting his potential this week, while Charles Clay (FD $4,900, DK $3,100) is in line for a revenge game, but against a Miami defense that is pretty good against tight ends. Jordan Reed did score against them in Week 1, but he averaged under 10 yards per reception. Last season, Rob Gronkowski was the only tight end to go for more than 58 yards against the Dolphins. Clay is not a great use of salary this weekend.
The Takeaway: The Bills should score some points as they try to keep up with the Dolphins in what should be a competitive game. This keeps Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy in play through all four quarters, and both are options (Taylor in cash, McCoy in all formats).
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: After keeping Andrew Luck at bay in Week 1, the Bills were torched by Tom Brady in Week 2. I’m not going to dismiss them as a “bad” pass defense because of one game, but I do think it’s possible to move the ball in the air against this team. With that said, Ryan Tannehill (FD $8,000, DK $6,700) is pretty expensive for a guy heading into a tough matchup, and I would rather get my exposure to this passing game through a pass catcher and not through the pass thrower.
Running Game: With Lamar Miller (FD $6,600, DK $5,200) battling injury, a tough matchup against a defense that has allowed backs to run for only 89 yards on the season gets even tougher for the Dolphins. If Miller goes, he’ll be even more limited than usual, and the entire Miami running game will be out of play. If Miller sits, Damien Williams (FD $5,700, DK $3,000) is an interesting punt play on DraftKings, but FanDuel has already bumped his price up high enough to make him no better than other viable value plays in other games (like Danny Woodhead, Devonta Freeman and Chris Johnson).
Pass Catchers: Jarvis Landry (FD $7,600, DK $6,400) will take on a Buffalo defense that allowed Julian Edelman to catch 11 passes a week ago, turning two into scores. Landry will see the coverage of Nickell Robey more often than not, who PFF has graded as one of the weak links on an otherwise pretty good Buffalo defense. So far this season, Robey has allowed nine of the 13 targets to head his way to end up as completions, and he’ll likely allow more of the same against the dependable Landry. The Miami wideout has at least five receptions in 11 straight games, and has seen nine or more targets in eight of those contests. Rishard Matthews (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) is a name to keep on your mind for a better matchup later this year, but he’s not in a position to succeed against the talented Stephon Gilmore or Ronald Darby on the outside. Jordan Cameron (FD $5,400, DK $3,800) will likely be owned by very few other gamers in tournaments, but will not have an easy matchup. If he plays, he’s a tournament dart at best.
The Takeaway: The Dolphins should win this game, but in a tough matchup for their offense, there’s not a ton of upside for a big day out of any player. Jarvis Landry remains a cash game option on PPR sites, but otherwise, I wouldn’t spend too much salary in such a sub-optimal matchup.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
| Chicago Bears | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 4:25 p.m. | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5 | 43.5 | 14.5 | -14.5 | 43.5 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.0 | 16 | 18 | 5 | Offense | 24.0 | 14 | 20 | 11 | |
| Opp. Defense | 30.5 | 29 | 21 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 39.5 | 32 | 2 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle Seahawks | 23 | 4 | 22 | Chicago Bears | 28 | 17 | 31 | 1 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 11 | 5 | 0 | 78 | Baldwin | 17 | 14 | 1 | 127 | |
| Royal | 13 | 8 | 0 | 49 | Kearse | 12 | 8 | 0 | 76 | |
| Wilson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 69 | Lockett | 6 | 6 | 0 | 51 | |
| Bennett | 13 | 9 | 1 | 103 | Graham | 10 | 7 | 1 | 62 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jay Cutler (CHI, Hamstring, Out), Alshon Jeffery (CHI, Hamstring, Out), Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Calf, Questionable/Game-Time Decision)
CHI Matchup Rating: 1.5
SEA Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Jimmy Clausen (FD $5,300, DK $5,000) will start for the Bears against a Seattle defense that did allow a decent game to Nick Foles to start the season, and then let Aaron Rodgers have a decent game in Week 2. But Clausen has over twice as many interceptions as he does touchdowns in his career, and is not going to have much luck against a Seattle defense that has allowed the fewest points to quarterbacks since the start of last season. Even if we believe they’ve taken a step back since last season, they’re still not going to allow Clausen to produce anything worthwhile.
Running Game: James Starks had a nice day on the ground against Seattle in Week 2, and Benny Cunningham had success as a receiver out of the backfield, which are both signs that could point to a surprisingly good day for Matt Forte (FD $8,400, DK $7,300). I’m not going to rule out the veteran running back, but his odds for success are low against a Seattle run defense that is still graded third by Pro Football Focus this season. I won’t be the one to roster a banged-up Matt Forte in this matchup, but I can’t blame you if you give him a shot in a tournament.
Pass Catchers: The Seahawks have been susceptible to tight ends in the past, and Martellus Bennett (FD $5,600, DK $4,600) will be the leading receiving option for the Bears this week. Kam Chancellor is unlikely to play his usual role in his first week back from a holdout, and it’s not like the Seahawks need to rush him back, so Bennett won’t have as tough of a matchup as his wideout compatriots. Avoid everyone else, even a potentially active, hobbled Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,500, DK $6,900).
The Takeaway: The Bears are projected for one of the lowest team totals you’ll see in the NFL. Avoid this offense entirely outside of qualifier or large-field GPP contests where you think a decent day from Forte or Bennett would set you apart from the pack.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Quarterbacks haven’t had to do much against the Bears so far this season, but in only 47 attempts, they’ve thrown for seven touchdowns in two games. Russell Wilson (FD $8,400, DK $7,000) is one of the best quarterbacks at getting a lot done in limited attempts when things are working as intended with the Seattle offense, and he’ll likely follow suit and post solid numbers quickly against this bad Bears defense. Chicago ranks last against the pass according to Football Outsiders DVOA and they’re nearly 20% worse than the next closest team. Wilson is in play in every format.
Running Game: If you’re not rostering Wilson, you’ll want to roster Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,700, DK $7,400). The Bears are better against the run than the pass over the last year, but game script will dictate plenty of carries for Lynch against a defense ill-equipped to actually stop him. He may not have a huge game, but 100 yards and a score seem likely.
Injury Update: Marshawn Lynch normally is limited in practice during the week, but this week it appears it is due to an actual injury concern. If he’s ruled out, Fred Jackson and Thomas Rawls become great value plays, but we may not know about his status until it’s too late. Proceed with caution.
Pass Catchers: Doug Baldwin (FD $6,000, DK $4,000) leads the way among Seattle pass catchers, with 17 targets (most on the team), 14 catches (easily most on the team), 127 yards and one of the team’s three receiving touchdowns. However, he only has one red zone target (which he converted into a touchdown), so his DraftKings role and price are more appealing than FanDuel. Jimmy Graham (FD $6,300, DK $5,800) and Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,400, DK $3,500) have seven of the 13 red zone targets thrown by Russell Wilson this year, and make for decent tournament plays as stacks with the quarterback.
The Takeaway: Seattle should win by a large margin in this one, and they’ll likely post very good offensive numbers before shutting things down and coasting to a win in the second half. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are preferred plays in any format, while Doug Baldwin is a great DraftKings wideout, and Graham and Kearse are FanDuel tournament options. The Seattle defense is a top option, not only based on expected points allowed, but because of the sacks and turnovers that can be expected, plus the special teams ability of the returners.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions
| Denver Broncos | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.0 | 11 | 26 | 29 | Offense | 22.0 | 19 | 11 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 29.5 | 28 | 22 | 28 | Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 8 | 1 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 21 | 28 | 17 | 25 | Denver Broncos | 1 | 16 | 1 | 16 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 25 | 15 | 0 | 176 | Johnson | 21 | 12 | 1 | 122 | |
| Sanders | 26 | 16 | 2 | 152 | Tate | 18 | 10 | 0 | 104 | |
| Latimer | Fuller | |||||||||
| Daniels | 7 | 5 | 0 | 24 | Ebron | 15 | 9 | 2 | 96 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: C.J. Anderson (DEN, Toe, Probable), Matthew Stafford (DET, Various injuries, Probable)
DEN Matchup Rating: 6.5
DET Matchup Rating: 2.5
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: The Lions were one of the toughest teams to pass against last year, grading out as tougher than average in pass rush and coverage according to PFF. But this year, they’ve got off to a slow start and are missing the disruptive presence of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the middle. This is good news for the immobile Peyton Manning (FD $8,200, DK $7,400), who should face less pressure than he did a week ago against the Chiefs. Manning managed 256 yards and three scores, albeit in less efficient fashion than usual, against Kansas City, and should be in for a similar day against Detroit. He’s not the cash game lock and tournament stack foundation he was a year ago, but he’s also priced as a low first tier, high second tier QB on the two major sites. That means he’s worthy of tournament consideration in a game the Broncos are expected to win by a field goal on the road.
Running Game: C.J. Anderson (FD $7,300, DK $6,200) reportedly insists his toe is fine, and he’s good to go for Week 3. He needs to hope the toe was what was holding him back, as he’s averaging only 2.3 yards per attempt this season, and has yet to find the end zone. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) has been the better back, but neither are likely to see a majority of the work against Detroit. The Lions were incredible against the run a year ago, and PFF grades them as fourth best so far this year. There’s nothing of value here.
Pass Catchers: Through two games, Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,400, DK $8,000) does not have a target in the red zone. If that continues to be the case as the season goes on, he’ll definitely take a back seat from a fantasy perspective to Emmanuel Sanders (FD $8,100, DK $7,600), who has been thrown to twice inside the opponent’s 20 this season. The team leader in red zone targets is Jordan Norwood (FD $4,500, DK $3,000), who is the clear-cut third receiver for this team. He doesn’t seen enough targets between the 20s to merit attention just yet, tho. Sanders is the preferred player to stack with Manning, while Thomas is a tournament pivot.
The Takeaway: The Lions are still pretty good against the run, but have taken a step back as a pass defending team. That means Peyton Manning and one of his top receivers should be on one of your tournament lineups this week.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Broncos have quickly become one of the NFL’s best defenses, providing a tough matchup for any team by nearly every measurement. The Chiefs were able to score twice on offense against the Broncos, both via the run, while the Ravens were held without a touchdown and limited to only 173 total yards in Week 1. Matthew Stafford (FD $7,400, DK $6,300) isn’t fully healthy and will stand in the pocket behind the fourth-worst offensive line in PFF’s pass-blocking grades. Avoid Stafford totally this week.
Running Game: Through two games, the top two backs for the Lions have carried the ball only 23 times, with a nearly even 13 to 10 split. Going against a top three run defense dating back to last season according to Football Outsiders, there’s no reason to roster Ameer Abdullah (FD $6,000, DK $4,500) or Joique Bell (FD $5,800, DK $4,200). Jamaal Charles did have a nice game against the Broncos last week, but neither Detroit back is on that level. They more closely resemble Justin Forsett, who struggled to 43 yards on 14 carries in Week 1.
Pass Catchers: The Broncos have the top cornerback tandem in the league in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, as the duo combine to shut down top wideouts for opposing teams on a weekly basis. Football Outsiders ranks Denver as the toughest matchup against opposing WR1 and WR2 since the start of last season. Calvin Johnson (FD $8,200, DK $7,900) and Golden Tate (FD $6,800, DK $5,700) are off my radar this weekend.
The Takeaway: The Lions face arguably the best defense in the NFL this week, and are underdogs in their home stadium with a beat-up starting quarterback. Fade this unit entirely.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
| Kansas City Chiefs | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Lambeau Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 49 | 21.25 | -6.5 | 49 | 27.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 25.5 | 9 | 25 | 12 | Offense | 29.0 | 5 | 23 | 9 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 9 | 7 | 31 | Opp. Defense | 25.5 | 19 | 24 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 20 | 17 | 6 | 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | 25 | 3 | 32 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 16 | 9 | 0 | 104 | Cobb | 16 | 13 | 1 | 154 | |
| Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0 | 25 | Adams | 13 | 9 | 0 | 92 | |
| Thomas | 6 | 3 | 0 | 31 | Jones | 7 | 5 | 3 | 80 | |
| Kelce | 11 | 10 | 2 | 164 | Rodgers | 7 | 6 | 1 | 61 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Lacy (GB, Ankle, Questionable), Davante Adams (GB, Ankle, Questionable)
KC Matchup Rating: 3.5
GB Matchup Rating: 7.0
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: The Packers held Jay Cutler in check in Week 1, but allowed Russell Wilson to score a healthy amount of fantasy points with his arm and legs in Week 2. Alex Smith (FD $6,500, DK $6,000) isn’t as good of a runner as Wilson, but he’s not that far off, and he’ll face a defense that struggles to defend running quarterbacks and isn’t exactly elite against passers either. He’s a sneaky tournament option in a game he’s expected to lose, but should see plenty of chances to throw as a result. He got off to a good start this year, and is priced well considering he’s only two weeks removed from 240 yards and three touchdowns on the road in Houston. I can’t fault him for a bad performance against a very good Denver defense.
Running Game: Two of the most difficult things to do in daily fantasy football involve Jamaal Charles (FD $8,700, DK $7,400). Trusting Charles and his relatively limited workload (he doesn’t see the 20+ carries some workhorse backs do, and he’ll have random games with very few touches, seemingly at random.), and fading Charles and his game-breaking potential. I don’t think he can be trusted in cash games this week, as the Packers are likely to have a big lead in this game and the Chiefs may abandon the run. But he’s a tournament option, as he’ll remain involved as a receiver, and when he does get opportunities to carry the ball, he’ll do so against a team that gave up a big day to Matt Forte in Week 1.
Pass Catchers: Travis Kelce (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) is the best pass catcher for Kansas City and is essentially a required handcuff on any Alex Smith tournament lineups. He isn’t seeing as many targets per game as he probably should, but he’s turning so many of his targets into productive catches so far this season that we can still trust him. Otherwise, it’s hard to like a receiver in this one, as Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,500, DK $6,000) has been quiet since his arrival in Kansas City, and he and Charles are the only other players besides Kelce who regularly get passes thrown their way.
The Takeaway: Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles are different kinds of tournament plays, while Travis Kelce is one of the better tight end options on a weekly basis. As big road underdogs, it’s tough to feel great about Kansas City, but there should be opportunities for fantasy points as they chase the game.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: The Chiefs allowed Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer to combine for 300 yards and two scores in Week 1, and then let Peyton Manning march down the field against them and score clutch touchdowns to steal away a victory. Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,100, DK $8,000) is the best quarterback on the planet right now, and will pick up where the previous three signal callers left off. The Chiefs were good against the pass a year ago, but with Sean Smith (their top cover corner) out, things just haven’t seemed the same. And even last season, when they seemed to be at their best, Jake Locker, Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson all went for over 20 FanDuel points against the Chiefs. Rodgers is matchup proof, anyway, but it’s clear that there are ways to navigate the Kansas City pass defense as long as quarterbacks avoid rushers breaking through the offensive line. Rodgers will do that this Monday night, and is the top option at quarterback.
Running Game: Eddie Lacy (FD $7,700, DK $7,200) is working his way back into consideration for Monday night’s game by getting involved in practice, but even if he does play, he’s going to be limited. If Lacy doesn’t play, James Starks (FD $6,500, DK $3,000) becomes a viable DraftKings punt thanks to his ability as a back in the passing game, and his volume as a runner, but his price is too high on FanDuel, and he loses a lot of appeal if Lacy gives it a go. Kansas City does a good job of limiting running backs in the passing game, anyways, so it’s probably best to focus on the passing game in this one unless Lacy has a miraculous recovery and seems close to 100% for Monday night. He’d then be a tournament option, but that’s looking unlikely.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $8,200, DK $7,300) is the best wide receiver the Packers have got, and when pass rushers come barreling at Aaron Rodgers, he’s going to look to his top wideout. He leads the team in targets so far this year despite dealing with a shoulder injury, and now that he’s one week healthier (and with an extra day to rest/rehab with a Monday night game), he’s in line for more production and more fantasy points. He’s the ideal stack with Rodgers, and a guy you’ll want exposure to this week. The red zone targets are split pretty evenly for this team, so a healthy Davante Adams (FD $6,400, DK $5,000) or James Jones (FD $5,700, DK $4,800) if Adams sits would both be tournament possibilities, and Ty Montgomery (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) would be worth a spot on a GPP roster if Adams sits as well. Richard Rodgers (FD $4,900, DK $2,500) doesn’t see enough targets to be any more than a very speculative punt at the tight end spot.
The Takeaway: Load up on the Green Bay passing attack against a defense that has given up plenty of fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season. Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb are your preferred stack, while any number of other pass catchers are in play depending on the health of Davante Adams.