NFL Grind Down: Week 4
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| Chicago Bears | Green Bay Packers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 45.5 | 19.25 | -7 | 45.5 | 26.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 15.7 | 28 | 24 | 8 | Offense | 22.3 | 15 | 2 | 29 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.3 | 17 | 7 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 20 | 19 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Green Bay Packers | 6 | 25 | 9 | 1 | Chicago Bears | 10 | 13 | 14 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wright | 14 | 10 | 0 | 103 | Nelson | 17 | 13 | 3 | 131 | |
| Thompson | 9 | 6 | 1 | 81 | Cobb | 22 | 15 | 0 | 145 | |
| Wheaton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Adams | 23 | 14 | 1 | 206 | |
| Miller | 18 | 11 | 0 | 98 | Bennett | 21 | 11 | 0 | 102 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.5
GB Matchup Rating: 8.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Mike Glennon threw for only 101 yards and attempted just 22 passes in Week 3. The wide receivers had a grand total of two targets. TWO! Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, and Benny Cunningham caught all 12 of their targets out of the backfield. Glennon was 3-for-10 for 28 yards when throwing to anyone other than a running back (and they won the game). It is only a matter of time before it becomes the Mitchell Trubisky show in Chicago. Glennon might have earned a longer leash because the team won the game last week, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is a low upside option and can safely be ignored in 100% of DFS game formats.
Running Backs: Tarik Cohen was the shiny new object for the first few weeks of the season, but Jordan Howard reminded us all just how good he can be with a 138 yard, two touchdown performance against the Steelers, which included a game winning touchdown scamper in overtime. He looked as healthy as he has all year in the win, and that’s a good sign for the coming weeks. The problem is that he is a negative in the passing game and will very much be game script dependent. Howard out-snapped Cohen 41 to 28 last week, but that was largely because the Bears were playing with a lead for much of the game. I don’t expect that to be the case this week, which would give an edge to Cohen. Both are GPP-only, game script dependent options. Don’t fall into a trap just because Howard had the big game a week ago.
Pass Catchers: If the blurb above regarding Mike Glennon wasn’t enough to scare you off the entirety of the Bears receiving corps, I’m not sure what else to say. I have never seen a game where a group of wide receivers saw just two targets as a whole. That is some next level of bad. Glennon appears fully comfortable checking down to his running backs on virtually every play, and that is not likely to change after he was 12-for-12 throwing to them a week ago. There could be a value play here with the likes of Deonte Thompson, Josh Bellamy, or Kendall Wright, but there is absolutely no reason to chance it on the full week slate. You could maybe do it on the Monday/Thursday two game slate if necessary, but that’s as far as I would go. The floor, obviously, is a rock bottom goose egg for all of them.
The Takeaway: The passing game is off limits, and the running game is entirely dependent on game flow. Give Howard and/or Cohen a look in GPPs based on how you think the game will play out. The Packers should be leading for much of the contest, which would give a theoretical edge to Cohen, but we saw the Packers fall behind at home against Cincinnati last week. There is risk/reward potential with both backs.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers has started slowly in a lot of Green Bay’s games so far, but he has finished each of them with 300+ passing yards. The last two have almost been out of necessity with Green Bay trailing by multiple scores in the second half. I wouldn’t expect a similar game flow this week, but that is not to say that Rodgers is a poor play. The Chicago defense has already been ravaged by injuries, the latest to starting safety Quintin Demps. Rodgers is not my top point-per-dollar play this week with the likely game flow and his high salary, but there is no reason to shy away from taking him if you have the funds to do so.
Running Backs: The Packers played lip service to reducing the snaps for Ty Montgomery last week, but I cautioned in this space not to believe it until you see it. Naturally, Montgomery still played on 65 snaps and has an 89% snap rate through three weeks. The workload will be there. Game flow has limited his rushing attempts over the last few games, but he is still making his presence felt in the passing game, as he is averaging six catches per contest. I wouldn’t be surprised if they did monitor his reps a little bit this week with the Thursday start, but Montgomery should still be in line for about 20 touches in a favorable game script. The Bears have a respectable run defense, but Montgomery is a very safe option for all formats here.
Pass Catchers: In what comes as somewhat of a surprise, Randall Cobb practiced in full on Tuesday and appears on track to return for this game on a short week after falling well short of playing in Week 3. His return will torpedo the fantasy value of Geronimo Allison, and those of you who used Allison on a Monday/Thursday slate in hopes of finding value might be stuck using one of the aforementioned Bears receivers (good luck with that). I am not going to trust Cobb in his first game back, and the players you want to target here remain Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. While Adams gets a ton of love from film watchers, his production simply hasn’t lived up to the massive hype. However, he is developing some nice week-to-week consistency, though it is clear that Rodgers still trusts Jordy Nelson more. Both are in play against the Bears. Martellus Bennett is having an awful start to his tenure in Green Bay and is very difficult to trust, especially with Cobb back. Lance Kendricks siphoned a goal line grab for a score last week.
The Takeaway: Green Bay is going to score some points in this game. That doesn’t seem to be in question. The bigger question is where they will come from. Scores via the pass will be more likely early in the game, with a possible run-focused approach if the Packers get a lead. Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery, and Jordy Nelson are fine plays, while Davante Adams is also a viable option. Martellus Bennett is tough to trust right now, as is Randall Cobb in his first game back.
| New Orleans Saints | Miami Dolphins | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.3 | 11 | 5 | 18 | Offense | 12.5 | 30 | 21 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.5 | 6 | 27 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 26.0 | 28 | 29 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Miami Dolphins | 13 | 6 | 16 | 25 | New Orleans Saints | 29 | 29 | 21 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Thomas | 26 | 17 | 1 | 221 | Parker | 19 | 12 | 1 | 161 | |
| Snead | Landry | 26 | 19 | 0 | 126 | |||||
| Ginn | 14 | 9 | 1 | 121 | Stills | 15 | 6 | 1 | 88 | |
| Fleener | 11 | 9 | 2 | 108 | Thomas | 8 | 6 | 0 | 42 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Willie Snead (NO WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Kenny Stills (MIA WR) – Questionable but likely to play (Hand) / Jay Ajayi (MIA RB) – Questionable but likely to play (Knee)
NO Matchup Rating: 7.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 6.5
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback: The Saints are coming off a surprise road win in Carolina, and now they travel across the pond to take on the scuffling Dolphins in London. The yardage total for Drew Brees was modest last week because the Saints got out to a nice lead, but he has been playing his usual solid football so far this year. He has six touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception in three games. Miami has only played two games because of the postponement in Week 1, so don’t be fooled by their overall stats. In fact, they have allowed a league worst 116.4 passer rating in their two games, and one of those games came against the Jets. While we can’t put much into a two game sample size, this clearly isn’t a matchup to fear. I don’t have a strong take on Brees, especially since he is on the road (or is he – I don’t know!), but I like him as a contrarian GPP option if he is going to get over-looked. He is also a very strong play if you happen to be playing a two game Thursday/Sunday AM slate, as this is another game that will be played over in Europe.
Running Backs: Last week’s snap data (Ingram – 29, Kamara – 17, Peterson – 14) show us that Ingram is still the de facto lead guy in New Orleans. That may change in games where New Orleans falls way behind, as those profile as games where Kamara could excel. This game should be close and competitive throughout, and I would expect Ingram to get the most carries. Miami was gashed by running backs a year ago, but they have been fairly stout up front so far. With three players involved here, none of them are anything more than dart throw GPP options.
Pass Catchers: Willie Snead returns from suspension this week, but it remains uncertain as to how much he will be involved right away. Brandon Coleman has played well in his absence, so this might turn into a mess. I am off all the receivers on this team not named Michael Thomas until we see how the snap distribution plays out. Given the Dolphins’ pass defense struggles to date, this could be a nice breakout spot for Thomas. He logged a solid 7/87/1 line last week on eight targets and could have had a bigger day if the game had been closer. With just a 42% snap rate through three games, the fantasy world continues to overvalue Coby Fleener. He is further off the radar with Snead back in the mix for targets.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Snead is questionable with a hamstring injury. This further upgrades Michael Thomas and might keep Coleman on the radar.
The Takeaway: Drew Brees and Michael Thomas are the strongest options here, and they are a fine GPP pairing if you want to take that route. The Dolphins have been very suspect with their pass defense so far this season. The three-headed running back situation is off limits for me, as are the other receivers until we see how things play out now that Willie Snead is back in the fold.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback: Adam Gase was not happy with the way the offense played last week, and that unhappiness was certainly justifiable. The Dolphins’ offense managed just one garbage time touchdown on the last play of regulation against the lowly Jets, and Jay Cutler looked a few steps slow in throwing for just 220 yards on the day. I don’t love the fact that a recently unretired quarterback now has to fly overseas to play, even though the game is against the lowly Saints. We saw a bad quarterback struggle against them last week, and you might see the same thing again here. I get it — it’s the Saints and their defense is poor, but it’s hard to make a real case for loving Cutler here.
Running Backs: This is a spot to keep an eye on as we head toward the weekend. Jay Ajayi did not practice on Wednesday because of a knee injury, and that injury saw him miss practice time last week. He was also awful against the Jets, though you could blame a lot of that on the offensive line. I would expect him (as of now) to play this week and get his usual workload, and this is a great bounce-back spot. Ajayi was also born in London to Nigerian parents in a very cool story, so you can play the narrative angle, too. Assuming we don’t see a setback on the injury front, Ajayi is a solid option in all formats. If Ajayi happens to be out, Damien Williams and Kenyan Drake would likely split carries, and neither is a super appealing option.
Pass Catchers: DeVante Parker was the only Miami skill player who seemed to show up against the Jets last week, and he fittingly caught the meaningless touchdown at the end of the day to help pad his line a little better. The Saints lack any sort of talent in the secondary, and all we heard through the preseason was how much Cutler loved throwing to Parker. The targets were distributed evenly last week, as Parker, Stills, and Landry all had either 10 or 11 targets, but Parker made the most of his. He is my preferred play in all formats this week, as his explosiveness should help him make a big play against an underwhelming defense. Landry is a reasonably safe option in PPR formats, while Stills is a boom/bust play for GPPs. The tight end position doesn’t hold much appeal, with Julius Thomas struggling to produce in Miami.
The Takeaway: The matchup is obviously good against a lowly Saints defense, but last week’s game is a cause for concern. Adam Gase has promised changes, which will likely come on the offensive line. I prefer to get exposure through Jay Ajayi (if he is healthy and ready to go) or the wide receivers. DeVante Parker is definitely the best option in the group, while Jarvis Landry can be considered in PPR formats, and Kenny Stills is a risk/reward GPP option.
| Buffalo Bills | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 48.5 | 20.5 | -7.5 | 48.5 | 28 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 16.7 | 25 | 31 | 12 | Offense | 29.0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.0 | 16 | 23 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 12.3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 14 | 28 | 15 | 8 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 11 | 8 | 0 | 152 | Jones | 26 | 16 | 0 | 265 | |
| Jones | 12 | 3 | 0 | 39 | Sanu | 21 | 15 | 1 | 160 | |
| Holmes | 7 | 5 | 2 | 25 | Gabriel | 13 | 10 | 1 | 129 | |
| Clay | 18 | 13 | 2 | 115 | Hooper | 6 | 5 | 1 | 144 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
BUF Matchup Rating: 4.5
ATL Matchup Rating: 8.0
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor does add another dimension to his play with his ability to run, but the converse of that is there really isn’t a ton of upside through the air. He has very little to throw to in the way of reliable wide receivers, and Taylor has yet to top 225 yards passing in a game this season. Despite the fact that the Bills should be trailing in this game, I don’t see a reason to rush out and throw Taylor onto your DFS rosters. There’s simply too much risk of his putting up a low score. I will look to other value or mid-range quarterback options.
Running Backs: This should be a fine matchup for LeSean McCoy against a Falcons team that has struggled with pass-catching running backs over the past few seasons. However, there are some reasons to be concerned. First off, McCoy has just 26 carries for 30 yards over the last two weeks. Teams are selling out to stop the run and are forcing Tyrod Taylor to try and make plays. Second, Mike Tolbert got a not insignificant 11 carries last week. That is a valid concern. McCoy is definitely the passing down guy, so he should get more snaps if the Bills fall behind, but McCoy also doesn’t come cheap in DFS. When we pay top dollar for a running back, we generally want them to be on the field for more than 70% of the total snaps. Because of the high price tag on McCoy, I prefer other options this week. I’ll hold off until we see him get it going on the ground.
Pass Catchers: This is like a mini version of the Bears, in that the Bills simply get very little production from their wide receiver group. LeSean McCoy and Charles Clay combined to catch 13 passes last week, while the wide receivers caught seven. There isn’t a reliable wide receiver in the bunch, and Desmond Trufant is lurking to take one side of the field away. Clay is a reasonable option on the cheap at tight end, but I will safely ignore everyone else.
The Takeaway: LeSean McCoy is the only real threat this offense has, and I don’t love the matchup for anyone outside of him. Even McCoy carries some risk with his uncertain workloads. The good news is that he should very much be involved in the passing game, and Atlanta has struggled with pass catching running backs in the past. In a decent matchup at home, I actually like the Falcons defense as a sneaky play here.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: The well oiled machine that is the Falcons offense has picked up the pace over the last two games, and they have been one of the few high-end offenses that hasn’t disappointed us in Weeks 2 and 3. While the production was there last week, Matt Ryan did throw a somewhat surprising three interceptions against the Lions, and now he has to face a Bills team that currently ranks third in the league in DVOA against the pass. While I am not a believer that the Buffalo defense is this legitimate, especially since Atlanta has a very healthy 28 point team total here, Ryan does command a hefty salary tag. I think he is in play if you want to spend up at the position, but I would lower expectations just slightly from what we are used to seeing.
Running Backs: The snap counts for the Falcons running backs has become very predictable, at least, with Devonta Freeman garnering about 60% of the snaps and Tevin Coleman logging the other 40%. Freeman out-snapped Coleman 41 to 28 last week, but the touch ratio was 24 to 9. While that is somewhat of a fluke, it shows how willing they are to put the ball in Freeman’s hands when he is on the field. Freeman is also ridiculously efficient with his touches, and he logged 138 scrimmage yards and a touchdown against the Lions last week. With the Falcons likely to be playing with a lead this week, Freeman is a solid play in all formats. It would be nice to see him on the field more, but he still gets the ball in his hands plenty.
Pass Catchers: It is a tough week to trust a lot of the top-end wide receivers, but there is nobody in this Buffalo secondary that can contain Julio Jones. I would expect to see plenty of double coverage, which could mean a few more targets for a guy like Mohamed Sanu or Taylor Gabriel. Sanu feels like a safe option this week despite his relatively low ceiling, while Gabriel brings the GPP upside. Both had touchdown grabs last week. Austin Hooper has been quiet since his big plays in Week 1, but he has some upside if you are looking to go cheap at tight end.
The Takeaway: I prefer to get exposure here via Devonta Freeman, as the Bills have been surprisingly stout against the pass so far this season. Of course, all the Atlanta skill players are in play, but I don’t think you have to try and force Matt Ryan or Julio Jones in there this week, though Jones has a fine individual matchup if he sees one-on-one coverage. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel are reasonable targets on the cheap.
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 41.5 | 22.25 | 3 | 41.5 | 19.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.3 | 16 | 15 | 29 | Offense | 17.0 | 23 | 32 | 4 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 16.7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 17 | 5 | 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 27 | 1 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 36 | 26 | 1 | 354 | Maclin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 95 | |
| Bryant | 18 | 7 | 1 | 135 | Wallace | 9 | 3 | 0 | 21 | |
| Rogers | 11 | 6 | 0 | 54 | Perriman | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| James | 17 | 12 | 2 | 87 | Watson | 12 | 11 | 1 | 103 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandon Williams (BAL DT) – Out (Foot)
PIT Matchup Rating: 4.0
BAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: The Ravens are generally a defense that we don’t want to pick on, and I’m not ready to throw in the towel on them after one poor week. This is still a unit that forced ten turnovers in the first two games, and a London trip was a tough task for a team that had not done it before (while Jacksonville has done it for several years now). The Ravens have average to above average talent throughout their defense, and Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr form a solid cornerback tandem. Baltimore still ranks 2nd in DVOA against the pass despite last week’s debacle, and I don’t see the merit in paying the premium for Ben Roethlisberger in this spot, especially since the Steelers are on the road.
Running Backs: Baltimore’s defense severely missed Brandon Williams clogging up the middle last week, and it showed in the results. Williams looks to be practicing in full this week, so that is a big downgrade for Le’Veon Bell. Now, Bell could still very much do his thing, and he finally found the end zone for the first time against the Bears. However, he was still held under 100 total yards on 21 touches, so there is some reason for concern at this point. Against a solid defense, I’ll probably leave Bell on the sidelines this week. This game has a low Vegas total of 42 points, so there’s no need to go nuts with exposure to this game on a full slate.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Brandon Williams has surprisingly been ruled out again this week, so upgrade Bell a good bit with this news.
Pass Catchers: Antonio Brown logged lines of 7/85/1 and 10/96/1 in two games against the Ravens a year ago. While those are fine numbers, they also aren’t GPP-winning kind of numbers. He also really struggled against the Ravens two years ago. I can’t endorse paying the premium this week, and if I go anywhere, it will be to a low-owned Martavis Bryant, who is relatively cheap and coming off a down game of his own. Again, you don’t need to force anyone here against a talented defense.
The Takeaway: In what could be the least exciting DFS game of the day, I can’t endorse paying up for any Steelers this week. They are likely to post serviceable numbers, but I don’t see GPP winning upside, and we need upside at their respective prices. Martavis Bryant is the only player on my radar, and I wouldn’t bother with him in cash games.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Joe Flacco was 8-for-18 for 28 passing yards and two interceptions in last week’s game over in London. That, my friends, is abysmal. Flacco is never a fantasy option, even in the best of matchups, and this profiles as a low scoring game. The Colin Kaepernick buzz is growing in Baltimore, and we can avoid Flacco in all formats.
Running Backs: The Baltimore backfield is shaping up to be a disaster moving forward. What once began as a committee between Javorius Allen and Terrance West now has a third member. Alex Collins was by far Baltimore’s most productive player against the Jaguars in London last week, taking nine carries for 82 yards on the day. Now, a good chunk of that came in garbage time, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into it, but this situation is clear as mud. Pass.
Pass Catchers: An ineffective Flacco means an ineffective receiving corps. Mike Wallace has been silent. Breshad Perriman can’t stay healthy. Jeremy Maclin isn’t the answer with Flacco at quarterback. Ben Watson has been the most consistent pass catcher, and I’m not chasing two weeks of production.
The Takeaway: All told, I might not play a Baltimore player the rest of the season, unless there is an injury to a running back or Danny Woodhead comes back healthy at some point. This is not a good offense, and they got exposed last week against the Jaguars. One first down in a half of football is going to sour people on you really quickly. The Ravens have a sub-20 point implied team total, and I don’t mind giving the Pittsburgh defense a look.