NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Three

by LeoTPP Last Updated 2015-10-09 15:00:28

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

Buffalo Bills						Tennessee Titans
Sunday – 1 p.m.						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	41.5	22				2.5	41.5	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.5	7	20	6		Offense	29.7	5	27	22
Opp. Defense	25.7	22	6	19		Opp. Defense	23.0	14	28	3
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Tennessee Titans	3	3	4	22		Buffalo Bills	30	8	30	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Watkins	13	7	1	99		Wright	20	13	2	226
Harvin	26	19	1	250		Douglas	16	6	1	47
Woods	15	12	1	158		Hunter	6	4	0	74
Clay	30	21	2	255		Walker	13	10	1	111

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: LeSean McCoy (BUF, Hamstring, Doubtful), Karlos Williams (BUF, Concussion, Doubtful), Sammy Watkins (BUF, Calf, Questionable)

BUF Matchup Rating: 5.0
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback: The folks in Las Vegas don’t expect a whole lot out of this game, as the Bills and their injury-plagued offense take on a Tennessee team that has been surprisingly stout on defense. Yet the Bills are still favored, and all of their injury issues only put more responsibility on the arms and legs of quarterback Tyrod Taylor (FD $7,500, DK $5,800). Last week’s 15.5 FanDuel point performance may look bad at first glance, but he had two scores (one rushing, one passing) called back due to penalties, and was facing a New York Giants defense that has some talent and has generally been surprisingly good this year. With that said, Taylor doesn’t need to do much to reach value, and is viable in all formats (but preferred in tournaments) against a team that despite solid numbers across the board, has allowed two touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks in every game this season, and that ranks last in the league against the run according to DVOA.

Running Game: With LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams both doubtful to play this week, the Bills are left with an incredible lack of depth at running back. Anthony Dixon (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) will be the top back on the depth chart, but he struggled mightily in his chances as a volume back last season with the Bills. In October and November of 2014, Dixon had four games with ten or more carries, and he averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per attempt in three of those four games. He has only seen 12 passing game targets since arriving in Buffalo, and is generally a short-yardage back with little upside. I don’t think he’s a cash game play due to his very low floor, but he is a GPP option as he’ll likely get all of the team’s rushing looks inside the five. Cierre Wood (DK $3,000) and Boom Herron will share the carries with Dixon, but don’t be surprised if Taylor is the team’s leading rusher on Sunday.

Pass Catchers: If Sammy Watkins (FD $6,400, DK $5,500) is out again this week, it’s hard to say no to Charles Clay (FD $5,700, DK $4,100) at the tight end position. He saw 13 targets last week as the team’s best option in the passing game, and had a touchdown reception called back due to a penalty. This week, he’ll face a Tennessee defense that has been solid against the pass so far this season, ranking second in Football Outsiders overall DVOA against opposing aerial attacks, but who rank dead last in DVOA allowed to tight ends. This is partially a sample size issue, as Austin Seferian-Jenkins torched the Titans in Week 2 for two scores, but dating back to last year, it’s certainly reasonable to expect a trip or two to the end zone for a talented tight end facing Tennessee. Travis Benjamin was able to get deep against the Titans in Week 2, and the Colts receivers had decent games against them in Week 3, but Percy Harvin (FD $5,400, DK $4,600) and Robert Woods (FD $5,200, DK $3,100) are just tournament options thanks to their limited volumes and low per-catch numbers. If Watkins plays, he becomes an interesting contrarian option that a lot of players will have forgotten about, but don’t go near this situation in cash games.

The Takeaway: The Bills will look to their versatile, talented quarterback to bail them out of injury issues against a defense that has done well through three games, but may be overachieving. Taylor is an option in any format, and Charles Clay is the best non-Gronk tight end on the week if Watkins is out, but otherwise, there are tournament fliers at best on the Buffalo offense.

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: The Titans have been surprisingly good through three weeks, blowing out the Buccaneers and competing with the Colts a year after being easily one of the worst teams in football. Their quarterback, Oregon rookie Marcus Mariota (FD $7,400, DK $6,000), has been incredibly efficient in his first three starts, as he’s tied for fourth among quarterbacks in points per dropback per Pro Football Focus, behind only Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. And that’s without any meaningful rushing statistics, something Mariota is more than capable of accomplishing. This week, however, he faces a tough test against a Buffalo defense that ranks seventh in DVOA against the pass and fifth in numberFire’s rankings. They have allowed touchdowns to every passer they’ve faced, allowing ten through four games, but they’ve also collected six interceptions, and rank 24th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed, a statistic compiled by Pro Football Reference which considers passing yards and sacks on a per-dropback basis to determine overall passing game efficiency. Still, the price for Mariota is low enough to target the Bills’ inability to keep opposing passing games out of the end zone, but this should be reserved for tournaments only.

Running Game: The Buffalo defense is likely better than fantasy points would suggest against the pass, but they are also seemingly worse against the run than box score stats would suggest. Football Outsiders and numberFire both suggest that the Bills are a bottom-ten defense against the run, but they’ve allowed the 26th-most points to the position so far this season. I could continue to assess the Buffalo run defense and consider whether or not they’re as bad or good as various statistics suggest, but against the Titans, I’m not sure any of that matters. According to Pro Football Focus’ ratings, the Titans have subpar players at three of their five offensive line positions, and also have a rotating cast of characters carrying the ball with no apparent rhyme or reason. Avoid this situation entirely.

Pass Catchers: If you’re opting for Mariota in tournaments, you’ll likely want to pair him with someone on the Tennessee offense. Kendall Wright (FD $5,900, DK $5,400) has seen the most targets so far, with a whopping 12 against the Colts in Week 3, and is the safest bet to see a few of Mariota’s passes. He’ll also line up in the slot more often than not, which keeps him away from star corner Stephon Gilmore and rising star Ronald Darby, and instead will match him up against the unspectacular Nickell Robey. Harry Douglas (FD $4,800, DK $3,000) has managed to turn 16 targets from an efficient quarterback into six catches for 53 yards, and is not on my radar, while youngster Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,000, DK $3,300) has the talent to be a star at receiver, but his role isn’t secure enough yet for fantasy purposes. Delanie Walker (FD $5,400, DK $3,800) at tight end is another strong option for fantasy purposes, although tight ends not named Gronkowski haven’t done much against Buffalo so far this year. Still, he had ten passes thrown his way against the Colts, and should remain involved in the offense now that he appears to be past an early-season injury. He’s an option in any format.

The Takeaway: Don’t try to figure out this running game, but feel free to throw in a couple of tournament lineups with Mariota and either Wright or Walker.

Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals						Detroit Lions
Sunday – 4:05 p.m.						Ford Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	44	23.25				2.5	44	20.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	37.0	2	6	11		Offense	16.5	29	16	32
Opp. Defense	24.0	18	25	17		Opp. Defense	18.3	6	5	16
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Detroit Lions	26	16	23	26		Arizona Cardinals	7	10	8	3
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	37	30	5	432		Johnson	45	27	1	255
Floyd	14	7	0	89		Tate	29	18	0	196
Brown	27	19	1	241		Fuller
Johnson	1	0	0	2		Ebron	23	15	2	179

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Andre Ellington (ARI, Knee, Probable), Eric Ebron (DET, Knee, Doubtful), Joique Bell (DET, Ankle, Doubtful)

ARI Matchup Rating: 7.0
DET Matchup Rating: 2.5

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: The Cardinals suffered their first setback of the season against the Rams last week, and it was also the first week without multiple touchdowns from Carson Palmer (FD $8,100, DK $6,600). The veteran passer still picked up over 350 yards and a touchdown, and will now face a much less intimidating defense. While the Rams (last week’s opponent) rank in the top ten in most pass defense categories, the Lions rank at the other end of the spectrum, allowing the 12th-most points to passers and ranking 24th against the pass according to DVOA. This is a good spot to catch fellow fantasy players looking elsewhere after a slightly disappointing outing from the Cardinals and capitalize on a team off to a very good start to the season.

Running Game: Andre Ellington (FD $5,900, DK $5,300) is expected to return to the lineup, but not expected to take over the starting role from the surprising Chris Johnson (FD $7,000, DK $4,400). However, he will dig into Johnson’s carries, and will relegate exciting rookie David Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $4,300) to an even smaller role than the one he already had. This is a bit of a messy situation, and the Lions have a decent defense against the run (14th in DVOA, 18th in fantasy points allowed). Chris Johnson is a tournament option for the road favorites, especially on DraftKings where he remains cheaper than Ellington, but there are less crowded backfields to target this weekend.

Pass Catchers: Michael Floyd (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) saw a season-high seven targets last week against the Rams, but that was still shy of Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,400, DK $6,800) and John Brown (FD $5,900, DK $5,100), who remain the top two receivers in this offense. David Johnson saw ten targets last week, which would have made him an interesting play if Ellington remained out. With uncertainty among the running backs, stick with Fitzgerald, Brown, and maybe the occasional share of Floyd against a defense that has allowed the eighth-most points to receivers this year, with a preference to Fitzgerald, who will have a pretty easy time getting open against sub-par slot corner Josh Wilson, who Pro Football Focus grade as a player in need of replacement.

The Takeaway: Andre Ellington returns to make this backfield a mess, but Chris Johnson is still affordable on some sites and should see the bulk of the rushing attempts. The passing game is the better spot to target this week, as Carson Palmer and any of his three top receivers make for potentially profitable tournament plays.

Detroit Lions

Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (FD $7,000, DK $5,400) finally kept the interception column empty last week, but he also kept the touchdown column empty in an ugly game against the Seahawks. He produced a decent fantasy score in Week 2 against the Vikings, but it took him 53 attempts that week to generate 286 yards. He’s hurting, which may excuse away his incredible lack of efficiency, but this is really what we have come to expect from a player once seen as a franchise quarterback. Stafford faces an Arizona defense this week that is very tough to throw against, and he’s not an option in any format.

Running Game: Ameer Abdullah (FD $6,100, DK $4,100) is likely to start again for the injured Joique Bell, but faces a top run defense as a home underdog. Theo Riddick (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) will get a few targets out of the backfield, and will do so against a defense that allowed Saints backs to post Julian Edelman numbers in Week 1 (Ingram and Robinson combined for 13 catches for 149 yards). Matt Forte added four receptions for 44 yards against the Arizona defense, indicating that Riddick may be one of the better options in the passing game for Stafford. Abdullah is not a wise option, but Riddick is a PPR tournament possibility.

Pass Catchers: The inefficiency of Matthew Stafford has taken all of the fun out of rostering Calvin Johnson (FD $8,100, DK $7,400). The star receiver used to be a weekly option alongside Brown, Thomas and Jones for those looking to spend up at receiver, but now he’s just churning out lines of 2/39, 10/83/1, 8/77, and 7/56 with a price that still accounts for his pedigree as a superstar pass catcher. And while Golden Tate (FD $6,600, DK $5,200) is priced more fairly, he’ll face a defense that has allowed among the fewest points to opposing wideouts this season, and he also suffers from the same inefficient quarterback situation as Megatron. Tim Wright (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) is likely to draw a start at tight end, but he’s not a security blanket for his QB like he was for Mike Glennon, nor is he in the high-powered New England offense like he was last year, so I will look for other cheap options at the position, or just pay up and not take a risk against an Arizona defense that seems to have figured out tight ends after struggling against them for a couple of years.

The Takeaway: The Cardinals are a tough matchup, and the Lions have a very frustrating offense for fantasy purposes. Theo Riddick is the only notable fantasy option on offer here.

New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

New England Patriots						Dallas Cowboys
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						AT&T Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-8.5	49.5	29				8.5	49.5	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	39.7	1	7	31		Offense	23.8	15	9	14
Opp. Defense	25.3	19	18	9		Opp. Defense	23.3	17	22	23
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Dallas Cowboys	10	30	12	6		New England Patriots	14	4	14	13
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Edelman	42	30	2	300		Williams	27	12	2	193
Amendola	10	8	1	95		Beasley	21	18	0	174
Dobson	12	9	0	101		Street	3	1	0	18
Gronkowski	28	16	4	308		Witten	31	25	2	238

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Tony Romo (DAL, Shoulder, Out), Dez Bryant (DAL, Foot, Out), Lance Dunbar (DAL, Knee, Out)

NE Matchup Rating: 9.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.5

New England Patriots

Quarterback: The team with the top matchup rating of the week should come as no surprise, as the Patriots return from a bye to continue their revenge tour around the NFL. This week they stop off in Dallas, who have allowed 26 or more points in three of their four games this season. Not that those sorts of statistics matter for Tom Brady (FD $8,800, DK $7,800), who has started the season with multiple touchdown passes and at least 300 yards in every game. The Cowboys have faced two top-tier quarterbacks in their last two outings, and Matt Ryan and Drew Brees combined for well over 600 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in a pair of losses for Dallas. Expect more of the same for Brady against a subpar pass defense, which means fire Brady up in all formats, but expect him to be highly owned in large field contests.

Running Game: The Patriots rewarded Dion Lewis (FD $6,900, DK $4,800) with a contract extension following his strong start to the season. Many people saw Lewis as a possible Danny Woodhead or Shane Vereen type of player for the Patriots, but it turns out he’s an every-down back that the Patriots will run between the tackles as well as throw to in the passing game. He was given a breather against the Jaguars in a blowout win in Week 3, and the whole team had a bye last week, so he’ll be ready to beat up on a run defense that has allowed the third-most points to opposing backs this season. Lewis is also in play in any format, provided you haven’t started your lineup with Brady under center. LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,200, DK $4,500) may seem tempting, but his role as the “closer” relies on the Patriots getting stops on defense and making this game ugly in a hurry, and that’s not something I want to bank on for a player with a salary that far above the minimum.

Pass Catchers: Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $7,500), Julian Edelman (FD $7,700, DK $7,000). Of the 132 targets Patriots players have seen this season, those two have 70, and no other receiver or tight end has more than 12. The duo have combined for 13 red zone targets, as well, and are really the only options to pair with Brady if you’re looking to stack. Gronkowski is always a smart cash game play at tight end, as his floor and ceiling exceed all others at the position, while Edelman is a PPR goldmine and should receive double-digit targets en route to a productive day catching the ball, with touchdown upside.

The Takeaway: There’s no reason to not get exposure to the Patriots in cash games, whether that’s through Lewis or the passing game. In tournaments, it may be worthwhile to fade this popular team and hope they get out to an early lead and take their foot off the gas, but even still, you may need Brady and/or Gronkowski to build the optimal lineup this week. The defense is in play as well, as the Patriots are big favorites, and can create sacks and turnovers against Brandon Weeden and the Dallas offense.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback: The Patriots have given up a healthy amount of fantasy points to opposing passing games this season, with a majority coming from Tyrod Taylor in Week 2. There may be no two quarterbacks who are more different than Taylor and Brandon Weeden (FD $6,400, DK $5,100). The Dallas quarterback has not been asked to do much since taking over the starting role from Tony Romo, throwing only 26 passes in each of his first two starts. He’s been relatively accurate, and has avoided turnovers, but those are two elements of his game that he hasn’t shown previously in his career, and we can expect both to regress starting this week. He’s not an option in daily fantasy football.

Running Game: Last week against the Saints, Dallas split carries nearly evenly between Joseph Randle (FD $7,400, DK $6,000) and Darren McFadden (FD $6,000, DK $3,400). Lance Dunbar was a somewhat interesting option out of the backfield for Dallas, but with his unfortunate injury, there’s nothing to like at running back here. The Patriots are going to get out to a lead, and Dallas is going to have to throw to keep up. Don’t waste your salary here.

Pass Catchers: While Brandon Weeden may not be under consideration, and the running game is in a bad spot, you can still consider the Dallas passing game options. Terrance Williams (FD $5,900, DK $4,300), Jason Witten (FD $5,700, DK $4,500) and Cole Beasley (FD $5,200, DK $3,100) were the only players to receive more than one target against New Orleans, and are the only healthy players on the team with more than six targets this season. They’ll all chip in to take some of the injured Dunbar’s opportunities in the passing game, as well, and all three are viable in PPR formats, but lack touchdown potential in a tough matchup.

The Takeaway: The Cowboys are going to get blown out in this one, but there may be some value among their pass catchers.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Denver Broncos						Oakland Raiders
Sunday – 4:25 p.m.						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4.5	43.5	24				4.5	43.5	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.3	11	23	28		Offense	24.3	11	13	21
Opp. Defense	27.0	26	31	11		Opp. Defense	17.3	2	7	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Oakland Raiders	29	18	12	32		Denver Broncos	1	20	2	9
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	50	33	1	361		Crabtree	39	23	1	264
Sanders	41	25	2	307		Cooper	40	24	0	339
Norwood	13	8	0	66		Streater	1	1	0	8
Daniels	21	12	2	61		Rivera	11	6	0	31

The Quick Grind

Notable injuries and suspensions: Demaryius Thomas (DEN, Neck, Probable), Latavius Murray (OAK, Shoulder, Questionable), Michael Crabtree (OAK, Ankle, Questionable)

DEN Matchup Rating: 6.0
OAK Matchup Rating: 2.5

Denver Broncos

Quarterback: The Raiders got off to a surprising 2-1 start this year, but it wasn’t thanks to their defense, especially not against the pass. The Raiders rank 26th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders, and have multiple corners graded as well below average by Pro Football Focus’ ratings. Peyton Manning (FD $8,200, DK $7,000) is definitely not the same all-time great we remember from even a year ago at this time, but he’s still more than capable of picking apart a bad defense (as he did in Week 2 against Kansas City), and he’ll likely do more of the same this week. The pass rush for Oakland is concerning, as the immobile Manning will likely get hit a few more times than he’d like, but at least two touchdowns for Peyton en route to a Denver victory seems like a virtual lock. He’s an option for any sort of daily fantasy contest.

Running Game: Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,600, DK $4,900) and C.J. Anderson (FD $6,600, DK $5,300) split carries evenly against the Vikings, and while Anderson continued to stumble along in a disappointing season many thought would be a breakout campaign for the Cal product, Hillman broke off a big run and found the end zone on his way to a 100-yard game. Hillman is, by all accounts, the better football player at this point in time, and he’ll likely have more touches than Anderson this week. Will it be enough to justify a roster spot against a defense that hasn’t been notably great or terrible against runners this year, and ranks in the top-ten against the ground game in DVOA? That’s the question that will lead to a tournament success or failure this week. I lean toward “yes,” and will have a few shares of Hillman in GPP lineups.

Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,600, DK $8,100) is dealing with an injury that may limit him in practice this week, but he should be fine for the game. That means he and Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,700, DK $7,400) are top options against a porous pass defense. The Raiders are also notably bad against tight ends, often leaving them totally uncovered, and allowing the most fantasy points to the position so far this season. Owen Daniels (FD $4,900, DK $2,700) becomes the top value play at the position, as he’s scored in two straight games, and has 19 targets over his last three games.

The Takeaway: Any of the Denver passing game players are options in this one, as well as Ronnie Hillman. There are likely going to be those who target the Denver defense, but Derek Carr and the Oakland offense haven’t been all that turnover prone, nor does the Oakland signal caller get sacked very often. They’re not a bad play, but the upside is limited.

Oakland Raiders

Quarterback: Derek Carr (FD $6,700, DK $5,500) has scored multiple touchdowns in each of his healthy starts this season, and has completed over 60% of his passes while avoiding interceptions. He’s clearly taken a step forward, but a matchup with the league’s best defense is still a bit above his head. The Broncos have the top DVOA defense and have allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, having yet to allow more than one touchdown to an opposing passer in a game. Avoid Carr entirely.

Running Game: Latavius Murray (FD $7,000, DK $6,300) was hurt during last week’s game, but returned, only to fumble and return to the bench. He’s the most talented back the Raiders have, and he’ll get his job back this week, but if he’s not fully healthy, I’m not sure he’s worth the risk against a top-ten run defense per Football Outsiders and numberFire. Plus, Oakland is likely going to have to abandon the pass, and while Murray stays involved in the passing game, there are much better places to invest your running back funds this week.

Pass Catchers: The Broncos have elite corners and a fierce pass rush. Keep Oakland receivers and tight ends out of your lineups this weekend.

The Takeaway: The Broncos will likely cruise to a victory here, and if they don’t, it’s more likely to be because of the Oakland defense performing well rather than a surprising showing from an offense facing a proven elite defensive unit. Avoid Oakland in daily fantasy football in Week 5.

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