NHL Grind Down: Monday, February 20th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues
| Florida Panthers | St. Louis Blues | ||||||||
 | James Reimer |  | Jake Allen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 27-20-10 | 31-23-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.53 | 2.74 | 15.00% | 85.00% | Team Stats | 2.85 | 2.88 | 21.60% | 84.60% |
Florida picked up two very important points in Los Angeles on Saturday night and will look to put the finishing touches on what has been a very successful extended road trip. Tom Rowe’s squad is finally getting back to full health and it’s been easily noticed by their results as they’ve win seven of their last eight games to climb right back into the thick of the playoff race. With elite offensive weapons Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov finally back in the mix, the Panthers now sport three very capable scoring lines. Barkov and Huberdeau both join the ageless Jaromir Jagr both on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and those three will draw plenty of attention from Mike Yeo behind the Blues bench. This likely means they’ll see plenty of Alexander Steen pestering defense, but with a combined 11 goals and 10 assists in six games this month, they’re just too hot to ignore on a two-game slate. Alternatively, Vincent Trocheck actually leads the team with 41 points in 57 games and teams up with Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith on the second line with all three also seeing plenty of run on the man-advantage. On defense, both Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad see as many minutes they can handle while also soaking up nearly all of the available playing time on the point of the Florida power-play. St. Louis’ very strong 84.6% penalty kill is a slight buzz-kill, but they’re both still fine targets considering the limited options. This game will likely be played at a rather slow pace and St. Louis does own a spectacular 2.18 xGA60 this season, so just keep your expectations in check.
Much like their opponents this evening, the St. Louis Blues have overcome a mid-season coaching change and look to just now be hitting their stride. They did lose a 3-2 decision in Buffalo over the weekend, but they had won six straight games prior and own a solid 18-9-4 record at the Scottrade Center. Offensively, the St. Louis offense runs very heavily through Vladimir Tarasenko. The Russian sniper leads the team with 56 points in 59 games and is slated to be joined by Alexander Steen and Jori Lehtera on the top forward line. Meanwhile, Patrick Berglund will center Jaden Schwartz and David Perron on their dangerous second forward line and Berglund has really benefited from playing with such skilled line-mates as he’s scored six goals in nine games since the All-Star break. If you’re looking to be a bit contrarian (yeah, it’s hard to do on a two-game slate) then give rookies Kenny Agostino and Ivan Barbashev a look as well. They’ve both been highly productive on their treks to the big-leagues, and have flashed plenty of offensive upside thus far. On defense, it’s pretty much the exact same story every time St. Louis takes the ice they have three very fine offensive contributors on their blue-line. Kevin Shattenkirk is often the most offensively minded of the three, but both Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko rack up fantasy points in just about every possible manner. The Panthers also own one of the NHL’s best penalty kills, which does limit the upside of all three blue-liners to some degree.
Florida Panthers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 50.69 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -14, 109.87 CP60
Elite Options
Jonathan Huberdeau ($6 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.97 CF60, 2.16 xGF60, 109.76 PDO
Secondary Options
Vincent Trocheck ($57 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.5 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 98.85 PDO
Jaromir Jagr ($57 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.5 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 102.18 PDO
Aaron Ekblad ($57 FD, $4,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.88 CF60, 2.36 xGF60, 97.31 PDO
Keith Yandle ($57 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.7 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 100.03 PDO
Expected Netminder
Roberto Luongo – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7 GPP
St. Louis Blues
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.03 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -1, 103.4 CP60
Elite Options
Vladimir Tarasenko ($59 FD, $7,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.71 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 101.53 PDO
Alex Steen ($53 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 46.84 CF60, 2.01 xGF60, 100.83 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk ($59 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.46 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 99.51 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrik Berglund ($59 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.29 CF60, 2.28 xGF60, 96.59 PDO
Jaden Schwartz ($55 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.34 CF60, 2.4 xGF60, 102.37 PDO
Alex Pietrangelo ($58 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.72 CF60, 2.27 xGF60, 100.64 PDO
Colton Parayko ($59 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.76 CF60, 2.13 xGF60, 100.31 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jake Allen – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP
Anaheim Ducks at Arizona Coyotes
| Anaheim Ducks | Arizona Coyotes | ||||||||
 | John Gibson |  | Mike Smith | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 31-19-10 | 20-30-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.56 | 2.53 | 20.00% | 84.00% | Team Stats | 2.32 | 3.16 | 15.90% | 76.80% |
It’s a two-game slate and the Ducks draw the Arizona Coyotes. I don’t care that Anaheim is on the second-half of a back-to-back and have actually been playing rather well lately, they still own an NHL worst 45.71 CF% and 2.95 xGA60; the Ducks will be popular tonight for good reason. They are fresh off of an important 1-0 shutout victory over the cross-town Los Angeles Kings and have defeated the Coyotes in all three prior meetings this season. Up-front, Randy Carlyle has been tinkering with his forward lines down the stretch and its made life a bit tougher for daily fantasy players as he’s spread his best offensive weapons across the top three forward lines. Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry and Ryan Kesler are bottled up at the top of this team in scoring and are each now the headliners of different lines. While none of them have been particularly hot down the stretch, they all do see plenty of playing time on the power-play which should bode well for them tonight considering Arizona’s poor 76.8% penalty kill. Corey Perry has dished out four assists in those three previous games against the Coyotes and is joined by Rickard Rakell (who happens to lead the team with 22 goals) at even strength. Meanwhile, Jakob Silfverberg is in the midst of the best offensive season of his young career and he’s clearly enjoying the chance to play alongside Getzlaf (and Ondrej Kase) on the top forward line. On defense, Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen run the show from the point of the Duck’s top power-play unit and that makes them terrific options considering the poor Arizona penalty kill. If you’re in need of some salary relief, Hampus Lindholm also sees a healthy dose of playing time with the man advantage and he’s picked up two goals and three assists in eight games this month.
Arizona has admittedly played much better down the stretch, but this is still an NHL team void of much talent, their advanced metrics still show glaring weaknesses across the board, and they simply have no real motivation to win games down the stretch. Anaheim has outscored them by an 11-3 margin in their three prior meetings this season and I’m not expecting things to be much different this time around. With that said, it’s a two-game slate so everyone is in play and there is the fact that Arizona has been much better on home ice (while Anaheim has struggled on the road). If i’m targeting Arizona ever, the first player on my list is Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He’s racked up 33 points in 57 games from the Arizona blue-line and is one of the main pieces the Arizona front-office should be building their future around. OEL has scored one goal and added six assists in his last eight games and is a near lock to approach 25+ minutes of ice-time tonight. Up-front, the trio of Max Domi, Martin Hanzal and Radim Vrbata is easily the most dangerous forward line Dave Tippett has at his disposal. Vrbata leads the team with 40 points in 57 games and his 174 shots on goal is a fantasy asset. While those three will likely see a heavy dose of Ryan Kesler suffocating defense, they still offer the most upside. Alternatively, rookie Christian Dvorak looks to be finally growing accustomed to life in the NHL. He’s quietly posted five goals and three assists in eight games this month and is still very reasonably priced across the industry. Jordan Martinook is another young forward who is coming on strong down the stretch as he’s scored three goals and added a pair of assists over the last four games. If you’re searching for value, they should both be on your radar.
Anaheim Ducks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.55 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -1, 107.05 CP60
Elite Options
Ryan Getzlaf ($52 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.03 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 99.55 PDO
Corey Perry ($59 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.52 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 100.14 PDO
Ryan Kesler ($59 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.73 CF60, 2.81 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Cam Fowler ($59 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.77 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 99.59 PDO
Secondary Options
Rickard Rakell ($48 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 49.82 CF60, 2.38 xGF60, 103.19 PDO
Jakob Silfverberg ($56 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.49 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 102.84 PDO
Sami Vatanen ($50 FD, $4,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.03 CF60, 2.54 xGF60, 101.14 PDO
Hampus Lindholm ($46 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56 CF60, 2.73 xGF60, 101.7 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jonathan Bernier – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Arizona Coyotes
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 45.71 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -24, 116.72 CP60
Elite Options
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($57 FD, $4,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.3 CF60, 2.16 xGF60, 99.59 PDO
Radim Vrbata ($57 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.97 CF60, 2.22 xGF60, 98.72 PDO
Secondary Options
Martin Hanzal ($48 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.8 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 97.92 PDO
Max Domi ($34 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.29 CF60, 2.1 xGF60, 100.4 PDO
Christian Dvorak ($53 FD, $3,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.03 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 104.49 PDO
Jordan Martinook ($52 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.09 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 101.04 PDO
Alex Goligoski ($57 FD, $3,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.88 CF60, 2.2 xGF60, 100.77 PDO
Expected Netminder
Mike Smith – My Ratings (out of 10): 4 Cash, 6 GPP