Risers and Fallers: Volume 3

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I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on. If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.

Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!

RISINGBUT STILL UNDERPRICED

Derek Dietrich, 2B/3B, Miami Marlins

The big news this week was the announcement that Dee Gordon had been busted for PEDs and would serve an 80-game suspension, effective immediately. This is a big blow to Miami’s offense and will make pitchers against them more appealing, but it also creates some intriguing punt plays as the Marlins figure out how to rearrange their order without their leadoff hitter. Dietrich appears to be the biggest gainer, batting leadoff in the first Gordon-less game and third in the next, performing exceptionally well in both. He was just $3,5000 and $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,100 on FanDuel in what were very good matchups, and he qualifies at both second and third on DK.

Dietrich doesn’t do any one thing particularly well. He has a little pop, a little contact ability, and is essentially a league average hitter. The biggest draw is the true platoon split, which is huge; THE BAT projected for roughly the same-sized split as the likes of Ryan Howard, Matt Adams, and Mitch Moreland. At shallow positions with a good price, he’ll be an appealing low-mid-tier option when facing weak right-handers. This week, the Marlins will face Rubby de la Rosa and Jeremy Hellickson, who both fit the bill.

Adeiny Hechavarria, SS, Miami Marlins

While we’ve seen the Marlins face two righties since the Gordon suspension, we’ve yet to see them face a lefty. It seems unlikely Dietrich or Ichiro Suzuki (who has been the other lineup-spot beneficiary—we’ll get to him in a minute) will see starts at the top of the order, which leaves open the question of who will get the gig. There are a few possibilities—including Cole Gillespie, Miguel Rojas, or maybe a rearrangement with Christian Yelich leading off and either J.T. Realmuto or Chris Johnson hitting second or third—but the most intriguing possibility is Hechavarria.

Hech led off a couple times against lefties last year when Gordon had the day off, and he’s priced at just $2,100 on FanDuel and $2,800 on DraftKings. As a shortstop, when the team is facing a weak lefty, he’ll be very interesting. The team is facing Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray this week, but they’re both decent pitchers (Corbin especially), so we may need to wait another week to really see Hech’s value.

Byung-Ho Park, 1B, Minnesota Twins

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Park is a guy I’ve been big on since the offseason, but he began the year batting mostly sixth and seventh, which is just not usable for cash games (which is what I primarily play). He’s now hit fifth in five of the past six games, though, and appears to be settling into the spot with a couple home runs in that span. And really, that’s the draw of Park. His plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired, but his power is massive. Scouts in Asia I spoke with confirmed his ridiculous Korean League numbers, saying that he has some of the best raw power they’ve seen. THE BAT agrees, after translating his KBO numbers. Here’s a list of THE BAT’s top projected home run hitters (among those currently in the majors) on a per contacted ball basis:

1.Giancarlo Stanton
2. Miguel Sano
3.Chris Davis
4.Byung-Ho Park
5.Bryce Harper

That’s elite company for Park to find himself in. Park’s cost is going up, eclipsing $4,000 for the first time on DraftKings on Sunday, but that’s still a bargain when he’s in good matchups. And at $3,000 on FanDuel, he’s very much in play there as well. Going into Minute Maid and U.S. Cellular this week, Park’s power could be on full display.

If nothing else, we should all, as baseball fans, be rooting for Park to establish himself as the game’s premier power threat so he’ll feel comfortable bringing his Korean-league bat-flips to Major League Baseball.

RISINGBUT I’M NOT BUYING

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Miami Marlins

Ichiro batted leadoff the second game after Gordon’s suspension, when Dietrich was moved to third, but I’m not about to start playing him. As much nostalgia is rostering Suzuki will bring you, it’s likely to bring you an inverse amount of money. Suzuki has been hitting well this year (.342 wOBA), but our sample is just 33 plate appearances. Last year he posted a .250 wOBA—third worst in baseball among players with at least 400 plate apperances. And honestly, that shouldn’t be surprising. Suzuki is 42 years old—and closer to the 43 side than 42. The aging curve at such an advanced age is incredibly steep, and it means that we just can’t expect Ichiro to be anything better than a well below-average hitter. And unlike Dietrich, he has a relatively small platoon split, so he doesn’t get that same kind of boost when facing a righty. At a deep position like outfield, I can’t see many scenarios where Ichiro would be a smart choice.

Steven Wright, SP, Boston Red Sox

Wright had a great night on Friday, and he seemed to get a lot more love than I was expecting. I suppose facing the Braves will make any pitcher seem appealing, but I was shocked to see him close to 30% owned in the DraftKings big $25 Double Up. Wright is a good example of the recency bias that runs rampant in DFS. Wright has been pretty mediocre throughout his career, especially when you consider his minor league work, where you’d expect him to be much more dominant than your non-knuckleballer given the lower quality of hitter. Yet, he has an 8.5 K/9 and 1.59 ERA this season. The problem is that this is highly unlikely to represent Wright’s true talent level. Knuckleballers do deviate from their peripherals a bit, but a 4.21 xFIP is never a good thing, and we really should be treating Wright as a below-average pitcher.

Yes, Wright is cheap, and some users reported that THE BAT even recommended him on Friday in the matchup against the Braves (I don’t play much FanDuel), but I have a hard time seeing him as an option most nights, especially when he’s pitching in hitter-friendly Fenway as we move into the spring and summer and temperatures rise. Knuckleballers are notoriously fickle beasts, capable of having great or awful outings. Now that we have a new one on our radar, I plan on doing some research into what the best conditions are for the pitch, but for now I think we have to approach Wright with a great deal of skepticism.

Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals

Roark is coming off a two-start week in which he tallied 21 strikeouts over 14 shutout innings. Unfortunately, this looks like an aberration to me. Roark is a guy I’ve always thought was a solid pitcher, but nothing more. A number-three starter if he becomes the best possible version of himself. He doesn’t have great stuff, so envisioning upside equally what he showed this week is impossible. He throws five pitches, most of which are average offerings, and his bread-and-butter is his sinker. It’s decent sinker, but it’s a sinker. Guys who throw a sinker 50-plus percent of the time don’t strike out 21 batters over 14 innings. They just don’t.

Roark knows how to pitch, how to mix-and-match his offerings and keep hitters off balance. But when Roark was at his best in 2014, his curveball had more bite than it does now, and he was showing pinpoint control. That’s been lacking the past couple years, and even in his two dominating starts this week he still walked five batters. He’ll get groundballs and miss a few bats, but unless he can regain his stellar control, Roark should be treated as an average pitcher going forward, maybe a bit below average.

FALLINGBUT STILL OVERPRICED

Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros

Can someone explain Tyler White to me? Why people seem to like him so much, why his price tag is always the same as legitimately good hitters? I mean, I know he’s facing a relative unknown in Jose Berrios on Monday, but Berrios is a top prospect, and White is priced within $100 of Prince Fielder against R.A. Dickey and Chris Carter against Jered Weaver. And it’s like that every day, despite his posting a sub-.200 wOBA over the past couple weeks. I mean, I know he got off to a great start and his overall numbers look good, but that’s not who he is as a hitter.

Scouts have never seen him as more than a fringe starter at the major league level, a guy who will likely hold his own at the big league level never be a star. His minor league numbers were impressive, but he accumulated fewer than 500 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, and both were in favorable hitting environments. Both his Double-A and Triple-A leagues are the most hitter-friendly for the level. The PCL in particular inflates stats like crazy, and in Double-A he played in a good power park for Corpus Christi. White is certainly a well above-average hitter, and at another position he’d be interesting, but there are too many stars at first base for him to ever to be much of an option in my mind.

FALLINGAND UNDERPRICED

J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers

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It’s funny, you could almost make the case for Martinez in the “Rising” group. After all, with Justin Upton’s early season struggles, J.D. Martinez has moved up from fifth to second in the order this week. As I explained in my first article in regard to Daniel Murphy, there’s a big difference between fifth and second, even if both are covered under the blanket “only play hitters in the one-through-five spot in cash games” rule. The difference between second and fifth is an extra third of a plate appearance per game and 34% more RBI and run opportunities.

Unfortunately, Martinez has gone into a bit of a funk himself, crawling to a .280 wOBA the last two weeks. His salary has fallen from a high of $3,900 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings to a low of $2,900 and $3,500, respectively, despite the rise in the order.

Over the past two weeks he’s been hitting the ball on the ground too much (50% groundball rate), but he’s still hitting line drives (20%) and making hard contact (37%) while maintaining his plate discipline (22% K%, 10% BB%). It’s tough rolling him out there day after day, as I have, and seeing him do so little, but I’m counting on a turnaround soon. When Martinez is right, he’s an elite outfield play most days while hitting second for Detroit. For what he’ll command in salary now, he’ll continue to be an option, especially against weak pitchers like he’ll face this week (i.e. Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer, Martin Perez).

About the Author

DerekCarty
Derek Carty (DerekCarty)

Derek Carty is the creator of THE BAT X (for MLB) and THE BLITZ (for NFL) projection systems, widely considered the gold standard for projections and the driving force behind multiple Milly Maker winners. You may also know him from ESPN.com, from his time on Baseball Tonight and SportsCenter, or from his early career managing the fantasy sections for Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times. While perhaps best known for DFS, he also has an elite track record in both sports betting (career ~13% ROI on thousands of publicly-tracked bets as of the end of the 2023-24 NFL season) and season-long fantasy expert leagues (11 titles while placing in the top 3 in roughly half of all leagues). On the sports betting side, you may recognize his work from EV Analytics, ScoresAndOdds, Covers, and Unabated. For season-long fantasy, THE BAT X is prominently featured at FanGraphs. While known mostly for his analytical skills, he’s also proud to be the only active fantasy or betting analyst to have graduated from MLB’s exclusive Scout School. Follow Carty on Twitter – @DerekCarty