Week 14, In Which Learning Kills It
I dropped out of college.
It wasn’t that I thought college was unimportant – nothing like that. And it certainly was not as though I thought I knew everything I needed to know. Instead, it was just…
Well, you see, I’ve always loved learning. I’m passionate about learning. I’ve never been into video games; I don’t watch a ton of movies; I am not very good at “lounging around.” To me, an enjoyable day entails reading something, studying something, or learning about something new. It’s just the way I am. (Heck, I’m so bad at lounging around, I can’t even stand to remain in sweatpants or basketball shorts for five minutes after I have woken up for the day; I need to shower and throw on a pair of real-life pants or I’ll feel the day is being wasted.)
As passionate as I am about studying and learning new things, however, I have never been particularly good at that fundamental task of, you know, actually studying things I have been instructed to study. For instance: in high school, I read fiction all the time…but I only read a single piece of “required reading” during those four years. It wasn’t as though I did not want to read those assigned books, either; I just didn’t like being told what to read.
In college, it was much of the same: I spent my freshman year mostly skipping classes and studying on my own. It was cool at first, but apparently they don’t let you keep your scholarship if you don’t go to class. After another year and a half of racking up student loan debt for “not going to class,” I realized there were better things I could do with my money. The studying and learning, after all, were going to continue whether I was in college or not.
What do I study these days?
Anything. Everything. My mind is so packed with seemingly useless facts and bits of information, it’s borderline humorous. But while I’m an omnivore of knowledge, the meat and potatoes of my study are, of course, 1) writing, and 2) daily fantasy sports.
Yes. Daily fantasy sports.
“Why did you repeat that, Jordan? Of course you study daily fantasy sports. We all do.”
You’re right – sorry. Perhaps I did not fully convey exactly what I meant.
When I say I “study daily fantasy sports,” I don’t just mean I spend a good 40 hours each week during NFL season watching game film and learning about different coaches and players and working on roster combinations to find exactly the one I like the most, and I don’t just mean I spend a good 40 hours each week during MLB season watching games and studying sabermetrics and getting to know the game and its players as well as I can. I mean, I do all those things, sure. But I also invest time each week into studying DFS from a strategy perspective.
When I first started playing – in the spring of 2014, on DraftStreet – I concluded each night during the first part of the MLB season by breaking down the rosters of guys like Notorious, BirdWings, BeepImAJeep, RayofHope, Naapstermaan, DinkPiece, STLCardinals84, and others.
Makes sense, right? I was new to DFS, these guys were consistently beating everyone else, and I wanted to study their lineups and see what I could “reverse-engineer” to figure out what they were thinking.
But that was then.
This is now.
Let me convey my confidence for a moment (and call it cockiness if you want), but where do I stand now? If I’m being honest, I consider myself to be one of the best MLB DFS players. I can name a number of guys who are still better than me (consistency is still an issue at times, as I endured a pair of lengthy losing streaks this last summer during which I allowed myself to really get away from the fundamentals of my approach), but I am also comfortable putting myself up near the top; when I’m on my game in MLB, I can compete with anyone. As for NFL…I genuinely believe that on an entry-per-entry basis, I am the best NFL DFS player there is. There – I said it. And what difference does it make if that’s an accurate statement or not? Because of the fact that I am a “one or two lineups per slate” guy, I’ll never have enough volume to be ranked among the top players in RotoGrinders’ rankings (though I will say that I am pretty proud of my top-200 ranking, given the small number of entries I put in play compared to my competition), and because I don’t chase Qualifiers aggressively, I may never take down a live final. But I am 10-3 in double-ups this year after going 14-3 last year, and I have cashed in tournaments at a rate of over 50% in my NFL career.
Maybe you disagree with me. Maybe you think you can name a number of people who are better than me on an entry-per-entry basis, and maybe you even feel that you and I could play head-to-head over a 17-game sample size and you could beat me more times than I beat you. In fact, I hope you feel that way! I hope you have that level of confidence (and we could certainly put that to the test next NFL season if you’d like!). But the point is not whether you agree with me or not; the point is that I am very good at NFL DFS.
You know what I do each weekend these days?
I break down the rosters of guys like Notorious, BirdWings, BeepImAJeep, RayofHope, Naapstermaan, DinkPiece, STLCardinals84, and others. I seek out Condia’s lineup to see what he was thinking; same with Maxdalury; same with 1ucror; same with Bales (you can learn a lot about tournament play by studying Bales’ lineups; oh, you can also learn a lot about tournament play by reading his books). I look at the lineups these guys build because they are my competition, certainly – and I want to know how they think and how they approach things. But I also look at these lineups because I want to reverse-engineer things. I want to ask myself what they were seeing. I want to always find out if there is something new I can learn.
RotoAcademy? – yeah, I’ve read many of the courses on there as well.
Bales’ books? – I’ve read those, too.
I read articles by EMac and Adam Levitan. I set my calendar to read Pat Thorman’s piece on RotoGrinders each week; same goes for GiantBallofOil’s article. I seek out Pat’s work on Pro Football Focus as well, and I read all the other articles on there too. I pay attention to the weekly rankings put out by guys like Pat Thorman and Mike Clay and Scott Pianowski and Pat Daugherty and Sigmund Bloom and many more. I absorb as much knowledge and information as I can. I study.
I try to get better.
This is a long intro. Whatever.
It’s important. So I’m going to keep going.
I’m saying all this to drive toward a particular point, but there is something else I want to bring up first:
On Wednesday, Legal Sports Report (which is a Twitter account you should be following if you want to keep up with the news regarding the state of DFS) linked to a ‘New York Daily News’ article that had been written by a former bookmaker. The author of the article made this statement: “[the argument that DFS is a skill-based game] only applies to the elite group who use sophisticated spreadsheets, complicated math models and automated tools (around 1.3% of players) to consistently win prize money.”
False.
In fact, I would argue that in football, the top “non-projection-model” player(s) would beat the top “algorithm” player(s) on an entry-by-entry basis a good 60% of the time.
I bring this up because if you read something enough times, you start to believe it. And if you start to believe it, it becomes your reality.
This is something that is talked about a lot these days: the idea that only people with advanced knowledge in areas of computer programming and algorithm-building can succeed in DFS. Listen: I don’t even know how to work a spreadsheet. Seriously. You can succeed in NFL without all that – I promise.
“Okay, Jordan, sure – that’s all good and well for you to say, but I can’t invest 40 hours each week into studying DFS and the NFL.”
I absolutely get that! But a couple things worth mentioning here:
1) When I started playing DFS, I couldn’t invest that sort of time, either. I can now, because I invested what time I could invest back then, which eventually led to success…which led to more time available for studying these things…which led to more success…and so on. Start where you can. Do what you can do each day. Watch what happens.
2) (And this may be the coolest thing of all…) You don’t have to invest as much time as I invest! All you need to do is find a few “aggregate sources” – individuals who do spend that much time, and who disseminate their knowledge for your consumption. Three of the best places to gain in-depth knowledge from “aggregate sources” are the NFL Edge article I write each week for RotoGrinders Incentives members, the Matchups column Evan Silva writes on Rotoworld each Friday, and the accumulation of articles, blurbs, and tweets that Adam Levitan writes in various places each week. I would venture to guess that Evan, Adam, and I spend as much time as any writers in the country each week studying the NFL and becoming intimately familiar with each week’s slate of games, and we all do a good job sharing our honest thoughts for public consumption. By reading the thoughts of the three of us each week, you can probably gain a good 120 hours’ worth of research and study in a good two or three hours of weekly reading. What’s more, by reading all three of us, you can weigh our various perspectives – which is extremely important, as reading the thoughts of three different people will help you gain a better balance in your own thoughts than reading the thoughts of just one person. (If you happen to dislike me, or if you dislike Evan and Adam, there are other great writers out there as well; I’m not prescribing you a weekly routine so much as I am saying: You don’t need to have 40 hours each week yourself, you just need to find a few quality, “aggregate sources”).
Speaking of Adam and Evan…
The idea behind this article started with them.
A few weeks back, I was in New York City for the DFS Players Conference. I was presenting at the conference on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. I also had some articles to write that weekend and some team building to work on, and I was staying out late each night with everyone at the conference.
Saturday in particular was rough. I was out late with an assortment of DFS characters (starting out with a big group that included Dan Back, Tommy G, Ohnjz, and others, and that ended with JeffElJefe, FantasyShane, and myself still clinging to the final remnants of the day before admitting defeat and turning in at about five in the morning), and my wife wanted to head down to Central Park at 6:30 in the morning to enjoy the sunrise.
I slept for an hour and a half.
I enjoyed some time with my wife.
I drank a bunch of coffee, and I got ready for my morning presentation.
When I finished my presentation, I planned to grab a bit of sleep before slipping off to the airport and catching a flight to Green Bay for a buddy’s bachelor party that was already in progress (uh…yeah – sleep was going to be important). As great as sleep sounded that morning, however, Adam and Evan were presenting at the Players Conference after me. So I didn’t sleep. Instead, I sat in on their session to see what I could learn.
During that session, Evan talked a bit about the benefits of playing the Thursday-lock NFL slate on FanDuel. He brought up a lot of things I had never thought of before, and the next week, I played that slate for the very first time.
This last week, I played that slate for the second time. I built two teams. One team finished first in the Monster; the other team finished third.
I can’t go into all the points Evan brought up in his presentation about the ways in which one can take advantage of that slate, because if you did not sit in on that session yourself, it probably means you did not pay to go to the Players Conference, and it wouldn’t be fair to those who did pay to go if I shared all Evan’s thoughts with you. But I applied the things I learned from Evan that morning, and that knowledge helped lead to a very profitable weekend – a weekend that would have been far less profitable if I had not skipped sleep to sit in on that session at the Players Conference to see what I could learn.
I rambled a bit. This is not the most well-written piece I have ever given you. It certainly won’t win me any awards. But “rambling” or not, this idea is important:
You’ll never know too much.
You can never study too much.
You should always keep learning.
I’ve mentioned before that I am not good at promoting my RotoAcademy courses, but I’ll say this: My course on Roster Construction is still the most valuable piece of DFS literature I have ever written. I go back and read it myself every few weeks to make sure I am following my own advice. There are only four weeks left in the season? It’s not worth the ten dollars you would have to spend on it? I disagree. After all, it only takes one great weekend to make your season.
I’ll also say this: Even if you don’t read my RotoAcademy course on Roster Construction or don’t pay for Incentives or don’t read Evan Silva’s Matchups column each week or don’t read what Adam Levitan writes or don’t ever buy one of Bales’ books, I really don’t care. We’re not the only people you can learn from, after all. The point is just this:
You should always keep learning.
You can never study too much.
You’ll never know too much.
And as long as you keep this idea in mind – as long as you approach DFS with this type of thinking – you will continue to improve each day. You will continue to get better.
And better.
And better.
WEEK 14
Production note: I’ll be in Puerto Rico the rest of this week. As such, I will not be on GrindersLive this Friday night.
Usually, GrindersLive gives me an opportunity to present my top-to-bottom thoughts on each position – highlighting my favorite plays, presenting some strategy notes, and mentioning a few potential fades. Because I will not be able to do that this week, I am going to use this article as a sort of “GrindersLive replacement” – presenting my thoughts in less of a “here are three solid plays at each position” manner and more of a “here’s how I see the position shaping up” manner. This is probably a far more valuable format, in a fundamental sense, though it comes with the caveat that I am writing this very early on Thursday morning, so my thoughts may change in a few spots as we move deeper into the week (what’s more, if you ask me on Twitter if my thoughts have changed anywhere, you’ll probably receive a response of straight silence, as I won’t be on Twitter much on the beach). I will say, however, that my mid-week departure has accelerated my preparation process this week, so I am much farther along at this point than I normally am by Thursday morning; most of my late-week thoughts should be accurately captured here, even this early in the week.
Enough intro.
Let’s get to it.
HOW I SEE THE QUARTERBACK POSITION
The quarterback position is tough this week. Seriously tough, as there is not a ton to like, with a lot of games that are unlikely to really play well for quarterbacks. There are a few guys I like, though, and perhaps the guy I like most of all is Russell Wilson.
The big concern with Russ – which I expressed last week – is (supposedly) game flow. Two weeks ago against the Steelers, Russ was playing a “funnel defense” (a defense that would stop the run, and would funnel the Seahawks toward the pass), and what’s more, the Steelers are one of the few teams we could reasonably expect to put up points on the Seahawks and force them to stay aggressive. Last week, however, it seemed unlikely that the Vikings would be able to keep pace with the Seahawks; as Seattle is fundamentally a run-first offense, it seemed that we would probably not see a big game from Russ. Surprise! More important than the stat line that Russ put up last week is the fact that the Seahawks remained aggressive through the midway point of the fourth quarter, even in a blowout – continuing to dial up deep passes, and continuing to move the ball through the air even on short, quick passes when they could have instead just run out the clock (they were also still calling designed runs for Russ deep into the fourth quarter). My take at the moment is that the Seahawks are gearing up for the playoffs and are doing everything they can to round into form, which means they will play aggressive offense fairly deep into the game even with a lead. The matchup could not be a whole lot better, as the Ravens have really struggled against the pass while playing solid run defense, and if it holds true that a negative game script will not have a huge, negative impact on Russell’s usage, he’ll be one of the highest-ceiling plays on the weekend. I especially like him in tournaments, as the attention on the Seahawks defense (and the negative correlation between rostering a defense and a quarterback on the same team) will pull people off Russ, as will all the attention on Ben Roethlisberger and Andy Dalton in what should be a shootout in Cincinnati. (Note: you could technically roster Russ and the Seahawks defense together, as we know Russ is likely to be in a negative game script – playing with a decent-sized lead – and by rostering him we are basically saying we don’t think that will matter a whole lot. If this holds true, a big game from the Seahawks defense would not necessarily equate to a bad game from Russ.)
Of course, the safest QB play on the weekend may very well be Roethlisberger, as the Bengals appear as though they may be without Pacman Jones and Leon Hall (two of the best corners in football), and may also be missing stud safety George Iloka. We know that the Steelers love to pass, and we know they are very good at passing; as much as we want to talk about other quarterbacks this week, and as many stats and facts as I can give you to pump up guys like Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor as strong plays, there is a very good reason Big Ben is set to be the chalk this weekend. Also note: Ben should see lower ownership on Thursday-lock contests than he will by Sunday, as a lot of people will probably wait for official injury news to come out of Cincinnati before jumping on board.
Opposite Ben, we also have Andy Dalton. There isn’t a whole lot to say here other than the obvious: the Steelers are good at stopping the run, and the Steelers should put up points against the depleted Bengals’ defense. There is some small cause for concern over the idea that the Bengals may try to protect their defense by pounding the ball, but the likelier scenario is that this game becomes a shootout. If that happens, you will want one of these quarterbacks, and you’ll want some offensive weapons on both sides of the ball.
The other two guys I am really looking toward this week are Blake Bortles at home against the Colts and Tyrod Taylor on the road against the Eagles.
Although the Colts have Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback – which means this may not turn into an actual shootout – the game should be close enough that the Jags will have to pass throughout. I actually expect the Jaguars to win this game, but there will be plenty of passing goodness from Bortles before it’s all said and done, and while he has four great weapons to spread the ball to through the air (Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas, and T.J. Yeldon), you don’t necessarily have to guess who will receive that goodness; you could capture all the upside at once by rostering Bortles.
As for Tyrod: he makes for a really intriguing tournament pivot this week, as LeSean McCoy’s ownership is going to be through the roof, which will leave most people off the Bills’ passing game. With the Bills’ defense decimated by injury, the Eagles could actually be in solid shape to put up some points at home in this one, which could bring us all the fantasy goodness that comes from “aggressive Tyrod.” The ceiling here is as high as any quarterback on the weekend, and the chance to capture low ownership by going here instead of looking to the QBs in Cincinnati is really enticing.
HOW I SEE THE RUNNING BACK POSITION
Speaking of the Bills: the conversation at running back has to start with LeSean McCoy, and I may be on board with the Shady fade in tournaments this weekend. If we take away the “revenge game” narrative, we can say, quite honestly, that this spot is no better or worse than what Shady has had for several weeks. For the last several weeks, he has been one of the best tournament plays on the weekend, as he has had inexplicably low ownership while offering lots of upside. While the upside is certainly intact in this one, the fact that his ownership will suddenly swing all the way in the other direction means that “game theory” dictates he’s better left off your roster in tourneys. (With that said: this is a very good spot for Shady, and there is every reason to believe he puts up another solid game.)
There are a few other obvious guys I could choose to explore (Thomas Rawls in a not-great matchup, but playing with a lead and seeing high volume against the Ravens; DeAngelo Williams as a huge part of the Steelers pass game in addition to being a big part of their run game; Doug Martin in a game where the Bucs should have no problem moving the ball on the ground at home against the Saints; Shaun Draughn in yet another good matchup against the Browns, with a very high floor from his pass game involvement), but instead I am going to look at a few less-obvious options.
The first guy is Matt Forte. You could actually roster Jeremy Langford as well, as he should see a floor of ten touches with upside for 15, but last week seemed to prove two things to us: 1) The Bears still want to feature Forte front and center, and 2) The Bears are set on being a run-first team if they can keep their games close. They should have no problem keeping the game close against the Redskins’ popgun offense, and that means we should see at least 20 touches for Forte once again – in a great matchup – with pass game involvement and a ceiling for upwards of 25 touches. Forte will go severely overlooked due to “running back by committee” concerns, and these concerns seem to be mostly unfounded, making Forte a slightly risky but extremely high-upside tournament option.
The second guy is T.J. Yeldon. I said already that I expect the Jags to win this game, which would mean some extra work for Yeldon down the stretch. People seem to overlook just how involved in the pass game Yeldon is (he’s practically a lock each week for four catches), and he finally saw back-to-back carries at the goal line last week, punching in the second one for a score. This is a great matchup against a Colts run defense that is in rough shape without Jerrell Freeman, which means Yeldon checks off all the boxes I like to look for in NFL DFS: talent, matchup, opportunity, and price.
The third guy is Ryan Mathews. This is, obviously, a play for tournaments only, as we really have no idea what Mathews’ workload will be, and Chip Kelly may very well surprise us all by feeding 20+ carries to DeMarco Murray this week. But it has appeared all season that Ryan Mathews is a much better fit for this offense than Murray, and while he already has an established floor of eight to ten touches when healthy, he’ll have a shot at giving you a tremendous tournament day if you roster him at a low price and low ownership and he ends up being the guy who gets 20 touches this week against a Bills’ run defense that has been an absolute mess since losing Kyle Williams. (That was a long sentence. Take a breather if you need one.)
HOW I SEE THE WIDE RECEIVER POSITION
If Pacman Jones and Leon Hall miss this game, Antonio Brown will be the chalkiest of the chalk – and for good reason. Of course, priced right beside him is Odell Beckham in an equally tasty matchup against the Dolphins on Monday night. On FanDuel, you’ll probably have to choose one or the other (or make some serious “upside” sacrifices elsewhere on your roster), but it’s certainly possible to build a solid lineup on DraftKings while fitting in both of these guys. Because of how obvious these guys are, however – and how thoroughly they are surely being discussed elsewhere – I am going to look at a few other guys. This is a really interesting week for “chasing touchdowns,” and here are some of the guys who boast among the highest touchdown upside on the weekend:
Brandon Marshall: Marshall is facing a Titans squad that got destroyed last weekend by Allen Robinson – who is a very similar receiver to Marshall. Marshall is as close a thing as there is these days to “a lock for double-digit targets,” and that always includes some looks near the end zone.
Alshon Jeffery: Alshon and Cutler had a rough day together last week, but even with Cutler’s attempts being curbed by the “run-first’ approach, Alshon still saw ten targets in regulation (12 targets in all). In every healthy game this year, Alshon has seen 11 or more targets, and just because he has not had a huge game in a while does not mean he cannot have a huge game this weekend. This is a great matchup, he’s a great player, and the opportunity should be there once again.
Mike Evans: I wrote up my in-depth thoughts on this game in the NFL Edge, of course, but I’ll recap a bit here by mentioning a few key points: the Bucs aim to be a run-first team – allowing Jameis Winston to succeed without having to “win the game from wire to wire” on his own; the only time the Bucs really move out of this approach is games in which their opponent puts up a bunch of points and forces them to catch up; the Bucs’ defense has been playing really well lately, and Drew Brees has struggled against Lovie Smith defenses, which means the Saints may not quite turn this into the shootout most are probably expecting. As such, I’m not on Jameis myself this week (he could easily throw for 275 yards with three touchdowns, but the volume is unlikely be there enough to give him the type of floor I really seek), but that does not mean we cannot capture some goodness here. Mike Evans should still see eight to ten targets, with most of these targets coming against Brandon Browner. Evans has multi-touchdown upside in what is the best possible matchup a wide receiver can have.
Sammy Watkins: I like this one as part of the “pivot off LeSean McCoy in tournaments” strategy. Watkins has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL this year, with volume being the only real concern. There is no guarantee that the volume will be there this week, but his yardage and touchdown upside are pretty high even without high volume, and if he happens to see ten to 12 targets in this one, his yardage and touchdown upside will be monstrous.
Martavis Bryant: While everyone looks to Antonio Brown, realize that Bryant is in just as good of a matchup (even better if Pacman Jones and/or Leon Hall play, as those guys will stick to Brown, leaving Bryant to smash a severely overmatched Dre Kirkpatrick), and he will see a good eight to ten targets in this one. Although he only catches about 50% of his targets, his touchdown upside is always enormous, making him a strong play. He’ll probably have decent ownership on DraftKings, where his price is pretty cheap, but he’s priced much higher on FanDuel relative to other appealing receivers, which could leave his ownership low for the upside he provides.
Doug Baldwin: Guess which wide receiver has the 14th-highest receiving grade in Pro Football Focus’ rankings. Seriously, guess. Did you guess Doug Baldwin? Well, you’re wrong. Julian Edelman sits at 14th. Doug Baldwin is right in front of him at 13th (good guess, though – you were close). Baldwin has suddenly become the primary option in the Seahawks’ pass game, seeing six or more targets in five consecutive games. He is being thrown to short, he is being thrown to deep, and he is being thrown to in the red zone. The low price here is likely to scare some people away (it’s funny how that happens), as they will assume he’s a riskier option than he really is. He’s fairly safe, and his touchdown upside is once again high in this matchup with the Ravens.
Allen Hurns: Blake Bortles will throw touchdowns. Those touchdowns will probably go to Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, and/or Julius Thomas. While all three guys are certainly appealing, the Colts managed to really slow down Robinson last time (four catches for 80 yards on 12 targets), while this left Hurns open to go off for 116 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches and 15 targets. Although the Colts certainly don’t want a repeat performance from Hurns, they will also still focus on Robinson first and foremost, as he is the more dangerous of the pair. Hurns is far cheaper than Robinson, and while his floor is a bit lower, his upside is just as high. He makes for a very strong tournament play this weekend.
Finally, there are a few other guys worthy of mention, outside of “touchdown upside.” These are guys who are going to need volume in order to pay off, but all of them should see volume, and will provide a nice floor for catches and yardage, with some touchdown upside thrown in. If you are looking to save money on a safe play with some ceiling in order to pay up elsewhere, these are the guys I would consider: Brian Hartline (things are a little murky if Travis Benjamin returns, with Johnny Manziel under center, but he has become a focal point of this offense, and that’s unlikely to suddenly go away); Anquan Boldin (he’s seen at least nine targets in all three of his games with Blaine Gabbert, and he should have a very high floor – with something like a 7-90-1 ceiling – against Cleveland); Danny Amendola (double-digit targets are pretty much a foregone conclusion, and he may be relied on even more heavily this week with Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler having tougher matchups than he has, and with the Texans and the Patriots both being in the top five in “plays per game” on the season).
HOW I SEE THE TIGHT END POSITION
I spent a lot of time on wide receivers, huh? Don’t worry, I won’t keep you much longer; there is a whole lot less to talk about here.
On FanDuel, where pricing is so bunched up, I would recommend simply determining which guy you think is the best play on the weekend and rostering that guy. In my opinion, that would be Greg Olsen (in a tough matchup with Atlanta…but since when is that a concern for Olsen?), Tyler Eifert (his floor is always a bit lower than I love, but he has the highest upside this weekend with his red zone usage and this game’s shootout potential), or Jordan Reed (the Bears are tough against tight ends, but Reed is used more like a wide receiver anyway, and we can always bank on his targets).
On DraftKings, however – where there is a lot more separation between the cheap guys and the expensive guys at this position – there are a few cheap guys you could also look to:
Scott Chandler: Chandler once again has a tough matchup, but that didn’t stop him last week. He’ll get six or seven targets and some red zone looks, giving him a nice ceiling for production.
Will Tye: Tye has developed into a nice option for the Giants, giving them a downfield weapon besides Odell Beckham who can actually catch the ball.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: The Saints are the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends, and ASJ saw six targets in his return to the field last week in only 21 snaps. Although I do not expect more than 30 to 35 passes from Jameis this week, a good six to eight could easily go to ASJ, giving him a high ceiling against the Saints.
HOW I SEE DEFENSE
I don’t usually talk about defense in this article, but since we always touch on defense on GrindersLive – and since I’m using this article as my GrindersLive replacement – I’m going to run through a few thoughts here.
The Seahawks are the obvious chalk play, as we were able to capture a pick six the last two weeks against Matt Schaub by rostering the weak defenses of the Browns and the Dolphins, and we may as well assume there is a high likelihood of the Seahawks taking a pick to the house as well.
With that said, it’s also worth pointing out that what we really want from a defense are the “points that don’t get taken away” – sacks, turnovers, and touchdowns, with touchdowns being the biggest one. Because defensive touchdowns are fundamentally unpredictable (we know that a high likelihood of turnovers and sacks leads to a higher likelihood of defensive touchdowns, but we cannot predict them beyond that), this does bring game theory heavily into play. If the Seahawks have a solid game (say a couple sacks – for what it’s worth, the Ravens do give up among the fewest sacks in the NFL – and a couple turnovers, with maybe 14 points allowed), but fail to score a touchdown, and if you roster the defense that puts up a much higher score at much lower ownership, you could gain a nice edge in tournaments.
The main defenses I see as potential pivots are:
The Chiefs, at home, against a Chargers offense that cannot run the ball and may be without Stevie Johnson.
The Packers, at home, against Matt Cassel and the Cowboys.
The Lions, on the road, but facing Case Keenum and his ragtag group of traveling gypsies pretending to be an NFL offense.
The Buccaneers – yes, those Buccaneers – at home against Drew Brees, who has made a habit of tossing multiple interceptions in games against Lovie Smith’s defenses. (Note: this is not a safe play, and is not recommended for cash games. But there is some tournament intrigue, as you’ll have very low ownership going here with you.)
And honestly, I don’t need to write anything clever in closing. I’ve written enough.