Week 9 NFL, In Which We Theo
Sorry, Indians fans. You might want to look away.
Today, we talk about Theo Epstein.
Before we get to Theo, though, I should say to Tribe fans: congratulations. You had an awesome season. You had a far more awesome season than anyone but maybe your fellow Indians fans could have seen coming. (I don’t know – how similar are Indians fans to Red Sox fans? If you’re anything like us – if you have let the years of “not winning it all” get to you, to a point where you are conditioned to feel pessimism about your team at even the best of times – even you probably did not see a season like this coming.) I’ll also say: You still have Terry Francona. And that means you’ll be right back in the mix next year.
But today is not your day. Today, the Cubs are champs. And sure, there are a lot of reasons why – but today, we talk about one reason in particular.
_____
We could start this journey at any number of places, but we may as well begin in 1984, when the Boston Red Sox were in need of first base help and traded Dennis Eckersley – one of the greatest pitchers in history (and one of the greatest baseball announcers of our time) – to the Cubs for All Star Bill Buckner. You probably know the next part of the story.
In 1986, the Red Sox reached the World Series, and they found themselves up three games to two against the favored Mets…and found themselves with a two run lead, with two outs and bases empty in the bottom of the 10th inning.
The Mets then singled, singled, singled, and tied the game on a wild pitch. The next batter was Mookie Wilson. He hit a slow roller to Buckner that should have ended the inning and sent the game to the 11th, but the ball rolled through Buckner’s legs, the Mets won, and the Mets returned to the field the next night and won again to take the Series.
Back home in Boston, a 12-year-old Theo Epstein was crushed.
_____
A year earlier, Theo’s favorite video game (Micro League Baseball, on the Apple II computer) released a General Manager disk that made it possible to trade players and build new rosters. That same year, Theo got ahold of his first copy of Bill James’ historical abstract.
When that ball rolled through Buckner’s legs, Theo’s enjoyment of General Manager moves and advanced baseball analytics clicked with his Red Sox fandom, and he realized what he wanted to be when he grew up. He wanted to build baseball teams. He wanted to be the man who would bring championships where once there had been nothing but disappointment.
About a decade later, Theo was attending Yale – and rather than using this elite education to pursue anything resembling a conventional path, he applied for baseball internships. He spent some time with the Orioles. He spent some time with the Padres. Then, at the age of 28 – after Billy Beane turned down the opportunity to run the Boston Red Sox – Theo became the youngest General Manager in Major League Baseball.
Two years later, the Red Sox won the World Series.
Three years after that, they won again.
Four years after that, Theo left – and he took over the Chicago Cubs.
_____
We could have taken any number of paths to reach that point, really. We could have talked about how Theo would never have left the Red Sox if not for his conflicts with the rest of the front office – the owner in John Henry and the right-hand-man in Larry Lucchino who all but required Theo to make splashy free agent signings and to trade the top prospects (Anthony Rizzo, anyone?) he had drafted and developed, in order to boost December ticket sales and in-season television ratings. The higher-ups on the Red Sox commissioned studies (true story) to identify the sorts of players that viewers wanted to watch. They showed these studies to Theo and charged him with finding such players; he could figure out what sorts of players he needed to win after that. If not for all that, Theo may never have left the Sox, and may never have joined the Cubs.
Heck, we could also talk about Pearl Jam – Theo’s favorite band as a teenager. When Theo grew up, he became friends with Eddie Vedder (the lead singer of Pearl Jam). When Theo left the Red Sox for a few months in 2005 (again: conflicts with the Red Sox brass), he toured with Pearl Jam for a bit – joining them on stage to play alongside them in concert (also a true story). Vedder hung around the Sox back then, but he was a lifelong Cubs fan. Would Theo have jumped ship and joined the Cubs if the lead singer of his favorite band (with whom he then became good friends) had been a fan of a different team? Who knows – but I’ll venture to guess Eddie Vedder at least mentioned to Theo one or two (or a hundred) times that he should run the Cubs.
We could talk about the Astros drafting Mark Appel with the number one overall pick in the 2013 draft – leaving Kris Bryant available to the Cubs at number two. We could talk about Kyle Schwarber still being available to the Cubs in the fourth round a year later (and then tearing his ACL in the second game of the 2016 season and rehabbing like crazy to be ready just in time for the World Series). Or we could talk about the Tampa Bay Rays’ General Manager stepping down and allowing Joe Maddon to exercise a random opt-out clause that could only be exercised if the General Manager left, which freed him up to manage the Cubs.
We could talk about a lot of things. A ridiculous number of things. Everything had to go just right.
But if the Cubs had never sent Buckner to the Red Sox in 1984, that ball would never have gone through his legs in the World Series, and Theo may never have started on his path to becoming a General Manager, and the Red Sox and Cubs might still be searching for that long-elusive title.
Thanks, Theo.
And thanks, Buckner.
_____
In the same way that a lot of things in the past had to go just right in order for Theo Epstein to join the Cubs, and for the Cubs to win the World Series this year (which is not even to spend time talking about all the things that had to go just right in-season, and in the playoffs, and in those last few World Series games, in order for the Cubs to close things out), a lot of things have to go just right in order to have a huge weekend in NFL DFS. But here’s the beauty:
If your process is sound, you’ll get there.
It can be discouraging, at times, to run into a few bad weeks in a row. But this is why I always encourage readers to assess their rosters by examining their process, rather than by examining their results.
Last week, in this article, we talked about Derek Carr. We talked about Josh McCown. We talked about Devonta Freeman and Theo Riddick and Terrelle Pryor and Amari Cooper and Davante Adams and Rob Gronkowski. I am pretty sure we hit on every single player who topped 20 FanDuel points or 25 DraftKings points last week.
But we also talked about Christine Michael and Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. We talked about Julio Jones. We talked about Jimmy Graham.
If you listened to the right picks from last week, you left Sunday feeling like this was the most valuable article you had read all season. If you played the wrong picks from last week, you may not even be reading this article again.
But that’s the thing about DFS: the process can be correct, and the plays can still end up wrong. The process that led me to like DeAndre Hopkins last week was the same process that led me to like Amari Cooper. You see?
You are guaranteed to have weeks in which the process is good and the results are bad. But if you continue to trust the process and make good picks week in and week out, you are going to be profitable over time. That’s a guarantee as well.
So let’s dive into this week – with the same format as last week: examining a few of the plays that are standing out to me at each position, in a bit of a free-form manner.
_____
QUARTERBACKS
The quarterback position is thin this week. Let’s start from the bottom and work our way up – looking at a couple of the off-the-board guys who appeal to me as I write this on Friday, and working quickly toward the guys I am likelier to be choosing amongst myself.
First off, we have to mention “quarterback against the Saints.” The problem is that the quarterback against the Saints this week is Colin Kaepernick. In this week’s NFL Edge, we reached a projection of about 35 pass attempts for Kaep this week – though with the obvious disclaimer that he can only be comfortably projected to complete about 50% of those passes (and that’s if he’s really “on”). This limits his yardage upside through the air, and it limits his chances of passing for more than one score. With that said, Kaep should be a lock for a good 60 yards on the ground (with plenty of upside for more), and the Saints have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL. In a point-per-dollar sense, I see Kaep as one of the highest-floor plays on the weekend, though I do have some concerns about his ceiling.
The Dallas Cowboys have the lowest passing play percentage in the NFL, and in a game they should control, it is highly unlikely that Dak Prescott throws more than 30 times. But he has been one of the most effective passers in the NFL, and by DVOA, the Cowboys’ pass offense against the Browns’ pass defense is the second most lopsided matchup of the entire weekend (behind only the Cowboys’ run offense against the Browns’ run defense). I like Dak for a low-volume, high-efficiency game. It will be tough for him to put up a truly monstrous weekend, but I still like him a lot.
Philip Rivers gets to take on a Titans defense that is solid against the run and poor against the pass. I am waiting on some sort of positive news regarding the health of Rivers’ pass catchers, because I cannot go here if Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are both going to be running around at three-quarters strength. But if those guys will be healthy, I certainly like this spot.
And now, we get to the big guns: Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers gets to take on a weak Indianapolis pass defense (29th in DVOA, 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt), and given the state of the Packers’ backfield, we can expect a boatload of passing. Rodgers also leads the NFL in red zone pass attempts. The Packers have the highest Vegas-implied total on the board, and there is a good chance Rodgers will be part of all the non-kicking points his team scores.
Andrew Luck will be playing catch-up on the other side of this game, and while the Packers have a decent pass defense (16th in DVOA), Luck has looked good lately, and I expect him to keep pace with Rodgers as the Packers’ stout run defense funnels action toward the air and gives Luck a massive volume floor.
And of course, we have Drew Brees away from the Superdome, where the masses are afraid to pull the trigger. Since the week began, the Saints’ Vegas-implied total has jumped up a point – putting the Saints just a couple ticks below the Packers. While the ground game will also be a part of the Saints’ plans, Brees is almost always a lock for 40+ pass attempts – and that should be the case once again.
RUNNING BACKS
Editor’s Note: Spencer Ware has been ruled OUT for Week 9.
As always, I do not mind being a bit more chalky at running back, as this position carries less volatility than the wide receiver position. That’s another way of saying: I do not at all mind playing Ezekiel Elliott and Charcandrick West (assuming Spencer Ware is out).
If you want a reason to fade Zeke…well, I’m not sure I can give you one. Every team that has faced the Browns this year has scored at least 25 points, and the Cowboys are the number one overall offense in the NFL (DVOA). They should score at least four touchdowns, and it’s likely that Zeke will have a couple of them.
If you want a reason to fade Charcandrick, I’ll point out that Andy Reid almost never gives his lead back more than 20 touches. I know, I know – the rebuttal here is that the Chiefs usually have at least one capable backup, and now they have none. But Andy Reid does not think like you and I think. We have a long track record of him using Chiefs running backs in a maddening manner, and I would not at all be surprised if Charcandrick only sees 20 touches in this one. The Jaguars are weak against the run, but they do rank first in the NFL at covering running backs out of the backfield (DVOA), which lowers Charcandrick’s receiving ceiling quite a bit. Obviously, he is a strong play; but that’s just to point out that there are paths by which he could end up disappointing.
While providing the disclaimer that I am a good day-and-a-half behind my normal process this week (it’s been something of a crazy/busy week…), and am therefore less certain at this point in the week than I typically would be, in regards to exactly where I will end up with my roster, I currently expect that there is a narrow field of running backs I will be comfortable shifting to if I move away from either of those two guys.
One is Le’Veon Bell. He’s not as good of a play as Zeke, but against a strong Ravens run defense, Bell should end up being heavily used in the pass game once again. He could easily catch eight to 10 passes in this one, which gives him a pretty monstrous floor.
Matt Forte played only 60% of the Jets’ snaps last week…but he had 65% of the team’s usage when he was on the field. He also ranks fourth in the NFL in carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard-line, and second in the NFL in carries inside the five. Against a Dolphins team that can be beat on the ground, he’s a solid option.
The Raiders have continued to play poor run defense, and Devontae Booker should see 20+ touches again. His pass game involvement last week was particularly noteworthy (six targets), making him a strong option once again.
Speaking of pass game involvement: Since the Rams decided to make a concerted effort to get Todd Gurley the ball in space, he has seen target totals of five, five, four, and seven. While the Panthers have a solid run defense and the Rams have one of the worst run-blocking lines in football, Gurley could end up being a tournament X-factor, with his pass game involvement and his goal-line usage, giving him a sneaky-high ceiling (though, of course, with a lower floor than any other back mentioned).
The best way to attack the Vikings is by throwing to running backs out of the backfield; the Vikes shut down perimeter receivers, and the Lions are a pass-dominant team, which means we should see eight or more targets for Theo Riddick once again (he also has exactly 10 or 11 carries in five straight games). Riddick is a strong play that is likely to go overlooked.
Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower project to be in a messy backfield split…but the Saints project to run about 75 plays this week, and to have a lead. It’s not outside the realm of serious possibilities that the Saints could pile up a good 35 rushing attempts in this one – and if that happens, both guys could end up being valuable against the 49ers’ league-worst run defense. (I also expect Ingram to “run angry” this week, after being benched in Week 8. He’s a nice tourney play.)
WIDE RECEIVERS
First off: the game in Green Bay, and the New Orleans wide receivers, represent the two main places to look for production. We may not have full clarity on the Packers’ wide receivers until Sunday morning, but whichever guy is going to be lined up primarily in the backfield is an elite option. And frankly, all three of the guys at wide receiver will be strong options as well. (We do add a bit of clarity if Vontae Davis is cleared from his concussion in time for Sunday’s game, as this will likely put him in shadow coverage of Jordy Nelson – leaving more targets to go to Davante Adams and Randall Cobb). On the other side, it looks like T.Y. Hilton will play, making both him and Donte Moncrief strong bets for eight or more targets apiece, and for solid production as the Colts aim to keep up through the air.
On the Saints, I love that Michael Thomas is still priced like a number three wide receiver, but is used by the Saints like a number one guy. He leads the Saints in targets over their last five games, and he leads the team in red zone targets on the season. I would not argue against any Saints pass catcher, but Thomas is the guy for me.
Dez Bryant has received over 37% of Dak’s throws over his last two full games. If that continues this week, he’ll see a good 10 targets even if Dak stays under 30 total throws – which is more than enough to smash in this matchup. Dez will likely go overlooked with all the attention on Zeke, but he’s a great bet for production this week.
On the other side of this game, the Cowboys have lost Morris Claiborne and Barry Church in the secondary, while the Browns are returning Corey Coleman. Coleman has the talent to post the highest-scoring game on the weekend, and the Browns are going to have to pass in this game to keep pace with the Cowboys. I like Terrelle Pryor in this spot as well, but Coleman really stands out as a strong play this week.
One of the quieter strong plays on the weekend is “Broncos wide receivers.” While Trevor Siemian is not tasked with throwing the ball a ton, he does have a very concentrated target distribution. Through eight games this year, Demaryius Thomas has only one game below seven targets (and he has seen double-digit looks in three consecutive games), while Emmanuel Sanders has only one game below eight targets (with double-digit looks in three games this season as well). Emmanuel is also the NFL’s leader in targets inside the 10-yard-line, while Demaryius is up there in this category. Each guy is a strong play against the Raiders this weekend.
There seems to be concern among the Chargers’ beat writers that neither Tyrell Williams nor Travis Benjamin is truly healthy. If this is the case, we can expect a spike in targets for Dontrelle Inman – perhaps pushing for close to double-digit looks this week. Against a Titans defense that has been susceptible over the middle, and has been susceptible to big plays from time to time, this is a solid spot for a sneaky-high ceiling.
The target distribution on the Vikings is a bit unpredictable, and this is not an aggressive offense, but Cordarrelle Patterson and Stefon Diggs are both in play this week against a Lions defense that puts almost any wide receiver in play. If Patterson gets seven looks or if Diggs sees nine or ten looks, there is a lot of potential upside to be found in this spot.
Finally, realize that elite wide receivers can do well even in difficult matchups. The Rams rank fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt, with strong play from safeties Maurice Alexander and T.J. McDonald preventing teams from picking up big chunks of yards through the air; this certainly hurts the Panthers, who prefer to take shots downfield, but we should still see plenty of targets in this one for Kelvin Benjamin, and he could post a really solid game. And while the Eagles rank first in DVOA against the pass, Odell Beckham ranks eighth in the NFL in targets per game, and he is one of only two receivers with at least eight looks in every game this season; with this kind of volume, he’ll have opportunities to bust a big play, and if he does so, he’ll almost certainly be doing it at low tournament ownership.
TIGHT ENDS
We should see pretty concentrated ownership at this position, with most people flocking to Kyle Rudolph and Delanie Walker. Delanie is always in play, as the main pass game weapon for the Titans, and as a guy who can do things with the ball in his hands. Rudolph is not quite as exciting, as a subpar athlete with no after-the-catch upside, but he has been hogging targets from Sam Bradford this season (averaging nearly eight targets per game), and he is an excellent red zone weapon. He also just so happens to be taking on one of the worst defenses in football against the tight end.
There is not a ton to love elsewhere. Greg Olsen could post a nice game even in a tough matchup against the Rams. Antonio Gates is basically the exact same thing Kyle Rudolph is: a target magnet in a good matchup with no after-catch upside and solid end zone usage. According to DVOA, Lance Kendricks has an even better matchup than Rudolph (the Lions rank 27th against the tight end; the Panthers rank 28th). Kendricks has seen seven or more targets in three of the Rams’ last four games. And with the Cowboys focused more this season on limiting outside receivers, they have left the middle of the field open more than normal – ranking 31st in DVOA against the tight end, and making Gary Barnidge an excellent play a week after he burned a lot of people.
_____
There you have it! The process above is good. Now, let’s put things together – and let’s hope the ball rolls through Buckner’s legs and we end up with just the right results.